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[Eddie-Griffin]

https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-cto-carmack-psvr-2-sales/

John Carmack, former CTO of Oculus and key player in the VR startup’s genesis story, says Sony’s upcoming PSVR 2 headset may be see a bumpy road to adoption based on its high price and potential for scattershot geographic distribution.

And though he he lauded that unique technical potential, Carmack says he actually doesn’t expect PSVR 2 to be “very successful at $600”:

Releasing on February 22nd, PSVR 2 carries a price tag of $550, which after sales tax puts it somewhere close to $600 out-the-door in most states. That’s a fair jump past Quest 2’s $400/$500 price tag, depending on whether you buy the 128GB or 256GB version.

Still, this doesn’t take into account the all-in price to actually play PSVR 2, which at $400 for the PS5 Digital Edition and $500 for Console with disc drive, puts it somewhere north of $1,000 for everything required. But what about Sony’s impressive global reach with PS5?

In a follow-up tweet, Carmack mentions that PS5’s admittedly large global footprint, now tallying 30 million consoles worldwide, isn’t nearly as important as having a higher concentration of devices spanning a smaller geographic area.

“Addressable market size matters much more to developers than global coverage. A 5M market size distributed across every country is much less attractive than a 10M market in a smaller set of countries. In fact, equal sized markets would favor fewer countries — less work.”


Carmack doesn’t appear to be playing favorites either; he similarly critiqued Meta Quest Pro recently for its “dubious price point,” something which has skewed Meta’s latest and greatest away from consumers and positioning the mixed reality headset more as a work productivity device.

Doubts about PSVR 2 seem to be mounting the in few weeks preceding its February launch. Public perception was recently injected with a heavy measure of uncertainty about its pre-order performance. A Bloomberg report earlier this week claimed Sony had slashed production forecasts of PSVR 2 by half to just one million units expected in the first quarter, something Sony has now refuted.

So basically, Carmack is arguing that the PSVR2's price will kill it, alone or with you having to buy a PS5 console with it, regardless.

He is also arguing that the 30(now 32) million sales figure of the PS5 itself is not actually impressive, and doesn't mean much for VR, and says a targeted success would be better for VR and developers than a wide global spread.

Looking through his tweets, he goes after Quest Pros price as well so he is consistent.

 

[saintjules]

I think point of the matter is, based on the specs, it's a reasonable price point, especially those looking to enter VR for the first time (myself included). Aren't the other VR hardware out there is double in cost, yet I hear no complaints about them?

I get it, that kind of money all at once is a bit hard to swallow. If people in their right mind were able to put money away since the announcement of VR, the blow to your wallet is much less impactful. Who's fault is that?

We'll see how it progresses. The right kind of games will be needed for PSVR2 to remain successful. GT7 seems to be the first game to ignite that process. I hope other devs follow suit.

Edit: Announcement of PSVR2 was back in Feb. 2022. No one saved for what would have been an expensive product?

 

[SJRB]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

 

[saintjules]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

Perhaps, but then people should do something else with their money or play other stuff.

It's like with these expensive GPUs. They're priced the way they are. Doesn't mean any of us have to get it lol.

Maybe People need to wait to see it's true performance/potential. Nothing wrong with waiting either.

 

[sinnergy]

He has a point .

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I think point of the matter is, based on the specs, it's a reasonable price point, especially those looking to enter VR for the first time (myself included). Aren't the other VR hardware out there is double in cost, yet I hear no complaints about them?

John has complained about numerous headset prices including the Quest Pro.

Edit: Announcement of PSVR2 was back in Feb. 2022. No one saved for what would have been an expensive product?

We only got the price of the PSVR2 recently, most of last year was people guessing what the price would be, often guessing between mas of $449, or the original PSVR1 price.

 

[Kacho]

Edit: Announcement of PSVR2 was back in Feb. 2022. No one saved for what would have been an expensive product?

A significant amount of people? Probably not.

 

[iHaunter]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

Outside of the Vive which requires a $2.5k-$3k computer to run. All the other VR options are shit with mediocre specs.

 

[Sakura]

I think point of the matter is, based on the specs, it's a reasonable price point, especially those looking to enter VR for the first time (myself included). Aren't the other VR hardware out there is double in cost, yet I hear no complaints about them?

I get it, that kind of money all at once is a bit hard to swallow. If people in their right mind were able to put money away since the announcement of VR, the blow to your wallet is much less impactful. Who's fault is that?

We'll see how it progresses. The right kind of games will be needed for PSVR2 to remain successful. GT7 seems to be the first game to ignite that process. I hope other devs follow suit.

Edit: Announcement of PSVR2 was back in Feb. 2022. No one saved for what would have been an expensive product?

Other VR hardware out there for double the cost isn't selling tons of units. It is for a very niche audience. If Sony wants to sell only a few million of these things, then sure, that's fine.

Seems kind of weird to complain about people not saving to buy one. I'm sure the diehard fans who will buy it day one have indeed saved for one. But for the general market, it needs to be compelling enough for people to want to save and buy it at that price point to begin with. The cheaper it is, the more attractive it is as a product for people to want to save and buy.

 

[Deerock71]

I tend to agree with him; that's one expensive-ass peripheral.

 

[Fox Mulder]

Depends on what Sony thinks is a success. The price and being locked to a ps5 will limit sales compared to a Quest obviously.

VR is niche and this will probably sell a couple million in a few years like the last one.

 

[semiconscious]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

yeh, i'm thinking that john carmack isn't the only one that's come to this conclusion...

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Outside of the Vive which requires a $2.5k-$3k computer to run. All the other VR options are shit with mediocre specs.

Valve Index?

 

[coffinbirth]

Obligatory

 

[Crayon]

If headsets have a hard cap of $400 then we are fucked for a minute.

 

[Soosa]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

Or it just requires the headset, for millions of people whom already own a ps5.

Kind of like saying "5000€ Ferrari wheels require 500 000€ car".

I have never heard anyone buying ps4 and psvr1 in the same time, just to play vr. So why people assume it is now The case?

If it would be cheap and shitty, it could do more harm than good for the vr world.

And people whom cant afford 500€/$ a year even with saving, should not waste their money to these things anyway

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

I think point of the matter is, based on the specs, it's a reasonable price point, especially those looking to enter VR for the first time (myself included). Aren't the other VR hardware out there is double in cost, yet I hear no complaints about them?

I get it, that kind of money all at once is a bit hard to swallow. If people in their right mind were able to put money away since the announcement of VR, the blow to your wallet is much less impactful. Who's fault is that?

We'll see how it progresses. The right kind of games will be needed for PSVR2 to remain successful. GT7 seems to be the first game to ignite that process. I hope other devs follow suit.

Edit: Announcement of PSVR2 was back in Feb. 2022. No one saved for what would have been an expensive product?

I don’t think I’ve saved for a single thing since I was a child ( apart from a house deposit). I just have general savings then ‘fun’ spending comes from that and for individual purchases price is definitively a key factor in deciding where that money goes. It’s not so much ‘can I afford this’ … it’s more, ‘is it worth it’

 

[StreetsofBeige]

VR headsets will never have great sales or the same experience as tried and true couch gaming. When you got a thing on your head, nobody is going to play it for hours and hours.

Too lazy to find the article, but Meta even had a study saying around 50% of VR users stop using it after 6 months. And they werent talking about that VR Metaverse Horizon thing. It was VR usage as a whole.

If you got a gaming experience that is suppose to be ultra wow factor, yet half the people bail on it after half a year, it shows the shitload of games available for it arent worth playing. And thats even considering VR gamers got an advantage of cheap priced games while full budget gamers playing with M/KB or a gamepad have to consider full price. On the other hand, how often do you see a traditional console or PC gamers buying new hardware and already stop playing it after 6 months?

 

[midnightAI]

Wait were does he say 30 million console sales isn't impressive?

 

[DeepEnigma]

Valve Index?

This is cheaper and better spec'ed than the Index.

 

[BackBackPunch]

The only value I see in my Quest 2 anymore is using it as a VR fitness device. In that context, it's still worthwhile. But everything else has lost its novelty at this point. I'm essentially done with new releases. They're not interesting. They're not compelling. Pushing buttons and turning knobs in a VR environment was only fun when it was new. Now it's annoying. I'd rather play pancake games on the PS5.

 

[TheMan]

He has a point, 600 is high. Good tech yes but you are also confined to a walled garden with that headset. Yes mods for pc support may come along but won’t be as good as native support.

Also the games so far look good, but personally not quite good enough for me to justify a purchase yet.

So, in short I don’t think psvr2 will bomb but it’s not gonna be the headset that finally busts through to mainstream either

 

[Ronin_7]

Wait were does he say 30 million console sales isn't impressive?

Context probably matters, also successful he probably means selling a hundred million units.

Only Meta Quest can achieve that.

 

[BennyBlanco]

i feel like people are looking past the fact that PS has 0 access to porn or porn games. I see a bunch of people on my steam friends using the DeoVR video player and those are the people without the shame to appear offline lol.

 

[mckmas8808]

Why are they saying the PSVR2 is $600, but the Quest2 is $400\$500?

 

[Crayon]

Why are they saying the PSVR2 is $600, but the Quest2 is $400\$500?

idk why so many feel the need to make such an obvious exageration. 550 is already high enough to make the point it's expensive.

 

[midnightAI]

Why are they saying the PSVR2 is $600, but the Quest2 is $400\$500?

Well how else would they arrive at a figure 'north of $1000', gotta inflate it to make it sound worse than it is

 

[TheMan]

i feel like people are looking past the fact that PS has 0 access to porn or porn games. I see a bunch of people on my steam friends using the DeoVR video player and those are the people without the shame to appear offline lol.

Oh yeah for sure this is a problem. PSVR 1 had a program that allowed for sideloading videos (I think it was called little star) but it went from free to pay to defunct I believe.

That said I used to love VR porn but now I think it’s overrated

 

[Baki]

Carmack is right. There has only been 1 successful mainstream VR console and it has been the Quest. The Quest has 3 things going for it: low price, wireless/portable and robust software support.
The entire PCVR/high-end headset market is 8-9x smaller than just the Quest 2. If you're a games developer, you're going to develop for the Quest and may only consider ports to other VR headsets. That alone means the PSVR2 will have weak software support, which will lead to the platform dropping hard in sales after the initial adopters have gotten their headsets.

 

[coffinbirth]

Or it just requires the headset, for millions of people whom already own a ps5.

Kind of like saying "5000€ Ferrari wheels require 500 000€ car".

I have never heard anyone buying ps4 and psvr1 in the same time, just to play vr. So why people assume it is now The case?

If it would be cheap and shitty, it could do more harm than good for the vr world.

And people whom cant afford 500€/$ a year even with saving, should not waste their money to these things anyway

A friendly reminder...

...that a large portion of PSVR owners did exactly that. Not only in bundles, but the Black Friday/Cyber Monday Deals had steep discounts on combined sales for like three years in a row.

For many this will be the case too as PS5 consoles are JUST NOW being on store shelves with any regularity. I mean, you're aware we're not even 1/2 way through this gen, right?
Also, who the fuck would buy Ferrari wheels without owning a Ferrari? What a goofy analogy, lol.

 

[REDRZA MWS]

No shit, and Sony should have learned with their first experiment. VR has its applications its useful for, but “mainstream gaming” will never be one of them. its niche at best.

 

[ABnormal]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

Whoever thinks that VR is a "gimmik" either thinks that VR is some body controlled thing or he's just trolling.

You can play games like usual (where is the gimmik?), seated on your couch, but INSIDE the game, with perception of depth and scale, and, if developers want, with the ability to exponentially interact and control things.

 

[DeepEnigma]

No shit, and Sony should have learned with their first experiment. VR has its applications its useful for, but “mainstream gaming” will never be one of them. its niche at best.

They know this. They also know it's a slow burn. They have said so many times in the past.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Wait were does he say 30 million console sales isn't impressive?

Impressive in terms to impact and importance to VR,

But what about Sony’s impressive global reach with PS5?

In a follow-up tweet, Carmack mentions that PS5’s admittedly large global footprint, now tallying 30 million consoles worldwide, isn’t nearly as important as having a higher concentration of devices spanning a smaller geographic area.

“Addressable market size matters much more to developers than global coverage. A 5M market size distributed across every country is much less attractive than a 10M market in a smaller set of countries. In fact, equal sized markets would favor fewer countries — less work.”

 

[coffinbirth]

Oh yeah for sure this is a problem. PSVR 1 had a program that allowed for sideloading videos (I think it was called little star) but it went from free to pay to defunct I believe.

That said I used to love VR porn but now I think it’s overrated

Media Player has VR functionality though, right? It's been a minute, but I used to rip 360 VR vids and play them on my PS4 with PSVR and head tracking worked, I believe. Or am I misunderstanding?

 

[DeepEnigma]

Positive PSVR2/GT7 news that is making a splash today.

Release the counter munitions!

 

[kiphalfton]

Perhaps, but then people should do something else with their money or play other stuff.

It's like with these expensive GPUs. They're priced the way they are. Doesn't mean any of us have to get it lol.

Maybe People need to wait to see it's true performance/potential. Nothing wrong with waiting either.

A VR headset is not like a GPU. So crap analogy.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

This is cheaper and better spec'ed than the Index.

That's not what the person quoted was arguing, the Index didn't have mediocre specs.

 

[blastprocessor]

Sony's strategy of porting PS games must surely mean they will eventually port VR games to PC as well?

If not they are throwing money away.

Best way to make a much bigger success of PSVR2 is to open it up to PC.

 

[ABnormal]

I'm always baffled when people decide themselves what success for a thing would be.

If PSVR 2 will not bring a loss, and at the same time bringing one more great thing to PS ecosystem, that's a success, which will make happy anyone interested in it. That's it. Whoever thinks that it has to sell 10, 20, 30 millions units to be considered a success, is just egocentrically identified with his ideas, not reality, and even less with producers plans.

Even if will come to a loss, if that has been taken on account as an investment to build a future market and expertise, even only the quality of the hardware and of the games will be a success.

Most of what could be done has be done, and now it will depend by economy and adoption rate. But in any case, gamers will be happy with it, regardless of "success", and haters will continue to have a sad life. As for consoles, few important games will be the ones which will define PSVR 2 life and make it memorable. And most of them are probably already planned for years.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Sony's strategy of porting PS games must surely mean they will eventually port VR games to PC as well?

If not they are throwing money away.

Best way to make a much bigger success of PSVR2 is to open it up to PC.

Agreed. About a year or so down the line.

 

[bentanchorbolt]

$600 piece of kit requires a $400 console to run it, and it only works within the confines of that one ecosystem so its very much a walled garden. So yeah, he isn't wrong. And also the wire is a negative.

BUT

Players go where the games are and PS VR2 will be the best spot for AAA VR games. If VR has any chance of success its going to be here I suspect.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Carmack is right. There has only been 1 successful mainstream VR console and it has been the Quest.

Samsung VR, Quest 1, Quest 2, so 3.

Why are they saying the PSVR2 is $600, but the Quest2 is $400\$500?

Taxes? they explain it right in the article.

Granted, they don't add taxes for the Quest 2 for some reason.

 

[ZehDon]

I think Carmack's on the money, once again.

With that said, I don't think it'll flop - it'll do PSVR1 lifetime numbers - but that'll be well below what Sony is hoping for.

 

[ABnormal]

So basically, Carmack is arguing that the PSVR2's price will kill it, alone or with you having to buy a PS5 console with it, regardless.

He is also arguing that the 30(now 32) million sales figure of the PS5 itself is not actually impressive, and doesn't mean much for VR, and says a targeted success would be better for VR and developers than a wide global spread.

Looking through his tweets, he goes after Quest Pros price as well so he is consistent.

There's not so much more that can be done: you can either launch an high end PSVR 2 like now, and face some struggle with price, or launch an average one, already old at launch, which will cost 350 - 400 dollars, and that will not make happy nor enthusiasts, and neither casuals (for them the price would still be high).

Thanks God Sony chose the former path.

How could I care for a "succesful" PSVR 2 that offers average VR quality? As for those who buy a next gen console, buying a next gen VR is to play next gen VR games.

 

[R6Rider]

Well, yeah. It requires a 500-dollar console and a 500+ dollar VR set.

That's a lot of money for a gimmick experience.

 

[It's all in the wrist]

I really can't see it being a success. There's a high barrier to entry, most people can't play it for long stretches, and there are few exclusives.

I'm just glad they are trying again! I have no doubt that VR will be huge when the headsets aren't so unwieldy.

 

[WhamBamThankYouMaam]

I mean, I would line to buy one and that is just because of gt7.

But that would tequire me to buy a wheel (for thr great experience) as well, and that just crosses the threshold of becoming too much.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

There's not so much more that can be done: you can either launch an high end PSVR 2 like now, and face some struggle with price, or launch an average one, already old at launch, which will cost 350 - 400 dollars, and that will not make happy nor enthusiasts, and neither casuals (for them the price would still be high).

Thanks God Sony chose the former path.

I could I care for a "succesful" PSVR 2 that offers average VR quality? As for those who buy a next gen console, buying a next gen VR is to play next gen VR games.

The Quest 3 is literally going to be in the middle, and it has two companies targeting to be better than it HTC, and TCL, at around the same price range.

Quest 2 when it first launched already sold you don't have to choose either side, it's only very outdated now because it's heading into it's 3rd year. Quest 3, HTC, and TCl's affordable devices are going to have many specs of the several $550-700 headsets as well as some of the features without going that high.

 

[Ansphn]

He will be wrong. He's just butthurt Meta spent 100s of billion (the worth of some country's GDP) on him for VR and they're losing money at an unprecedented rate. That's complete failure right there.