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[titiklabingapat]

It still needs a GPS though.

I think mainline Pokemon is pretty much fine for the Switch. They'll just let their mobile games remain on phones.

So a more premium Switch then down the line. Could be this gen, could be next gen. Social mobile gaming that forces you to move around is absolutely massive. Could be the future of the franchise.

You think a massive amount of people would play Pokémon GO on a tablet?

I see a surprising amount of tablet Pokemon Go users when I'm out on raids. The Switch form factor is more portable than many tablets.

 

[jtb]

Insane attach rates. Like beyond Halo 1/Xbox level attach rate.

 

[Neff]

Really? SFV at 1.6 million? I knew it wasn't very successful but thats pretty bad for a sequel

SFV is a prime example of a game doing the opposite of hitting the ground running. Insultingly undercooked at release and honestly still not all that much fun even now.

 

[Instro]

Will be interesting to watch, I do wonder what software they are going to have though seeing as some of their biggest franchises are already out and they are still keeping 3DS alive? I guess there's probably tonnes of handheld stuff that I just don't know of as I don't play it.

Well in terms of franchises with 10+ million sales potential you still have Pokemon, Smash, Animal Crossing, 3D Mario(coming this year of course), and 2D Mario. Potentially a casual/minigame franchise could also break that mark, but I think with 1-2 Switch's mediocre sales they may be done in that realm for the most part. After that you have franchises with 5+ million potential like Donkey Kong, Tomodachi Life, Luigi's Mansion, and "handheld" Zelda. I think there's enough there to carry the system for the next few years, with intermixed lesser selling franchises along the way, and additional sequels to the mega franchises ready for another go. I'm sure Nintendo will also be continuing to try their hand with new franchises over the next few years that could really make a meaningful impact to hardware sales.

 

[ITSMILNER]

Splatoon 2 has also hit 1 million sales worldwide now hasn't it? Fantastic start for Switch and I hope the trend continues

 

[King_Moc]

Hours? Where? Here in the US they're gone in moments.

I'm in the UK. It does take a little while for them to go here.

 

[CaviarMeths]

So a more premium Switch then down the line. Could be this gen, could be next gen. Social mobile gaming that forces you to move around is absolutely massive. Could be the future of the franchise.



I see a surprising amount of tablet Pokemon Go users when I'm out on raids. The Switch form factor is more portable than many tablets.

The 3G Vita model did a pretty good job at demonstrating that a console with a data package is kind of a mess that few consumers were interested in buying anyway.

 

[Cpt Lmao]

Sounds like an embarrassing fear to me, you ain't making your case here homeboy.

Nice one cutting out the rest of my post, not that I need it.

So you were over the moon that big third party titles at Switch launch were Bomberman and SF2?

 

[foxuzamaki]

+1 to Switch. Finally was able to buy one at the Seattle target 30 minutes ago, there was actually 2 in stock, which is lucky because someone was waiting to buy one along with me.

It's crazy to think how many Switch units would have sold if there wasn't a Nand flash shortage world wide.

Late but congrats, make sure to share your FC with us

 

[JoeM86]

I'm in the UK. It does take a little while for them to go here.

Yeah but the UK has terrible taste in games

 

[Principate]

Nintendo revenue be like

Source

 

[pretty done]

It's actually insane how bad the Wii U performed

 

[King_Moc]

Yeah but the UK has terrible taste in games

Yep...agreed.

 

[Camper Van Beethoven]

It's actually insane how bad the Wii U performed

Not really. It was a terrible console and concept.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Nice one cutting out the rest of my post, not that I need it.

So you were over the moon that big third party titles at Switch launch were Bomberman and SF2?

I was actually pretty confident Zelda itself would carry the Switch over till the rest of the first party games and smaller indies that began being announced before the launch trickled in. Then I was mostly justified in thinking that after release month smashed expectations. I'm not confident in it being a Wiipeat, but I was confident enough that it'd do better than Gamecube.

 

[Mr Swine]

I do wonder if Nintendo/Switch:

1. Will have enough stock for Black Friday in the US and Xmas worldwide

2. If Switch can outsell GameCube at the end of next year

3. If sales can keep up next year or if it will start slowing down after 1 year out

Does anyone know if Foxcon starts producing more consoles will eventually slow down the production next year when the next gen iPhones are being made?

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I do wonder if Nintendo/Switch:

1. Will have enough stock for Black Friday in the US and Xmas worldwide

2. If Switch can outsell GameCube at the end of next year

3. If sales can keep up next year or if it will start slowing down after 1 year out

Does anyone know if Foxcon starts producing more consoles will eventually slow down the production next year when the next gen iPhones are being made?

100% no way they will. Stock in EU (aside from France maybe) should be ok, but I think they could sell 10 million units worldwide October-December if they had the stock to do so, and they obviously won't.

 

[jts]

It's actually insane how bad the Wii U performed

I agree. Coming off the Wii's cultural phenomenon it feels like the baseline should have been way higher than the Wii U's abysmal performance, regardless of execution.

Although, it is clear that the "Wii" brand was dying off quite fast in its last years. But that can be normal for products running its course and people just need a clear message that the successor is now out. Hence, even by simply calling it Wii 2, Nintendo would have probably ensured significantly better sales for the platform in my opinion.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

The Wii was the abnormal, not the Wii U, imo. Nintendo consoles have been selling worse until the Wiii came out.

I guess the Switch has great potential, though.

 

[DrWong]

The Wii was the abnormal, not the Wii U, imo. Nintendo consoles have been selling worse until the Wiii came out.

I guess the Switch has great potential, though.

So the Switch is "abnormal" too?

 

[z0m3le]

But that's not how it would work. For one thing, launch units must ship by a month before the date, to make it to shelves on time. So the 2.74m were made in 3 months, not 4. However, this was during months when Apple was not hogging components. If Nintendo started in March 2016 for November they'd have more time, but they'd also be producing less per month, just like they are now in spring and summer 2017. Instead of 3 months at ~30k per day, they'd have 6 months at ~22k per day. That would increase launch to a putative 3.96m, and provide an extra 750k in the following quarter (with no Apple competition). But then the imaginary third quarter would be lower than real Switch, somewhat mitigating the advantage.

All in all, they'd get about 1.7m more. But as I said, this would be pretty meaningless overall. They'd still be behind PS4 (and now with no "but it didn't launch at holiday" rationalization available), and within a year they'd be back behind Wii, GBA, and DS again.

...In theory. This is all very tenuous projection, and I wouldn't put much stock in it. But I also don't think there's a more plausible version where they could achieve the "extra 2m at launch, extra 3m overall" level you suggest.

4m for November 2016 would not be a punitive number, December would then receive the higher ~30k per day production with no Apple competition that you outline in the real production schedule, this would continue into Jan and Feb as well, giving the Switch an additional 2.7m (instead of the ~2m they produced during this apple dominated spring and summer months) giving us 6.7m (or around the ~7m I mentioned in my last post)

 

[Kenzodielocke]

So the Switch is "abnormal" too?

Didn't say that. The Switch probably will show that there is no trend anymore.

 

[mavericktopgun]

It's actually insane how bad the Wii U performed

Indeed. But lets be honest there are enough reasons:

-bad Hardware
-BAD Marketing
-bad Name
-bad and slow and clunky OS
-bad Controller

 

[JoeM86]

Didn't say that. The Switch probably will show that there is no trend anymore.

Until the next time Nintendo does a device which does below expectations, in which case it'll be the "anomaly" to solve internet wars again

 

[Cpt Lmao]

I was actually pretty confident Zelda itself would carry the Switch over till the rest of the first party games and smaller indies that began being announced before the launch trickled in. Then I was mostly justified in thinking that after release month smashed expectations. I'm not confident in it being a Wiipeat, but I was confident enough that it'd do better than Gamecube.

Really? I think this could have gone either way considering

1. Zelda was coming to Wii U, and most early adopters would have owned one.
2. The next first party game following Zelda was a port of Mario Kart.
3. Indie games are transient, and hardly sell systems.

It felt like the hardware resonated with people more than anything, and it's always very difficult to judge public opinion. Switch's success was never obvious, and it was perfectly reasonable that the awful January conference would stifle positive expectations.

 

[GamePlay Johnny]

So what happens after a price cut and an exclusive Pokemon game?

I'm pretty optimistic about the future of the system.

 

[mavericktopgun]

So what happens after a price cut and an exclusive Pokemon game?

I'm pretty optimistic about the future of the system.

I think it will sell tens of millions.

 

[samar11]

Insane attach rates. Like beyond Halo 1/Xbox level attach rate.

People buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games, that is why the attach rate is so good.

 

[D.Lo]

I agree. Coming off the Wii's cultural phenomenon it feels like the baseline should have been way higher than the Wii U's abysmal performance, regardless of execution.

Although, it is clear that the "Wii" brand was dying off quite fast in its last years. But that can be normal for products running its course and people just need a clear message that the successor is now out. Hence, even by simply calling it Wii 2, Nintendo would have probably ensured significantly better sales for the platform in my opinion.

Literally just calling it the Wii 2 would have added 5 million, minimum. Seriously.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

So what happens after a price cut and an exclusive Pokemon game?

I'm pretty optimistic about the future of the system.

 

[Sparkedglory]

Good to hear! I'm happy for Nintendo. I personally plan on getting a switch sometime in the future

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Really? I think this could have gone either way considering

1. Zelda was coming to Wii U, and most early adopters would have owned one.
2. The next first party game following Zelda was a port of Mario Kart.
3. Indie games are transient, and hardly sell systems.

It felt like the hardware resonated with people more than anything, and it's always very difficult to judge public opinion. Switch's success was never obvious, and it was perfectly reasonable that the awful January conference would stifle positive expectations.

I think that's a bit of an understatement. Most people on here were outright calling the death of the Switch upon arrival, including Evilore. I will admit the Switch Experience 2017 did underwhelm for the most part, but I processed my expectations with the tidbits that kept arriving in the interim between the conference and the release as well as going by past patterns.

Twilight Princess had the same deal, where the game was released on two consoles, but the difference between buying it on a new console over the old one was staggering (same with Breath of the Wild) and Mario Kart 8 was among the highest selling games on the Wii U despite its meager worldwide market (Same with Deluxe being a launch window title for a stock-strained console). I assumed the appeal of Mario Kart 8 is unknown to probably a lot of the other Switch consumers that aren't part of the Wii U audience.

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

So the Switch is "abnormal" too?

Too soon to tell.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Has anyone figured out for sure if the software number includes eshop only sales?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Has anyone figured out for sure if the software number includes eshop only sales?

These numbers are straight from Nintendo, so I'd think so.

 

[Starchasing]

I think that's a bit of an understatement. Most people on here were outright calling the death of the Switch upon arrival, including Evilore. I will admit the Switch Experience 2017 did underwhelm for the most part, but I processed my expectations with the tidbits that kept arriving in the interim between the conference and the release as well as going by past patterns.

Twilight Princess had the same deal, where the game was released on two consoles, but the difference between buying it on a new console over the old one was staggering (same with Breath of the Wild) and Mario Kart 8 was among the highest selling games on the Wii U despite its meager worldwide market (Same with Deluxe being a launch window title for a stock-strained console). I assumed the appeal of Mario Kart 8 is unknown to probably a lot of the other Switch consumers that aren't part of the Wii U audience.

People on Neogaf dont value local multiplayer and easy of use as much as the market does.

As soon as i saw the concept of 2 player multiplayer anywhere I knew the switch was going to be a hit. Id did not know if it was going to be a big huge or just a hit. I still dont know. If Nintendo plays their cards well they might as well send 100 millions Switches.

 

[James Scott]

Nice one cutting out the rest of my post, not that I need it.

So you were over the moon that big third party titles at Switch launch were Bomberman and SF2?

Wii U launched with like 30 3rd party games and all that did was a lot of low effort releases that competed for a small market.
All Switch needed was one big game and BOTW was that.
Even if it took almost two months for Mk8D, with their supply issues it all seemingly worked out

 

[Skittzo0413]

These numbers are straight from Nintendo, so I'd think so.

They used to never give numbers for eshop only games, at least with the 3DS and Wii U. I'm wondering if we know definitively that that's changed now. Since that would make the third party software sales situation look much better.

 

[whyamihere]

OMG

 

[LegendofLex]

Has anyone figured out for sure if the software number includes eshop only sales?

They aren't counting eShop only games in the "number of new titles released" (there have been more than 17 games released on Switch if you count eShop only games) so the answer to that is definitely "no."

 

[Charles Brandon]

Really? I think this could have gone either way considering

1. Zelda was coming to Wii U, and most early adopters would have owned one.
2. The next first party game following Zelda was a port of Mario Kart.
3. Indie games are transient, and hardly sell systems.

It felt like the hardware resonated with people more than anything, and it's always very difficult to judge public opinion. Switch's success was never obvious, and it was perfectly reasonable that the awful January conference would stifle positive expectations.

I think it was Zelda. When the reviews came out for that it crossed over into the public consciousness. People suddenly started to pay attention. I think a lot of Wii U owners just shrugged and said "I've been waiting for this game for so long, I damned if I'm not going to play the best version, Ima get this console eventually anyway so...". Also one other thing Nintendo got right is emphasise nostalgia. Retro gaming is huge now, the NES Classic reminded everyone how much they loved those franchises and then BOOM Switch is here and it has NEW and AMAZING Zelda, Bomberman, Mario Kart, Street Fighter 2 etc etc HYPE HYPE HYPE

 

[Skittzo0413]

They aren't counting eShop only games in the "number of new titles released" (there have been more than 17 games released on Switch if you count eShop only games) so the answer to that is definitely "no."

That's what I figured, since that's how they've always done it. But Mpl90's post had me a bit confused:

...Actually, I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

This is the specification about software shipments in older financial reports

While this is the notes' section for the last two financial results' reports

With the ratio of retail titles to eshop only titles being so tiny now, I really think they need to start reporting eshop only software sales too. That will tell a much clearer story about attach rate and third party/indie success (or lack thereof).

For reference I have (I believe) 6 retail games (Zelda, 1,2,S, MK8D, Splatoon 2, BoI, Cave Story) and 13 eshop only games.

 

[Liabe Brave]

4m for November 2016 would not be a punitive number, December would then receive the higher ~30k per day production with no Apple competition that you outline in the real production schedule, this would continue into Jan and Feb as well, giving the Switch an additional 2.7m (instead of the ~2m they produced during this apple dominated spring and summer months) giving us 6.7m (or around the ~7m I mentioned in my last post)

You're just repeating the exact numbers I said. Yes, this imaginary Switch would be several millions higher (though) its next quarter would be lower than the real one we'll get, drawing down the advantage a little).

But I did not say holiday launch would've done nothing. I'm saying it wouldn't matter much to the overall trajectory of the console. Switch would still be behind GBA and PS4, and they'd fall behind Wii and 3DS in the first year just the same (then later pass 3DS and be passed by DS). Within a couple years of the success I expect, those extra launch units would be insignificant.

That's what I mean by "launch season doesn't matter much". Level of success or failure is determined by continued sales, not the first couple months.

 

[Skittzo0413]

You're just repeating the exact numbers I said. Yes, this imaginary Switch would be several millions higher (though) its next quarter would be lower than the real one we'll get, drawing down the advantage a little).

But I did not say holiday launch would've done nothing. I'm saying it wouldn't matter much to the overall trajectory of the console. Switch would still be behind GBA and PS4, and they'd fall behind Wii and 3DS in the first year just the same (then later pass 3DS and be passed by DS). Within a couple years of the success I expect, those extra launch units would be insignificant.

That's what I mean by "launch season doesn't matter much". Level of success or failure is determined by continued sales, not the first couple months.

I'd say launch season matters only in terms of comparing sales for a period of under 12 months, which is why people are referring to it when we compare sales of consoles in their first 4 months. After that first year period it becomes completely meaningless as you said, since continued sales are far more important for overall success.

But a holiday launch for the Switch would have inflated those early numbers such that they'd be higher than they are 4 months in, which is really all that those posts seem to be discussing. That should balance out once the Switch has seen its first holiday season.

 

[z0m3le]

I'd say launch season matters only in terms of comparing sales for a period of under 12 months, which is why people are referring to it when we compare sales of consoles in their first 4 months. After that first year period it becomes completely meaningless as you said, since continued sales are far more important for overall success.

But a holiday launch for the Switch would have inflated those early numbers such that they'd be higher than they are 4 months in, which is really all that those posts seem to be discussing. That should balance out once the Switch has seen its first holiday season.

That's pretty much it, holiday launch mattered when comparing the first 4 months and the overall trajectory of the console. 6.7m is a higher trajectory after 4 months than the 4.7 switch got, and it still would have been sold out everywhere, which is another reason we can't really tell trajectory, because Nand flash won't be in short supply forever, it's production will increase to meet new demands, it just takes time.