Support NeoGAF

[shinra-bansho]

It is like Wii Sports in that it's a very good game to show off the new controller and some of the potential future uses...

The new controller is supposed to be the selling point of the system, as the motion controller was to the Wii. NintendoLand is meant to be a showcase of this controller, as Wii Sports was for the Wiimote. Ergo I don't see how the intention of NintendoLand isn't the same, even if it's not having said effect.

And I don't think that's the fault of NintendoLand as a game in itself; the selling point simply isn't as appealing.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

True, that was for the 20GB. The 60GB was 20k yen more.

The 20 gig was sold for over a year in Japan before getting replaced by the 40 gig.

 

[Diablos54]

You don't have to play NintendoLand to predict that it's going to have worse legs than WiiSport.

Worse legs than Wii Sports doesn't = Flop though. The huge majority of games never have the legs Wii Sports had.

T
And I don't think that's the fault of NintendoLand as a game in itself; the selling point simply isn't as appealing.

True, plus it's a lot harder to communicate the Wii U's selling points than it was for the Wii.

 

[farnham]

What has predicting how a game will do and actually playing the game or not have to do with each other??

You don't have to play NintendoLand to predict that it's going to have worse legs than WiiSport.

I dont get this statement. Wii sports was a phenomenon and 80 million units is a tall order for any software. But i would not say upfront that nintendo land has no potential. Especially after playing it with friends.

 

[anon_mastermind]

What has predicting how a game will do and actually playing the game or not have to do with each other??

You don't have to play NintendoLand to predict that it's going to have worse legs than WiiSport.

Playing the game, you would have a better understanding how it can (and will) have legs in Japan, and could be a system seller in other territories. It's insanely fun in five-player multiplayer, more fun than Wii Sports even.

 

[Meesh]

Are those MHU numbers good for day 1!?

 

[donny2112]

I think the issue is that people want to know how the console race is going to play out next-next generation already. In other words, they want all the answers and the end story written before the first paragraph is complete. They want to predict the "life" of the Wii U based on first week sales and are using the extraordinary circumstances surrounding Vita's Japanese launch as reasoning. Vita's launch was unique in that the second week of availability coincided with the biggest sales week of the year in Japan and it still dropped 75% without sellouts. That was a bad sign, but it was also an extremely unusual setup. Wii U (and every other console) was not in that situation.

Vita was an unusual circumstance where we were able to be shocked and alarmed with reason by the second week numbers. Wii U is a usual circumstance, where it'll take a few weeks to have a decent idea either way to see how it'll play out. And then it still may change from there.

Trying to jump to the endgame this early on Wii U with a fairly nondescript launch is reaching a bit, I think.

 

[schuelma]

If the WiiU does perform similarly to the Vita, Will you be calling for Nintendo to "give it the old yeller treatment" and cheering with glee when it falls below 10k weekly sales like you did with the Vita?

If Wii U starts selling lower than 125k a month worldwide with absolutely zero significant titles coming out for it then absolutely.


I still do not think people understand how much of a disaster the Vita is.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

zomgbbqftw is a Wii U troll...

Who owns a Wii U...

 

[Hiltz]

Considering how no launch games jumped out as my thing, I'm surprised at the good sales. Why doesn't Nintendo launch their new systems with a Zelda game or something? Their launches have always seemed pretty random to me. I just said launch a lot.

Obviously, it really boils down to timing and which of Nintendo's teams are available to start working on new projects when their informed about new hardware. Zelda home console games take around 3-4years to make (depending on delays and if the whole team is available). The handheld titles seem to take around 2 years or so. Although, half of the Zelda team worked on Spirit Tracks while the other half was busy with Skyward Sword. Once Spirit Tracks was finished, the other half of the team joined in to complete Skyward Sword . Skyward Sword was still in the planning stages in November 2008. By June 2009, the game's story was nearly completed, but the rest of the game wasn't far along enough to be presented to the public.

We know that Aonuma is currently developing a new 3DS Zelda title which we may not get our first glimpse of until at least GDC at the end of March. Hopefully, the Zelda game will be ready to start working exclusively on Zelda Wii U by 2014 , while development may be outsourced again to developer Grezzo for potentially releasing a 3DS remake of Link to the Past/Majora's Mask like what happened with Ocarina of Time 3D.Retro Studios and Monolith Soft's Wii U projects may take around 2 1/2 -3 years to make even though they apparently received dev kits early like the rest of Nintendo's in-house developers. Retro Studios started working on Donkey Kong Country in April 2008 but the game didn't come out until November 2010.

 

[DCharlie]

I am not calling it a conscious agenda at all- I am saying you have made a lot of statements making it appear the a Via style flop is possible and I continue to think that is incredibly unlikely.

there's a chance that the WiiU's xmas might indeed be worse than the Vita but that should and wouldn't tell you -anything- about the two platforms long term.

Again - people are reading way too much into this - all i'm saying is i'm expecting low sales this xmas period based on what i think is a soft launch with little real effort put into in Japan by Nintendo. It may even have a mini slump, but once second phase software comes it'll do more than fine in Japan.

What the Vita sold and what the WiiU sells in this period has absolutely zero bearing on what either machines long term prospects are

 

[Diablos54]

Who owns a Wii U...

Doesn't matter, not that I'm saying you're a troll or anything. You can be a troll and still own the system IMO.

there's a chance that the WiiU's xmas might indeed be worse than the Vita but that should and wouldn't tell you -anything- about the two platforms long term.

Again - people are reading way too much into this - all i'm saying is i'm expecting low sales this xmas period based on what i think is a soft launch with little real effort put into in Japan by Nintendo. It may even have a mini slump, but once second phase software comes it'll do more than fine in Japan.

What the Vita sold and what the WiiU sells in this period has absolutely zero bearing on what either machines long term prospects are

TBH, I think Nintendo are concentrating on the 3DS more this xmas. I think the Wii U will ramp up gradually next year and have a great second half of the year, assuming they have some games out then, of course.

 

[JaseMath]

The reason it flopped is because it is not very good. It's just a collection of mini games only a few are worthy of being considered in the same frame as Wii Sports in terms of being a gamechanging experience that one needs a Wii U for.

Just because it isn't a runaway success like Wii Sports right out of the gate doesn't make it a flop. That said, if it wasn't included as a pack-in, there's no way I would have purchased it independent of the system. Some are better than others, but it is a glorified collection of minigames no matter how you slice it.

 

[pieatorium]

If Wii U starts selling lower than 125k a month worldwide with absolutely zero significant titles coming out for it then absolutely.


I still do not think people understand how much of a disaster the Vita is.

So we just have to wait on the sales in the next month or 2

 

[Majmun]

Not saying that NintendoLand is a flop. But it's hard to predict success with anecdotal evidence.

I'm sure there are a lot of people who are enjoying that Playstation AllStars game right now. Will that one have any legs??

Just because people are currently having fun with something, doesn't always mean any shit.

 

[Chris1964]

there's a chance that the WiiU's xmas might indeed be worse than the Vita but that should and wouldn't tell you -anything- about the two platforms long term.

This Christmas Wii U will sell worse than Vita? That chance must be 0.00000001% and of course Vita's second Christmas / Wii U first tell many things for its future.

edit: if you mean Wii U first Christmas will be worse than Vita first Christmas the chance is 0.001%

 

[donny2112]

So we just have to wait on the sales in the next month or 2

Possibly the biggest selling publisher in the world makes games exclusively for the system. Not a bad position to be in. Same reason why 3DS's very poor beginning always had brighter hopes than Vita's even poorer beginning.

 

[schuelma]

So we just have to wait on the sales in the next month or 2

Sales wise Wii Fit this Spring is more significant than anything released or announced for Vita. Hell Game & Watch will probably do better in Japan than anything released for Vita.

If you are trying to call me a blind fanboy in a round about way, do a better job.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Who owns a Wii U...

and clearly hasn't touched NL...hmm...

 

[farnham]

Possibly the biggest selling publisher in the world makes games exclusively for the system. Not a bad position to be in.

Possibly? Even if you count out wii sports nintendo released the top 1 to top 15 selling game this gen. Some of them selling more than double of what a halo or call of duty does

 

[test_account]

The 20 gig was sold for over a year in Japan before getting replaced by the 40 gig.

Was the 20GB offered for that long in Japan? But it could be, i just added to your point that the PS3 was also more expencive than 10k yen compared to the PS2 =)

The same could be same with the WiiU being only 1250 yen more expencive than the Wii by the way, but it also has another model that is 6500 yen more expencive.

 

[donny2112]

Possibly? Even if you count out wii sports nintendo released the top 1 to top 15 selling game this gen. Some of them selling more than double of what a halo or call of duty does

Call of Duty does 15-20m annually. Pre-2010, Nintendo was definitely #1. Last couple of years, I can't be sure without compiling stuff. Activision may have sold more across multiple systems (still excluding PC) to outstrip Nintendo's units, since there haven't been any 20+ million sellers from Nintendo in the last couple of years.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Just because it isn't a runaway success like Wii Sports right out of the gate doesn't make it a flop. That said, if it wasn't included as a pack-in, there's no way I would have purchased it independent of the system. Some are better than others, but it is a glorified collection of minigames no matter how you slice it.

Hey, I'm fat and got banned for supposedly approving insulting fat people (until our glorious master lifted the bans). Anything's possible these days.

As for Wii U and its fate, it all depends on whether they have significant software. Pikmin 3 and W101 are not going to sell a lot, let alone many consoles, they better have a shit ton of titles (1st party and ports/3rd party titles) ready for next year. As for Nintendoland it's really just a stupid - although at times interesting and creative - mini-game collection. It lacks the shocking novelty factor of Wii Sports, it's much closer to... I don't know... a very small Wii Party.

But this is what I am saying, Nintendo Land is a collection of mini-games to show off the new controller, just like Wii Sports or Wii Play (though that had the added attraction of coming with a Wiimote). Wii Sports had sports waggle minigames (good ones, mind), this has touch controller or two screen gaming minigames.

The concept behind the pack in is the same for Nintendo, show what the controller can do, the problem for Nintendo is that waggle was much more novel to casuals than touch screen gaming which is no longer very novel after the iPad.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

Agree and disagree. You make a lot of valid points and I do think it is premature to call bombs.

However, I do think Nintendo absolutely expected higher week 1 sales.

Probably. But (talking strictly Japan sales here), the recent Nintendo casual game series have completely become shadows of their previous selfs with Brain Training and Nintendogs. Combining that with the fact that most launches are filled with hardcore buyers and the state of console gaming in general in Japan, I don't think 66,000 copies sold on a 300,000 userbase within the first week is suddenly "bomba" material (especially for a game like NintendoLand) even if it did sell 100,000k less then Wii Sports in the same timeframe.

 

[Diddy Kong]

\As for Wii U and its fate, it all depends on whether they have significant software. Pikmin 3 and W101 are not going to sell a lot, let alone many consoles, they better have a shit ton of titles (1st party and ports/3rd party titles) ready for next year. As for Nintendoland it's really just a stupid - although at times interesting and creative - mini-game collection. It lacks the shocking novelty factor of Wii Sports, it's much closer to... I don't know... a very small Wii Party.

I don't think Pikmin will be too hot, but I think W101 has potential to be a huge hit if it catches with the kids.

 

[farnham]

Call of Duty does 15-20m annually. Pre-2010, Nintendo was definitely #1. Last couple of years, I can't be sure without compiling stuff. Activision may have sold more across multiple systems (still excluding PC) to outstrip Nintendo's units, since there haven't been any 20+ million sellers from Nintendo in the last couple of years.

The thing with activision is that their franchises dont tend to be sustainable. Tonyhawk was big for couple of years.. Then it crashed.. Same with guitar hero... Somehow call of duty did not meet that fate yet (however you could argue that modernwarfare/ blackops is a different franchise)

 

[pieatorium]

Call of Duty does 15-20m annually. Pre-2010, Nintendo was definitely #1. Last couple of years, I can't be sure without compiling stuff. Activision may have sold more across multiple systems (still excluding PC) to outstrip Nintendo's units, since there haven't been any 20+ million sellers from Nintendo in the last couple of years.

Actbliz did release some huge PC exclusives this year in Diablo and WoW expansion

 

[zomgbbqftw]

and clearly hasn't touched NL...hmm...

Oh really:

 

[farnham]

Actbliz did release some huge PC exclusives this year in Diablo and WoW expansion

diablo 3 or torchlight 2 on gamepad would be so awesome... T.T

 

[walking fiend]

What has predicting how a game will do and actually playing the game or not have to do with each other??

You don't have to play NintendoLand to predict that it's going to have worse legs than WiiSport.

Firstly, I don't know how you want to measure bundled games legs; but regardless, I would say playing it actually is important in the prediction.

NL apparently is a title that is enjoyed the most in local multiplayers and whether other people who play it beside the owner enjoy it or not, will definitely have a strong impact on the NL/Wii U sales; and of course people who have played the game themselves have a much better understanding of whether people enjoy it or not

 

[Sandfox]

I don't think Pikmin will be too hot, but I think W101 has potential to be a huge hit if it catches with the kids.

I think Pikmin 3 will end up doing a lot better than the other games in the series tbqh. Its not going to be putting up crazy numbers but I can see at doing at least 2x-3x what the first game did.

 

[Thoraxes]

Oh really:

May as well activity log if we're doing pictures now. It'll save another 4 posts of accusations.

 

[Chris1964]

Don't most consoles sell a lot at launch??

I don't know. Do they?

 

[farnham]

I think Pikmin 3 will end up doing a lot better than the other games in the series tbqh. Its not going to be putting up crazy numbers but I can see at doing at least 2x-3x what the first game did.

pikmin was never such a niche title in japan. it did respectable numbers on gc. especially the logo song of the commercials seemed to be a big hit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SL2ePovKMtg

 

[F#A#Oo]

Oh really:

the pictures proves you played NL? I have a a ton of steam games...wanna know how many I actually played?

 

[urfe]

That seems like a decent start.

Shame Nintendo can't help push ZombiU. Would be cool to be Ubisoft do better overall in Japan.

 

[JaseMath]

But this is what I am saying, Nintendo Land is a collection of mini-games to show off the new controller, just like Wii Sports or Wii Play (though that had the added attraction of coming with a Wiimote). Wii Sports had sports waggle minigames (good ones, mind), this has touch controller or two screen gaming minigames.

The concept behind the pack in is the same for Nintendo, show what the controller can do, the problem for Nintendo is that waggle was much more novel to casuals than touch screen gaming which is no longer very novel after the iPad.

Part of the appeal of the Wii was the argument for the Wii Remote, simplifying the controller for the casual audience. I don't know that Wii Sports was popular outside of the fact that everyone knew they could play it. I'd argue that the Wii U controller is scaring away casual gamers rather than attracting them being it's the same controller they were always intimidated by...now with a touchscreen! That might be why Nintendo Land isn't selling gangbusters right now.

 

[Sandfox]

pikmin was never such a niche title in japan. it did respectable numbers on gc. especially the logo song of the commercials seemed to be a big hit

I was talking worldwide and at the end of its lifetime but I could see it doing better in Japan as well. The original did 500k over its lifetime in Japan and I think it can top that now.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

the pictures proves you played NL? I have a a ton of steam games...wanna know how many I actually played?

Well I only have two games, and I have only done the first stage of NSMBU...

Look mate, you can shovel shit as much as you like and try and smear me as a hater, but the fact it I own a Wii U and Nintendo Land and played it quite a bit yesterday with a few friends that came over. The best game, we found, was the Mario chase game, I really hope Nintendo turn that into a full game I would buy the shit out of it at full price.

 

[walking fiend]

Oh really:

May as well activity log if we're doing pictures now. It'll save another 4 posts of accusations.

the pictures proves you played NL? I have a a ton of steam games...wanna know how many I actually played?

*grabs popcorn*

 

[DCharlie]

This Christmas Wii U will sell worse than Vita? That chance must be 0.00000001% and of course Vita's second Christmas / Wii U first tell many things for its future.

edit: if you mean Wii U first Christmas will be worse than Vita first Christmas the chance is 0.001%

We shall see - if the 400k for entire period is true, then the chances of WiiU > Vita is 0%

Again - as mentioned - it doesnt even mean anything in the long term.

 

[Majmun]

F#A#Oo
Banned

That was fast. lol

He can go play NL now, for real

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Was the 20GB offered for that long in Japan? But it could be, i just added to your point that the PS3 was also more expencive than 10k yen compared to the PS2 =)

The same could be same with the WiiU being only 1250 yen more expencive than the Wii by the way, but it also has another model that is 6500 yen more expencive.

I was responding to someone saying the PS3 did poorly because of the price but was actually not that expensive compared to the PS2 that launched around $400 there.

Are there people saying the WiiU isn't selling because of price?

 

[Chris1964]

Attach ratio

3DS: 0,95 (mc)
PSV: 0,92 (mc excluding digital)
WIU: 1,16 (eb excluding digital / top 6 sw / MH bundle)

 

[Chris1964]

We shall see - if the 400k for entire period is true, then the chances of WiiU > Vita is 0%.

Umm yes, no additional shipment for Japan this year is not happening.

 

[randomkid]

Probably. But (talking strictly Japan sales here), the recent Nintendo casual game series have completely become shadows of their previous selfs with Brain Training and Nintendogs. Combining that with the fact that most launches are filled with hardcore buyers and the state of console gaming in general in Japan, I don't think 66,000 copies sold on a 300,000 userbase within the first week is suddenly "bomba" material (especially for a game like NintendoLand) even if it did sell 100,000k less then Wii Sports in the same timeframe.

I'm really curious to see how Nintendo Land does in the long term. Brain Training and Nintendogs really did have absolutely astonishing collapses like you said. I went to check out sales for the last "casual" multiplayer console game I could think of and I really can't believe the result.

Wii Play: Motion: 138,863

Like seriously, what the fuck? Exactly one year earlier Wii Party sold 2.2 million. What happened there?

 

[StreetsAhead]

Attach rate

3DS: 0,95 (mc)
PSV: 0,92 (mc excluding digital)
WIU: 1,16 (eb excluding digital / top 6 sw / MH bundle)

Not bad - most of the people I saw purchasing one got Monster Hunter, NSMBU, or both (as shown by the numbers we have, lol), but with only three new games being released here before the end of the year (COD: Dubbed Edition, Simple Series and Sports Connection) I can see some of the release titles doing well when people go back for more once they finish with Mairo.

 

[urfe]

Umm yes, no additional shipment for Japan this year is not happening.

Stores I went to quoted the 15th of December.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Attach rate

3DS: 0,95 (mc)
PSV: 0,92 (mc excluding digital)
WIU: 1,16 (eb excluding digital / top 6 sw / MH bundle)

Any idea on how many MH sales were bundled and how many were the regular sku?

 

[Delusibeta]

On the one hand, decent numbers by any stretch of the imagination. On the other hand, worse than Vita, and you know how that ended up. Ultimately, it's the weeks and months ahead that count. But for now, no need to use panic measures for the Japanese market.