Support NeoGAF

[Trilobit]

A confidential 2022 report commissioned by the Semiconductor Industry Association and reviewed by NYT concluded that losing access to Taiwan's chip supply would trigger the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, with U.S. GDP falling 11 percent. Another report by Bloomberg from January 2024 estimated a conflict would cost the global economy more than $10 trillion.

Apple has since taken steps, however. Last summer, Cook visited the Oval Office and committed to investing $100 billion in the United States, with the money being used to support TSMC and other chip manufacturers. Apple has reportedly also begun holding all-day engineering meetings with Intel to evaluate its manufacturing capabilities.

I feel like this would be almost an apocalypse level event for our modern world, making the AI RAM issues seem cute in comparison. Who knows what the ramifications would be. Hopefully there are enough safeguards in place to hinder a complete meltdown if China attacks Taiwan.

Tim Cook Warned by CIA That China Could Move on Taiwan by 2027

Apple CEO Tim Cook was among a handful of top tech executives who attended a classified CIA briefing warning that China could attack Taiwan by 2027, according to a sweeping investigative report by The New York Times ($). The previously unreported briefing was apparently held in a secure room in...

www.macrumors.com

Please lock thread if topic is too political. I just find it interesting since it dramatically affects our tech hobbies and also our everyday lives.

 

[Tomorrow]

"Who knows what the ramifications would be"

 

[Baemono]

"Semiconductors saying the chip shortage would be the worst thing ever in the world" sounds like "Microsoft wars about the AI bubble to pop anytime soon"

 

[AJUMP23]

I think that China would not want to spark WW3. I think this would do it. The US treaty with Taiwan has been pretty solid. It is worth the national interest of the US to work with TSMC to move all their factories to mainland US.

 

[jason10mm]

Chinas strategy to erode the US from within seems to be working well, so why not wait?

But Pooh wants this done in his lifetime, so the clock is ticking.

 

[Pagusas]

Lines up with why Tim Cook and apple have cozied up so much with an administration that is at odd's to their own personal brand.
TSMC has made strides also to diversify and get their US arm building faster (though still not fast enough).

Though China taking TSMC won't do much without the key resources only the US can provide in high end chip making, worth a watch:

 

[nush]

I doubt it will happen, it's a lot of sabre rattling and posturing from China for years now. When the war in Ukraine broke out there were a lot of comments on how that would spark the invasion on Taiwan at the time. China went pretty quiet on Taiwan as soon as they saw Russia getting it's ass handed to them.

China likes to bark a lot but rolls over as soon as they meet any resistance. They also know that there is a treaty between a lot of south East Asian countries that they have pissed off over the years and they will be kerb stomped the second they try to actually invade Taiwan and not talk about it or run military invasion war games.

 

[SlimySnake]

lol why would china stop supplying those chips to the rest of the world? they already supply everything else. their entire economy is built on exports.

 

[Tomorrow]

lol why would china stop supplying those chips to the rest of the world? they already supply everything else. their entire economy is built on exports.

the whole thing is just americans upset they will lose power and control.

 

[Bojji]

lol why would china stop supplying those chips to the rest of the world? they already supply everything else. their entire economy is built on exports.

I think Taiwan plan is to destroy those plants in the case of Chinese invasion.

Humanity after 2027:

 

[jason10mm]

lol why would china stop supplying those chips to the rest of the world? they already supply everything else. their entire economy is built on exports.

I certainly agree that if China could just peacefully and amicably absorb Taiwan then the chip money train wouldn't change.....much, though the higher end stuff would go to China first for the AI wars. But that seems very unlikely, at least in the next 1-2 decades until the older generation is gone and younger ones with less resentment towards mainland China may be more susceptible to 'merging' with China.

Personally I think we will see a Korean reunification before we see a peaceful settlement with Taiwan, at least until those fab plants exist elsewhere.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

I think that China would not want to spark WW3. I think this would do it. The US treaty with Taiwan has been pretty solid. It is worth the national interest of the US to work with TSMC to move all their factories to mainland US.

The same as China "allowed" US take one of their puppets, Venezuela, USA would do with Taiwan. Don't be naive thinking that this is not being discussed behind the curtains. Of course, they won't tell us how they plan to divide the world in their own benefit.

Russia is the wild one here doing their own thing, but certainly the invasion of Ukraine thwarted whatever move China is planning for Taiwan after seeing the strong reaction from Europe, pushed by Poland and ex-soviet countries.

 

[jason10mm]

The same as China "allowed" US take one of their puppets, Venezuela, USA would do with Taiwan. Don't be naive thinking that this is not being discussed behind the curtains. Of course, they won't tell us how they plan to divide the world in their own benefit.

China has almost ZERO ability to stop us though, what could they do, send their carrier battle group over? The only thing they could do is soft power/trade stuff, beyond the war they are already conducting against us. That whole Maduro thing happened so fast, no way they could respond with those tactics in time.

Whereas we have a ring of bases around Taiwan and routinely deploy significant naval assets to that theater, so even a lightning strike against Taiwanese leadership wouldn't enable a take-over of the island. They have depth in leadership to be able to respond.

Russia is the wild one here doing their own thing, but certainly the invasion of Ukraine thwarted whatever move China is planning for Taiwan after seeing the strong reaction from Europe, pushed by Poland and ex-soviet countries.

I agree, the US not getting too entangled in Ukraine paused China. We'll see how Iran goes.

 

[Dirk Benedict]

This is the main reason China wants Taiwan and I've been saying it in this forum, for a few years now. They want all the machines the data and patents.
They don't give a shit about the land, they say it's reunification, but I know better. That's just a good looking blanket they put on top of their true ambitions.

 

[poppabk]

I think that China would not want to spark WW3. I think this would do it. The US treaty with Taiwan has been pretty solid. It is worth the national interest of the US to work with TSMC to move all their factories to mainland US.

Where are you gonna get the workers?

 

[IDKFA]

I feel like this would be almost an apocalypse level event for our modern world, making the AI RAM issues seem cute in comparison. Who knows what the ramifications would be. Hopefully there are enough safeguards in place to hinder a complete meltdown if China attacks Taiwan.

Tim Cook Warned by CIA That China Could Move on Taiwan by 2027

Apple CEO Tim Cook was among a handful of top tech executives who attended a classified CIA briefing warning that China could attack Taiwan by 2027, according to a sweeping investigative report by The New York Times ($). The previously unreported briefing was apparently held in a secure room in...

www.macrumors.com

Please lock thread if topic is too political. I just find it interesting since it dramatically affects our tech hobbies and also our everyday lives.

It's hard for me to believe this.

China might present as communist, but they have a capitalist economy that is heavily reliant on global trade. An invasion of Taiwan would destroy their economy overnight.

They would have far more to lose than gain with this invasion.

I'd love to see the CIA intel to understand what would push the CCP towards all out war.

 

[Audiophile]

Even if China tried to take Taiwan, aren't they reliant on ASML to build the latest lithography machines; a Dutch company which manufactures in the Netherlands, the US & Germany..?

The short to mid term strategy would be denial with maintenance of older nodes at best.

 

[Hyperborean]

Taiwan = Arrakis

 

[Lord Panda]

It's hard for me to believe this.

China might present as communist, but they have a capitalist economy that is heavily reliant on global trade. An invasion of Taiwan would destroy their economy overnight.

They would have far more to lose than gain with this invasion.

I'd love to see the CIA intel to understand what would push the CCP towards all out war.

Yep, I've said pretty much the same thing in a few of the other loosely related threads. China would likely go for its own version of shock and awe and try to take Taiwan as quickly as possible, but there's no way a buildup on that scale would go unnoticed. The global economy would get smashed, but China would probably wear the worst of it.

I've said this before too: if China just focused on itself, leaned into soft diplomacy, and concentrated on getting as wealthy and influential as possible, there's a decent chance sentiment in Taiwan could gradually shift over time and make peaceful reunification more plausible. The seemingly rush to force reunification feels much more about Xi's ego and his obsession with cementing a legacy than any real strategic necessity.

 

[Mistake]

China is too ingrained in the global market. They would never do something so obvious and disruptive. It's much easier to keep buying people off, push the line, or subvert industries like they have been doing. Also, they've been gaining a lot of ground with locals using their own brands, so this seems overblown

 

[Nocty]

I think the scarier side of things is the inevitable war coming if China pulls too far ahead developing superintelligence.

have any of you read this? https://situational-awareness.ai/

it's eye opening and terrifying to be honest.

 

[Draugoth]

I think the scarier side of things is the inevitable war coming if China pulls too far ahead developing superintelligence.

have any of you read this? https://situational-awareness.ai/

it's eye opening and terrifying to be honest.

Doomerism. There's no evidence that we are anywhere close to developing real artificial intelligence. We are just gives that false impression because current transformer models are trained on a shitload of data and a really good at mimicking humans.

 

[Wildebeest]

I think the scarier side of things is the inevitable war coming if China pulls too far ahead developing superintelligence.

have any of you read this? https://situational-awareness.ai/

it's eye opening and terrifying to be honest.

War is more likely to be caused by a global economic depression caused the markets crashing due to AI not delivering. AI haters will then likely both be living in the world they thought they wanted with the AI hype proved wrong and the world they didn't want where nobody has a job and companies are desperately trying to turn things around by replacing everything they can with AI. It is hard to say if or when super intelligence will make a difference. Stuff like hacking a computer, guiding a weapon system, or making a bland pop song that people like is not yet the real science fiction stuff like fusion power or biological immortality.