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[schuelma]

However, I predict a steep drop and low weekly sales (fewer than 20K per week on average) into 2013. The lineup is dry going into the new year. I think the PS3 might even lead the Wii every now and then in the weekly sales, depending on what comes out in a particular week.

Agree. Unless NSMB just catches fire and/or Wii Fit repeats 2007, there is really no software coming out the first half to keep momentum.

Of course, Sony is doing a Nintendo a favor by giving them a year to sort things out and find its legs.

 

[test_account]

The Wii U has two 3rd party titles that will likely outsell any vita game. We'll see on vita, so far I see little hope unless Sony has a Vita slim that is 50 dollars cheaper and has exclusive FF, MGS and GT launching with it up its sleeve.

We'll have to wait and see what exclusive 3rd party support is like for the Wii U but the first party games already give it an advantage over the Vita to where the Wii U doesn't have to rely on getting the amount of support the Vita would need to turn things around for it.

(I'll answer both quotes in one since i have basically the same reply to both quotes).

I guess you mean that those games will push the hardware installbase and this will result in better 3rd party support? This didnt happen on the Wii, but it is possible that it could happen to the WiiU. I guess only time will tell.

I know it's a port and shouldn't make a big difference, I was saying that just for the sake of precision.

Thanks for mentioning it because i had forgotten about that game

 

[jman2050]

Nintendo games selling on a Nintendo platform aren't a surprise; and Monster Hunter selling well in Japan isn't really a surprise.

Yes, let's penalize a system's software sales because the games that are selling are the games that usually sell. Surely the fact that these historically desirable games are, in fact, selling is a disastrous sign for the future.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

From a look at those numbers, I think the launch went well. I find Monster Hunter 3 HD in particular to be fairly impressive, given that it traces its origins back to a game from 2009 that was subsequently modified and re-released 3 additional times since then. Nintendo Land will have legs, while ZombiU did better than I expected.

I didn't expect much of anything out of any other title considering that they're just ports from other systems. Nintendo platforms in Japan have always been weak performers in the multiplatform department, and these forgettable titles don't change that.

However, I predict a steep drop and low weekly sales (fewer than 20K per week on average) into 2013. The lineup is dry going into the new year. I think the PS3 might even lead the Wii every now and then in the weekly sales, depending on what comes out in a particular week.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 outselling Wii U sometimes in 2013. It also greatly depends on what titles Nintendo has lined up. Do we know when game & wario, dragon quest X, pikmin 3 and Wii fit u hit? I'm sure pikmin will be q2 but the lineup may not be so horrible depending on the actual release list.

 

[schuelma]

Are Monster Hunter-like software sales for any title on any platform in Japan likely to be an exception or a norm?

I don't know- I just think its a bad argument. Of course Monster Hunter sells- that is why I presume Nintendo worked hard to get it at launch. You don't discredit it's success as a game to help build an audience on a new platform because it's success was predictable.

Along the same lines, how on Earth did you expect the other 3rd party titles to sell?

 

[meppi]

Oh really:

At least tell me that's a wine cooler underneath the Wii U!!!
Too painful to watch otherwise.

 

[Sandfox]

(I'll answer both quotes in one since i have basically the same reply to both quotes).

I guess you mean that those games will push the hardware installbase and this will result in better 3rd party support. This didnt happen on the Wii, but it is possible that it could happen to the WiiU. I guess only time will tell.

That's not what I meant, I'm just saying that the Wii U will more than likely be less reliant on third party support to "survive" than the Vita is. The only third party support I'm expecting on the Wii U is the devs that supported the Wii. They'll probably move their series over to the Wii U at some point and hopefully they find something new that people like.

 

[DCharlie]

I dislike this argument. Software from established franchises sell poorly all the time. To focus on the 3rd version of Orochi and dismiss Monster Hunter selling better than any 3rd party launch game on a console last gen strikes me as being pretty selective.

I don't know- I just think its a bad argument. Of course Monster Hunter sells- that is why I presume Nintendo worked hard to get it at launch. You don't discredit it's success as a game to help build an audience on a new platform because it's success was predictable.

Along the same lines, how on Earth did you expect the other 3rd party titles to sell?

you really need to factor in WHAT MH3U is - it's an upport of a 3DS game, which adds better graphics (Japanese say #shrug) and online (Japanese MHers post PS2 say #shrug) - it's a great bonus at launch but it's -not- a new entry in the line : it's an extremely nice bonus so the game did about what people expected.

Agree

so ... if you agree with that and the 300k figure is right - then there's a pretty good chance that the WiiU will, infact, undersell the Vita in the same launch time frame?

p.s. let me add that i think all the figures are fake, regardless of previous good record of source

 

[Despera]

Not bad if true. Nintendo needs to give consumers some hope for the future tho. No one knows anything about the system past Spring of next year. Unacceptable.

Maybe they should ask Square to make them a teaser for a non-existent game a la PS3's Versus XIII. I'm sure that moved some units.

 

[jman2050]

The Vita's failure was not just a function of bad third party support, it was a function of bad third party support AND no successful first-party franchises to speak of. The latter is not an issue Nintendo has to worry about anytime soon.

 

[Branduil]

At least tell me that's a wine cooler underneath the Wii U!!!
Too painful to watch otherwise.

Oh man I remember that thread.

 

[Sandfox]

you really need to factor in WHAT MH3U is - it's an upport of a 3DS game, which adds better graphics (Japanese say #shrug) and online (Japanese MHers post PS2 say #shrug) - it's a great bonus at launch but it's -not- a new entry in the line : it's an extremely nice bonus so the game did about what people expected.

To me it honestly felt like this MH game was made specifically to be brought over to the west in response to the fans asking for it.

 

[test_account]

That's not what I meant, I'm just saying that the Wii U will more than likely be less reliant on third party support to "survive" than the Vita is. The only third party support I'm expecting on the Wii U is the devs that supported the Wii. They'll probably move their series over to the Wii U at some point and hopefully they find something new that people like.

Oh ok, like that, i understand. The initial arguement was about which platforms the 3rd parties would support, so i thought you ment that Nintendo's 1st party gave it an advantage over the Vita of getting 3rd party support

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't know- I just think its a bad argument. Of course Monster Hunter sells- that is why I presume Nintendo worked hard to get it at launch. You don't discredit it's success as a game to help build an audience on a new platform because it's success was predictable.

Along the same lines, how on Earth did you expect the other 3rd party titles to sell?

I'm not discrediting it's success - I just wouldn't use it as a barometer of third party sales - since the answer to my somewhat rhetorical question was that MonHun is an exception not a norm.

And as I said above, I don't disagree these other titles may not act as a barometer either due to extenuating circumstances for these titles. But those still seem like poor sales. E.g. ports/rehashes sold better at Vita launch.

I guess the argument can be made that there was no title at Vita launch for consumers to consolidate around like MonHun though.

 

[Laguna]

Considering declining global sales of current generation sales Japan will not still be developing PS3/360 titles 3 years from now as that'd be unsustainable unless they also start porting to vita and Wii U.

Besides WiiU the only other "relevent" next gen system for the Japanese market won´t be out before (4Q)2013 maybe 2014, that´s at least a whole year from now. Also there is no indication that PS4 will be getting any major system seller within it´s first year, because Nintendo has DQ and MH on lock, besides GT no one seems to care about Sonys own offerings and SQEX won´t be crazy enough to release a mainline FF this early, who knows Versus could even be pushed back to 2014. Also this time they won´t have a new movie medium to push their system. In other words adoption rate likely will be considerably worse then its competitor. So at the very least I expect Japanese publisher to support PS3 a lot more than PS4 in the next 3 years.

 

[Diablos54]

Besides WiiU the only other "relevent" next gen system for the Japanese market won´t be out before (4Q)2013 maybe 2014, that´s at least a whole year from now. Also there is no indication that PS4 will be getting any major system seller within it´s first year, because Nintendo has DQ and MH on lock, besides GT no one seems to care about Sonys own offerings and SQEX won´t be crazy enough to release a mainline FF this early, who knows Versus could even be pushed back to 2014. Also this time they won´t have a new movie medium to push their system. In other words adoption rate likely will be considerably worse then its competitor. So at the very least I expect Japanese publisher to support PS3 a lot more than PS4 in the next 3 years.

I expect a PSP-Vita situation when it comes to software for the PS4, but not as bad of course.

 

[Jonnyram]

Are these numbers legit? Funny that noone in Japan has confirmed them, even though some people in Japan undoubtedly have numbers by now.

Regardless of how it does at launch, it hasn't got a very exciting software lineup for the first half of 2013, so sales are going to plummet like 3DS and Vita did. The question is when they will have recovery software ready. They've put so much effort into getting the 3DS back on track, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo's software development for Wii U is a year behind schedule.

 

[Dalthien]

I guess the argument can be made that there was no title at Vita launch for consumers to consolidate around like MonHun though.

That's exactly the argument to make. Just look at the tie ratios I posted. The tie ratio was between 0.9-1.2 for all 6 of the last system launches. People buy ~1 game to go with their system at launch. If there is a big hitter or two, then that game(s) will get the majority of sales. If there's just a bunch of mediocre crap available at launch, then the sales get spread out across all the crap. It just comes down to how you allocate that ~1 game per system at launch.

 

[Laguna]

I expect a PSP-Vita situation when it comes to software for the PS4, but not as bad of course.

Yes, I think that is very likely. Especially after the disaster the PSV has been to them they´ll be even more cautious and probably play the wait and see game first and play it safe with upports of Musou and Gundam games which by now only have very limited appeal.

 

[schuelma]

Yes, I think that is very likely. Especially after the disaster the PSV has been to them they´ll be even more cautious and probably play the wait and see game first and play it safe with upports of Musou and Gundam games which by now only have very limited appeal.

1st or 3rd party?

I expect 3rd party support to be decent at worst.

 

[H_Prestige]

Well we can safely cross off vita and 720. Which leaves off with:

3DS
Wii U
PS4

For reference, since we're basing future support off of the first 2 days of sales. PS3's highest selling title at launch was ridge racer with 30,300 sales.

I like how you ignore the ps3. Wii U isn't beating it

 

[AniHawk]

I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo's software development for Wii U is a year behind schedule.

what else have they been doing? they rushed sm 3d land, nsmb2, and mario kart 7, but that's basically the extent of their effort on the machine. everything else has been ported or outsourced. or is intelligent systems. this, coupled with the wii development being dead since late 2009, leads me to believe they've been more focused on the wii u since then than anything else.

 

[DCharlie]

Yes, I think that is very likely. Especially after the disaster the PSV has been to them they´ll be even more cautious and probably play the wait and see game first and play it safe with upports of Musou and Gundam games which by now only have very limited appeal.

so they'd look at the Vita rather than say the success they had on the PS3? That makes sense.

I'm pretty sure a big chunk of third parties are -already- on board for PS4 and X720.

 

[schuelma]

so they'd look at the Vita rather than say the success they had on the PS3? That makes sense.

I'm pretty sure a big chunk of third parties are -already- on board for PS4 and X720.

I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. You have to remember that it took a lot of years and development to create a semi healthy atmosphere for 3rd parties to succeed

 

[jman2050]

I like how you ignore the ps3. Wii U isn't beating it

The PS3 is on its way out.

 

[Jonnyram]

what else have they been doing? they rushed sm 3d land, nsmb2, and mario kart 7, but that's basically the extent of their effort on the machine. everything else has been ported or outsourced. or is intelligent systems. this, coupled with the wii development being dead since late 2009, leads me to believe they've been more focused on the wii u since then than anything else.

Animal Crossing, Oni Training, Luigi's Mansion, Tomodachi Collection, Band Bros. Also you think they aren't working on a new Zelda, Pokemon, Kirby, etc? Handheld is their primary business and right now they are still focused on 3DS, I believe.

 

[H_Prestige]

The PS3 is on its way out.

If the ps3 is on its way out, then what does that make the wii u, which has far, far fewer new releases on the horizon?

 

[Laguna]

so they'd look at the Vita rather than say the success they had on the PS3? That makes sense.

No, they´ll look at this.

1.PS3 had a very slow start
2.PSP far more successful than PS3.
3.PSPs successor, the PSV a complete flop.
4. Even after ~1 year PSV they still have more success on PSP

So it´s only logical to play the wait and see game . Sony just isn´t a sure bet in Japan anymore. This doesn´t mean that there won´t be PS4 projects, it means that they´ll likely support PS3 far more at first and that there´ll be a similar slow transition like what we are seeing with PSP and PSV right now, with PS4 mainly getting some PS3 ports, Gundam and Musou games.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

The tie ratio was between 0.9-1.2 for all 6 of the last system launches. People buy ~1 game to go with their system at launch.

What blows my mind is that every person who buys 2-3 games at launch is cancelled out by a couple of people who bought nothing in order to maintain that average. I guess speculating dickheads amounts for a sizeable portion of that, but still, it's weird.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

LOL, that's a nice dream to have.

It's really not that impressive, Wii U is going to basically take 2nd by default.

 

[Pharros]

what else have they been doing? they rushed sm 3d land, nsmb2, and mario kart 7, but that's basically the extent of their effort on the machine. everything else has been ported or outsourced. or is intelligent systems. this, coupled with the wii development being dead since late 2009, leads me to believe they've been more focused on the wii u since then than anything else.

I agree with this. I think it can be argued they're holding off on any announcements in the hopes to compete with the impending Orbis/Durango announcements. I remember reading a list of Nintendo's studios and what they've been working on, it was pretty barren which leads one to believe they're all working on some form of Wii U games.

 

[leroidys]

Seems like good numbers to me, no? Especially considering the (IMO) lackluster launch lineup.

I agree with this. I think it can be argued they're holding off on any announcements in the hopes to compete with the impending Orbis/Durango announcements. I remember reading a list of Nintendo's studios and what they've been working on, it was pretty barren which leads one to believe they're all working on some form of Wii U games.

This is an interesting point, and could have been brought up in my thread asking When Will Nintendo announce their Wii U Lineup? thread, but it got instaclosed. Thanks mods!

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

I agree with this. I think it can be argued they're holding off on any announcements in the hopes to compete with the impending Orbis/Durango announcements. I remember reading a list of Nintendo's studios and what they've been working on, it was pretty barren which leads one to believe they're all working on some form of Wii U games.

Wait for Spaceworld!

 

[Rolf NB]

Agree. Unless NSMB just catches fire and/or Wii Fit repeats 2007, there is really no software coming out the first half to keep momentum.

Of course, Sony is doing a Nintendo a favor by giving them a year to sort things out and find its legs.

It's baffling to me that Sony didn't drop PS3 prices coincident with the Super Slim launch.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No, they´ll look at this.

1.PS3 had a very slow start
2.PSP far more successful than PS3.
3.PSPs successor, the PSV a complete flop.
4. Even after ~1 year PSV they still have more success on PSP

So it´s only logical to play the wait and see game . Sony just isn´t a sure bet in Japan anymore. This doesn´t mean that there won´t be PS4 projects, it means that they´ll likely support PS3 far more at first and that there´ll be a similar slow transition like what we are seeing with PSP and PSV right now, with PS4 mainly getting some PS3 ports, Gundam and Musou games.

Presumably you're referring to Japanese publishers' titles aimed solely or primarily at the Japanese market.

I would imagine publishers with a more global view would already be engaged in or planning PS4/720 development.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Presumably you're referring to Japanese publishers' titles aimed solely or primarily at the Japanese market.

I would imagine publishers with a more global view would already be engaged in or planning PS4/720 development.

How well have Japanese publishers and developers done on PS360 in the west recently? How well do you think they'll do with anither generational increase in resource demands for successor systems?

 

[Pharros]

Seems like good numbers to me, no? Especially considering the (IMO) lackluster launch lineup.

This is an interesting point, and could have been brought up in my thread asking When Will Nintendo announce their Wii U Lineup? thread, but it got instaclosed. Thanks mods!

It makes a lot of sense in my opinion. It would be dumb for Nintendo to just have an early blowout and essentially have their balloon deflated by E3 by the other big 2 making their blockbuster announcements. Now, Nintendo needs to have SOME hype to keep themselves relevant until then, but I believe they'll hold some big announcements for June for sure.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

It's baffling to me that Sony didn't drop PS3 prices coincident with the Super Slim launch.

They're in rough financial shape. I get the impression there was a "no price cuts" order from the top in order to maximize margins, which would also explain why the Vita didn't get a price cut even though it's probably going to die because of that.

 

[Kagari]

The PS3 is on its way out.

PS3 will likely continue to get decent releases out of Japan for a couple more years, much like the PS2 did.

 

[shinra-bansho]

How well have Japanese publishers and developers done on PS360 in the west recently? How well do you think they'll do with anither generational increase in resource demands for successor systems?

RE6 was a record for Capcom iirc [EDIT: I recall incorrectly, it also was a bit of a flop], FFXIII-2 bombed? I can't recall what other titles released and how they did off the top of my head. The generation being long in the tooth presumably doesn't help.

On the assumption that they've done relatively poorly, how does that help the notion that publishers should continue with PS360 development indefinitely. Unless the argument being made is that Japanese publishers should stop trying with the Western market.

I also don't get how the Wii U seems to always be immune to the resources/budgets argument.

I thought RE6 did about half of RE5 in its first month in the west? A huge disappointment iirc.

I only remember a story about the shipment number, there could be tons sitting on shelves I suppose.

 

[jman2050]

RE6 was a record for Capcom iirc, FFXIII-2 bombed? I can't recall what other titles released and how they did off the top of my head. The generation being long in the tooth presumably doesn't help.

On the assumption that they've done relatively poorly, how does that help the notion that publishers should continue with PS360 development indefinitely.

I also don't get how the Wii U seems to always be immune to the resources/budgets argument.

I thought RE6 did about half of RE5 in its first month in the west? A huge disappointment iirc.

 

[Kagari]

I thought RE6 did about half of RE5 in its first month in the west? A huge disappointment iirc.

RE6 did worse than RE5 in the west, but better than it in Japan.

 

[AniHawk]

Animal Crossing, Oni Training, Luigi's Mansion, Tomodachi Collection, Band Bros. Also you think they aren't working on a new Zelda, Pokemon, Kirby, etc? Handheld is their primary business and right now they are still focused on 3DS, I believe.

i'll give you animal crossing, but those guys also just finished up nintendo land. oni training is what, spd 2, who mainly did brain age and tetris before managing other departments? luigi's mansion is one of the outsourced games i was referring to. i wasn't aware there was another tomodachi collection on the way, but that's probably spd1, who's probably also making the wii u-bound game & wario. band bros. is probably spd5, and they've only done handheld games in the past.

game freak is obviously going to be making a new pokemon at some point, but they don't make console games, much like spd5. it's not like ead where they are often split off to do other things.

zelda 3ds is probably where we'll see the franchise next, and i guess we might see kirby on the 3ds soon, but that's all speculation. nintendo might take the easy way out and just do remakes for the 3ds when it comes to zelda to focus on the console side more.

we haven't heard from half of ead tokyo, retro, and monolithsoft in a while, and we know they're all doing wii u stuff. then there's the nsmb guys who will have two wii u games out before the end of next year. we know sakurai's been roped into another smash bros. game. we know ead 5 is getting a wii fit game out early next year. next up for eguchi's guys is probably a wii u animal crossing, and hideki konno's ead1 is probably doing mario kart.

edit: i see now you were responding to the 'what else have they been doing' part of my post. it seems that aside from a few efforts, the internal teams making games tend to have always had a handheld focus. i won't be surprised if we get yet another mario vs. dk game from the shambling corpse of nst sometime in the next year.

 

[StreetsAhead]

i'll give you animal crossing, but those guys also just finished up nintendo land. oni training is what, spd 2, who mainly did brain age and tetris before managing other departments? luigi's mansion is one of the outsourced games i was referring to. i wasn't aware there was another tomodachi collection on the way, but that's probably spd1, who's probably also making the wii u-bound game & wario. band bros. is probably spd5, and they've only done handheld games in the past.

game freak is obviously going to be making a new pokemon at some point, but they don't make console games, much like spd5. it's not like ead where they are often split off to do other things.

zelda 3ds is probably where we'll see the franchise next, and i guess we might see kirby on the 3ds soon, but that's all speculation. nintendo might take the easy way out and just do remakes for the 3ds when it comes to zelda to focus on the console side more.

we haven't heard from half of ead tokyo, retro, and monolithsoft in a while, and we know they're all doing wii u stuff. then there's the nsmb guys who will have two wii u games out before the end of next year. we know sakurai's been roped into another smash bros. game. we know ead 5 is getting a wii fit game out early next year. next up for eguchi's guys is probably a wii u animal crossing, and hideki konno's ead1 is probably doing mario kart.

edit: i see now you were responding to the 'what else have they been doing' part of my post. it seems that aside from a few efforts, the internal teams making games tend to have always had a handheld focus. i won't be surprised if we get yet another mario vs. dk game from the shambling corpse of nst sometime in the next year.

Intelligent Systems is developing Game & Wario.

 

[BlackJace]

Man, they have Intelligent Systems on everything.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I like how you ignore the ps3. Wii U isn't beating it

We were speaking in the future tense, as in where in the future Japanese developers will flock to. I don't anticipate that the majority of Japanese developers will greenlight more PS360 titles once their 2013/2014 titles are released unless they are also going to Wii U or Vita or something bad happens with ps4/720.

 

[AniHawk]

Intelligent Systems is developing Game & Wario.

ah okay. guess that frees up spd1 for something. maybe rhythm heaven for 3ds or wii u.

 

[donny2112]

Nintendo games selling on a Nintendo platform aren't a surprise; and Monster Hunter selling well in Japan isn't really a surprise.

Okay, so we got

1) Nintendo games don't count

and

2) Monster Hunter doesn't count

Can't wait to see what the next third-party success story will be, so we can find out what else shouldn't count!

Let's be reasonable here - there's a 40% chance of it happening? Seem about fair ? IF the 300k figure is right and that's about as good as it gets for the week then the WiiU is -already- trailing for a start.

Wii U has more weeks in December than Vita did. It's already a foregone conclusion that Wii U 1st December will be > Vita 1st December. 100,000,000-1 would be pretty generous odds in that case. Again, as you said, it doesn't matter, though.

I dislike this argument. Software from established franchises sell poorly all the time. To focus on the 3rd version of Orochi and dismiss Monster Hunter selling better than any 3rd party launch game on a console last gen strikes me as being pretty selective.

Maybe you dislike it, because you've seen it before, say, 5-6 years ago now?

p.s. let me add that i think all the figures are fake, regardless of previous good record of source

At least that would explain this reasoning of yours. :lol

 

[StreetsAhead]

Man, they have Intelligent Systems on everything.

Crashmo
Pushmo
Paper Mario
Fire Emblem
Game & Wario.

Highest output of any Nintendo stuido in the last year or so, iirc.

 

[Lyude77]

ah okay. guess that frees up spd1 for something. maybe rhythm heaven for 3ds or wii u.

Didn't the guy behind Rhythm Heaven Fever suggest there won't be another Rhythm Heaven for a while, or maybe not another one at all? I'm thinking it might be some kind of new IP... maybe.