Some of the "sources" here are absurd. Do you honestly believe that anyone on the planet can accurately state there is a "25% chance" of someone retiring, or a "75% chance" of changing strategies? What does that even mean? How can you claim such numbers for such abstractions? It makes me feel the whole source is a sham, and taints any discussion.
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The Real Possibility of Imminent Change to Nintendo's Strategy (at Q3 Results)
- Thread starter Aquamarine
- Start date
w1gglyjones
Member
Nintendo clearly needs to make some changes and they know it. Their biggest strengths right now are a very strong balance sheet and some competitive advantages. Having a strong balance sheet lets them take time in making these decisions while still preserving all of the good business structures and assets they have in place. Large, rash, reactionary decisions are their biggest enemy here, and they need to and can afford to take it slow.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
C'mon, the XBone launched with loads of 720p games. Drop the whole "old" gen shit. Wii U is just as next gen as the rest of them. It's a spectrum dolt.
Hip Hop
Member
In terms of performance the Wii U is not much more powerful than an Xbox 360. Which is an 8 year old console.
Its not as next gen as any other major console.
w1gglyjones
Member
A game with great AI and shitty graphics sounds pretty next gen right about now.
airmangataosenai
Member
I don't feel they are as rigid about these things as some claim though. Afterall, they had 3D on the 3DS despite the failure of the Virtual Boy and two-screen console gaming despite it not taking off on the Gamecube.
Neon_Icarus
Member
If Nintendo wants big third party franchises like Call of Duty and Assasin's Creed to flourish on their next console, simply providing a techically capable platform isn't enough. They need to produce exclusive games of their own that appeal to that audience (preferably at launch). Nothing communicates louder "what a console is about " than it's exclusives.
Remember Goldeneye 007? That was the reason the N64 had quite a few M-rated games from Western third parties and managed to sell more than 30m despite utterly flopping in Japan. With games like Perfect Dark, Killer Instinct, Eternal Darkness and more they were on track to having a decent range of Western "core-oriented" franchises and developers under their belt. Then they just gave up...
Remember Goldeneye 007? That was the reason the N64 had quite a few M-rated games from Western third parties and managed to sell more than 30m despite utterly flopping in Japan. With games like Perfect Dark, Killer Instinct, Eternal Darkness and more they were on track to having a decent range of Western "core-oriented" franchises and developers under their belt. Then they just gave up...
1st Course
Member
So many different opinions here, but I think everyone can agree that this year will be the peak year for the Wii U. If the Wii U failed to make a comeback this year, I think people should just drop the whole comeback thing altogether.
w1gglyjones
Member
Comeback? No sir. The choice is between continuing it on life support or pulling the plug. What constitutes a comeback for you?
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Quick question for the "mobile support will kill the brand" crowd.
Would you argue that the release of GTA 3, Vice City, and San Andreas hurt the release of GTA5 on consoles? Did it create the unrealistic expectation that GTA 5 was going to be on mobile in the near future? If so, why? If not, why not? How about Dead Space and Deus Ex?
Keep in mind that the GTA3 trilogy were originally released between 2001 and 2004, and the games that investors expect Nintendo to port to smartphones are often from 1985-1997.
Would you argue that the release of GTA 3, Vice City, and San Andreas hurt the release of GTA5 on consoles? Did it create the unrealistic expectation that GTA 5 was going to be on mobile in the near future? If so, why? If not, why not? How about Dead Space and Deus Ex?
Keep in mind that the GTA3 trilogy were originally released between 2001 and 2004, and the games that investors expect Nintendo to port to smartphones are often from 1985-1997.
1st Course
Member
Selling at least 10m in FY 2014 (April 1, 2014 - March 31, 2015)
PotionBleue
Member
GTA is already multiplatform to begin with, same with your other examples
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Of the gaming innovations that are begging to bud and nintendo might have the resources to accomplish:
1. Handheld/Console Hybrid
2. Virtual Reality
3. Augmented Reality/wearable computing
4. A smartphone/tablet that's actually great for games but good at non-games too
5. Subscription based, all you can eat game library with a cheap, subsidized console
6. Motion controls beyond what's out there now that somehow accomplish that 1:1 dream that seemed to die
I'd guess the next direction would have to be one of those 6 things.
If they really do decide to say the Gamecube was good enough because the gamecube at least made profits, and simply make cheap traditional consoles, then they're really going to have to find a way to increase profit margins on software, because games cost a lot more to make now than they did back then.
Other than that, third party or handheld only is all that remains as far as I can tell.
1. Handheld/Console Hybrid
2. Virtual Reality
3. Augmented Reality/wearable computing
4. A smartphone/tablet that's actually great for games but good at non-games too
5. Subscription based, all you can eat game library with a cheap, subsidized console
6. Motion controls beyond what's out there now that somehow accomplish that 1:1 dream that seemed to die
I'd guess the next direction would have to be one of those 6 things.
If they really do decide to say the Gamecube was good enough because the gamecube at least made profits, and simply make cheap traditional consoles, then they're really going to have to find a way to increase profit margins on software, because games cost a lot more to make now than they did back then.
Other than that, third party or handheld only is all that remains as far as I can tell.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
That's a statement of fact, it's not a reason why this strategy wouldn't work for Nintendo. GTA5 still sold 30 million in a couple of months despite having a smartphone presence for the older titles.
I don't see why this would be impossible for say...Metroid or The Legend of Zelda. Not the 30 million bit, but maintaining a strong interest for new releases despite pandering to the crowd who wants older titles on the go for cheap. The VC is doing nothing to sell their current hardware. Why not get these 20 year old games on as much hardware as possible?
francisnobleman
Banned
I feel sorry for the Wii U.
But in the other hand, if the console bombs really hard price will come down and I'll get to play the usuall Nintendo IP I love for cheap.
And yes, Iwata needs to be fired. Someone more in touch with the modern times should take the lead and overhaull the company.
But in the other hand, if the console bombs really hard price will come down and I'll get to play the usuall Nintendo IP I love for cheap.
And yes, Iwata needs to be fired. Someone more in touch with the modern times should take the lead and overhaull the company.
To me they should do that and release a phone controller as well.
w1gglyjones
Member
Miracle.
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Honestly, they can't makes their own traditional consoles AND sell on iOS/android. They can either do the former, or go completely multiplatform, but not the former and latter together.
Thanks for the great opening post Aquamarine!
Agree. Nintendo needs to set the example if they want third party developers and publishers to feel that their games will sell to the audience that buys a Nintendo home console. The thing is that Nintendo has done this in the past as you have said. With the N64 and GameCube.
However that was a different Nintendo then the one that exist now. The Nintendo that did that had a Nintendo of America that was empowered to make deals with developers, publishers, and license holders that focused on their western market. A NoA that grabbed the Star Wars license. That had their own major league baseball titles that leveraged the very baseball team Nintendo owned and still owns. A Nintendo in general that when they weren't getting the fighting games grabbed wrestling games instead. A sport/entertainment that is powerful in both Japan and outside of it!
If Nintendo is going to turn things around they need to go back to some of that. They need to realize and accept they have to cater to the western market a LOT more then they are now. It's okay if some games don't do well in Japan as long as they do well outside of Japan where people clearly want what Sony and Microsoft are offering and helping to maintain. Hell those games might do well in Japan as taste there might have changed some.
The variety has to be there. There is really none and the little that there is Nintendo doesn't seem to give a damn about it. Why would they have something like Wonderful 101 made and not do a damn thing to really make sure it sells. That's really something I would hope is brought up by investors. Nintendo's lack of advertising overall when it comes to marketing of actual products, the Wii U especially for an entire year, and marketing of the actual brand. Shaping it proactively instead of allowing the media to shape it with bad news.
Agree. Nintendo needs to set the example if they want third party developers and publishers to feel that their games will sell to the audience that buys a Nintendo home console. The thing is that Nintendo has done this in the past as you have said. With the N64 and GameCube.
However that was a different Nintendo then the one that exist now. The Nintendo that did that had a Nintendo of America that was empowered to make deals with developers, publishers, and license holders that focused on their western market. A NoA that grabbed the Star Wars license. That had their own major league baseball titles that leveraged the very baseball team Nintendo owned and still owns. A Nintendo in general that when they weren't getting the fighting games grabbed wrestling games instead. A sport/entertainment that is powerful in both Japan and outside of it!
If Nintendo is going to turn things around they need to go back to some of that. They need to realize and accept they have to cater to the western market a LOT more then they are now. It's okay if some games don't do well in Japan as long as they do well outside of Japan where people clearly want what Sony and Microsoft are offering and helping to maintain. Hell those games might do well in Japan as taste there might have changed some.
The variety has to be there. There is really none and the little that there is Nintendo doesn't seem to give a damn about it. Why would they have something like Wonderful 101 made and not do a damn thing to really make sure it sells. That's really something I would hope is brought up by investors. Nintendo's lack of advertising overall when it comes to marketing of actual products, the Wii U especially for an entire year, and marketing of the actual brand. Shaping it proactively instead of allowing the media to shape it with bad news.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The difference is that Rockstar doesn't have to give a crap about hardware sales.
No, that's my point. The Wii U is the next generation of nintendo hardware. Literally next gen.
The bar for "next gen" seems to be arbitrary depending on the person. Bring PC into it and all consoles are "old gen". Whatever that means. I was hoping that after all the next gen consoles got released people would stop throwing the term around as some sort of qualifier. But alas, seems that some people still need to lump their console of choice into an arbitrarily "better" category. Ok, if that helps you sleep at night.
Natureboy99
Banned
I'm pretty sure smart phones is the only way they can go. They have lost the software making crown, so iPhone ports is their only way out.
The Virtual Console needs to be on smartphones. Nintendo likes to champion the VC as a system seller, but I don't think many people are buying their consoles just to play retro games. Those retro games would sell big numbers on smartphones. Piracy, of course, would eat into a lot of those sales, so perhaps they could create a Nintendo service, ala Netflix. Pay a marginal monthly fee and get access to their VAST catalog of games from the NES to N64, Game Boy to Game Boy Advance. As smartphones and tablets get stronger, Nintendo could keep adding generations of games, like DS (just split the screen in half to emulate the double screens) and Gamecube. This service would also be available on whatever hardware Nintendo has on the market.
Maybe that's a dumb idea -- I'm no business guy. But just releasing a suped-up console won't restore Nintendo to video game dominance. Unless Sony and/or Microsoft leave the video game business, Nintendo will never get third parties back. In my opinion, the successor to Wii U can't simply be a new console...it needs to be radically different from what is out there right now.
EDIT: Also, I believe Nintendo needs to find a way to be successful with ONLY their first-party titles. Relying on third parties to prop up their game lineup won't work anymore.
Maybe that's a dumb idea -- I'm no business guy. But just releasing a suped-up console won't restore Nintendo to video game dominance. Unless Sony and/or Microsoft leave the video game business, Nintendo will never get third parties back. In my opinion, the successor to Wii U can't simply be a new console...it needs to be radically different from what is out there right now.
EDIT: Also, I believe Nintendo needs to find a way to be successful with ONLY their first-party titles. Relying on third parties to prop up their game lineup won't work anymore.
Its not complicated. There are two different things next-gen can apply to as it can have two different meaning depending on the context of the conversation.
A. Chronological release date. All consoles released in a similar period (though there is no hard, set timeline) may be considered of the same generation. Even Ouya.
B. Performance. Which is provided by the latest technology which was impossble (literally non-existent) or financially impractical (too expensive) in the previous chronological generation as technology marches in predictable steps every 12 to 18 months or so (Moore's law...roughly).
Either can be valid depending on the conversation. When talking about the latest game engines and are touted as providing unprecendented visuals on "next-gen" hardware. We are taking B. Into consideration and willfully...and rightly...ignoring A.
People saying Nintendo should develop more Western-targeted content are...right. Completely right. This doesn't mean they should just develop them. Why should they? Make both your classic offering and brand new offering for Western audiences.
So far, we've seen lots of collaborations between Japanese third parties and Nintendo; they could apply, more or less, the same policy with specific Western devs. So far, it happened only with Warner Bros. for Lego City Undercover but...in the same vein of Bayonetta 2, why not Beyond Good and Evil 2? And that's the first example I come up with. Or, a brand new 007 game in collaboration with whoever has the license now. Since it's Western developers we're talking about, having exclusives of gigantic brands is impossible (with Japanese devs, it's far "easier"), so they should pursue the collaboration route here, as well as developing Western exclusives on their own.
Having Western-aimed content = trying to attract Western audiences. But they can perfectly continue their classic games, that would result in attracting far more customers, of different kind, which results in sales, and developers, and games, and audiences, and...
it goes without saying, doesn't it?
It could be a bit redundant for their classic audience, but I'm still shocked they haven't talked with Disney yet to create the first Disney classic...to play, not just to watch. A great collaboration between Japanese devs and Western directors (people like Bird and Lasseter), for a game that is marketed like one of the famous Disney Classic (like Snowhite, The Lion King, Aladin), but this time everyone can play. That's money, lots of them.
So far, we've seen lots of collaborations between Japanese third parties and Nintendo; they could apply, more or less, the same policy with specific Western devs. So far, it happened only with Warner Bros. for Lego City Undercover but...in the same vein of Bayonetta 2, why not Beyond Good and Evil 2? And that's the first example I come up with. Or, a brand new 007 game in collaboration with whoever has the license now. Since it's Western developers we're talking about, having exclusives of gigantic brands is impossible (with Japanese devs, it's far "easier"), so they should pursue the collaboration route here, as well as developing Western exclusives on their own.
Having Western-aimed content = trying to attract Western audiences. But they can perfectly continue their classic games, that would result in attracting far more customers, of different kind, which results in sales, and developers, and games, and audiences, and...
it goes without saying, doesn't it?
It could be a bit redundant for their classic audience, but I'm still shocked they haven't talked with Disney yet to create the first Disney classic...to play, not just to watch. A great collaboration between Japanese devs and Western directors (people like Bird and Lasseter), for a game that is marketed like one of the famous Disney Classic (like Snowhite, The Lion King, Aladin), but this time everyone can play. That's money, lots of them.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
This sounds like basically, they are going to stick their head in the sand for another couple months. Japan cannot carry a global console.
Supposedly Nintendo has billions. Uncharted 2 was what, 50 million dollar budget? That's a lot of Uncharteds.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Nope lol.
The majority of their sales and revenue come from the West, theres nothing suggesting they look at Japan primarily to judge their business. Nevertheless, the WiiU is still doing horribly in Japan and tracking below GC.
BengaBenga
Member
The real opportunity for Nintendo is not iOS or Android imo. The trend on these platforms is towards F2P or very cheap shovelware. Nothing that could turn around Nintendo.
I think Nintendo's strategy refresh should be based on moving towards a single platform for their games that can be played on several (Nintendo) devices. That doesn't mean Nintendo can't still release a dedicated handheld and console - they just need to have similar hardware that scales the games - just like PC games run on weak and strong hardware.
Of course for this to work there needs to be an account based, cross buy system.
This would have the major benefit for Nintendo that they can focus all their development teams on a single platform. There would be much more room for new IPs, older forgotten stuff and more Western games this way. Also third party wise the console would benefit from big Japanese games like Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest that would normally be released for the next Nintendo handheld.
Seeing the reorganisation I think this is where Nintendo is headed.
Aside from that Nintendo needs to be more serious about the revenue machine that VC could be and fixing the mistakes of ditching the Western studios, but moving towards a single platform could be the main lifeline Nintendo needs.
I think Nintendo's strategy refresh should be based on moving towards a single platform for their games that can be played on several (Nintendo) devices. That doesn't mean Nintendo can't still release a dedicated handheld and console - they just need to have similar hardware that scales the games - just like PC games run on weak and strong hardware.
Of course for this to work there needs to be an account based, cross buy system.
This would have the major benefit for Nintendo that they can focus all their development teams on a single platform. There would be much more room for new IPs, older forgotten stuff and more Western games this way. Also third party wise the console would benefit from big Japanese games like Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest that would normally be released for the next Nintendo handheld.
Seeing the reorganisation I think this is where Nintendo is headed.
Aside from that Nintendo needs to be more serious about the revenue machine that VC could be and fixing the mistakes of ditching the Western studios, but moving towards a single platform could be the main lifeline Nintendo needs.
Yeah, except it's not valid when no one agrees on what definition B means. Some people would have called the 3DS a "next-gen" portable when it launched. By definition A they would be right, but definition B would be debatable. It certainly had higher preformance than its predecessor, but not much more than the PSP. Yet it also offered features its competitors didnt (3D). Most "Master Race" PC enthusiasts would probably set their bar for Next-gen higher than Ouya enthusiasts when using definition B. That kinda waters down what it means and leads to people talking about levels of "nextgenyness". The term has very little utility at that point. If you use definition A in a vaccum, each system is next gen compared to its predecessor. The tech to build the PS4 was around during last gen, but as you say it was prohibitively expensive. That means that it isn't nextgen at all compared to a high end rig 3-4 years ago.
The Wii U is nextgen compared to the Wii, considering that the price of the components (esp the gamepad) was not available at a competitive price during the Wii's lifetime. Plus the Wii U is designed differently than it's competitors so direct comparison becomes difficult. Obviously the CPU/GPU are significantly behind the new PS/XB iterations, but they also don't have the equivalent tech to control 6 controllers, two of which stream SD 60fps video with mics and cameras. It's not a level field for comparison and people should stop distorting either definition to push an agenda. And remember, now that all three are out, they are all officially current-gen.
not true.
But I've fought this fight before, truth cannot win. sigh.
if only
officially? Like made official by the UN or something?
Actually I wouldn't be surprised if the eshop apps and games come to smart phones. Crossover software and such. They already started with Pokemon and similar. IF they can't win the hardware game total they'll just expand, partially, out to the new market
Ya, I have no clue what he was talking about. 13% of Wii Hardware and 8% of Wii software was sold in japan last gen. For the Gamecube, it was 18% of Hardware and 13% of Software. For the N64, it was 17% of Hardware and 18% of Software. Even with higher margins in Japan, the vast majority of their revenue comes from the west.
Iwata needs to go, although I think there's going to be something coming before the end of the financial year to boost sales a fair bit. There has to be some reason why Iwata and Patcher forcast sales of 9m and 6m respectively. Perhaps it will be announced at this next meeting at the end of the month..?
Last I looked this is no longer true. Japan makes up an outsized portion of 3DS sales, and Wii U doesn't sell anywhere.
Edit: it's in the earnings releases under geographical sales breakdown. It's hard to copy/paste a PDF from my ipad, but last FY Japan was 33% of net sales.
Not counting q3-q4 of its fourth fiscal year, Japanese 3DS hardware sales make up 38%
In its first four fiscal years, Japanese DS hardware sales made up close to 32% of the worldwide total. By the end of the DS' lifespan, the Japanese share was 21%.
Japan is quick to adapt and quick to saturate. I think their 3DS share will end up higher than their DS share since handhelds are declining faster in the west, but they'll still end up with a share of under 30%.
The point of selling your own hardware in this business is to then sell lots of software. Third party software.
If Nintendo doesn't attempt to change its brand and image, then it will never draw third parties back in. This is the stark reality of their situation.
The conclusion is simple. Overhaul the entire business to try and appeal to the demographics who buy third party software, or leave the hardware business. Staying the course is a long road to oblivion.
If Nintendo doesn't attempt to change its brand and image, then it will never draw third parties back in. This is the stark reality of their situation.
The conclusion is simple. Overhaul the entire business to try and appeal to the demographics who buy third party software, or leave the hardware business. Staying the course is a long road to oblivion.
Maybe so, but in the meantime Japan is over represented in nintendo's sales. It's reasonable for them to be getting special attention. There's no indication the 3DS is going to sell anything like the ds did in the west.
I finally figured out how to show the net sales numbers.
gingerbeardman
Member
Say what? We're talking about hardware here. And in 2013 Nintendo had what is probably their best ever year for software.
Maybe so, but in the meantime Japan is over represented in nintendo's sales. It's reasonable for them to be getting special attention. There's no indication the 3DS is going to sell anything like the ds did in the west.
I finally figured out how to show the net sales numbers.
I think this is already turning around. US Q3 sales for the 3DS will be close to a million higher than Japanese sales, and the difference will be even larger when you throw in Canada and the rest of the Americas.
DS's peak year in Japan was FY2007, which was its third FY. DS sales declined pretty quickly afterwards with a brief pause in sales drop when the DSi released. North American DS sales peaked in FY2010 (its sixth FY).
Japanese 3DS sales seem to be following the DS, with the system down YoY even with the release of Monster Hunter 4 and Pokemon XY. North America is sort of all over the place (2012 was down on 2011, but this year should be up on 2012), but I have no doubt that the 3DS will enjoy a longer tail than it will in Japan.
Overall, Nintendo isn't doing that well anywhere. Japan hasn't suffered as big a drop from the DS to the 3DS as the west, but their (worldwide) net sales are a third of what they were in 2009.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Ports of 10-20 year old games don't sell hardware, at least not in the West, and especially not straight ROM dumps.
I'm still not seeing a reason why a port of say, Super Mario Bros., would hinder the sales of a hypothetical NSMB 3. If anything, it would build brand awareness around the new products.
Square is currently publishing the old FF and DQ games on phones, but both franchises are still thoroughly locked in on console and handheld.
Square doesn't manufacture hardware. This isn't difficult. Virtual console was quite popular on Wii
But that's not a very good reason. That only makes sense if there's a large cohort who will buy a $300 console to play VC games, and then will buy additional games for it, but won't bother if there's s 20 year old ROM dump available on ios. I would be surprised to learn that there's anyone at all who fits that description.
Fourth Storm
Member
I agree they need a massive change in direction in several key areas. Online services are woefully lacking. I wonder how much of an investment in servers and whatnot it would take to reach 2006 Xbox Live levels of functionality. Or if things like party chat and what not is still "copying" to Iwata, even though it's a basic expectation in our connected society.
I mean, they have video chat on Wii U, but I honestly don't know one other person irl to try it out with. Why do we never hear of this feature? Perhaps if it was one of the apps that could be launched from the home menu, it would prove more useful.
Father_Brain
Banned
Because success is a poor teacher, and that very success is what convinced them that their "ignore the rest of the industry (especially the West) as much as possible and try to catch lightning in a bottle again" approach would be sustainable as Wii U entered early R&D and software development. We can see how well that worked out.
No, this is absolute nonsense and I still recall when people said the same thing about Sony's absurd prediction of shipping 10M Vitas in its first full fiscal year. Iwata's and Pachter's laughable predictions are based on delusion (perhaps more stubbornness at this point) and ignorance, respectively, nothing more. Any Super Secret Savior Project would have been announced some time ago.
Analysts pull stuff out of their asses. There is no science behind it.