Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Breaking news. Sales differ across territories.
US > PAL or even if they were equal would place it near the 600k mark
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Switch at 4.7 million | ARMS: 1.18 Million, Zelda: 3.92M, Mario Kart 3.54M
- Thread starter JoeM86
- Start date
Breaking news. Sales differ across territories.
US > PAL or even if they were equal would place it near the 600k mark
Chezzymann
Member
Still, 80 million is pretty darn healthy for a platform if they can sustain it
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
I was implying all the amazing Wii U software that deserved better, but point taken.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Mario Maker is GOAT. Once it comes out for Switch, my life is sunk.
ArchedThunder
Banned
I forgot that 13 million was for lifetime, whoops.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
There are more regions than US, PAL and Japan.
Well, I guess 70 million units is still "improvement from GameCube/WiiU", so you can't be wrong with your prediction even if it does 100 millions.
CharminUltra
Member
No please, NO. What little is left of my social life will end.
yeah 80 million+ isn't really a number where a phrase like "but that's about it" is relevant
that'd be great for Switch
Liabe Brave
Member
No. By the time Switch starts meeting demand, DS, Wii, GBA, and PS4 will be into the prime of their sales.
Nintendo is still projecting 10m shipped for the first full year after launch. Even if they end up doing a few million more, that wouldn't be enough to rise up the list. In that same period, PS4 shipped ~15m, GBA ~17m, and Wii ~18m. The DS did ~11.5m, so maybe it could be passed very briefly...but it would then race ahead again. Even the 3DS shipped over 14m, so it's going to pass Switch too, unless the new machine beats Nintendo's projections by multiple millions. (It'd probably fall back behind Switch later, though.)
Note that the 10m forecast already requires doubling of the current pace during the holidays. So millions more than that would require a longer period of doubled production, or short periods of tripling. As I said before, Xbox One is the only bar that Switch is liable to cross.
If the supply constraint is competition for NAND components, they couldn't sell differently during holidays. Retailer demand wouldn't matter, just as it doesn't matter now when it also clearly outstrips supply. You're positing an imaginary world.
But this comparison is superfluous anyway. I'm not saying that holidays don't provide any incremental increase. I'm just saying the extra units fade to background noise very rapidly; it's the continuing months following that truly determine the trajectory. GBA shows that spring launches can be just as big as holiday ones. WiiU shows that pretty big launches can be followed by abject failure.
It still makes no sense.
Yeah, I would have put "Higher than 3DS" if that existed but that poll was just all-around a bad poll with basically 3-4 insane/extremly unprobable options (with one of them somehow getting loads of votes, wtf gaf how can you be so wrong)
It's Psycho_Mantis, he will stick to his guns, don't even try. I gave up long ago.
whyamihere
Banned
I honestly did not expect ARMS to sell 1.1 million that fast. I guess it'll end up doing, what, 2-3 million? Pretty decent for a new IP launch. Good job Nintendo.
iHaunter
Member
Wasn't it the only AAA game at launch?
I honestly think Nintendo would be thrilled if the system ended up selling ~80 millions. That would put it in the PS3/360/GBA/PSP ballpark, which is nothing to scoff at.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
The problem is that some people think that the Switch is going to be some amazing Wii or DS-style runaway hit and while that's certainly possible, I don't think it's probable.
it could maybe sniff Wii numbers depending on how they go about revisions and how long this particular family of hardware is on the market. if they go the 3DS route with Switch in terms of revisions and it's on the market for like 8 years they could definitely get there.
my point was that 80 million+ would be great for the Switch. that's not a number that would necessitate a meh response like "but that's about it".
The entire production roadmap would've been different with a holiday launch. You can't say shipments would've been the same as is because Nintendo's original orders would've been less conservative. It doesn't really matter that Nintendo can't adjust up due to NAND shortages now, the entire manufacturing schedule would've been different.
lyrick
Member
This is the shit I was talking about.
All digital purchase licenses were tied to a Nintendo Network Account after the Nintendo [NNID] acct implementation. It's how many of us transferred our digital libraries from our 3DS to n3DS, and how I transferred my stuff from one Wii U to another.
The account platform in use now is an all encompassing "Nintendo Account" which allows logon to the mobile games, apps, web services and the Switch Platform (afaik NNID is still used on legacy platforms)
License transferability is hit and miss on many platforms, that's why none of my PS1 classics or PS2 classics (purchased on PS3) work on the PS4. This lack of download title transfer is why some asshat wanted me to rebuy Final Fantasy VII for PS4, instead of letting me use the copy I already own, and also why the download versions of PSP games I want to play on my PlayStation TV just don't fucking work (Castlevania Chronicles X, Phantasy Star Portable, and other titles).
An account system is just a database that holds your info and lets you log onto various devices while managing some details attached to it. EVERTHING else is licensing, software compatibility and various other bullshit that is not part of an Account system.
Kiddy Dong
Member
With the way Splatoon 1, and now ARMS, have become million sellers, I think it's safe to say we'll see more fresh new AAA franchises from Nintendo in the years to come. The consumers have voted with their dollar.
Shovel Knight
Is not a AAA game?
AdventureRacing
Member
How many people have actually suggested the switch could potentially sell as well as the DS? Of course it's not probable, it's damn well near impossible and that's why no one is really suggesting that.
I also don't understand how you can think 80+ million life time sales is a reasonable prediction but wii like sales aren't. The wii only ended up selling around 100 million consoles. I don't see that is being that far out of the ballpark of 80+ million sales.
I think this goes back to something I've commented on many times previously. When talking about 'wii level sales' there needs to be a clarification made. If you're talking life time sales than the wii whilst being a huge success is far from unprecedented. The PS1, PS2, DS and game boy all sold more and the 360 and PS3 weren't far off.
If you're talking about peak level wii sales when it was dominating the sales charts that's another matter. I don't think we're ever likely to see sales like that again.
Diddy Kong
Banned
A million for ARMS is really impressive.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Switch is at 4.7 million 3 months in and you are concerned that they may not be able to ship 5.3 million more units in 9 months? Disappointing to hear with Nintendo's production issues holding it back. I was hoping they could get 10 million out by the holidays.
LegendofLex
Member
We don't know, since those games have never been available at all on Switch.
production on the first few batches surely began many months before Switch actually launched, so 4.7 million doesn't represent the production capacity for three months.
CharminUltra
Member
Switch has the potential for some truly epic holiday bundles.
Doom for Switch confirmed!
MisterR
Member
This is nonsense. The PS4 sold well because it was great hardware and also because people knew the games were coming and were excited to play even ports of older games on new hardware after 8 years. There was never any doubt that the PS4 would have great games. The Wii U's great games were few and far between. It being shitty hardware played a role, but the fact that it's lineup was basically shit for a year and a half was a major reason it failed. If it had Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey the first year, it would have sold much better.
Thank you, they would have just started to fill the order 4 months further out than they did for a spring launch, and if they are producing ~670k units a month, that is 2.7m more switch consoles on store shelves, or double the initial launch month, and would help meet demand a bit better, however demand would have rose thanks to the holiday season.
After those 4 months though, switch would likely still be sold out and with 2 to 3 million more devices sold.
ARMS's numbers impress me. I just didn't think a motion controlled fighting game would go over that well.
MK8 Deluxe is doing great with a surprisingly high tie-ratio. I thought more Switch owners who had a Wii U would skip it. They really should do a DLC pack of race tracks like they did with Wii U to help keep it evergreen.
MK8 Deluxe is doing great with a surprisingly high tie-ratio. I thought more Switch owners who had a Wii U would skip it. They really should do a DLC pack of race tracks like they did with Wii U to help keep it evergreen.
Gotdatmoney
Member
The component is constraint because not enough manufacturers produce it so you have to wait your turn for your order to be filled. It isn't that there is like a physical limitation on material. So the basis here is that if you were going to launch in the holidays you would stockpile earlier and your order volume would be significantly larger.
You can't seriously be suggesting suppliers are capping order quantity. If you aren't I don't get the point of what you're saying. They can't order more volume because?
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Looks like ARMS really paid off for Nintendo. It was either this or MK9 and seems unlikely a hypothetical Mk9.would have outsold the combined sales of MK8D and ARMS.
Most probably this will be Nintendo's strategy going forward. Less direct sequels in a single gen more new IP's.
Most probably this will be Nintendo's strategy going forward. Less direct sequels in a single gen more new IP's.
Well its already past 200K in Japan with digital, so yes, I'd say its over 600K.
I find it fascinating how you keep coming back to this thread to make people know that ARMS has only sold 600K.
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
Nintendo's been doomed since September 23, 1889. What else is new?
Lord_Byron28
Member
I bought the Switch with Splatoon 2 and ARMS. I've been playing Splatoon 2 non-stop since launch and have yet to open the box to ARMS. However, I plan to try it out today.
It also does not count digital or amazon I think
Monkeyball
Banned
Good to see Switch doing well.
Now keep improving yourself Nintendo. You are not there yet. *looks at online play*
Now keep improving yourself Nintendo. You are not there yet. *looks at online play*
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
I kinda wanna see a Mario Tennis Ultra Smash Deluxe on Switch.
SporeCrawler
Member
i dont know. while i do think that a lot of games would deserve a re-release due to the extremely poor sales of wiiu I would love to see nintendo focus on the future.
Jack Scofield
Member
I figure this is as good a thread as any. I just got a switch with Zelda. I have $40 in Amazon credit. Should I use that towards Mario Kart or a Pro controller?