-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Psychonauts 2 needs to sell over 2 million copies at $60 for Fig Investor break even
- Thread starter hollomat
- Start date
Gotdatmoney
Member
Well, enjoy bankruptcy I guess can't not a chance in hell that's happening.
James Scott
Banned
They won't go bankrupt nor lose money most likely. At most they'd piss of a select few fans that wanted to invest in the game.
Leafhopper
Banned
From specifically a platforming standpoint? Eh it's whatever. With a really annoying part at the end. That's not what kept me going though, no.
SoulUnison
Banned
I hope they give the story a satisfying conclusion in 2, then.
Coriolanus
Banned
An 80% profit in 2-3 years seems a bit... sky high from the get go, tbqh.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
They plan to finish the story completely..right
Delusibeta
Banned
Frankly, this looks like fraud to me. Watch Fig pull the same bullshit with the Wasteland 3 campaign.
Gameplay-wise it's never in the same league as 3D Mario. Just navigating your character is never as satisfying. It has nice writing, likable characters, cool setting and a charming and creative world. Some side stories are actually really great. There are some great gameplay ideas too, yet it never feels like they reach their full potential. I'd still recommend it, especially if you enjoy the humor and appreciate new and good ideas. 10 bucks for PC is worth it, or you wait for a sale. If you plan on playing on console, check the version you're about to get. IIRC some had audio problems.
It's high risk high reward. The 80% assumed it sold as many copies as the previous game and at a higher price. The new break even is impossible.
Jawbreaker
Member
Shit, that's a really tough proposition. Notch should bail them out.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Well uh
good luck
edit-
Wait it went from 1.7 million copies at $21 to make 80% back to 2 million copies at $60? They changed the terms on the investors?
That is fuuuucked.
good luck
edit-
Wait it went from 1.7 million copies at $21 to make 80% back to 2 million copies at $60? They changed the terms on the investors?
That is fuuuucked.
sixteen-bit
Member
didn't the first one sell like 28K NPD?
There's already been an example of a game that did just that, Consortium 2.
MulderYuffie
Member
yeah good luck with that...
Yeah, I've never played through the entire game, but I guess I can see why people like it so much. I guess it's just the loud fans that give the game so much praise that it just seemed more popular to me at the time. I kinda feel like the same thing happened with Beyond Good and Evil, and Beyond Good and Evil 2 won't be successful either.
There was bullshit with the Wasteland 2 campaign? I didn't know that.
I knew there were some shit from the Spacebase DF-9 early access though.
Revolutionary
Member
Yep. As much as I loved the first game and was willing to help it into fruition, I wasn't willing to take a loss on an investment. The sales figures they had were generous at best, especially considering the inclusion of Humble Bundle sales for the first game.
Fig is a good concept with terrible execution.
For the first (negligible) $1 million dollars , investors are getting 8.5% of the revenue Fig receives. The developer and Fig pocket the rest. It then drops to 3%.
The problem is simple. The proportion of money potentially invested by enthusiasts (at $3 million) would be much higher than the proportion of money paid out. Perhaps 25% of the risk for 3% profit share?
Unless Psychonauts 2 has a budget of you know, $50,000,000. Actually, without providing budgeting information in full its ridiculous that anyone would invest in the first place. A fool and his money...
For the first (negligible) $1 million dollars , investors are getting 8.5% of the revenue Fig receives. The developer and Fig pocket the rest. It then drops to 3%.
The problem is simple. The proportion of money potentially invested by enthusiasts (at $3 million) would be much higher than the proportion of money paid out. Perhaps 25% of the risk for 3% profit share?
Unless Psychonauts 2 has a budget of you know, $50,000,000. Actually, without providing budgeting information in full its ridiculous that anyone would invest in the first place. A fool and his money...
ForkNetwork
Banned
This is like expecting a Killer 7 sequel to sell 5 million, its pretty much impossible.
You would need:
A killer marketing campaign, a 10/10 game and a game with something attractive to the masses (Similar to how SoTC ended up selling a lot due to word of mouth and the fact that people wanted to fight giant monsters)
You would need:
A killer marketing campaign, a 10/10 game and a game with something attractive to the masses (Similar to how SoTC ended up selling a lot due to word of mouth and the fact that people wanted to fight giant monsters)
mugurumakensei
Member
eh, investing on fig should be looked at as paying for a game to exist with the potential to make money. basically, you're hedging the bet that a crowd funded title becomes really popular. if you just want traditional rewards, you can be a backer. it's less risky, but, if the in the unlikely scenario the title blows up in popularity, you just have a copy of the game instead of potentially thousands of dollars.
Delusibeta
Banned
Wasteland 3, sorry. And the bullshit hasn't happened yet, but I wouldn't be too surprised is that the return estimates of the ongoing Fig campaign prove to be fraudulently optimistic.
The $1.70/ unit is assuming all 6000 shares aren't sold.
If all 6000 shares are sold, its $2.83/unit going to investors. And at $500 per share, if you invest $1,000 you'll own 2 shares so you'll get $2.83/6000*2 per copy sold or about 1/100 of one cent.
After gross revenue hits $13M, the amount per unit does drop to $1.13 so you're getting about 1/250 of one cent per copy sold.
The actual break-even is around 2.2M copies sold. See the link below for the actual math done by someone on reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DOUBLEFINE/comments/556q28/a_look_at_figs_psychonauts_2_investment/
This is the other shitty part of things. Assuming Pyschonauts 2 is the next GTA V (it won't be), your maximum return is capped at 3 times your investment. So if you invest $1,000, even if the game sells 20 million copies, you get $3,000 back and not a penny more.
I am a huge pyschonauts 1 fan and thought this would be a great opportunity to help fund the sequel to a game I love while maybe making some money at the same time. The terms are just too shitty though.
OrbitalBeard
Member
The game could end up with a MC score of 95+ and it still wouldn't hit 2 million copies sold at $60 a pop. It's not happening.
RareFantasy64
Member
I'll do my part
By the way, the shadiest part of the whole thing hasn't even been mentioned/noticed.
How much game shares are worth depends HEAVILY on how much Fig themselves (the company) invest. They have a deal to provide Double Fine with $600,000 - $3,000,000 toward development costs, and how much Fig gets scales with the investment.
If Fig invests the minimum, it will take about 13,000,000 copies sold at full price for game shares to pay for themselves.
How much game shares are worth depends HEAVILY on how much Fig themselves (the company) invest. They have a deal to provide Double Fine with $600,000 - $3,000,000 toward development costs, and how much Fig gets scales with the investment.
If Fig invests the minimum, it will take about 13,000,000 copies sold at full price for game shares to pay for themselves.
RPGCrazied
Member
Depends on what it looks like, and how long it is before I plunk $60 on it.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
It's a point-and-click adventure game disguised as a platformer.
I don't really see the big deal to be honest. The core crowdfunding campaign is over, the game is getting made.
Now people can additionally invest in the game - not just donate, but actually invest - and DF makes it clear what that means for them. Unsurprisingly, investing in Psychonauts 2 for financial reasons is a hilariously bad idea and why would you ever do that if you hoped for an actual monetary return? It's Psychonauts 2.
None of this should be surprising. I cannot explain why the numbers changed but fact of the matter is that they were clearly announced the second it was actually possible to invest in the game. If they allowed you to invest based on the wrong numbers and then changed them afterwards, that would be a different story.
Now people can additionally invest in the game - not just donate, but actually invest - and DF makes it clear what that means for them. Unsurprisingly, investing in Psychonauts 2 for financial reasons is a hilariously bad idea and why would you ever do that if you hoped for an actual monetary return? It's Psychonauts 2.
None of this should be surprising. I cannot explain why the numbers changed but fact of the matter is that they were clearly announced the second it was actually possible to invest in the game. If they allowed you to invest based on the wrong numbers and then changed them afterwards, that would be a different story.
Well, these investments accounted for $1.87M of the $3.82M raised, so if investors pull out at this point, the game could potentially dip below its goal. Not sure how Fig would handle that at this point though.
Frozenprince
Banned
So how the hell is fig even supposed to work then for most games if the overhead renders your ability to turn a profit basically nil?
This gif will be getting a lot of usage as this Fig continues.
It only renders the ability to turn a profit to nil for the investors. For the developers themselves, the break even is much lower.
Similar threads
- Locked