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[Sandfox]

Why not allow me to cultivate online friendships in a console format as well?

This is not a one or the other argument...It is a why the fuck not both argument!

Because Gamefreak doesn't want to develop games for both and I'm sure Nintnedo doesn't want the biggest incentive to buy their handhelds to have its sales eaten up by a console version and hurt handheld sales in the west.

That guy is stuck in a Japanese mindset where something like streetpass is actually viable, the western world is all online.

Pokemon is more popular in Japan and still has online regardless so they probably don't see that as too big of an issue.

 

[Hero of Legend]

They could 2DS Wii U by removing the GamePad, sell it for $250/$200, make the system interface not require the GamePad (obviously), patch all their games (or at least in reprints add a GamePad Required" label) to allow non-GamePad use, and call it Wii 2. Also remove Wii BC (those who want Wii BC and a GamePad in the box can still buy Wii U), and beef up the CPU (which is Broadway IIRC beefed up mainly for Wii BC) to help with better PS360 ports, but this is optional, so maybe not to allow Wii U to still play later games.

Here's a list of changes or rebranding with "GamePad-Required labels:

Super Mario 3D World = Absolutely not needed, minor adjustments are doable
Game & Wario = Will need to be required
Nintendoland = Required
New Super Mario Bros U = Already is optional
Sonic Lost World = 99% optional, I think only Rhythm Wisp still needs it, a minor adjustment
Lego City Undercover = Can be made optional, just have the scanner be on the TV and use the control stick to look around, easy breezy.
Pikmin 3 = Obviously not needed, just look back in the prequels.
Wonderful 101 = They should be able to adjust the bits where you'd need to look in the screen, maybe make it a Picture-In-Picture mode of sorts in those buildings.
ZombiU = Hard to tell, I would think they could make it optional, but the GamePad is a big selling point (all the good it's done for it...), they can just make it optional but obviously keep the GamePad controls in.

Can't think of much else out right now.

 

[Scum]

Honestly even that might be too high. I have one and I don't feel like buying games AT ALL. I think a big part of it is that the deals you can find on iOS/Steam are just so damn good that it makes those prices seem outrageous.

£19.99 - £24.99.

Do we have a shortlist of notable people who could potentially replace Iwata? It'd be interesting to consider what their own visions for Nintendo would be. (provided they don't have the same vision as Iwata of course)

I'd vote for Arakawa, but he's too comfortable in Hawaii(?) and has been for years. Probably doesn't want the hassle.

 

[Zeroth]

Are we talking about the same company that published Conkey's Bad Fur Day?

That's not exactly a good example to counter that argument.

As Nintendo was known for its family-friendly games like Mario and Pokémon, the game was the subject of controversy. Nintendo of America refused to acknowledge the game in its Nintendo Power magazine.

 

[wizzbang]

I genuinely believe the name has ... at least a fairly significant amount to do with this. Whoever came up with that name, marketing, sales, management - whoever it is has to fall on the knife and be fired - no question, it's a full spec disaster.

They tried charging $30 for brain age and $40 for nintendodogs both of which people equate to 99-1.99 games on smart phones. They also still charge $40 for games that are incredibly old on the eShop. Oh and wonderful 101 is $29 in stores while $59 on their eShop.

Their prices are absolutely insane.

Aren't they the only region locked console now too? It's like they want to be disliked.

 

[BowieZ]

I think NeoGAF should replace Iwata.

 

[Apophis2036]

Great OP !

I don't see a lot changing in 2014 tbh, Iwata will continue to spout the 'software sells hardware' line while listing the likes of Mario Kart, Smash and X as titles which will drive the install base this year.

Besides removing the tablet controller in an effort to cut the price of WiiU by a third in America (which would further confuse the mass market as to what the console actually is) his hands are tied tbh and all he can do is ride the console out until E3 2016 at the earliest and get the next console out in Winter 2016. A 2016 release would give WiiU a four year life span and not look like such a slap in the face to the few people who bought one.

I agree with an earlier poster in that they have to keep things simple for their next home console. Make it as powerful and as friendly to third parties as they can for $249 and they can release Wii motes / balance boards / tablet controllers as OPTIONS.

Their complete and utter failure to monetize their back catalogue of incredible software is one of Iwata's biggest failures IMO. The 3DS should have every NES / SNES / N64 game and WiiU every home console game available with off TV support. He could make 10% of his current financial goal on the Virtual Console alone...

I like Iwata but this whole mantra of "Don't copy the competition" handed down to him by Yamauchi is killing the company system by system.

 

[Bluemercury]

Yep. I'm speculating, but Nintendo probably saw the value in the Stamper Brothers creativity and leadership, more than they saw value in Rare itself. Rare was already notorious for long dev cycles, legendary delays and haphazard organization; who wants that if the two guy keeping it together weren't there?

Did they sold Rare when iwata was already in charge?still they could have bought it and put trusted personnel in charge....

 

[Tarsul]

great OP, but I dont agree with the conclusions. Neither Iwata stepping down nor saying anything about dropping the Wii U seems probable. As others have said: there are no easy alternatives to Iwata and Nintendo is not known to make rash decisions.

What Iwata will admit is that Mario didnt help and that there is indeed some franchise fatigue induced by too many Marios... (and yes, he should have known before) However, he will say that Mario Kart and Smash bros are different kind of calibres and that 2014 has the best games outlook for the Wii U since its release (which is true, albeit it might not be enough).

If I were in Iwata's shoes I would have worked hard to make the Wii U Gamepad optional and to sell the console without it for 200$/€ max. This would be the most important step alongside more software, more third party support, better business models (smartphone "games" that support their main catalogue; I'm talking about time wasters not full fledged games, maybe ones that level your pokemon in your main 3ds game, something like that could become big)...

It will be an interesting year to watch especially since the two other big boys have finally entered the next gen stage and will have their own problems.

 

[RoombaDance]

I used to think it was crazy to even talk about, but after seeing what they did with the 2DS, could Nintendo actually drop the gamepad from the Wii U?

They still are barely making use of it in their games. When Retro studios showed Donkey Kong at VGXs they were asked if the game used the gamepad at all. The guy seemed to have no answer prepared, and stated almost as an afterthought that it would have off-screen play enabled. I haven't seen any games announced for 2014 that justify the necessity of the controller.

The console would suddenly be $100 cheaper, but would lose its main selling point. It's a bold and risky move but they've proven capable of such things. No idea what they would do in terms of software compatibility, but it could become an optional controller. This could push the system into serious budget impulse buy territory, but would do nothing to address the biggest issue the system faces, which is 3rd party support. But Nintendo would be profiting again, so maybe they wouldn't care.


I've actually tended to think instead of ditching the controller that they're more likely to keep it for their next console as a controller sold separately. 2 years down the line they could release a console of PS4 level tech specs at a decent price. Gamepad streaming is supported but it's possible to upgrade consoles without the gamepad included.

 

[Snakeyes]

I wonder why some people here are asking for drastic changes like going mobile and/or third party instead of Nintendo fixing what they've been doing wrong since the N64 days.

- Re-invest in the West.
- Start reaching out to third parties.
- Design competitive hardware with third party input in mind.
- Put a competent online system/OS in place.
- Start making new IPs that appeal to the current market.

That's it. If Nintendo commits to these five steps and sticks to them, they will turn it around. Maybe not in a single gen, since it's hard to erase nearly two decades of mistakes overnight, but within a couple hardware cycles.

 

[Epcott]

Wrong. Iwata was referring at the time to the current (then next) fiscal year, ending in March 2014 and with results to be released in late April.

(Though he didn't literally say he'd resign if Nintendo failed to meet its operating income target, but nor did he outright deny it IIRC.)

So if there truly is a change in strategy/leadership, it will probably not happen until April (if at all)?

 

[metalslimer]

So if there truly is a change in strategy/leadership, it will probably not happen until April (if at all)?

Well sometimes when there is a CEO change they do it a quarter before the end of the fiscal year. If the Q3 results are really bad enough to get Iwata to resign, I don't see why they would wait until April. I really don't think he is going out this year though.

 

[Freezie KO]

Excellent OP. Thanks for the write-up.

From the stagnant, predictable software strategy to the complete lack of foresight on everything from the Wii market to HD development to online gaming, I hope Iwata and his board just go back to being developers. As a Wii U owner, I say the console has had easily the worst first year of any Nintendo console.

I welcome change with open arms, but I do fear there's a possibility they'd just shovel their games onto smartphones before reverting back to their old strategy of actually making compelling and creative software. I'm hoping a creatively renewed Nintendo rises from these ruins, but we'll have to see.

 

[Snakeyes]

I've actually tended to think instead of ditching the controller that they're more likely to keep it for their next console as a controller sold separately. 2 years down the line they could release a console of PS4 level tech specs at a decent price.

And everyone will have a PS4 by then too. If they're gonna play catch-up on the hardware front, it would be a lot more productive to launch 6-12 months before the next generation. And this time with hardware that's undoubtedly next-gen instead of another Wii U.

 

[alf717]

I certainly welcome big changes if Nintendo becomes far more aggressive and appeases their core fanbase the most (and I don't just mean Mario games every month of the year, I mean 3rd-parties, new core IPs, stuff that will make the press go nuts in a good way but NO mobile games please), and as long as their motto for quality never changes.

I kind of like this idea but third parties are too busy playing it safe. Even if Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty hits a Nintendo console they still have to sell it as being the better version to buy. I really doubt third parties will go out of there way to make something unique for any of the three current gen consoles unless money is shelled out for it. I'd love to third parties try unique stuff but I think they are just going to reap the reward on playing it safe. I'd rather they stay away from mobile games as well. If people want them bad enough they should use that as a reason to purchase a Nintnedo product but at the same time Nintendo should revamp the system and not trickle out titles and most importantly let them follow you from console to console or handheld to handheld. So long as they step toward making things better they could rebound.

 

[Yawnier]

Well-thought out and researched post, I give you props for that OP.

I really don't know much I can see Nintendo changing things internally in the immediate future as in this year, they just seem like such a conservative and traditional company who are in their bubble when it comes to their operation and development of games, and its odd how apathetic they seem to be acting towards the Wii U (at least that is the impression I have gotten). Looks like they are just going to ride it out in releasing half a dozen or more titles a year for the Wii U for the next few years like they did with the N64 and Gamecube even after making boneheaded decisions with those two consoles, with the N64 especially. Moreover, it wouldn't totally shock me if they have a few moderate level surprises for the January or February Nintendo Direct if HW sales are really dire worldwide either (i.e. like how they announced Wind Waker HD at last years January Direct when it had not even begun full on development).

 

[Graphics Horse]

Good post. I think they'll hold back on the smartphone games thing by virtue of the 3DS not doing so bad compared to the Wii U.
It's obvious there is a big market for consoles still, but it's not clear what space there is for another attempt from Nintendo. I'm not really seeing what could change between Jan and April, though I guess Mario Kart could be out before the FY report.

 

[WillyFive]

I wonder why some people here are asking for drastic changes like going mobile and/or third party instead of Nintendo fixing what they've been doing wrong since the N64 days.

- Re-invest in the West.
- Start reaching out to third parties.
- Design competitive hardware with third party input in mind.
- Put a competent online system/OS in place.
- Start making new IPs that appeal to the current market.

That's it. If Nintendo commits to these five steps and sticks to them, they will turn it around. Maybe not in a single gen, since it's hard to erase nearly two decades of mistakes overnight, but within a couple hardware cycles.

Yep. Going 3rd party or mobile is a horrendously stupid idea for a company like Nintendo, especially considering most of their profit comes from hardware sales. You don't get rid of your #1 most profitable venture just because it's the cool thing to do.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

They could 2DS Wii U by removing the GamePad, sell it for $250/$200, make the system interface not require the GamePad (obviously), patch all their games (or at least in reprints add a GamePad Required" label) to allow non-GamePad use, and call it Wii 2. Also remove Wii BC (those who want Wii BC and a GamePad in the box can still buy Wii U), and beef up the CPU (which is Broadway IIRC beefed up mainly for Wii BC) to help with better PS360 ports, but this is optional, so maybe not to allow Wii U to still play later games.

Here's a list of changes or rebranding with "GamePad-Required labels:

Super Mario 3D World = Absolutely not needed, minor adjustments are doable
Game & Wario = Will need to be required
Nintendoland = Required
New Super Mario Bros U = Already is optional
Sonic Lost World = 99% optional, I think only Rhythm Wisp still needs it, a minor adjustment
Lego City Undercover = Can be made optional, just have the scanner be on the TV and use the control stick to look around, easy breezy.
Pikmin 3 = Obviously not needed, just look back in the prequels.
Wonderful 101 = They should be able to adjust the bits where you'd need to look in the screen, maybe make it a Picture-In-Picture mode of sorts in those buildings.
ZombiU = Hard to tell, I would think they could make it optional, but the GamePad is a big selling point (all the good it's done for it...), they can just make it optional but obviously keep the GamePad controls in.

Can't think of much else out right now.

TW101 already has a Picture in picture mode. Its totally playable with a pro controller.

 

[The Giant]

Man, I can't wait for the big wii u direct.

 

[Trago]

I doubt that we'll see drastic short term changes. But there will be changes in the company.

Hopefully these changes bring third party developers.

 

[WillyFive]

They could 2DS Wii U by removing the GamePad, sell it for $250/$200, make the system interface not require the GamePad (obviously), patch all their games (or at least in reprints add a GamePad Required" label) to allow non-GamePad use, and call it Wii 2. Also remove Wii BC (those who want Wii BC and a GamePad in the box can still buy Wii U), and beef up the CPU (which is Broadway IIRC beefed up mainly for Wii BC) to help with better PS360 ports, but this is optional, so maybe not to allow Wii U to still play later games.

Here's a list of changes or rebranding with "GamePad-Required labels:

Super Mario 3D World = Absolutely not needed, minor adjustments are doable
Game & Wario = Will need to be required
Nintendoland = Required
New Super Mario Bros U = Already is optional
Sonic Lost World = 99% optional, I think only Rhythm Wisp still needs it, a minor adjustment
Lego City Undercover = Can be made optional, just have the scanner be on the TV and use the control stick to look around, easy breezy.
Pikmin 3 = Obviously not needed, just look back in the prequels.
Wonderful 101 = They should be able to adjust the bits where you'd need to look in the screen, maybe make it a Picture-In-Picture mode of sorts in those buildings.
ZombiU = Hard to tell, I would think they could make it optional, but the GamePad is a big selling point (all the good it's done for it...), they can just make it optional but obviously keep the GamePad controls in.

Can't think of much else out right now.

The equivalent of 2DS'ing the WiiU would be taking out HD capability out of the system. Removing the Gamepad is a completely different beast; it's making N64 games work without an analog stick and making DS games work with just one screen, it's too much a change to be worth it.

 

[Trago]

They could 2DS Wii U by removing the GamePad, sell it for $250/$200, make the system interface not require the GamePad (obviously), patch all their games (or at least in reprints add a GamePad Required" label) to allow non-GamePad use, and call it Wii 2. Also remove Wii BC (those who want Wii BC and a GamePad in the box can still buy Wii U), and beef up the CPU (which is Broadway IIRC beefed up mainly for Wii BC) to help with better PS360 ports, but this is optional, so maybe not to allow Wii U to still play later games.

Here's a list of changes or rebranding with "GamePad-Required labels:

Super Mario 3D World = Absolutely not needed, minor adjustments are doable
Game & Wario = Will need to be required
Nintendoland = Required
New Super Mario Bros U = Already is optional
Sonic Lost World = 99% optional, I think only Rhythm Wisp still needs it, a minor adjustment
Lego City Undercover = Can be made optional, just have the scanner be on the TV and use the control stick to look around, easy breezy.
Pikmin 3 = Obviously not needed, just look back in the prequels.
Wonderful 101 = They should be able to adjust the bits where you'd need to look in the screen, maybe make it a Picture-In-Picture mode of sorts in those buildings.
ZombiU = Hard to tell, I would think they could make it optional, but the GamePad is a big selling point (all the good it's done for it...), they can just make it optional but obviously keep the GamePad controls in.

Can't think of much else out right now.

I think that's how things will turn out really. There isn't a must have game on the Wii U that was built for the gamepad at all, so making it optional is the logical next big step for them.

The lower price would certainly help.

 

[Dang0]

They could 2DS Wii U by removing the GamePad, sell it for $250/$200, make the system interface not require the GamePad (obviously), patch all their games (or at least in reprints add a GamePad Required" label) to allow non-GamePad use, and call it Wii 2. Also remove Wii BC (those who want Wii BC and a GamePad in the box can still buy Wii U), and beef up the CPU (which is Broadway IIRC beefed up mainly for Wii BC) to help with better PS360 ports, but this is optional, so maybe not to allow Wii U to still play later games.

Here's a list of changes or rebranding with "GamePad-Required labels:

Super Mario 3D World = Absolutely not needed, minor adjustments are doable
Game & Wario = Will need to be required
Nintendoland = Required
New Super Mario Bros U = Already is optional
Sonic Lost World = 99% optional, I think only Rhythm Wisp still needs it, a minor adjustment
Lego City Undercover = Can be made optional, just have the scanner be on the TV and use the control stick to look around, easy breezy.
Pikmin 3 = Obviously not needed, just look back in the prequels.
Wonderful 101 = They should be able to adjust the bits where you'd need to look in the screen, maybe make it a Picture-In-Picture mode of sorts in those buildings.
ZombiU = Hard to tell, I would think they could make it optional, but the GamePad is a big selling point (all the good it's done for it...), they can just make it optional but obviously keep the GamePad controls in.

Can't think of much else out right now.

The real problem with removing the gamepad isn't the games, its the os. Miiverse or the browser would be ridiculous to use without the pad.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Man, I can't wait for the big wii u direct.

There's no evidence that there ever will be another January 2013-style Nintendo Direct again for Wii U. It might happen, but we have no idea.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Man, I can't wait for the big wii u direct.

E3 is miles away and they may not even do a direct for it again.

 

[Scum]

I'm not a big fan of chasing after 3rd parties the likes of current EA. They don't give a toss and will require too many hoops to jump through for anything to work out . Nintendo should put that collaborating/publishing business shenanigans they had going on that got them IPs like DQ & MH to good use and instead take up IPs that would sit tidily on their hardware. Nintendo themselves should also go back to making the IPs in genres they've been missing out in years.

 

[Apophis2036]

There's no evidence that there ever will be another January 2013-style Nintendo Direct again for Wii U. It might happen, but we have no idea.

I agree, last Jan's Panic mode Direct was to combat the fact that there was going to be no big hitting first party WiiU games until September. 2014 is very different in that DKC TP is out in Feb and MK8 prob in April. Nintendo will be saving everything for their return to E3 IMO where hopefully we see the new Zelda, Metroid and Miyamoto's new IP.

 

[Frolow]

Fantastic OP.

It will be interesting to see if they let the investor pressure get to them and start to develop for smartphones. Awhile back, Reggie said that Nintendo was interested in "experimenting" with the smartphone market in the form of marketing tools for their software. I'm going to assume he was alluding to the mobile version of Miiverse, but I really can't see how a phone version of their own social network is going to attract new customers. The possibility of companion apps is there as well, a la Knack's Quest, but I can't see them developing full-blown games for smartphones in the near future. Also, do we know of any potential successors to Iwata if he steps down/gets fired? I'm not entirely familiar with their board of directors so I wouldn't know.

Just release all back catalog games on the 3DS that it can handle

Release game boy, color, advance, NES, SNES, n64, GameCube, Wii games for sell on the eShop.

WHY IS THIS SERIOUSLY SO HARD?

The company deserves to fail. They can't even release Mario bros 3 in America on time.

And another thing. This company released NES Remix and Dr. Luigi and has the gall of charging $15.00 for them. It's absolutely madness that they would charge that much.

$5-7 max.

Instead of being hyperbolic and complaining about minute things, perhaps you could contribute to the actual discussion here.

 

[RoombaDance]

There's no evidence that there ever will be another January 2013-style Nintendo Direct again for Wii U. It might happen, but we have no idea.

I imagine they'll do something after the full Holiday results are in. The December direct seemed to be a bare minimum to provide an update on upcoming Spring titles.

 

[-PXG-]

You can't compare the 2DS to the Wii U. 3D isn't mandatory for any game to function on the 3DS. On the other hand, some games cannot be played, at all, without the Wii U gamepad. Still,ditching it and bundling a Pro controller with NSMBU, 3D World or WW HD would be a good idea. Sell it for 199 USD and call it a day. I guess they could say to hell with legacy support. Save the platform at the expense of making a few games incompatible.

Oh, and they should really release more VC games. Dirt cheap. And while they're at, make their own PS+ service. Give subscribers free full games and VC games every month. That would work wonders

Edit.

Call it Nintendo U. Drop the Wii name toend consumer confusion

 

[BowieZ]

The real problem with removing the gamepad isn't the games, its the os. Miiverse or the browser would be ridiculous to use without the pad.

Want to draw on Miiverse like everyone else? Beg your mom for a GamePad.

 

[RedSwirl]

Nintendo won't make a serious change until their next hardware cycle.

.

 

[jmizzal]

The entire OP reads like 'Nintendo on mobile is imminent' and that's something of a scary thought.

Very good analysis/data on the OP though.

Thats what Japan investors is pushing for but that just makes no sense, the 3DS isnt the thing that is struggling, if Nintendo went to putting games on mobile it would really hurt the 3DS.

The home console is struggling thats where they need to have change, and be more aggressive in the western market, they pay for all these Japanese exclusives but they cant even get the huge games like GTAV as a port, that needs to change.

 

[RoombaDance]

Oh, and they should really release more VC games. Dirt cheap. And while they're at, make their own PS+ service. Give subscribers free full games and VC games every month. That would work wonders

I wonder if having a paid online option would also help their third party relations. I'm not exactly sure how the financing of servers for online multiplayer works on Wii U, but a PS+ service would give Nintendo the ability to seriously invest in online infrastructure. Surely there's a reason Sony ditched the free online model.


Despite all the reasons ditching the gamepad might make sense, I really hope they don't. I've always like the device and think it has a lot of potential.

If that policy holds, Nintendo would be better served trying to build closer relationships with independent western developers (not tiny indies) similar to what they've done with Platinum. Try to see if they can publish games from Insomniac, Crytek, Epic, Gearbox, etc.

Next Level Games is a nice example. They also seem to have done alright developing a relationship with Traveler's Tales for Lego City Undercover. They'll probably have some trouble getting the big FPS oriented studios interested in doing an exclusive, but I think they can cultivate quite a few relationships with less famous studios. Also I'm sure Telltale would jump on a crossover.

 

[SirUltimos]

Ditching the Gamepad may be a good idea in theory, but in reality it would cause a huge mess of confusion for the consumer. Many games cannot be played without the Gamepad at all, and even those that can many expect the Gamepad to at least be present. It's likely that very few games that currently exist would be patched to remove this requirement, leaving a confusing, messy situation for the consumer.

I mean, you would end up buying a Wii U console only to have any games bearing the Wii U logo to not actually work.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

New year, new journalism-level threads. I am in awe.

Game Freak just doesn't want to make a mainline console Pokémon game. They firmly believe in a portable experience for the main series.

Given how home console-agnostic Japan is as well, can you blame them?

Iwata is a developer. If they fire him, I hope that they do not hire an MBA type. The OP is very worrying.

I mentioned this fear/concern in the other Journalism Thread concerning "why Wada sucks", if Iwata doesn't exit to another part of the company and it gets "took over", Nintendo is not in any way, shape, or form guarenteed to be improved financially from that, and it puts their culture at risk.

Can you imagine, the "GO 3RD PARTY" crowd getting their wish? Where's the proof? Is it not just jumping out of the frying pan into the fire?

 

[Scum]

Thats what Japan investors is pushing for but that just makes no sense, the 3DS isnt the thing that is struggling, if Nintendo went to putting games on mobile it would really hurt the 3DS.

The home console is struggling thats where they need to have change, and be more aggressive in the western market, they pay for all these Japanese exclusives but they cant even get the huge games like GTAV as a port, that needs to change.

Sod the port. Moneyhat the Bully sequel instead.

I wonder if having a paid online option would also help their third party relations. I'm not exactly sure how the financing of servers for online multiplayer works on Wii U, but a PS+ service would give Nintendo the ability to seriously invest in online infrastructure. Surely there's a reason Sony ditched the free online model.

Nintendo Spotify MiiVersify™.

 

[Cheerilee]

I'm aware of that, maybe it did not seem from my post.

But the change if it happens what would be aside steering towards mobile?

If the Q3 results are as expected, there will be an angry mob with pitchforks. The angry mob appears to like cell phones and Nintendo's first party games. Not much else is known about them.

When Iwata steps out to face the angry mob, they will probably yell "Hey Iwata! What are you going to do to fix this?" It's not our job to know what his answer is.

Somebody might randomly throw a pitchfork at Iwata before he can answer.

Iwata's answer might be that he will commit sudoku.

If the angry mob doesn't like Iwata's answer, somebody might throw a pitchfork. Maybe even after he commits sudoku.

In any case, Vegas says there's a 25% chance that Iwata doesn't walk away from this one (but there's a 75% chance he can somehow sweet-talk the mob).

Do we have a shortlist of notable people who could potentially replace Iwata? It'd be interesting to consider what their own visions for Nintendo would be. (provided they don't have the same vision as Iwata of course)

Ken Kutaragi is probably available.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

It's clear their model isn't working, and even more worrying the 3DS, while its doing fine, isn't doing as well as they anticipated either. It's still not hitting forecasts. With the Wiiu being an exceptional thud, they needed the 3DS at the minimum to pull them up to expectations overall.

They need an image revitalization. And I think looking at Valve should be how they pursue theirs.

IMO, it would probably be best to just focus on 3DS. I don't see any Wii U experiences that would be unimaginable on 3DS. Nintendo needs to fortify their handhelds much more than their console interests. Next handheld will carry both torches so it's imperative its predecessor doesn't lose steam like the Wii did before Wii U.

 

[RedSwirl]

And on the "build developers" thing, you still have to reconcile Iwata's reluctance to build and outright buy developers due to fear of talent leak (which is basically what happened to Retro).

If that policy holds, Nintendo would be better served trying to build closer relationships with independent western developers (not tiny indies) similar to what they've done with Platinum. Try to see if they can publish games from Insomniac, Crytek, Epic, Gearbox, etc.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

Im curious, are they going to do the January Direct before or after the meeting ?

 

[Funkyhamster]

Do that many of you really want Nintendo to leave the console business and go handheld only? Sure, they made plenty of mistakes with the Wii U, but I think we'll all be worse off if they're really forced to leave the console space. To begin with, it's the only product out there with quality local multiplayer. I just finished playing Nintendo Land with some friends, and we had an absolute blast. For me, Nintendo Land carries on the legacy of SSBM, Mario Tennis, Timesplitters, etc, in terms of sheer multiplayer fun. Some of my best video game memories are of sitting on a couch and playing with friends. The idea that this experience might be gone forever just because of the whims of investors is sad.

I also think that Nintendo home consoles offer something special for the single-player experience too, games with more grand visions than would be possible on a handheld. I don't have a 3DS, so maybe my opinion will change after getting one, and this point might be more nostalgic pleading than legitimate argument. It seems like a shame to throw such a rich legacy away because of one false start.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

Nintendo has already been clear and consistent that they won't talk about any change or discuss a fundamental shift in home console strategy until the end of the fiscal year - Iwata's revision on corporate strategy was specific to their plans to enter emerging markets and how they plan to increase share and he has quite frequently had Q&A discussions after Nintendo has said they won't - dating back to when the Wii was doing well - based on their need to explain existing market conditions.

Q3 is important and Nintendo has referenced that in the past - the numbers for the Wii U aren't going to look good and I think the 3DS is going to miss expectations as well (but far less) although they might meet expectations with a price drop in Japan and the release of the 2DS in that territory, but they aren't going to do anything drastic on the home console front as they have been explicit about seeing their release schedule into the middle of the year play out for the Wii U. There is also zero chance Nintendo is going to rush into smartphones following a poor Q3 since it will likely eat into their one reasonably profitable product rather than somehow make up ground in their home console business.

Moreover OP doesn't really understand Nintendo's priorities - while financially it is important to Nintendo to have a good presence in home consoles in the West - Nintendo always measures the success of their businesses based on their success in Japan first and foremost, because it's their cash-cow market where they have high margins and a competitive advantage to secure development talent.

That's the reason why the N64, despite being quite profitable in the US, was largely considered a failure because they failed to capture the broad audience and mainstream market in Japan.

My predictions: Wii U will miss projections, Nintendo is going to talk about how they plan to position the console in emerging markets like China (probably announce they have acquired the Chinese distribution subsidiary that markets the Q), will talk about how they plan to diversify the lineup, and generally discuss their view that home consoles are a declining market. 3DS will also miss projections but will be a money-maker.

My modeling suggests about a ~60-70% miss in operating profit for the FY, but the return to profitability will be enough to give Nintendo another 2 years leeway despite the big miss and let them play out the Wii U. In any case, none of the major Japanese institutions holding Nintendo stock are eagerly pushing for a strategy shift - they are more concerned about the preservation of long-term value and most are on-board with Nintendo not killing their pricing power by jumping into smartphones.

I also expect a stock buy-back of about 1 billion dollars, partially Yamauchi's shares to cover the inheritance tax, but also open it up more broadly in an effort to reduce the chance of a hostile take-over. My expectation is that we will see a bump in the stock price since the operating business is really undervalued with the current Wii U problems and speculation on a strategy shift. There are some conviction buyers in the market who are gambling on silly theories proposed by the Jefferies analyst (who has zero reputation in equity research for entertainment and games btw).

 

[Baron_Calamity]

As someone who said often they should remove the gamepad and sell the wiiu and the wii2, since owning one I have to agree this idea is crazy. The WiiU is the gamepad. Live or Die, you can not separate it from the system.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I'm guessing that you'll see a mobile virtual console long before you ever see Nintendo make an original mobile game.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

And on the "build developers" thing, you still have to reconcile Iwata's reluctance to build and outright buy developers due to fear of talent leak (which is basically what happened to Retro).

If that policy holds, Nintendo would be better served trying to build closer relationships with independent western developers (not tiny indies) similar to what they've done with Platinum. Try to see if they can publish games from Insomniac, Crytek, Epic, Gearbox, etc.

The problem with the rather nice list of (smartly) bought studios, 2nd parties, publishing deals, moneyhats, and cross-over specials is that...well, they ain't WORKING. Check the Bayonetta 2 threads; it's the opposite reaction, people are vehement against it in a sea of some the dumbest Diretiding ever wrought. The sales of the excellent 3D World are even more damning evidence that people buying Nintendo consoles is like a root canal for most. The question that the THIRD PARTY NAO crowd doesn't comprehend is the "why", and how is that to fix this woe? If it doesn't sell systems as exclusives, how is it to lift the company out of rapidly-becoming chronic financial shakes instead of replacing one dissapointment after another? They seen what happened to most Japanese publishers and the tone-deaf chasing of FOTM fads, right? Right?

It's why IMO a mobile-focused idea is also iffy, it's shareholder soothing rather than "this will work for us cuz this and that".

 

[ElectricKaibutsu]

Oh no. Nintendo is going to go the SquareEnix route, won't they?

 

[Karsticles]

I am happier with Nintendo now than I was all of last generation. I don't know what they could really change at this point.