archnemesis
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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Halo 2 - launched on Nov. 9, 2004. 21 days in NPD period. 3.3m
Halo 3 - launched on Sep. 25, 2007. 12 days in NPD period. 3.3m
Halo: Reach - launched on Sep. 14, 2010. 19 days in NPD period. 3.3m
Halo 4 - launched on Nov. 6, 2012. 20 days in NPD period. 3.2m
Halo 5 - launch on Oct. 27, 2015. 5 days in NPD period. ?
Will be interesting to see how front-loaded this is. It has the fewest tracking days of the Halo series in an NPD period. Maybe Microsoft pushed the launch up to October to try to win Oct, Nov, and Dec, this time? With a week less tracking than any other Halo mainline game, how much will that affect launch month sales?
Halo 3 - launched on Sep. 25, 2007. 12 days in NPD period. 3.3m
Halo: Reach - launched on Sep. 14, 2010. 19 days in NPD period. 3.3m
Halo 4 - launched on Nov. 6, 2012. 20 days in NPD period. 3.2m
Halo 5 - launch on Oct. 27, 2015. 5 days in NPD period. ?
Will be interesting to see how front-loaded this is. It has the fewest tracking days of the Halo series in an NPD period. Maybe Microsoft pushed the launch up to October to try to win Oct, Nov, and Dec, this time? With a week less tracking than any other Halo mainline game, how much will that affect launch month sales?
Halo 5 should take October no problem, as the only competition seen so far is MGS V in it's 2nd month of tracking. However I doubt it will win November. Both Black Ops III & Battlefront release in November. I can say the same will likely be the result in December as well, with Call of Duty overshadowing the other two unless the Star Wars craze reaches a head with the movie coming out.
Goodacre0081
Member
wasn't ODST supposed to be an add-on? maybe the fans were a bit upset that Bungie/MS decided to spread that game a bit too thin at the time
I dont actually know. I've never really follow Halo tbh haha.
I was just trying to make a joke.
Was referring to hardware. We saw Microsoft's desperation to win Nov/Dec last year. Therefore, it's reasonable to think they'll be similarly desperate this year as things aren't looking any better for them and it worked so well last year. We also know that they're exactingly aware of the NPD tracking periods based on the timing of the price cut last year to precisely match the Nov+Dec NPD periods. Then it follows that a Halo 5 launch in the last week of the October tracking period is an intentional move to push more hardware sales into October. Wonder if they'll be doing a price cut for the Oct-Dec tracking period this time around to also increase sales, then.
Is that important win in NPD? Microsoft want good sales and outsell PS4, but launch a game earlier only for win one extra month on NPD doesn't make sense to me.
slavesnyder
Member
Their PR department would think differently.
John Bender
Banned
It's nice PR! That's all.
They are just trying to keep the Xbox brand relevant/alive.
It's not about money, are whatever else. See last years holiday period.
My mistake. It's more likely for the sake of not having to compete with Black Ops III, which releases just 10 days later. I think that having Halo release in October to win NPD is more of a side benefit than anything. If Microsoft cuts the price by then, they'll win October's NPD regardless.
Agreed, it's mostly a PR thing, if owners of a specific console see their choice losing every month, they might consider defecting to the other side because that's where everyone else is at, and they're on the other side for a reason. It's not like PS4's success was undeserved.
How much people track who won in NPD? I suppose people read news occasionally about console sales, but Microsoft doesn't need to win october to produce PR material bragging about holiday sales.
slavesnyder
Member
Yes they do. And it's not bragging. It is the fight for mindshare.
They invested so much time and money and achieved that the xbox 360 became the strongest console in the US, not only respected, but loved by gamers and suddenly Microsoft had a product that was officially cool like Apple. Wow. Windows wasn't cool, Zune wasn't and Bing... well...
Then they created the XboxOne and they were sure to wipe the floor with the PS4. What could go wrong. They had all prepared for staying on top and even marching on. We all expected this, even here on GAF.
Then the shit hit the fan and suddenly they lose. They get bashed for all the nice surprises and features they put into the box. They get laughed about, there are memes and gifs about them. They lose not only in the rest of the world but on their own home turf that they had in a gridlock for the complete last gen. Every month. Even on Titanfall month.
No one at Microsoft could have been happy about that. Business partners could not have been happy about that. Stakeholders neither. There are even rumours the division gets sold. They fire Mattrick and rebrand old Spencer as new Phil. The gap widens but at least the tweets get better.
They need a win and go price-limbo from thanksgiving on. They win two months. For PR, for the good feeling, for momentum. Everyone is happy. New year comes. They raise the price again. Sales die. Same problems. Bloodborne.
This will be a long year and if Microsoft does not take care they will get branded as the console for 2nd class citizens, the console that my buddies do not have. They need good news, for BtoC, BtoB and internal motivation.
Winning the NPD is a huge part of it. Halo is the best bullet they have.
And then came the PS4 price cut.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
PS4 for $299 this Fall.
I know I'm in the minority here, but that's exactly what I'm predicting.
October 27th, Paris Game Expo
"Starting today, The PS4 everywhere is now $299 (single SKU) including The Last of Us!"
And Coming November, two bundles will be offered (possibly 1Tb):
$349 PS4 + TLOU + Infamous + Bloodborne
$349 PS4 + Knack + Tearaway Unfolded + LBP3
Black Friday: PS4 + Camera + TLOU + Bloodborne for $299 doorbuster
That's my "gut feeling"
Ps4 Batman bundle
That's what I'm thinking. There's precedent with the way Sony handled the PS2 during it's first price cut. I feel that a $50 cut wouldn't be very effective at all in spurring sales because it would just be seen as maintaining price parity with the competition. Not to mention that drop would be completely nullified if the Xbox gets another price drop during the holidays, which most of GAF predicts is going to happen. A $100 cut would generate a lot more buzz, and would cut the ankles of a lot of Microsoft's biggest holiday releases and/or price drops. Holiday shoppers are more often than not looking for the best deal, so I feel that maintaining price parity should be important going forward, and Sony is most likely thinking two steps ahead on that issue.
Drop it $100 or don't bother, that's my stance.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
Don't forget Halo 4's last LTD was 8 million and we haven't heard jack since.
Swass
Member
I'm right there with you.. $50 does nothing and Microsoft can just match, $100 puts the PS4 into the $200 mainstream bracket and really puts Microsoft in a tough position.
Exactly my predictions too from the start. So you're not alone there.
slavesnyder
Member
There is always the possibility that they do not bother. Compared to MS, the US is not as important to Sony as the have the rest of the world for them and a huge lead globally.
Maybe they are satisfied to earn the extra money.
My personal opinion would be to lower the price by 100, make a statement, sell enormous amounts of consoles and cash in on subscriptions and software.
As always, it will be interesting.
I agree with most of your arguments, just don't think that a game launch date is defined based on NPD track period. I believe the strategy is maximize sales and have a great holiday. The rest is consequence.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
The game had a beta last year in December, how rushed so you think it will be almost a year later?
You'd be surprised the people who will take an win, or even an increase seriously when related to NPD, and will say things like "PS4 is doomed" on a WW scale even though NPD is one country. That happened during November and December actually
PSX conference in September, Sony cuts PS4 price for 100$
Nope.
PSX is in December.
That's really not going to do much if the 360/PS3 ratio of other batman games were in favor or not far apart.
Randolph Freelander
Member
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Microsoft Chad
Banned
What tough position? Just drop $50 and boom, both are $299.
This is NA, where the PS4 has yet to move away from the Xbox One for the Kill, and dropping the price when they can also drop the price, with their big games (halo etc.) coming out probably won't do much of anything.
Then you will have the same retailer cuts and/or bundles as last time.
Exactly this. Most people tend to forget that Sony can still make a handsome profit off PS Plus subscriptions even if they dropped the price to $299.
The Batman bundle is gonna sell like crazy not sure what 360/PS3 ratio has to do with it.
On GAF certainly. I'm talking about overall, people that play games but not live on internet seeing news.
I agree with both of you here. I meant "don't bother" figuratively. They could keep the price at $399 for the holidays, but I don't think they will, because they'd have to risk Xbox getting another price drop and losing out on precious market-share when the holidays arrive. Stable profits with a $399 tag are nice, but the potential money that can be gained with a lower entry point and increased software purchases & PS+ subscriptions could be a huge boon. They should drop the price absolutely, but by $100 or not at all, because a $50 drop will amount to very little in the long run.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
Uh, Yes it will sell, but it's not going to bump the PS4 to 359k In june and somwhow do another 100k+ gap over the XO.
No no, see the people who are CASUALS, will look at MS's statements and take it as truth not the people on gaf.
Swass
Member
Well the problem is Microsoft has devalued their brand, so if they match Sony on price they will actually look less attractive as the PS4 will look like the better value even though priced the same. Or does Microsoft drop to $250 and maintain parity but lose boatloads of cash on every sale? That's what I meant by a tough position.
Yep, like I said many times before, a price drop to $349 would be too insignificant.
slavesnyder
Member
Okay, here is why GAF is important for PR:
One of the most beloved creatures of PR-people are multipliers. People who are, in our case, either passionate about games or even work in games industry. In the best care it's both. Because we talk about gaming with others, exactly those people that do not live on internet seeing news. We have opinions and love to share them. We gather infos and talk to people who sometimes even do not understand what in the world could be interesting about that. We are willful superspreaders for news and opinions.
GAF is a concentration of multipliers of all kinds.
No wonder all sides send in the shills when important things happen. Me, I can't wait for all those agendas that will start to bloom like daffodils when E3 comes around.
Also, lazy internet journalists follow GAF to fill their pages with stuff the swarm has picked up somewhere. I read game-related things on the internet and think by myself: "You heard it first on NeoGaf."
slavesnyder
Member
PS4 even on the same level as the XboxOne in the US is the kill already.
Please understand.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
I'm pretty sure that Xbox doesn't have to drop below $299 and this is an assumption that really holds no weight at all. Sony would be quite a bit ahead by now if it was true.
$299 Xbox one with the big TP games, with Big FP games against a PS4 at $299 with TP games. In NA.
No? The Xbox one is selling faster than all consoles outside the Wii (just like the PS4) and it's sub 1 million away from being at the top spot, the closest is ever been. I don't see where the Kill is.
The kill is that ps3 had around half the sales of the 360 in the US. Before this gen started everyone expected MSto gain more market share. MS losing Half its market share in its biggest market is a big blow. If sony drop to $299, S will have to drop even farther. We have seen ps4 dominant the one with price parity. It has even been winning when xbox one has been $50 cheaper.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
2 issues here: Market share is reset it doesn't lose, and it took the 360 awahile to get the market share it has, also the Wii had double the sales of the 360, the PS4 is now in place of the Wii and is less than 1 million away from the Xbox. There is no kill.
Another, If Sony was that desirable they would not be close, Xbox is not going to drop below $299 it had no need to,it will have big games plus TP and will also have a game after the holidays this time.
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Super_Cobra
Member
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freefornow
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Prototype Viktor
Member
Neither I'm starting to use other thread numbers for my placeholder for ps4/xbone
The 2 million is for the UK and the xbone number is from Japan
The Mad Draklor
Member
I think the PS4 install base will hit between 33-35 million.