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[Men_in_Boxes]

We did this with Helldivers 2 and the results were interesting. 65% of NeoGAF (including me) got Helldivers 2 wrong. (https://www.neogaf.com/threads/helldivers-ii-whats-the-market-potential-for-this-game.1658957/) Let's try it with Concord...



Concord is a 5v5 Hero Shooter developed by Firewalk Studios, releasing on August 23rd, 2024. Here's some similar games in the genre that may help you gage your predictions a little better.

GAME...............................HEALTHIEST MONTH..........................HONEYMOON PERIOD.........................LAST 6 MONTHS AVG

Team Fortress 2............215k (Dec 2023)....................................6 months....................................................130k
DotA 2..............................640k (June 2016)..................................N/A................................................................450k
Counter Strike 2............1+ m (May 2023).................................2 months.....................................................900k
Overwatch 2....................24k (May 2024)....................................2 months....................................................20k
Rocket League................70k (Oct 2020)......................................2 months...................................................36k
The Finals.........................120k (Dec 2023)....................................6 months...................................................40k (game seems to be settling around 10k)

*Healthiest month: Month with the highest average players.
*Honeymoon period: How long after launch did the player trend reach equilibrium.
*Last 6 months avg: Estimation of average player count over last 6 months.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Did Overwatch 2 bomb that much?

 

[IDKFA]

Judging by the initial reaction and unless something drastically changes, this game is likely to bomb.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Did Overwatch 2 bomb that much?

I'm not sure what percentage of Overwatch 2 is played on Steam. It seems to be a top 20 mainstay on XBox and PlayStation.

 

[Kikorin]

This have bomb written all over it, I can't even understand how they decided to produce it.

 

[adamsapple]

After 4 months? Probably the first option.

 

[FoxMcChief]

It’s going to bomb hard, especially if it isn’t Free to Play.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I went with 20k - 30k, though I see it hovering just above 20k.

 

[BennyBlanco]

I'm not sure what percentage of Overwatch 2 is played on Steam. It seems to be a top 20 mainstay on XBox and PlayStation.

I think most PC players are playing OW2 on battlenet like diablo 4.

Add Concord to the list of GaaS that everyone already knows will flop before it sees the light of day. Suicide Squad, Foamstars, Skull and Bones, etc.

I am actually shocked that Sony took a look at this junk and decided to outright buy the studio. It looks miserable.

 

[winjer]

Probably dead on arrival.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Going to depend highly on the beta

HD2 peaked at 400k concurrent users, I could see this achieving 50k

I could also see it bombing but not redfall levels if the gameplay beta doesn’t impress

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Going to depend highly on the beta

HD2 peaked at 400k concurrent users, I could see this achieving 50k

I could also see it bombing but not redfall levels if the gameplay beta doesn’t impress

I'm not super confident in my prediction either (will know more after the beta) but I just can't see PlayStation buying a studio because they can't differentiate between Concord and Redfall, Foamstars, Skull and Bones etc...

 

[feynoob]

None, dead on arrival.
Its a mediocre game that will die after 1 year.

The only way it can succeed is to have its own formula of success. The reason HD2 is success, is because its acts as a game and treats you that way.

 

[feynoob]

Keep in mind that there alot of these type of games on PC. So PC success is going to be bad.

 

[FoxMcChief]

I went with 20k - 30k, though I see it hovering just above 20k.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Go look on Steam at the games averaging around 20k.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I'm not super confident in my prediction either (will know more after the beta) but I just can't see PlayStation buying a studio because they can't differentiate between Concord and Redfall, Foamstars, Skull and Bones etc...

Sony could also fuck up the pricing for this

If it’s $70 it’s DOA

If it’s $39.99 with lots of content, modes, etc and no poor monetization policies it could do fine

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

The market is massive and growing.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

The reason HD2 is success, is because its acts as a game and treats you that way

How does this not act as a game?

 

[Heaven Angel]

No use of this thread, the public has spoken, why is this gaas game getting unwanted attention.

 

[T4keD0wN]

A large part of Team fortress 2, Valorant and Overwatch playerbases will play it for 1 week and then theyll slowly go back to playing their "forever game", if its a great game thats way better than any of those then maybe 5% will stay, if it isnt itll be closer to 1%

You can't teach an old dog new tricks and you cant teach X GAAS player to play an Y GAAS game.

Having over 50k shouldnt be hard for a free to play game (no way its paid when competition isnt), but 50k is not a "smash success" for a game like this as you would think.

50k is very good for something like Helldivers which is not only paid, but it has only 4 player matches across 1 "mode" type, this game will be 5v5 and that player base will likely be spread across ranked, unranked, quick match or however many game modes itll have.

Update: Nevermind, it has just leaked that its a paid game for some reason, i take back my vote, itll struggle to get enough players on steam to fill 2 teams in 4 months.

 

[ViciousAgenda]

Probably 20 to 30k to start with.

Likely to have a huge drop off when blops 6 releases.

Servers shut down after a year.

 

[Griffon]

It was funny for a while, but this starts to look like thinly veiled astroturfing.

Nobody gives a shit, move on.

 

[Wildebeest]

It doesn't look as fun as Dirty Bomb, and that peaked at 13k. Lawbreakers was also a lot fresher looking at the time and peaked at 7,500.

 

[coffinbirth]

HUGE...if it released four years ago.

 

[KyoZz]

Even 50K+ is not a "smash success", it's just 13% of the peak number of Helldivers II (458,208 all-time peak, just on Steam)
And 50K on what? All systems? Steam only? That poll doesn't make sense. My bad I saw it's on Steam.

No use of this thread, the public has spoken, why is this gaas game getting unwanted attention.

Because it's Sony. So here you have the usual team trying to defend this future crash by any means possible.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Even 50K+ is not a "smash success", it's just 13% of the peak number of Helldivers II (458,208 all-time peak, just on Steam)
And 50K on what? All systems? Steam only? That poll doesn't make sense.


Because it's Sony. So here you have the usual team trying to defend this future crash by any means possible.

I would say over 50k, 4 months after release, on Steam alone, would be considered a huge success for PlayStation.

For reference, Sea of Thieves hovered around 30k on Steam and seems to be a big hit for them. Rare was also likely a bigger studio than Firewalk.

Correction: Sea of Thieves hovered around 12k on Steam, not 30k.

 

[Punished Miku]

I was let down by the trailer too. But I think people need to take a step back and at least see what the game is like before claiming its completely worthless. They have a public beta so they're probably somewhat confident in the gameplay. Just try it out if you're interested. Might be more fun than the complete rock bottom people are portraying it as now.

As for market potential, I honestly dont know. The cheaper the game is, the better.

 

[KyoZz]

I would say over 50k, 4 months after release, on Steam alone, would be considered a huge success for PlayStation

Yeah I just saw the precisions on the poll, my bad. That makes sense, but this is what Helldivers II is pushing right now and I don't think for a single second this game will be more successful than HDII. Or on part with it.
So yeah, I would change my vote if I could and go with less than 5K. 5/10K is what I think the game will do on launch.

 

[El Muerto]

Depends. If it releases on PC on day 1 like Helldivers 2 did then I think it will stay above 50k. If PS only then it will tank like Redfall.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Lawbreakers looked kinda good to me but it flopped

Was it too hardcore? Men_in_Boxes

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Depends. If it releases on PC on day 1 like Helldivers 2 did then I think it will stay above 50k. If PS only then it will tank like Redfall.

It’s confirmed pc day 1

 

[FunkMiller]

Suicide Squad dead.

 

[Bring Back Scalebound]

I don't think there's any appeal in this game... Best case scenario, It will have a cult following. Worst case, dead.

You have seen the gameplay before. None of the characters are appealing in the Team Fortress way (Simple but very striking), or in the Overwatch way (Diverse eye candies, and sexually appealling).

Not to mention the MCU style writing, which they think means more personality, but in actuality, this guy

Has more personality then the entire cast of this game, and he doesn't even talk.

I can't think of a single thing that would be appealing about this game.

 

[Ribi]

People on PlayStation who like spending money but hate overwatch

 

[simpatico]

They would save millions by not launching it.

 

[Oppoi]

People will have so much fun playing this!

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Lawbreakers looked kinda good to me but it flopped

Was it too hardcore? Men_in_Boxes

I believe so.

Cliffy Bs idea was a new take on Unreal Tournament and Quake because he thought those games were awesome for the wrong reasons (high skill ceiling). He called Lawbreakers "The Dark Souls of Hero Shooters".

In reality, they were popular because they were novel and there was no competition in the market.

Friend groups play multiplayer games, and friend groups always vary widely in skill levels. If you're not making the friend group happy, you're breaking up the friend group. That's why I think this has a better shot that people are predicting. I think they'll cater to different player types & skill levels much better.

 

[Jaybe]

This Jon Weisnewski, the Lead Character Designer for Firewalk Studios seems completely unhinged. Probably a reason he’s ex-Bungie. I expect a game made by Bungie’s rejects to flop hard. It’s Dead On Arrival.

‘Concord’ Lead Character Designer Believes “Whites Must Acknowledge Their Privileged Position, And Then Actively Work For Equality” Also Claims The Judicial System Is “White Supremacy”​

'Concord' Lead Character Designer Believes "Whites Must Acknowledge Their Privileged Position, And Then Actively Work For Equality" Also Claims The Judicial System Is "White Supremacy"

Jon Weisnewski, the Lead Character Designer for Firewalk Studios, the developer of the recently announced Concord game, is a woke activist that buys into the claim that white people are “privileged.” Following PlayStation showcasing Concord as part of their most recent State of Play video at the...

thatparkplace.com

 

[semiconscious]

i think a 'no opinion' choice should be part of all of these polls. that way, someone like myself, who really has no interest in this game, &, consequently, no real business whatsoever coming into this thread in the first place, could also participate...

 

[simpatico]

This Jon Weisnewski, the Lead Character Designer for Firewalk Studios seems completely unhinged. Probably a reason he’s ex-Bungie. I expect a game made by Bungie’s rejects to flop hard. It’s Dead On Arrival.

‘Concord’ Lead Character Designer Believes “Whites Must Acknowledge Their Privileged Position, And Then Actively Work For Equality” Also Claims The Judicial System Is “White Supremacy”​

'Concord' Lead Character Designer Believes "Whites Must Acknowledge Their Privileged Position, And Then Actively Work For Equality" Also Claims The Judicial System Is "White Supremacy"

Jon Weisnewski, the Lead Character Designer for Firewalk Studios, the developer of the recently announced Concord game, is a woke activist that buys into the claim that white people are “privileged.” Following PlayStation showcasing Concord as part of their most recent State of Play video at the...

thatparkplace.com

343 wouldn't even take him? yikes

 

[Schmendrick]

F2P: Decent playerbase at launch thanks to being a Sony IP with a drastic decline into obscurity levels soon after.
Full price: DOA.
Reduced Price: probably DOA, too, depending on the monetisation.

 

[Neofire]

With the market we are in today I'm not counting it out. Remember people said the same thing about Fortnite.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

This Jon Weisnewski, the Lead Character Designer for Firewalk Studios seems completely unhinged. Probably a reason he’s ex-Bungie. I expect a game made by Bungie’s rejects to flop hard. It’s Dead On Arrival.

‘Concord’ Lead Character Designer Believes “Whites Must Acknowledge Their Privileged Position, And Then Actively Work For Equality” Also Claims The Judicial System Is “White Supremacy”​

'Concord' Lead Character Designer Believes "Whites Must Acknowledge Their Privileged Position, And Then Actively Work For Equality" Also Claims The Judicial System Is "White Supremacy"

Jon Weisnewski, the Lead Character Designer for Firewalk Studios, the developer of the recently announced Concord game, is a woke activist that buys into the claim that white people are “privileged.” Following PlayStation showcasing Concord as part of their most recent State of Play video at the...

thatparkplace.com

 

[squarealex]

What's the market potential for this game?

Has hot asian girl

 

[Draugoth]

The only reason Overwatch was a success was it because it was the first of the genre and had hot chicks

Concord is none of the above

 

[Zathalus]

No idea, the game looks super cringe, but the real proof would be how it plays.

 

[RoboFu]

Won't last a week.

 

[Jinzo Prime]

Has hot asian girl

Hot? Nah.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Hot? Nah.