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Strategy Analytics predicts Sony to move 80 million consoles compared to Microsoft's 57 million

Sony will be the unquestioned leader through the first five years of the current generation of console wars, according to a new report from Strategy Analytics. The research firm has released its Connected Home Devices Report, saying the PlayStation 4 "is on path to reproduce the success of the PlayStation 2 and Nintendo Wii."

Strategy Analytics predicts that by 2019, Sony will have a global installed base of 80 million PS4s. That would give the company a 40 percent edge on the firm's projected 57 million worldwide installed base for the Xbox One. As far as comparisons to historical systems, the firm notes that the PS4's 18.5 million units shipped in the first year on sale is much closer to the pace of the dominant PS2 (20.1 million) than the initially disappointing PlayStation 3 (10.5 million).

Looking at the Xbox One, the system's 12.4 million systems shipped for the first year surpassed the initially supply-constrained Xbox 360's first-year performance of 10.4 million units. However, the report noted that the Xbox One has suffered from some of the same challenges the PS3 faced, like a higher price point than its competition.

As for the Wii U, Strategy Analytics acknowledged its anemic 5.9 million in first-year shipments, but added the system has been "staging a modest comeback" on the strength of first-party software.

"Despite reports to the contrary, the game console market is not dead," said Strategy Analytics senior analyst Eric Smith. "Core gamers have moved faster to this current generation than in any previous generation. The main difference in this generation is that casual gamers who bought a Wii are remaining largely on the side lines as free-to-play casual games and midcore games on tablets and smartphones have captured this segment of consumers."

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...ll-xbox-one-by-40-percent-through-2018-report

Outsell me if old.

 

[TomShoe]

Sounds about right. I wonder how much of that 57M is going to come from the US/UK.

 

[prwxv3]

makes sense worldwide

 

[darkwing]

just wait until it drops to $299

 

[GobFather]

Imagine how much money Sony can make from 80 Million PSN plus users, even if half of that have PSN plus. "prints money" Thank you Microsoft

 

[mejin]

If Japan starts to buy, the gap will be wider.

 

[Leflus]

Doesn't sound unreasonable. Sony is going to win this generation with a comfortable lead.

 

[Dragonborn]

I don't get where the X1 selling more than 50 million comes from. like, where are this extra sales going to come from when it's practically dead outside NA and the UK (where it's getting easily outsold by the higher priced PS4)

I think the PS4 number is okay, maybe a bit higher but I so feel this will be a short gen overall. Be it because MS cuts it short again or because both decide that quicker releases of console refreshes are better

 

[Digital-Hero]

just wait until it drops to $299

Aren't PS3's still selling for that? lol

 

[CozMick]

Pachter is that you?

 

[Sakura]

Hmm? Are those numbers right? PS4 shipped 18.5mil and XBO 12.4 in the first year? I thought the XBO was at like 10 million or something.
Also I don't see the XBO selling more than 50 million personally.

 

[Welfare]

Where did they get 12.4 million Xbox Ones shipped?

 

[Xando]

57 million seems a bit high with it's current sales ROTW sales. 40-45 milliom seems more realistic.

 

[timlot]

I have a feeling new technology is going to stunt the growth of both systems. VR/AR will be the next frontier, and if Apple decides to get in the game all bets are off.

 

[juicyfruitas]

Good news for msft since they were getting outsold in most of the world 2:1

Closing the gap to a 40% ps4 lead would be a minor victory of sorts for the bone

 

[Dragonborn]

Hmm? Are those numbers right? PS4 shipped 18.5mil and XBO 12.4 in the first year? I thought the XBO was at like 10 million or something.

X1 shipped, PS4 sold to consumer. Yet again, MS Pr tactics prove themselves to work. Sold through for the X1 was likely 10.5ish million or so iirc.

 

[wachie]

Hmm? Are those numbers right? PS4 shipped 18.5mil and XBO 12.4 in the first year? I thought the XBO was at like 10 million or something.
Also I don't see the XBO selling more than 50 million personally.

Looking at the Xbox One, the system's 12.4 million systems shipped for the first year surpassed the initially supply-constrained Xbox 360's first-year performance of 10.4 million units.

.

 

[Pathfinder]

I don't get where the X1 selling more than 50 million comes from. like, where are this extra sales going to come from when it's practically dead outside NA and the UK (where it's getting easily outsold by the higher priced PS4)

Believe in Phil Spencer.

 

[SerTapTap]

Seems like a lowball estimate (percent-wise) if anything. Maybe if Xbox can really capitalize on being the cheaper system...which they only are in the US...and it's novelty seems to have already worn off. Will be interested to see how much the PS4 exclusives of this year (and possible holiday deals) change things. If anything last christmas was extremely generous to Xbox and I don't see them keeping pace beyond that if not for Halo.

 

[Stanng243]

Microsoft never released accurate shipping numbers did they? I wonder where the 12.4 million shipped came from.

 

[Respawn]

Makes sense if sales continue the way they are .

 

[x-Lundz-x]

Hope those numbers are true, still no amount of good sales will never stop the consoles are dead crowd though.

 

[CozMick]

Those numbers are tales from their ass.

Sonys number is sold-through not shipped and that 12.5 million where did that come from?

 

[Elandyll]

Isn't this article based on a false assumption?

They mention 18.5m shipped, but I thought those were sold through?

Also, seems to overestimate WW sales of XB1, and underestimate sales of PS4.

This being said, 80 vs 57 by 2018 is possible, but it would require a serious lift from the XB1 (40m units in 4 years) compared to present sales (around 8- ish shipped last year, 10-11m LTD shipped?).
Not sure where they got the 12.4m shipped last year for XB1.

 

[amar212]

XboxOne selling 50M will be a true success.

I honestly fail to comprehend how they predicted that.

I want to see MS changing their WW strategy to meet such numbers.

 

[bombshell]

X1 shipped, PS4 sold to consumer. Yet again, MS Pr tactics prove themselves to work. Sold through for the X1 was likely 10.5ish million or so iirc.

lol

Such work and then they mix up shipped and sold through numbers.

 

[3rdamention]

Where did they get 12.4 million Xbox Ones shipped?

This, just at the end of November (?) they were "close" to 10 million shipped. Where did the other 2.5 million or so come from?

 

[Samurai G0SU]

Did they factor in China for ps4? Might be a bigger number, no?

 

[onQ123]

We will not be giving up a 40% sales lead to our competition.

 

[Sakura]

.

Er yes but A) I don't recall reading an announcement by Microsoft saying 'We shipped 12.4 million in the first year!' and B) The 18.5 million PS4's should be sold through, not shipped, IIRC so why compare shipped to sold through?
Edit: In fact this http://news.xbox.com/2014/11/xbox-one-sales-on-the-rise from November last year (the XBO's first year) says "Shortly, we will have sold in to retailers more than 10 million Xbox One consoles." 10 million is not 12.4 which is why I am confused by the number.

 

[BadWolf]

The way things are going the gap will probably be bigger.

 

[John Bender]

Xbox One = 57 million in the first 5 years?

Not gonna happen, imho.

 

[ShamePain]

It's strange considering it's not even touching PS2's or even Wii's game libraries. But yeah, MS has only got themselves to blame for PS4 being a huge success.

 

[Gestault]

That doesn't sound too far off-base, it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Zophar]

We will not be giving up a 40% sales lead to our competition.

Masterful.

 

[RPGamer92]

Sony should come out with a $299 slim Uncharted 4 bundle this holiday.

 

[yon61]

The One would have to actually start selling in Europe to pass 50 million, which won't happen. 30 million is about the best it can hope for reasonably.

 

[BadWolf]

Sony should come out with a $299 slim Uncharted 4 bundle this holiday.

They really should consider a price drop this year.

It would match the PS2's timing for a price drop and really keep the system's momentum going.

 

[John Bender]

The One would have to actually start selling in Europe to pass 50 million, which won't happen. 30 million is about the best it can hope for reasonably.

Yep. Me guess is ~35 / ~40 million max.

 

[Servbot24]

Sounds like a realistic ratio, but I think they'll sell more than 80mil and 57mil. edit: nm thought it was lifetime

Sony should come out with a $299 slim Uncharted 4 bundle this holiday.

I agree with the price cut (the bundle is going too far). It will probably sell regardless, but it would be a chance for them to really put the pedal to the metal.

 

[DieH@rd]

Sony should come out with a $299 slim Uncharted 4 bundle this holiday.

Too fast. PS4 is selling quickly no matter what price point they have. If pressure becomes to high, they will drop the price to $349 thanks to the cheaper 1GB GDDR5 chips [and U4 bundle can cost $399 with 1TB HDD]. Then in 2016 they can drop the price $50 more when APU goes down below 28nm process.


As for 57M for Xbone, Europe would need to start purchasing that console much better, and I don't see this happening.

 

[Ascenion]

Considering the initial fuck up, 57 million is a good number for the Xbox One. That's enough to warrant an Xbox Two at the very least. PS4 seems underestimated. I think it can touch the 90s.

 

[shinobi602]

 

[jelly]

I think Microsoft would probably release a next gen Xbox before they hit 40 million.

 

[Natureboy99]

I still think Morpheus and Hololense are wild cards in this.

 

[Steroyd]

80m in 5 years, sounds slow compared to PS2 and Wii.

Love to know the Xbox One split between US/UK and rest of the world, not outlandish prediction but I'm not seeing it.

 

[Dragonborn]

Xbox One = 57 million in the first 5 years?

Not gonna happen, imho.

It sold whay, around 6, maybe 7 million last year? How on earth do they expect it to sell more than 10 million a year from now on? If anything, it may do a bit worse this year.

 

[ShamePain]

I think Microsoft would probably release a next gen Xbox before they hit 40 million.

If we could get back on track with 5 year gens that would be great, 7th gen was way too long. If AMD provides chips for PS4/Nextbox again it will be incredibly easy for devs to transition to new hardware and not as expensive for platform holders considering you can port current OS' and SDK's being similar.

 

[silver.tongue]

We will not be giving up a 40% sales lead to our competition.

Instant classic.

 

[Zalman]

57 million for Xbox One doesn't really sound realistic.