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[L~A]

David Gibson (analyst) posted a few tweets about Nintendo's financials :

Nintendo - up another 4.3% today...JP broker saying company to announce change in strategy to smartphones on Jan 30th results - we disagree.

Nintendo - 3Q results meeting called "Strategy Session and Results Meeting" but doesnt stop some think change is coming. Always called that!

Nintendo - #1 priority for FY3/14 was improve 3DS sales internationally...+21% YoY in 2H we estimate= done.

Nintendo - WiiU we now forecast 4.3m for FY3/14 down from 6.8m prior, but Dec in JP was 26x Sept levels driven by Super Mario 3D World

Nintendo - we think mgmt will conclude software line-up is beginning to improve WiiU performance and hence no change in hardware strategy

Nintendo - In 3Q we estimate 3DS/Wii is driving 75% of gross profit, so WiiU miss isn't as big a drag as some expect.Forex huge benefit too.

Nintendo - we expect them to announce share buy-back of 5% of company from Yamauchi family members as they need to pay 45% inheritance tax

Nintendo has put on US$8bn in market cap in 6 months in anticipation moving to smartphones. We dont think so,downgraded to Underperform.

Nintendo - Reggie Dec 19th comments on "experimenting" on smartphones has many thinking change coming. Dont think so king5.com/news/local/Nin…

Didn't find that thread-worthy, as it's not really "new news".

 

[spekkeh]

The best Nintendo will do is to have a miiverse app on smartphones. Thinking they're going to release Nintendo games as apps and pay licensing fees to Apple, Google, or god forbid, Microsoft, is ridiculous.

 

[Mr Swine]

The best Nintendo will do is to have a miiverse app on smartphones. Thinking they're going to release Nintendo games as apps and pay licensing fees to Apple, Google, or god forbid, Microsoft, is ridiculous.

I could see Nintendo make learning and education type of apps for the AppStore just to make the shareholders shut up lol

 

[Effect]

The best Nintendo will do is to have a miiverse app on smartphones. Thinking they're going to release Nintendo games as apps and pay licensing fees to Apple, Google, or god forbid, Microsoft, is ridiculous.

Exactly. They've mentioned a number of times that they want to leverage smartphones as a way of connecting with customers and advertising of games. They aren't about to start releasing games for iOS or Android. Not when they have a successful portable platform. I see them adding phone features to the next hand held, that are optional, before ever releasing games on smartphones. Something Sony was attempting with the 3G Vita but more realized. Not playing online games or downloading large games (that will still require wifi) but accessing information, advertisement, communication, purchasing games to be downloaded with wifi connections later either on the device or home console, etc.

 

[Mysterious]

Can you point to a single example of a videogame hardware manufacturer giving up on a major console after 2-3 years, only to have better luck with their next gaming platform?

Gamecube? What major releases came out in 2005-2006? It seems that all major internal development (including Twilight Princess) was moved to the successor, Wii. Essentially, they did give up on it since no price cut or game was able to change the trend for Gamecube. Wii's first year and launch window games were actually pretty good, both in quantity and quality. You had a full new Zelda, Metroid and Mario within the first 365 days, for example.

 

[ascii42]

Gamecube? What major releases came out in 2005-2006? It seems that all major internal development (including Twilight Princess) was moved to the successor, Wii. Essentially, they did give up on it since no price cut or game was able to change the trend for Gamecube. Wii's first year and launch window games were actually pretty good, both in quantity and quality. You had a full new Zelda, Metroid and Mario within the first 365 days, for example.

These are all of the 2004-2006 Nintendo published GameCube releases according to wikipedia

2004
Custom Robo
Donkey Konga
The Legend of Zelda: Four Swords Adventures
Mario Party 6
Mario Power Tennis
Metroid Prime 2: Echoes
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door
Pikmin 2
Pokémon Box: Ruby and Sapphire
Pokémon Colosseum
WarioWare, Inc.: Mega Party Game$
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles

2005
Battalion Wars
Dance Dance Revolution Mario Mix
Donkey Konga 2
Donkey Kong Jungle Beat
Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
Geist
Mario Party 7
Mario Superstar Baseball
Pokémon XD: Gale of Darkness
Star Fox: Assault
Super Mario Strikers

2006
Baten Kaitos Origins
Chibi-Robo!
Odama
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess

Of all the 2005-2006 releases, I own Twilight Princess and Odama, and that's it.

 

[Wowfunhappy]

Nintendo has never had a console that costed more than $250.

Actually, they've had quite a few of them if you take inflation into account.

 

[Mononoke]

Gamecube? What major releases came out in 2005-2006? It seems that all major internal development (including Twilight Princess) was moved to the successor, Wii. Essentially, they did give up on it since no price cut or game was able to change the trend for Gamecube. Wii's first year and launch window games were actually pretty good, both in quantity and quality. You had a full new Zelda, Metroid and Mario within the first 365 days, for example.

Wii was a fluke/ luck. No console has enjoyed that kind of success tapping into the mainstream/casual market before. It was the right place at the right time. Had Nintendo not been the first to hit that mainstream casual gamer (that are now moved to Smartphones/Tablets), they would have continued their sale trajectory as the gamecube.

Unless Nintendo can miraculously tap into that (and jump on some new craze before everyone else sees it), I'm not seeing it.

 

[kswiston]

Gamecube? What major releases came out in 2005-2006? It seems that all major internal development (including Twilight Princess) was moved to the successor, Wii. Essentially, they did give up on it since no price cut or game was able to change the trend for Gamecube. Wii's first year and launch window games were actually pretty good, both in quantity and quality. You had a full new Zelda, Metroid and Mario within the first 365 days, for example.

As posted above, releasing over 25 first party titles (not even counting stuff that stayed in Japan) in years 4-6 does not count as giving up on a console after 2-3 years. Gamecube got a full 5 years. Nintendo always blows their game load early in the generation. They want their biggest titles to continue selling for years. Can't do that if you are releasing right before a generation transition.

 

[Aquamarine]

A quick update:

Nintendo is "considering a change to their business strategy." I look forward to seeing that come to fruition if it comes true.

When creating this topic, I had a hunch that the new FY guidance would make some noise. I personally believed that poor holiday sales would prompt some kind of change within the company.

Clearly, Iwata's not leaving right now. Nintendo isn't going to immediately start putting out mobile games. But the wheels of change are turning within the company.

We will see if this change will grow into a fully-realized shift after Q4, or if this is little more than an investor-friendly way of "Please understand."



An update from Jefferies Group:

Nintendo (NTDOY -14.9%) shares plunge after the company reversed itself on projections, issuing guidance for a ¥35B loss in the FY ending March.

Jefferies, however, raised its PT to ¥29K and reiterated a Buy rating, noting that "Our Buy thesis on Nintendo has been predicated on the company missing the President's 'commitment' of ¥100b OP and being forced to change."

Jefferies predicates its view on the notion that Nintendo's failure will force it to move into mobile: "We believe Mario on mobile is coming."


tehrik-e-insaaf, I know you have the opinion that Jefferies Group is third-rate, but I'm just updating their opinion for consistency's sake.

 

[Mpl90]

A quick update:

Nintendo is "considering a change to their business strategy." I look forward to seeing that come to fruition if it comes true.

When creating this topic, I had a hunch that the new FY guidance would make some noise. I personally believed that poor holiday sales would prompt some kind of change within the company..

Clearly, Iwata's not leaving right now. Nintendo isn't going to immediately start putting out mobile games. But the wheels of change are turning within the company.

We will see if this change will grow into a fully-realized shift after Q4, or if this is little more than an investor-friendly way of "Please understand."

Aqua, I wanted to know more your opinion on the matter. IMHO, it sounds like this time they're serious: it's the first time I see Iwata himself stating that their current model don't work, and saying they want to restructure their business. It seems it's real. At the same time, Iwata himself stated that using mobile for helping console sales is not just "putting Mario on iOS", so he also knows the importance of brands.

Given all the recent news about heavy development restructurations, it sounds like they're going to create consoles that support the same games, more models of them for every kind of customer, with also OS and other features being shared across the platforms. wsippel posted his clear vision of that in the other thread.

And that reference to the premium model not working anymore sounds like the start of being far more flexible in pricing (which, I admit, is one of the dreams I have for this overall industry).

Plus, mobile as a tool for helping Nintendo franchises being relevant and known by the biggest amount of people possible.

What do you think? Is it a realistic expectation? And what do you think about this?

 

[Buddha Beam]

Jefferies predicates its view on the notion that Nintendo's failure will force it to move into mobile: "We believe Mario on mobile is coming."

This just isn't going to happen. Not unless they get rid of Iwata and the entire board and replace them with the short term profit crowd.

I do think Nintendo needs to move into mobile, but not by releasing it's games on iOS and Android which I assume is what these analysts and pig investors want to happen.

Following a trail similar to Amazon and releasing a gaming-focused tablet and/or smartphone (that maybe forks Android) would be their best move, IMO. Doubly so if it can use Wii U's technology to stream to a TV.