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[Seganomics]

It's the first time I have seen those sales numbers and I didn't realise the original Playstation sold that many units.
It's my most loved console but I never realised the rest of the world loved it THAT much.

 

[Theslammer]

So what do we think? Will it ultimately surpass the PS2?

I wouldn't be surprised if it does day-to-date while its the most recent Playstation console.

The thing is a lot of those PS2 sales came even after the PS3 released, and I don't know if the PS4 could keep that up after the PS5 releases.

 

[Shin]

So what do we think? Will it ultimately surpass the PS2?

It won't most of it's sales have already been had, it will keep on selling and end up the second best sold PS console (that's pretty much in the bag already).
PS2 components were a lot cheaper so they could sell it for $99, the memory cost in PS4 alone won't allow for that IMO.
By 2023 PS4 will have been in production for 10 years I don't know if Sony will extend it beyond that when they'll try to sell PS5's.
Plus if the latter is backwards compatible as someone in the know claims then PS4 won't be needed, though it would do well in certain countries.
It would need to sell 92M+ between now and 2023 (assuming it gets discontinued then just like PS3) that definitely ain't happening.

 

[ItalianJoe83]

63.3 milion PlayStation Plus subscribers? of course not...

 

[Fafalada]

PS2 components were a lot cheaper so they could sell it for $99, the memory cost in PS4 alone won't allow for that IMO.

It's an interesting question - PS4 Slim was basically built to sell as low as 199$. With future revisions, switching HDD for Flash and perhaps dropping BluRay drive in an eventual super-slim - who knows how low they can yet go.

 

[noobie]

Sony Corp.'s 101.4 billion yen ($920 million) increase in operating profit for the June quarter helped it beat estimates for that metric by 18 percent. Operating income came in at 157.6 billion yen, beating the 133.3 billion yen average of analysts' expectations.Investors shouldn't cheer too loudly, though, because more than two-thirds of that increase came from one-time items in the most recent period, or the lack of similar line items a year earlier.

Income Breakdown
Most of Sony's operating profit growth came from a compilation of one-time items rather than organic business expansion

More than a quarter of the increase derived from a 27.5 billion-yen gain for the semiconductor division after selling Sony Electronics Hunan Co., the company said Tuesday. Insurance recoveries from last year's Kumamoto quake also boosted the bottom line. At the same time, last year's figure was depressed by single events including impairment charges and quake-related losses.

Removing all of those effects, Sony's operating profit would have expanded 31.4 billion yen -- or just 31 percent of the scale of the reported climb.That still makes for an impressive 58 percent increase, but not the standout figure the headlines suggest.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I don't know how you got all of that about Sony pictures with the blurb there.... they have 3 releases in Spider-Man, baby driver and emoji that are going to turn a profit from this quarter. Dark tower is yet to be seen but I think that has a lowish budget too so shouldn't be too much of a loss even if it bombs.

The + and - of that slide. I mean, it's pretty straightforward.

 

[Shin]

PS4 cumulative shipments now at 63.3 million.

Selling at the same pace as PS2 when sales are aligned.

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/892452834150686720

 

[bombshell]

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/892452834150686720

That is amazing. On the graph PS4 will soon get the big holiday boost, so it should rise ahead of PS2 again. It will have trouble competing with the very long tail that PS2 enjoyed, but it's incredible 4 years in that it's still matching the best selling console ever.

 

[sense]

The + and - of that slide. I mean, it's pretty straightforward.

If only it was as simple as reading a + and -. They explained why it is a minus which is angry birds releasing in that quarter last year while this year their major releases are in the following quarter. You went into a whole side tangent of how the division is garbage and how some of their other movies would be failures too.....

 

[EdReedFan20]

The crazy thing is that 3 of those came in the same generation.

Yup. I actually noticed that after posting. It's pretty remarkable. Also, I think it's somewhat significant that all but one of those consoles (PS1) were released 2000 and forward.

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/892452834150686720

Looks like the Wii flatlining is starting to show up on the chart. I was wondering when these charts were going to start showing that.

 

[decayedmatter]

PS4 is a beast, it's gonna beat PS1 in sales, now all Sony needs to do is get a new Syphon Filter, Colony Wars, and Armored Core games, and I'll be golden this gen.

 

[The God]

PS4 is a beast, it's gonna beat PS1 in sales, now all Sony needs to do is get a new Syphon Filter, Colony Wars, and Armored Core games, and I'll be golden this gen.

They'll fund more knack instead lol

 

[Memento]

I gotta say I am very anxious about next gen numbers. Can PS5 beat PS4 crazy launch numbers?

 

[ScaryShark]

I gotta say I am very anxious about next gen numbers. Can PS5 beat PS4 crazy launch numbers?

If it's two years from now, hits the same price point and has a killer launch game (HZD2).

 

[Mullah88]

PS4 is a beast, it's gonna beat PS1 in sales, now all Sony needs to do is get a new Syphon Filter, Colony Wars, and Armored Core games, and I'll be golden this gen.

forgot socom, warhawk

 

[Memento]

If it's two years from now, hits the same price point and has a killer launch game (HZD2).

That is what I was thinking hahah

 

[Inuhanyou]

I gotta say I am very anxious about next gen numbers. Can PS5 beat PS4 crazy launch numbers?

I'm sure it can have the same momentum PS4 has enjoyed, if they don't eff it up

 

[The God]

I gotta say I am very anxious about next gen numbers. Can PS5 beat PS4 crazy launch numbers?

PS4 Pro killed any possibility of this

 

[DangerMouse]

PS4 continues to be a beast. I'm very happy that it's selling well 2017 is great year for it and it should continue to sell well thanks to it's future line up of games.

Yup. Also glad that the influx of Japanese games that we were watching finally getting announced in pretty rapid succession have met with success with more on the way.

 

[Xandremi]

PS4 Pro killed any possibility of this

I doubt this, people will always go for the new hotness. The people who wait will always wait, core gamers who actually care enough can just trade up if a Pro model is released.

 

[Samanosuke Akechi]

 

[kyser73]

PS4 Pro killed any possibility of this

Why? Most Pro owners will be on it immediately and those who are usually EAs for Sony but who for whatever reason didn't want a Pro will be...

It does bring to mind something Matt said about the next gem transition tho - that charging straight out of the gate sales wise won't be as big a requirement due to the revenue model for consoles changing, BC with the PS4 library etc.

 

[The God]

I doubt this, people will always go for the new hotness. The people who wait will always wait, core gamers who actually care enough can just trade up if a Pro model is released.

Why? Most Pro owners will be on it immediately and those who are usually EAs for Sony but who for whatever reason didn't want a Pro will be...

It does bring to mind something Matt said about the next gem transition tho - that charging straight out of the gate sales wise won't be as big a requirement due to the revenue model for consoles changing, BC with the PS4 library etc.

because the reasons people wait to buy in are now amplified by the fact that in some years the console will be re-released to actually play your games better. Couple this with the initial software drought of a new generation and competition from other platforms, I don't see PS5 doing as well as PS4. At least not out the gate.

 

[Melchiah]

because the reasons people wait to buy in are now amplified by the fact that in some years the console will be re-released to actually play your games better. Couple this with the initial software drought of a new generation and competition from other platforms, I don't see PS5 doing as well as PS4. At least not out the gate.

Early adopters want the newest thing, and it's highly unlikely they'll wait three years for the Pro upgrade. Those who tend to move to next gen later wouldn't be buying systems at launch with or without Pro.

 

[The God]

Early adopters want the newest thing, and it's highly unlikely they'll wait three years for the Pro upgrade. Those who tend to move to next gen later wouldn't be buying systems at launch with or without Pro.

my whole point is that there will be less early adopters

 

[Melchiah]

my whole point is that there will be less early adopters

And mine is that early adopters by nature aren't inclined to wait that long to get their hands on new tech. Some of those who bought the PS4 at launch might be willing to wait for a possible PS5 Pro, but I highly doubt that would affect the initial sales greatly. The question is, will the next XB launch at the same time, and how that will affect the sales. They're unlikely to repeat the same mistakes as they did with the XBO, so a more enticing competing option could affect the PS5 sales.

 

[DxD]

This is going to be a long generation. I think another 3yrs tbh. Games are still looking good and performance is decent enough if we are judging this based on Sony exclusives with UC4 and HZD.
I wonder if the PS4 can hit that sweet $150 price mark next year then the $99-everyone-needs-at-least-2 price mark after the PS5 is soon to be released.

 

[Occam]

my whole point is that there will be less early adopters

Why? I'm an early adopter as far as Playstation is concerned, and I've never been disappointed. I'll buy a PS5 at launch. With most other systems you never know how good (and steady) software support is going to be. After 20 years with Playstation it seems like a safe bet the next one will be great, too. Presumably most consumers share this view. Reputation matters.

 

[kyser73]

because the reasons people wait to buy in are now amplified by the fact that in some years the console will be re-released to actually play your games better. Couple this with the initial software drought of a new generation and competition from other platforms, I don't see PS5 doing as well as PS4. At least not out the gate.

I look at the example of the PS3 - launched late, incredibly expensive, pretty shoddy first party support and in competition with the 360 and Wii - and note that outside the US it sold well if not as explosively as the PS4, and continued to do so for its lifespan.

This was Sony's 'mistake' console.

Why? I'm an early adopter as far as Playstation is concerned, and I've never been disappointed. I'll buy a PS5 at launch. With most other systems you never know how good (and steady) software support is going to be. After 20 years with Playstation it seems like a safe bet the next one will be great, too. Presumably most consumers share this view. Reputation matters.

Yup. Their worst performing console is top 5/6 depending on whether you believe Adam Boyes' statement that the PS3 outsold the 360, that was again reflected in the PS4 launch, and will again when PS5 rolls round.

 

[Bgamer90]

I gotta say I am very anxious about next gen numbers. Can PS5 beat PS4 crazy launch numbers?

I doubt this, people will always go for the new hotness. The people who wait will always wait, core gamers who actually care enough can just trade up if a Pro model is released.

All depends on when the PS5 launches. The length of the previous gen helped the PS4.

 

[AyraSutoraifu]

I'll buy a PS5 at launch. With most other systems you never know how good (and steady) software support is going to be. After 20 years with Playstation it seems like a safe bet the next one will be great, too. Presumably most consumers share this view. Reputation matters.

This so much.

 

[The God]

Why? I'm an early adopter as far as Playstation is concerned, and I've never been disappointed. I'll buy a PS5 at launch. With most other systems you never know how good (and steady) software support is going to be. After 20 years with Playstation it seems like a safe bet the next one will be great, too. Presumably most consumers share this view. Reputation matters.

reasons I stated above: hardware upgrades, software droughts and competition, as in not just other consoles but PC as well

I look at the example of the PS3 - launched late, incredibly expensive, pretty shoddy first party support and in competition with the 360 and Wii - and note that outside the US it sold well if not as explosively as the PS4, and continued to do so for its lifespan.

This was Sony's 'mistake' console.



Yup. Their worst performing console is top 5/6 depending on whether you believe Adam Boyes' statement that the PS3 outsold the 360, that was again reflected in the PS4 launch, and will again when PS5 rolls round.

Did PS3 launch as well as PS2 did?

 

[Thorrgal]

I gotta say I am very anxious about next gen numbers. Can PS5 beat PS4 crazy launch numbers?

Relax, man! Nothing good from getting anxious about something like that

 

[StrongBlackVine]

Why? Most Pro owners will be on it immediately and those who are usually EAs for Sony but who for whatever reason didn't want a Pro will be...

It does bring to mind something Matt said about the next gem transition tho - that charging straight out of the gate sales wise won't be as big a requirement due to the revenue model for consoles changing, BC with the PS4 library etc.

I will hop on it day one for most likely. Native backwards compatibility should make it an easy transition.

 

[Thorrgal]

I will hop on it day one for most likely. Native backwards compatibility should make it an easy transition.

I think BC will be very important next generation. I owned many consoles in my life, from the Spectrum days in the early 80's...some Nintendo's, all the Segas, all the plays, 1 xbox. BC was never something I cared for though, I even had the BC PS3 and never used the feature.

But that was before the boom of digital. My digital library is huge now, including many VR games, and theres no way I'll walk away from that. On the other hand if PS5 is not BC I'd be so pissed that that would be reason enough for me to jump ships, specially if MS has some kind of plan to play the Xbox One games on the Xbox Two, as it seems the case.

But if Sony doesn't fuck it up it will have a huuuge leg start over MS...almost insurmountable I would say.

 

[kyser73]

reasons I stated above: hardware upgrades, software droughts and competition, as in not just other consoles but PC as well


Did PS3 launch as well as PS2 did?

No, but it launched into the market conditions you described with the added handicap of being at least $100 more than its next-priciest competitor, which it then proceeded to outsell WW.

PS4 launched into an even tougher market and has also been successful. I truly doubt the existence of the Pro will have that much of an impact on launch and year one sales.

 

[Omnistalgic]

I don't think PS5 is hitting anytime soon...2020 at the earliest. That means we have God of War, Horizon updates, Spider-man, GTS updates, Day's Gone, TLOU2, Sucker Punch's game, and closes out with Death Stranding. Just seems like there's too much big software coming for a PS5 to be necessary.

2020 is my bet, and I'd say by that time, especially later in the year, people will be super hyped again for another Playstation just like November of 2013 for PS4.

 

[mario_O]

Great numbers. Now bring Bloodborne 2, with good frame pacing, and it might end up being best console since PS2.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

And it hasn't hit 199 yet.

 

[bitbydeath]

I don't think PS5 is hitting anytime soon...2020 at the earliest. That means we have God of War, Horizon updates, Spider-man, GTS updates, Day's Gone, TLOU2, Sucker Punch's game, and closes out with Death Stranding. Just seems like there's too much big software coming for a PS5 to be necessary.

2020 is my bet, and I'd say by that time, especially later in the year, people will be super hyped again for another Playstation just like November of 2013 for PS4.

Looking at announced games I'd say 2019 is almost a lock.

Just about everything we know is releasing either in 2017 or 2018, with only a few titles like Death Stranding and maybe TLOU2 releasing in 2019, but of course it is also likely the PS5 won't release until the end of 2019 which Sony always like games released through the beginning and middle of the year which only leaves those two titles to fill and maybe Sucker Punch for an unannounced one.

 

[LiquidSolid]

Looking at announced games I'd say 2019 is almost a lock.

Just about everything we know is releasing either in 2017 or 2018, with only a few titles like Death Stranding and maybe TLOU2 releasing in 2019, but of course it is also likely the PS5 won't release until the end of 2019 which Sony always like games released through the beginning and middle of the year which only leaves those two titles to fill and maybe Sucker Punch for an unannounced one.

And if they announce more games at PSX or E3 next year will it suddenly be unlocked? It's too far away to say for sure, especially trying to figure it out based solely on their current announced lineup.

 

[Thorrgal]

And if they announce more games at PSX or E3 next year will it suddenly be unlocked? It's too far away to say for sure, especially trying to figure it out based solely on their current announced lineup.

Indeed. All we can say at this point is it won't be realeased before 2019

 

[kyser73]

The extensive discussion in the Pachter PS5 comment thread about the likely availability of a 7nm Ryzen 2 APU, RAM type & getting all that to a $399 price point point by November 2019 has put me in the November 2020 'camp'.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

If only it was as simple as reading a + and -. They explained why it is a minus which is angry birds releasing in that quarter last year while this year their major releases are in the following quarter. You went into a whole side tangent of how the division is garbage and how some of their other movies would be failures too.....

The division is garbage and the movies will suck and most likely bomb too. It is not that hard a prediction to make. The TV side is good though.

 

[Duffman]

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/892452834150686720

Wow, didn't realize PS4 is doing this well.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Looking at announced games I'd say 2019 is almost a lock.

Just about everything we know is releasing either in 2017 or 2018, with only a few titles like Death Stranding and maybe TLOU2 releasing in 2019, but of course it is also likely the PS5 won't release until the end of 2019 which Sony always like games released through the beginning and middle of the year which only leaves those two titles to fill and maybe Sucker Punch for an unannounced one.

yeah, but this isn't an exhaustive list. There's going to be a few more announced AAA titles for PS4 before this gen is out, heck, Horizon may very well get a sequel in 2019. There's still Dreams, Wild, Sucker Punch, likely another Ratchet game, and who knows what Japan studio is doing after Knack 2 and Everybody's Golf launches.

End of 2019 seems early, I mean, we're in August, Fall flies by 2018 will be here before you know it, I think it's a bit too early to ask even the hardcore to get another gaming machine.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

And it hasn't hit 199 yet.

Maybe in deals this holiday season?

 

[Shin]

Maybe this holiday season?

A temporary drop perhaps like they did during E3, but I expect that it will go back to normal after that.
I don't see Sony letting go of $50 - 100 on each console sold not when they don't have to and got enough marketing to push bundles as is.
Strategically speaking I expect $50 permanent drop on PS4 Pro, check this out and it probably still won't do much for them: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245131575&postcount=6631
That's practically giving the console away...