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Prey's debut sales in the UK seem quite low

Hasney

Member
You market based on your sales expectations at launch, not when you first greenlight the game.

Dishonored 1 seemed to accumulate around 4-5+ million sales over time, which is about when they greenlit Prey.

Dishonored 2 will do maybe half that, and Prey is going to struggle to get past 1 to maybe 1.5 million.

Games have such long development cycles these days that the market can completely change out from under you between when you start a project and when you ship it.

It always seemed strange to me that the marketing budget for Dishonored 2 went down from the original, at least from what I saw here in the UK. Either they have some super smart analysts, or it was the original marketing along with reviews coming out beforehand that helped it.

The review copies not going out just seems strange as a blanket policy. Sure, I can see not doing it with Elder Scrolls, Fallout and Doom as they will get coverage and hype without it. But a confusingly named reboot with no marketing or reviews seems like a very silly thing to do.
 
Well I mean, ZeniMax owns them and is still hiring for them, so I assume they're just changing the direction of the studios (longer term, I expect Dishonored 2 standalone DLC) instead of shuttering them.

I'd hope that they won't be shuttered. Arkane has become one of my favorite developers.
 

Gator86

Member
Really surprised. May doesn't have many major releases and the were releasing footage for it every few days for months. Seemed like it had a strong online marketing push. Game is excellent too.

Hopefully once reviews get out things will change.

Seems like there's weak demand for the genre and the past few months have seen a console launch and a relentless barrage of games, on PS4 at least. Wallets might be a little light right now. The online push was surprisingly strong though.
 

TheRed

Member
Hope this doesn't lead to them gutting Arcane after DH2 and this haven't sold well. Both great games that needed smarter marketing and early reviews.
 

Fury451

Banned
Prey is already out?


Yes. You didn't know that though because:

0 marketing by my observations.

Also no early reviews because Bethesda.

It's almost a stealth release tbh. I pre-ordered it last week and was legitimately surprised when it showed up Friday. Thought we were a week or more out still.

Saddest part is that, like Dishonored 2, it's super good and a masterclass in world building and game design (though imo not quite as strong as Dishonored 2). It's also basically System Shock 3.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
That's good to hear, but I have to wonder about what that direction is.

Shortly before launch, Arkane gave kind of an odd interview where they said this, which sounds like they expected the game to not do well and were already thinking about the future: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-04-07-its-not-the-michael-bay-of-games

"Even if a pure immersive sim--whatever that is--does [fade], we are seeing other kinds of games," Bare said. "There's a philosophy behind the immersive sim, and other kinds of games that aren't even first-person games do those things. Some do them consciously. Some are just unrelated to immersive sims but have those properties. So we're seeing that stuff in other games. There are more first-person games right now that have interesting RPG mechanics layered onto them that allow more player expression. The Bethesda guys have been doing that stuff for the same amount of time. Skyrim and Fallout have that cool open-ended design to them."
 

Pagusas

Elden Member
after reading about it on GAF just this week (and having no idea it existed otherwise, except for some news a year ago about the Prey name being used for a new game unrelated to the old ones), I figured it was sent to die. Why else would it be given 0 marketing budget?
 

Anno

Member
Have we had any console numbers on DH2 after the first week of UK sales? Generally for AAA games at this point I assume the PS4 version has sold at least as well as the Steam version if not better. But maybe this is a more PC focused genre even with the technical issues.
 
Still have no idea what type of game it is based on the one trailer a first person horror puzzle thing?

Maybe if reviews were out and glowing I'd have cared to find out.
 
Still have no idea what type of game it is based on the one trailer s first person horror puzzle thing?

Maybe if reviews were out and glowing I'd have cared to find out.

Impressions on this forum are glowing, with many calling it a GotY contender. Which says something in a year as strong as this one.
 

velociraptor

Junior Member
Short version:
- Prey seems to have debuted with between 17K to maybe 25K sales in the UK.
- This is much lower than Dishonored 1, Dishonored 2, or any other recent Bethesda game this generation. You can think of it as half of Dishonored 2 or a third of Dishonored 1 if that helps approximate.
- There's a lot of data in the quotes below if you want to compare more specifically.
- For reference, Deus Ex: Mankind Divided debuted with ~38K, and that got the series killed.

Expanded information:




The 71% drop week over week which was used to create this ceiling came from here: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...rt-8-deluxe-holds-off-prey-in-uk-boxed-charts
Deus Ex is dead?
 

Kyoufu

Member
You market based on your sales expectations at launch, not when you first greenlight the game.

Dishonored 1 seemed to accumulate around 4-5+ million sales over time, which is about when they greenlit Prey.

Dishonored 2 will do maybe half that, and Prey is going to struggle to get past 1 to maybe 1.5 million.

Games have such long development cycles these days that the market can completely change out from under you between when you start a project and when you ship it.

This still doesn't answer my question of "Why are you not giving your game a chance?".

I just don't see the sense in stealth releasing a game that is actually pretty good and isn't a niche genre.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Deus Ex is dead?

Eidos Montreal's current project is Shadow of the Tomb Raider, and their next two projects are assisting with Crystal Dynamics' Avengers game, and making Guardians of the Galaxy, with reports suggesting Deus Ex is far away on the back burner at best.
 

El_Chino

Member
Expected but a damn shame nevertheless. It's a really immersive game that deserves much better. My candidate for GOTY thus far.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
This still doesn't answer my question of "Why are you not giving your game a chance?".

I just don't see the sense in stealth releasing a game that is actually pretty good and isn't a niche genre.

Essentially Bethesda disagrees with the last part of your last sentence and thinks that more marketing money will simply cause them to lose more money overall.
 

GlamFM

Banned
Really sorry for Arkane, but I think it's their publishers fault to some extent.

That being said I refunded my copy this morning.
 

Gurish

Member
I get a feeling that this is going to follow in the steps of Doom and gradually sell more through word of mouth.

I also think that Bethesda's refusal to send review copies did this game a disservice. That strategy works for popular franchises like Fallout and Dishonored but for an unknown quantity like Prey I think it hurts more than helps.

It didn't work for Dishonored 2, another game that desperately needed the (very) high reviews hype and Bethesda blew it, it sold poorly.

It works only for mega franchises like Fallout and Elder Scroll, a game like Fallout 4 only needed a good demonstration in E3 to get to crazy hype level , remember the days when Pornhub videos of leaked Fallout 4 gameplay got millions of views? the no review policy was very smart there as it could only hurt the hype which it retrospectively would since reviews were pretty disappointing for such an anticipated title, when the fan base realized the game is pretty disappointing as well it was far too late and millions of copies were already sold, that was a smart move by Beth but for Prey, Dishonored 2 and even Doom in a way, it was stupid as hell.
 

Gator86

Member
Eidos Montreal's current project is Shadow of the Tomb Raider, and their next two projects are assisting with Crystal Dynamics' Avengers game, and making Guardians of the Galaxy, with reports suggesting Deus Ex is far away on the back burner at best.

I'm still confused as hell why Crystal got pulled off Tomb Raider which they are great at and familiar with to do another franchise while Montreal got thrown on Tomb Raider which they could easily fuck up. None of this seems like good management unless I'm missing something. How is any of this getting maximum value of these studios?
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I'm still confused as hell why Crystal got pulled off Tomb Raider which they are great at and familiar with to do another franchise while Montreal got thrown on Tomb Raider which they could easily fuck up. None of this seems like good management unless I'm missing something. How is any of this getting maximum value of these studios?

They didn't. Square Enix is making alternating Tomb Raider games a la Call of Duty.

This was also going to happen with Hitman between IO Interactive and Square Enix Montreal before the latter studio got converted into a mobile development studio.
 
A brilliant game that had zero fucking marketing in the UK. If I didn't check out the OT I wouldn't have even known it was out.

It's even more frustrating having played about 10 hours of it and it's an amazing experience, knowing that a lot of people will have passed on it.
 

Szadek

Member
No marketing and no pre-release reviews. Not a great combo for a series people don't seem to know even existed.
And the people that do remember are probably mad that this ahs nothing to do with the other games.

Bethesda review policy is hilariously stupid.
"Let's make good games and not let reviwers tell people about them at or before release."
 

Jakoo

Member
Reviews are out and they are glowing.

It's got 87 on Opencritic at the moment.

I understand this, but this game was released on Friday with no advanced copies sent to the press.

Its understandable to be a bit skeptical of the reviews when critics have only had a weekend to consume it. I know I am.
 

Sn4ke_911

If I ever post something in Japanese which I don't understand, please BAN me.
Bethesda is such a piece of shit company. First they kill off Human Head Studios just because they didn't want to be owned by those assholes and now it seems Arkane is next.

it's a shame since Prey is a great game.
 
From that data in the OP - I'm surprised Doom launched to lower numbers than Wolfenstein and Dishonoured 2.

But yeah; no surprise on Prey. Haven't seen any marketing for it at all; if I wasn't a regular here I wouldn't know it was out. Was in a supermarket today and it didn't even look like they had it in stock, and there were no empty spaces to suggest it had sold out.
 
Still have no idea what type of game it is based on the one trailer a first person horror puzzle thing?

Maybe if reviews were out and glowing I'd have cared to find out.
It's basically Bioshock on steroids and it's amazing

Which makes this such a pity. Zero marketing, friday launch, Bethesda can't help but be fucking assholes when it comes to the Prey franchise it seems.
 

Gurish

Member
And the people that do remember are probably mad that this ahs nothing to do with the other games.

Bethesda review policy is hilariously stupid.
"Let's make good games and not let reviwers tell people about them at or before release."

It is really dumb, I thought Prey was pretty bad actually until reviews and gamers impressions started to come out, why would Bethesda do that for their smaller but very quality franchises that need every push they can get it beyond me.
 

Gator86

Member
They didn't. Square Enix is making alternating Tomb Raider games a la Call of Duty.

This was also going to happen with Hitman between IO Interactive and Square Enix Montreal before the latter studio got converted into a mobile development studio.

That Tomb Raider idea is insane and I don't see any way it doesn't lead to bad things for the franchise. Hope I'm wrong. That Hitman idea seemed equally bad. Is there a good example of alternating titles with devs other than COD, which results in games feeling wildly different with each iteration along with fluctuating features and quality?
 
Short version:
- Prey seems to have debuted with between 17K to maybe 25K sales in the UK.
- This is much lower than Dishonored 1, Dishonored 2, or any other recent Bethesda game this generation. You can think of it as half of Dishonored 2 or a third of Dishonored 1 if that helps approximate.
- There's a lot of data in the quotes below if you want to compare more specifically.
- For reference, Deus Ex: Mankind Divided debuted with ~38K, and that got the series killed.

Expanded information:




The 71% drop week over week which was used to create this ceiling came from here: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...rt-8-deluxe-holds-off-prey-in-uk-boxed-charts

Deus Ex is killed? I know sales were lower than Human Revolution, but I assumed Deus Ex was not a big budget game compared to Tomb Raider and Final Fantasy, so they can recover their losses.
 

sirap

Member
Let's hope the game has long legs and continues selling well. It's not a world beater but word of mouth has been very positive.

I really love immersive sims and its a shame that these types of games aren't more popular with the masses.
 

Hasney

Member
From that data in the OP - I'm surprised Doom launched to lower numbers than Wolfenstein and Dishonoured 2.

Dishonoured 1. It outsold 2. Wolfenstien and the original Dishonoured had review copies and Doom didn't, but did get a very underwhelming multiplayer beta. I'm really not surprised because how good the single player was came as a bit of a surprise.
 
They should've sent out review copies. The game is great, and all of their recent games have been, so this review policy makes no sense.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
That Tomb Raider idea is insane and I don't see any way it doesn't lead to bad things for the franchise. Hope I'm wrong. That Hitman idea seemed equally bad. Is there a good example of alternating titles with devs other than COD, which results in games feeling wildly different with each iteration along with fluctuating features and quality?

Tomb Raider is also a series that is clearly out of sync with the market, so we're going to have a bad UK sales thread about Shadow of the Tomb Raider as well, but basically these were decisions made ages ago.

When Matsuda took over as CEO, he had basically every Square Enix new IP canceled in favor of existing titles. This caused IO interactive to lose half its staff, Crystal Dynamics to lose their new IP, and Eidos Montreal to lose their new IP and go into a variety of turmoil as they had to quickly get staff on a new project (which became Tomb Raider, along with canceling Obsidian's Deus Ex game and taking Deus Ex entirely in house).

These days Matsuda changed his mind as Square Enix's existing IPs all started facing significant sales headwinds, so now they're all on new IPs, whether they be based on licenses (see Marvel), or actually new (which is what Tabata's team of Final Fantasy 15 fame is supposed to be doing).

Which part of the dart board Matsuda will hit tomorrow is currently unclear, so for now, their focus will be on new IPs and Japanese eSports for new initiatives.
 

Xion_Stellar

People should stop referencing data that makes me feel uncomfortable because games get ported to platforms I don't like
Prey is already out?
This right here.


I'm not familiar with the franchise outside knowing it's a thing and the only exposure I ever got from the game was the red eye trailer last year. I didn't see any buzz about the title or reviews pop up on my usual gaming feeds so I was under the impression the game wouldn't be out until November.
 
Reviews are out and they are glowing.

It's got 87 on Opencritic at the moment.

The game came out Friday. Its currently Monday.

The open critic could be 100 or 0, reviews done this fast mean jack to me (unless the game is only an hour or two long?).

By the time I hear about it from outlets I respect (not Gaf OTs which circle jerk praise even flaming trash more times than not) it will be a month or so after release and at that point it goes to a gamefly que or a buy for 10$ once it tanks list.

After being burned by the trash fire of FO4 Bethesda doesn't get the benefit from me.
 
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