Gabotron ES
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When do you think Microsoft will react to potentially losing next gen battle?
- Thread starter Tak3n
- Start date
HerrPalomar
Neo Member
I don‘t think they will abandon the xbox brand. They need to have a place in the living room, especially now that Apple seems to have gained interest in going into the TV/Media Box market. However I am not sure we will have a next xbox "console".
I'll predict that the investors who've been calling for the Xbox division to be spun off will grow much louder in the next year or two, and that MS will not make another console.
The R&D for the Bone is insane, the whole Xbox brand is still in the red. Couple that with flagging sales for the new system, and the whole venture will probably never produce a worthwhile profit for MS.
The R&D for the Bone is insane, the whole Xbox brand is still in the red. Couple that with flagging sales for the new system, and the whole venture will probably never produce a worthwhile profit for MS.
I'm looking forward to see how MS reacts. I know a lot of people were shouting for sales parity, but as a CONSUMER, you shouldn't want that. I also know a lot of people love to bring up PS2>PS3 to counteract how 1 company dominating is "bad" (while completely ignoring the PS1>PS2), but what exactly did they do to screw up the consumer? I'm not talking about silly quotes.
I was told that the PS3 was the cheapest blu-ray player on the market when it launched, it had built in wifi, and it was backwards compatible with the PS1/PS2. The problem was the price (although it had value) and releasing a year later. However, look at how they changed and improved their value and expanded their 1st party studios and continued to release exclusives over the years. That's good competition.
Let's see if MS has an answer to Amazon PSN, PS+ (Games for Gold still has a LONG way to go), price, and continued support for the next few years. I don't want to see a 360 style drop off where there's little to no exclusives for 4 years.
I was told that the PS3 was the cheapest blu-ray player on the market when it launched, it had built in wifi, and it was backwards compatible with the PS1/PS2. The problem was the price (although it had value) and releasing a year later. However, look at how they changed and improved their value and expanded their 1st party studios and continued to release exclusives over the years. That's good competition.
Let's see if MS has an answer to Amazon PSN, PS+ (Games for Gold still has a LONG way to go), price, and continued support for the next few years. I don't want to see a 360 style drop off where there's little to no exclusives for 4 years.
Spottiettiedop
Member
I think he is referring to Nintendo winning last Gen, not so much MS losing to Sony.
Shining Sunshine
Banned
Shareholders will force them to pull out within 2 years.
They have to be sick of Microsoft chasing leaders with uninnovative products.
They have to be sick of Microsoft chasing leaders with uninnovative products.
First of all, you've missed the entire point of my post, which isn't too surprising. Microsoft's successes or lack thereof within these ventures aren't the point of the post. I'm simply saying that Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony have secondary goals outside of mere profit that they're looking to achieve or improve on. I provided some examples, key word examples, of stuff that Microsoft may be looking to achieve with the Xbox One to improve themselves as a company. It could be right, it could be wrong. But that's not the point. I'm simply saying that terms like first, second and third palce are meaningless to the platform holders, and take a back seat to profits and secondary goals, ie. ways to get a foothold within new ventures or bridge the gaps and strengthen current ones.
For example, last generation Nintendo was in first place, but their gamplan left them horribly out of position to succeed within next generation. Sony was in second place, but they ate up all of their profits from the Playstation 1 and Playstation 2 eras, and dropped from a commanding lead in the previous two generations to being competitive with the previous generation's bottom feeders. Microsoft was in third place, but they went from bottom feeder to legitimate competitor. They went from unprofitable to profitable. They turned Xbox Live into an industry and monetary force. They've crapped away a lot of that, but the point still remains. It's not first, second and third place that matters, it's the details. And the details are different for each platform holder.
It's also important to note that taking the generation as a whole is misguided as well, because if you slice last generation into thirds, each chunk paints a different picture. The first third was Nintendo > Microsoft > Sony by a significant margin. The second third was Microsoft > Nintendo > Sony, by a considerably lesser margin. And the last third was Sony > Microsoft > Nintendo, and was the foundation for which the beginning of this current generation was built on.
So basically; first, second and third place are meaningless terms. Profit and secondary goals are what's important to platform holders. Generations aren't won at any one point in the generation, nor should they be viewed as one collective whole.
Sony will handily massacre MS in Japan and much of the EU. US and UK are the only markets XB1 has a chance and right now MS is being heavily outsold by Sony in those regions too. They might be able to equalize with Sony in those two markets with some strong price cuts and exclusives, but everywhere else the story's already been written. It's not a stretch to say that PS4 will pull away and be the dominant system this gen sales wise, it will not be a repeat of last gen when it comes to sales.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
They're not doing shit until after titanfall releases and they sell tons of overpriced Xbox ones. The lead right now might not matter once titanfall gives them a boost
It will only prolong the death of the kinect
It will only prolong the death of the kinect
They have already:
1. Flipped the switch on their always online and drm strategy.
2. Made the use of Kinect optional.
3. Fired the cash-cannons at Titanfall a second time to secure full exclusivity.
What I suspect will be next (w.a.g.'s):
1. Unbundle the kinect.
2. Drop the price to equal that of PS4.
3. Find more targets for the cash cannons.
1. Flipped the switch on their always online and drm strategy.
2. Made the use of Kinect optional.
3. Fired the cash-cannons at Titanfall a second time to secure full exclusivity.
What I suspect will be next (w.a.g.'s):
1. Unbundle the kinect.
2. Drop the price to equal that of PS4.
3. Find more targets for the cash cannons.
Dragonborn
Member
January numbers say otherwise and I've no doubt February will be the same
The better the PS4 sells, the harder it will get to throw money at games to make them exclusive. Titanfall being an unproven new IP launching so early in the cycle (before solid sales numbers for these boxes materialized) is what helped MS secure it.
I don't think a software battle would work out too well against Sony. I don't see any reason for devs to focus the XB1, rather than just doing both because of that already install base, and that Sony is starting to walk away this early. If anything, it would be easier for Sony to secure some new stuff with their install base trajectory, especially since it's a WW proponent, not just NA/EU. Only way MS can do this is by throwing large sums of money at the 3rd parties, and I don't think that's something even they can afford to do with investors breathing down their necks, and financial outlets combing through every move they make to report on it.
MS was caught not just with pants down, but Sony made them look like they wear their pants on their heads at MS. MS was not only banking on Sony not capable of new hardware this quickly, let alone hardware that was cheaper yet significantly more powerful, that the third party ports would look better on the One again like 360, and that devs would flock to them due to an easier development environment. This is not going to happen.
So what's left on the software front? A first party battle? That'll be possibly the biggest bloodshed for them. Sony's first party stables are larger, and at the very least same quality (easily debatable as superior quality). Once these studios ramp up with their multiple teams and such, they will be steamrolled outside of their Halo and Forza stuff.
Chances to win are dismal. MS has to react to just stay active, and that's concerning for them. It could end up PS2-era all over again here. And if it does, there is a chance they may not come back.
The only hailmary, saving grace to pull an upset here would be to hope ninty bows out and signs with MS. The chances of that are slim to none, and even the costs to get them on board would be significantly more than I think MS would eat. If anything, ninty would be more inclined to become a "software" business on their own, targeting known consoles, PC, and mobile. And if they chose a side, I think they're going to go with Sony, due to Sony most likely having the edge in their homeland.
It's a crazy time right now. We've had shaky times in the past, but that was usually just with one "major" console maker. This gen, there's two to worry about. Crazy stuff.
McHuj
Member
E3.
It's too soon now, although February won't be great either. March they may match what PS4 sells in NA thanks to TF (probably around ~350k) and that will pick up enough pace so quarterly results look ok (compared to the 360 for the time). Come April, things will recess back, but they'll wait it out the approximate month for E3.
The question will be how low can they go?
X1+Kinect for $399, possible
X1 without Kinect for $399, less likely as the comparison to PS4 will be rather direct then.
X1 without Kinect $349 possible
X1 without Kinect and without optical drive, $299. I'd like to see this myself.
I thought that I would own both consoles, but as time goes on, I'm finding less and less reasons to want an Xbone.
It's too soon now, although February won't be great either. March they may match what PS4 sells in NA thanks to TF (probably around ~350k) and that will pick up enough pace so quarterly results look ok (compared to the 360 for the time). Come April, things will recess back, but they'll wait it out the approximate month for E3.
The question will be how low can they go?
X1+Kinect for $399, possible
X1 without Kinect for $399, less likely as the comparison to PS4 will be rather direct then.
X1 without Kinect $349 possible
X1 without Kinect and without optical drive, $299. I'd like to see this myself.
I thought that I would own both consoles, but as time goes on, I'm finding less and less reasons to want an Xbone.
I have used it but not enough to make a judgment on it myself. Hence the admission of annecdotal evidence.
BigDaddyFatSack
Banned
Not surprising. People won't spend $100 more for an inferior spec-d console. They need to take out that useless Kinect and price it $50 cheaper than PS4.
funkystudent
Member
399 console will be here by E3 if not sooner.
If that doesnt fix things and it still gets outsold 2:1 my understanding is Xbox One was always designed to be forwards comparable and easily refreshable like a phone or tablet so they can probably have a newer more powerful machine out in 2 years and they can get off on a better foot that time around instead of the "fuck all our customers" approach they took with the X1
If that doesnt fix things and it still gets outsold 2:1 my understanding is Xbox One was always designed to be forwards comparable and easily refreshable like a phone or tablet so they can probably have a newer more powerful machine out in 2 years and they can get off on a better foot that time around instead of the "fuck all our customers" approach they took with the X1
The epitome of one and done
If they do that, MS is truly out of touch.
nillapuddin
Member
I remember when the PS2 was the worldwide dominant console
nobody had a problem with that
But just because Sony really fumbled the PS3, all the sudden we are surprised and upset when a Microsoft console had a stronger life cycle (360) ?
If anything this is more of a return to how it once was, Sony is a hardware company, Microsoft is a software company (albeit in the midst of a change of direction)
Sony has done this before, they were the top of the top of the top. Xbox is a great brand, and they have had an awesome run, but its not like there is only room for one console in this world.
nobody had a problem with that
But just because Sony really fumbled the PS3, all the sudden we are surprised and upset when a Microsoft console had a stronger life cycle (360) ?
If anything this is more of a return to how it once was, Sony is a hardware company, Microsoft is a software company (albeit in the midst of a change of direction)
Sony has done this before, they were the top of the top of the top. Xbox is a great brand, and they have had an awesome run, but its not like there is only room for one console in this world.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
After they see what Titanfall does for their numbers.
If your right sony will continue to dominate.
but as of right now they seem pretty much neck and neck in terms of AAA exclusives.
January and February were pretty much expected to be light on sales. It happens for every new console except the Wii. And yes the PS4 numbers while better, are still light due to supply constraint.
ValeYard
Member
A lot of these questions/theories on 'the race' MS vs Sony (Nintendo is of course struggling a bit in the living room with the Wii U) seem to be raised, knowing or unknowingly, under the ceteris paribus condition, i.e., keeping all other (here: market) conditions constant. That was one of the reasons why everyone thought the MS console would rock this gen in the first place: Because no one saw 8 GB GDDR5 RAM coming in the PS4; it appeared a given that Orbis would have to have 4 GB due to heat and costs, Durango would have 8 GB of slower DDR3 and, thus, have more horsepower, no discussions of 'bottlenecks' and 'workman-like graphics' were in anyone's wildest dreams (although that doesn't say much, since, allegedly, no one at MS even came up with the very obvious Xbone).
Now, with hindsight, we can see how Sony's ninja bet on 8 GB changed the game. So, my lesson from this is, that markets can be volatile and change quickly, and, right now, the console business feels ripe for a shake-up like when the Dreamcast (*shedding a single tear*) was kicked out by PS2. Therefore, the next few years could be very unpredictable indeed. However, both consoles seem to already have made great headway in getting a solid install base, but it is just plain simple economics that 100 dollars/euros more is going to hinder sales (of course, one can wonder whether the higher-ups like Mattrick had so much hubris to think it doesn't matter - I don't know, I have trouble getting in the head of people who earn so much by telling other people what to do).
What really is a bit of a problem, is the current messaging of MS combined with all these multiplats clearly showing that their hardware plus the entertainment functions that also sap on memory are going to hinder those 1080ps @60fps with decent effects - at least for now, I have no idea about hardware or software, no idea what an SDK can do to alleviate these issues or not. As Russ Fruhstick of polygon tweeted, I do think MS needs to 'get on' this if they don't want to just sit back and be second, which may even be okay for them. On the other hand, according to organization theory, in volatile markets, flexibility is an advantage, and I do feel that the recent updates (of stuff that really should have been in x1 at launch) demonstrate a certain flexibility on the software side of things, which was also evidenced by the 360's changing faces last gen, notwithstanding whether you felt they were for better or worse.
Summa summarum, this gen, the market conditions could change drastically. With PCs already obviously looking better than the consoles, I don't think graphics will be the deciding factor. These consoles have to make an argument for why they should be permanent residents in our living rooms, and I don't think either company have made the ultimate play in that long game yet. Titanfall sales bump or no, will definitely be a stat of some weight, games that Phil Spencer may be drumming up, exclusive services, whether Naughty Dog's graphics this gen are so good they literally melt your eyes. These are all things we can see coming. More interesting IMO, is what we don't see on the horizon yet.
Now, with hindsight, we can see how Sony's ninja bet on 8 GB changed the game. So, my lesson from this is, that markets can be volatile and change quickly, and, right now, the console business feels ripe for a shake-up like when the Dreamcast (*shedding a single tear*) was kicked out by PS2. Therefore, the next few years could be very unpredictable indeed. However, both consoles seem to already have made great headway in getting a solid install base, but it is just plain simple economics that 100 dollars/euros more is going to hinder sales (of course, one can wonder whether the higher-ups like Mattrick had so much hubris to think it doesn't matter - I don't know, I have trouble getting in the head of people who earn so much by telling other people what to do).
What really is a bit of a problem, is the current messaging of MS combined with all these multiplats clearly showing that their hardware plus the entertainment functions that also sap on memory are going to hinder those 1080ps @60fps with decent effects - at least for now, I have no idea about hardware or software, no idea what an SDK can do to alleviate these issues or not. As Russ Fruhstick of polygon tweeted, I do think MS needs to 'get on' this if they don't want to just sit back and be second, which may even be okay for them. On the other hand, according to organization theory, in volatile markets, flexibility is an advantage, and I do feel that the recent updates (of stuff that really should have been in x1 at launch) demonstrate a certain flexibility on the software side of things, which was also evidenced by the 360's changing faces last gen, notwithstanding whether you felt they were for better or worse.
Summa summarum, this gen, the market conditions could change drastically. With PCs already obviously looking better than the consoles, I don't think graphics will be the deciding factor. These consoles have to make an argument for why they should be permanent residents in our living rooms, and I don't think either company have made the ultimate play in that long game yet. Titanfall sales bump or no, will definitely be a stat of some weight, games that Phil Spencer may be drumming up, exclusive services, whether Naughty Dog's graphics this gen are so good they literally melt your eyes. These are all things we can see coming. More interesting IMO, is what we don't see on the horizon yet.
Prototype Viktor
Member
they'll react soon as they win the scratch offs they've been playing since 11-15-13
They are going to get a hot new car, some new clothes and a hot model. Then go back to school and show Sony who's really cool and everyone wants to be around
in seriousness..probably January 2015 if things don't pick up to at least being even with Son in the US
They are going to get a hot new car, some new clothes and a hot model. Then go back to school and show Sony who's really cool and everyone wants to be around
in seriousness..probably January 2015 if things don't pick up to at least being even with Son in the US
While sales numbers are somewhat interesting, the real story is not how many ps4's or xb1's are sold, but the rate at which console buyers subscribe to services like Music Unlimited, Xbox Music, PSN+ or Live. Both Sony and MS are making a pittance off console sales, and they're hoping to make it back by selling games, music, movies (and maybe giving consumers an incentive to buy an Xperia or Nokia phone the next time they renew their contracts.)
Even though Android makes up around 80% of global smartphone market share, iOS is still more profitable to develop for. Before we get a better sense of what the attach rates are for the next-gen consoles when it comes to games, and how much money people spend on music and videos within the MS or Sony ecosystems, it's too early to declare either console a failure. Hardware sales are an important facet of this... but not the only one, or even the most important one in my opinion.
meh.. sony never "reacted" last gen. I mean not like what's being implied here (freaking out, hacking and slashing prices, being generally crazy)
I think MS is reacting, at least internally. as someone else said, they've been reacting since the E3 press conference. which is the same way Sony reacted last gen. make small changes that work to everyone's benefit and eventually the public will pay you back.
I think MS is reacting, at least internally. as someone else said, they've been reacting since the E3 press conference. which is the same way Sony reacted last gen. make small changes that work to everyone's benefit and eventually the public will pay you back.
This has become a crutch I see flying around in many threads.
The more I think about it, the more I think a Kinectless SKU will be a disaster.
A PR disaster and a financial disaster, while losing the _only_ unique marketable feature of the entire console.
It doesn't fix the problems of it receiving the shitty end of all the multiplats throughout the generation, it doesn't solve the issue that the OS is still hugely Kinect-focused, it doesn't regain the millions and millions of dollars that went into designing Kinect 2.
One has to ask what constitutes a defeat in Microsoft's eyes?
IMO the only thing Microsoft cares about is the bottom line. As long as they are able to turn a profit with a fair growth rate using XBL and software sales they will not see this as a loss. On the other hand, slashing the cost and incurring a loss on every console sold might be a far harder sell for them.
IMO the only thing Microsoft cares about is the bottom line. As long as they are able to turn a profit with a fair growth rate using XBL and software sales they will not see this as a loss. On the other hand, slashing the cost and incurring a loss on every console sold might be a far harder sell for them.
impetuous_silly
Member
Neogaf: catapulting at the speed of light to conclusions.
LittleJohnny
Banned
Potentially losing what Nintendo won? I wouldn't break my neck chasing that. Slow and steady wins the race.
But even if they lose considerable market share overall by the time all is said and done, MS just needs to focus on making Xbox's experience unique and worth having. Unlike 360, they're not bleeding money for every unit sold, instead there's profit being made, so 70 million is not something to be completely proud of if you're not making good money off of it, better to sell 50 million at a profit imo, at a mere $20 bucks is 1 billion smackers from shipping alone. Then consider that we're comparing to PS4 and not 360. Xbox One is already at a much faster pace than 360 was, and will surpass 70 million, the only issue is that Sony will likely surpass 100 million, but that doesn't mean Xbox One will not be successful and make a ton of money for MS, thus keeping the Xbox business healthy.
But even if they lose considerable market share overall by the time all is said and done, MS just needs to focus on making Xbox's experience unique and worth having. Unlike 360, they're not bleeding money for every unit sold, instead there's profit being made, so 70 million is not something to be completely proud of if you're not making good money off of it, better to sell 50 million at a profit imo, at a mere $20 bucks is 1 billion smackers from shipping alone. Then consider that we're comparing to PS4 and not 360. Xbox One is already at a much faster pace than 360 was, and will surpass 70 million, the only issue is that Sony will likely surpass 100 million, but that doesn't mean Xbox One will not be successful and make a ton of money for MS, thus keeping the Xbox business healthy.
OOH the Latin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=N3qjMlvJ0UI#t=14
(I know its not shakspere but it does remind of this scene) lol
Personally I think the whole premise of "owning the living room" via the TV is totally dead. You don't need a large black box anymore to deliver content. People want to view their entertainment on all of their devices--mobile, tablets, and TV. The Xbox brand does not translate to these other devices so it's pointless.
thewhitehawk
Member
I think Microsoft has already reacted significantly since their console's unveiling, but if what you mean by "react" is a price drop, I think one will at earliest in the summer, or at least a new SKU without Kinect. As for a price drop, I think we won't see one this year, but it depends on Microsoft's goals under their new leadership. There are a lot of "but" and "if" on the air right now.
Finster
Member
Things are very different for MS, now. They have a new CEO who is "cloud focused" and not married to the success or failure of the Xbox like Balmer was, and there are a LOT of people on the MS board that have been calling for the sell-off of Xbox, Bing, and anything consumer-related to focus on enterprise systems and software... despite that strategy ending horribly for IBM, RIM, and others.
MS pulling out of the console market is not only possible, but pretty damn likely unless they manage to pull off a huge coup. And once the 360 and unhandicapped PC versions of Titanfall hit, I don't think THAT will be the xbone's savior, either. Not a whole lot else on the horizon for xbone.
Finster
Member
Actually, this is the correct answer.
I assume many that call for a kinect less SKU are the ones who have never tried it once and most likely would never buy an x1 no matter what it came with. It's a great piece of tech that I make use of all the time with the x1.
I could be wrong, but that's my assumption.
Yea not a chance at all are you crazy?
Exactly which is why I think they will simply drop the price of the current model while introducing a new $500 SKU with more memory (1 or 2 TB) -- with both of them having kinect.
That or at worst they'll introduce a device that's kinect without the camera so people can still use voice and A/V setup features. The system as a whole is literally designed around quick access features even though they aren't required.
GenericUser
Member
I think Titanfall is actually a game that can bost the sales the xbox one to outsell the ps4 for at least a limited amount of time. After that, they'll probably gonna drop kinect, selling the thing for - I don't know, 349? Making it way more attractive for the average guy. They ran and will continue to run a healthy business with their gaming console, using it as a trojan horse to support and boost their other services and offers. They won't retreat.
Eh? You are giving options to people ... it is not like they won't sell a One with a Kinect bundled in with it. The biggest barrier to people buying the system is price and they need price parity whilst still making money on the HW so Kinect has to be removed from a bundle option ... but if they worked on fixing the TV functionality for the rest of the world, then maybe that could be the unique selling point?
Can't you use a controller to control the current Dashboard?
NerdEyeBlind
Member
Hire Ken Levine?
The biggest barrier right now is price. As he said, they spent a lot of time/money on kinect and the unique features that the Xbox One has.
I can't see them quickly removing it anytime soon. I think they will just give the system a price drop with kinect still in the box.
The didnt try to push the windows space onto the console space though. Thats what confused me. They could have if they were really smart, released a decent fully specced Windows 9 type steam box. They could have had a locked down fully controllable pc, but they just decided to build another console with a stupid gimmick.
They only way I can see Microsoft doing well now is having the GTA or COD killer game exclusive to their console. Buy up Rockstar(fat chance) and have them publish exclusively on the one.
Agreed and I believe the last thing MS wants is a choice. If you force kinect then you continue to get unique kinect features in games. Where as with a choice like on the 360 we barely saw anything.
Kinect SKU that is cheaper. My guess stands as $400 with a top line game. Maybe Titanfall or a halo 2 HD bundle.
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