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Digitimes Rumor: Nintendo to ship 10-12m NX units in 2016, mass production in Q2

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Haha, nice one. I just meant that newer chipsets are built more efficient, achieving more with less. This is something Nintendo is known for with previous consoles like the Gamecube.

That is true.

On the other hand they are likely to be using more off the shelf parts to keep costs down.
I really do hope it's a powerful machine.
 

TAJ

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Best Buy is going to be able to build entire new stores out of unsold NXs if this is true.
 

GrandiaX

Banned
Intersting... i think it's possible to ship that many units if the system has a worldwide launch in September... that way you can take advantage of the day 1 buyers and the holiday season.

as far as what the console will be.

Not sure. All we know is:

1. Shared OS between devices (assumption is handheld & home console)
2. Utilizes Sharp freeform display technology
3. Power rivals current gen systems
4. Patents have been filed for flash based technology.
5. Nintendo Network has seen steady upgrades to compete with PSN / Xbox Live
6. Third Party Developers have hinted that they have the SDK's
7. Analysts have hinted that the console will support AR / VR technology

With all this it looks as if Nintendo may get the NX right... but we all know that even with the right ingredients the end result could be terrible.

here's hoping thats not the case.

6cc.jpg
 

The_Lump

Banned
That is true.

On the other hand they are likely to be using more off the shelf parts to keep costs down.
I really do hope it's a powerful machine.

Yeah me too. I would hope for parity with PS4 but I'm not really expecting that tbh. I think it will come out with similar but slightly lower spec on paper than PS4, with a few contemporary tweaks. Sort of like the WiiU > 360 comparison.

That's at best ;)
 
Both. Well, let me think it through actually and I'll be straight up before I engage in further conversation on the matter. I've heard through the grapevine that 14nm may be on the table. This is like 3rd hand, but it seems to line up w/ reports out of AMD and GF as of late.

Then there's that Tamaki dude on Twitter/Unseen64. He said it wasn't meant to compete on graphics w/ PS4. Granted, the guy comes across somewhat poorly in this tweets. But on the one podcast, he further expanded on it, and the hosts basically agreed with him. Some of what he said was also very similar to something another poster on this board heard. I don't feel like calling that person out, though, because that kind of thing keeps fun leaked tidbits from happening.

But beyond that, we have only basic economics at work.


I'm not even thinking about CPU right now. They could slap an 8 core ARM Cortex A57 @ 2 Ghz and it would be comparable to PS4/Xbone. Or they could go w/ a 28nm Carrizo-esque chip on the cheap. I think they'll want a common ISA w/ the handheld CPU, though, so I still think ARM cores. AMD have a Cortex A72 licence as well, but work on the NX SoC likely started before. In fact, I think it was originally meant to be 20nm back when people still expected 20nm to be a more useful node.
We've talked about the likely interpretation of the "industry leading chips" comment. Vulkan API, different CPU ISA, and your general early dev kit hiccups could have easily lead to framerate drops even on souped up dev workstations.
I would like to see you or someone else propose a setup w/ AMD parts that could outperform PS4 and remain economical. I mean, I know AMD are banking on these gigantic (slim margin) semi custom contracts, but Nintendo have sold ~65 million pieces of hardware combined this gen. Could they possibly have gotten that much better a deal than the Sony and MS ones, which AMD already take bare minimal in profits from?

Look up the Potato Masher on YouTube (I am not able at the moment) it's a $350 PC built with off the shelf parts to compete with PS4 and it outperforms it. I am not seeing the extreme difficulty personally. Also console parts are bought in bulk, it's certainly possible for Nintendo accomplish at a good price, they could take a small loss too and make it up with software and Amiibo.
 
That is the point. Before Apple I don't think a single person thought they needed a new cellphone every year. Look at us now.

My point is that people are willing to buy new apple stuff every year. Whereas most people would bot be willing to give the same treatment to Nintendo.

Besides cellphones are tied to contracts that seeming make them cost only a fraction of their real cost. Nintendo don't have such subsides to help them.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
Yeah me too. I would hope for parity with PS4 but I'm not really expecting that tbh. I think it will come out with similar but slightly lower spec on paper than PS4, with a few contemporary tweaks. Sort of like the WiiU > 360 comparison.

That's at best ;)

Yep. That's my current thinking as well.
 
I thinks it going to be a heater/AC unit to help improve peoples quality of life.


I like the theory that they [Nintendo] are manufacturing many units, so the cost per unit goes down. And if the they distributed dev kits this year devs, presumably, can port their already existing games to the NX like Mankind Dividend, it's not like third parties are going to make a lot exclusives for Nintendo, its Nintendos job to make exclusives for the NX.

As far as the leaks we should be getting, maybe Foxccon got better at keeping secrets?


But my theory still stands, its a heater/AC!
 
Okay so your not competing with ps4? Then why not keep the WiiU goin. I think Nintendo is going to be very happy with the Black Friday sales this year. Based on what I'm hearing

This console better have some magic apparatus that draws everyone in because why release something that will be marginally more powerful then WiiU, if it's less power then xbox one you will have a hard time selling people on diff in graphics
 
Look up the Potato Masher on YouTube (I am not able at the moment) it's a $350 PC built with off the shelf parts to compete with PS4 and it outperforms it. I am not seeing the extreme difficulty personally. Also console parts are bought in bulk, it's certainly possible for Nintendo accomplish at a good price, they could take a small loss too and make it up with software and Amiibo.

Oh, if NVidia and intel were in the game that would be a whole different story! :D

The setup from his Youtube:

i5 750 overclocked to 3.7 ghz
Asus H55 LGA 1156 motherboard
4GB DDR3 memory
GTX 760
320GB Samsung Spinpoint HDD
Cooler Master Wavemaster Case
Arctic Alpine 11 GT cpu cooler
Logitech wireless mouse and keyboard

I think Nintendo really want to differentiate themselves by making a small and stylish console again. The Xbone is a hulking brute and the PS4 sounds like a jet engine in order to maintain its form factor. They'll probably settle w/ a ~1 TFLOP GPU. RAM setup will be the interesting part.

PS4 has the high-end console space won. Nintendo can take the low end entirely in Japan and perhaps be competitive in the rest of the world, although I expect Xbone to make some good headway w/ the holidays. Offering essentially a 2x Nvidia Shield TV (in hardware power) would blow every other small set top box out of the water.
 
Are you saying this so that you won't be disappointed? Or is it based on information u got ?

What else could it realistically be? Everything else is either financially risky (and Nintendo has always been a financially conservative company) or not interesting enough to pursue in comparison to VR or AR.

Those are the next big frontiers for I/O innovation and it'd be stupid for Nintendo to not have an option to throw into the mix.

Look up the Potato Masher on YouTube (I am not able at the moment) it's a $350 PC built with off the shelf parts to compete with PS4 and it outperforms it. I am not seeing the extreme difficulty personally. Also console parts are bought in bulk, it's certainly possible for Nintendo accomplish at a good price, they could take a small loss too and make it up with software and Amiibo.
Nintendo has never been about having the most powerful console. They just happened to have had the most powerful console in one generation (N64) due to release schedule and, obviously, Moore's Law being in effect.

There's little doubt in my mind that NX is going to be at least some measurable ability more powerful than PS4 if indeed Nintendo's making a play for core gamers again, but it's not going to be b/c that's their absolute top goal, and as such it's not going to be like what Dreamcast was to N64, though it'll probably be a good bit more than what Wii U turned out to be compared to 360 and PS3.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Both. Well, let me think it through actually and I'll be straight up before I engage in further conversation on the matter. I've heard through the grapevine that 14nm may be on the table. This is like 3rd hand, but it seems to line up w/ reports out of AMD and GF as of late.

Then there's that Tamaki dude on Twitter/Unseen64. He said it wasn't meant to compete on graphics w/ PS4. Granted, the guy comes across somewhat poorly in this tweets. But on the one podcast, he further expanded on it, and the hosts basically agreed with him. Some of what he said was also very similar to something another poster on this board heard. I don't feel like calling that person out, though, because that kind of thing keeps fun leaked tidbits from happening.

But beyond that, we have only basic economics at work.


I'm not even thinking about CPU right now. They could slap an 8 core ARM Cortex A57 @ 2 Ghz and it would be comparable to PS4/Xbone. Or they could go w/ a 28nm Carrizo-esque chip on the cheap. I think they'll want a common ISA w/ the handheld CPU, though, so I still think ARM cores. AMD have a Cortex A72 licence as well, but work on the NX SoC likely started before. In fact, I think it was originally meant to be 20nm back when people still expected 20nm to be a more useful node.
We've talked about the likely interpretation of the "industry leading chips" comment. Vulkan API, different CPU ISA, and your general early dev kit hiccups could have easily lead to framerate drops even on souped up dev workstations.
I would like to see you or someone else propose a setup w/ AMD parts that could outperform PS4 and remain economical. I mean, I know AMD are banking on these gigantic (slim margin) semi custom contracts, but Nintendo have sold ~65 million pieces of hardware combined this gen. Could they possibly have gotten that much better a deal than the Sony and MS ones, which AMD already take bare minimal in profits from?

Got it. Then, what are your current expectations, performance-wise (I mean, how the home compares to PS4/One and how the handheld compares to Vita)? Just to get it clearer :p
 
I'm quite curious to see how Nintendo does. Can they really reverse their fortunes? Or will it be the Sega situation all over. You can't ever fully rule out Nintendo but what can they do.

Yes, because Nintendo is billions in debt and weak leadership.

(comparing Nintendo now to Sega before the deluge may be fashionable, but it's extremely far from the truth. Even PACHTER backtracked on his "Nintendo should go third party" declaration in his latest video)
 

4Tran

Member

The_Lump

Banned
Yes, because Nintendo is billions in debt and weak leadership.

(comparing Nintendo now to Sega before the deluge may be fashionable, but it's extremely far from the truth. Even PACHTER backtracked on his "Nintendo should go third party" declaration in his latest video)

Well unfortunately in that case - using my tried and tested "Pachter Opinion Interpretation Matrix® - we can now deduce that Nintendo should indeed go 3rd party.
 
Got it. Then, what are your current expectations, performance-wise (I mean, how the home compares to PS4/One and how the handheld compares to Vita)? Just to get it clearer :p

Pretty much laid it out in the post above.

Optimistically a 14nm chip:

With an optical drive. Although they will release a digital-only sku. The question is when and for how much?

~1 TFLOP AMD GPU
~8 Core CPU: ARM Cortex A57 (or a big/little type thing w/ 4xA57+4xA53)

RAM is tricky, but it will likely be 4-8 GB of DDR4 at medium speed in combined w/ a smaller pool of higher speed RAM Anywhere from 32 MB of eSRAM like Xbone to a couple gigs of HBM optimistically.
 
Have any recent (gamecube and onward)Nintedo games been known for pushing technical boundaries? If not I don't see what they truly gain from going for parity with the PS4 aside from bad press of being 'underpowered' like with the Wii U and possibly better 3rd party support but that might have more to do with what the console is and what gimmick they try to push. Serious question though, (excuse my ignorance)

The competition would be nice though and will hopefully bring down PS4 prices and hopefully the handheld is a worthy succesor to the 3ds.
 
Yes, because Nintendo is billions in debt and weak leadership.

(comparing Nintendo now to Sega before the deluge may be fashionable, but it's extremely far from the truth. Even PACHTER backtracked on his "Nintendo should go third party" declaration in his latest video)
It's not all that out of line a comparison.

If Nintendo doesn't reverse their fortunes w/ NX, they will not be able to sustain hardware development within the next decade. It doesn't matter how much money they have in reserve b/c the rate they'd end up burning through that on new hardware R & D that would result in hardware that doesn't sell, would outstrip whatever income they are making by magnitudes. They'd eventually end up short on cash.

All of their other efforts like expansion into mobile and the theme parks are nice side things, but their health and relevancy, at least initially until they find their own footing, relies on the sales strength of those properties in the console industry. And I wouldn't say Nintendo's leadership has been strong over the years at all, otherwise they would not have slipped up so badly with Wii U and 3DS :/

Just calling it how it is.
 

AmyS

Member
The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).

In terms of GPU performance and graphics capabilities, GameCube was actually the 2nd most powerful console of the 6th gen.

#1 Xbox
#2 GameCube
#3 PlayStation 2
#4 Dreamcast

GameCube was both fairly powerful and highly efficient, and, although it released in late 2001 at almost the same time Xbox launched, the GameCube hardware design was started at a time during the late 90s where the intention was to release it in 2000, unlike the original Xbox, which went into development during 1999-2000, after Dolphin did in 1998-1999.

Was GameCube as powerful as the original Xbox? No, but it was certainly more powerful than PlayStation 2, nevermind Dreamcast.
 

Aroll

Member
nope, just speculation. Hard to believe they intend to ship 10-12m NX units in 2016 if it's only a console or only a handheld, though. Both combined? That's doable.

Yeah, you would figure that's combined, with Nintendo producing 20 mil "just in case" it becomes a huge hit out the gate (one or both platforms).
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Pretty much laid it out in the post above.

Optimistically a 14nm chip:

With an optical drive. Although they will release a digital-only sku. The question is when and for how much?

~1 TFLOP AMD GPU
~8 Core CPU: ARM Cortex A57 (or a big/little type thing w/ 4xA57+4xA53)

RAM is tricky, but it will likely be 4-8 GB of DDR4 at medium speed in combined w/ a smaller pool of higher speed RAM Anywhere from 32 MB of eSRAM like Xbone to a couple gigs of HBM optimistically.

Ok, I have a clearer idea about your expectations on the home SKU...what about your expectations on the handheld?
 
So do people think the NX will be backwards compatible, or not? Part of me looks at Nintendo's history, plus the fact that the Wii U sold so horribly and feels like it's a no-brainer. The other part of me thinks that if Nintendo wants to be competitive they need to overhaul their hardware architecture, which would make BC a lot more expensive, and we all know how Nintendo likes to pinch pennies.
 

big_z

Member
Unless Nintendo has a wii sports like system seller wanting to ship 20 million in 2016 is crazy. Plus they have to market the nx correctly and in a tiny time frame if e3 is the big reveal.


Nx is going to live or die based on whatever mega software Nintendo has been working on and what ever super secret deals they've made over the last few years with select developers. A majority of third party software is going to be ports. So many hurldes the Nx has the steepest hill to climb.
 

sinxtanx

Member
I'm almost starting to think NX and QoL have merged at this point. At the very least NX will definitely have some compatibility w/ any QoL products or services they push out.

QoL is an entirely separate business venture for Nintendo that has no bearing on their gaming anything. The first QoL product is a sleep sensor, release unknown.
 
Ok, I have a clearer idea about your expectations on the home SKU...what about your expectations on the handheld?

Handheld is much harder for me to say. I haven't thought about it quite as much for one, but also we don't know the size of the thing. They could very well come out w/ a 7" NX tablet first. It's worth noting that AMD have yet to show they can create a chip w/ lower than 10" tablet worth of TDP. Nintendo could have licensed PowerVR, though, and have someone other than AMD manufacturing the chip. Granted, I brought up an interview long ago where an AMD guy was obviously pushing for the Nintendo handheld deal, but who knows if they really got it? Or maybe it's for a 3rd pillar NX tablet?

4 core ARM processor (A53, A57, or some combination thereof)
Single Screen 540p-720p And don't rule out 4:3
It won't quite be as good as Wii U level visuals, but it'll look nice.

Gamecard media. Only certain downloaded games or special promotion games will be cross play and cross buy. All Virtual Console games should be.
 
That is true.

On the other hand they are likely to be using more off the shelf parts to keep costs down.
I really do hope it's a powerful machine.

You do realize every console manufacturer uses a combination of customized and off the shelf parts, right? It'd be dumb not to. The days of esoteric and exotic console HW are gone
 

StevieP

Banned
Handheld is much harder for me to say. I haven't thought about it quite as much for one, but also we don't know the size of the thing. They could very well come out w/ a 7" NX tablet first. It's worth noting that AMD have yet to show they can create a chip w/ lower than 10" tablet worth of TDP. Nintendo could have licensed PowerVR, though, and have someone other than AMD manufacturing the chip. Granted, I brought up an interview long ago where an AMD guy was obviously pushing for the Nintendo handheld deal, but who knows if they really got it? Or maybe it's for a 3rd pillar NX tablet?

4 core ARM processor (A53, A57, or some combination thereof)
Single Screen 540p-720p And don't rule out 4:3
It won't quite be as good as Wii U level visuals, but it'll look nice.

Gamecard media. Only certain downloaded games or special promotion games will be cross play and cross buy. All Virtual Console games should be.

Handhelds gonna be 16:9
 

radcliff

Member
I wonder if in addition to 1) a $150 - $200 handheld at around wii u power level at 540p and 2) a $250 - $300 home console at around ps4 power level, Nintendo will also release a console lite that would be a console at the power level of the handheld that would output handheld level graphics to a tv at 1080p. They could theoretically sell it for about $99 - $150 and even make it the main console they sell in secondary markets. I think it was either Iwata or Miyamoto who said they always wanted to release a console for $100. Well, this could be a way for them to do it.
 
Okay so your not competing with ps4? Then why not keep the WiiU goin. I think Nintendo is going to be very happy with the Black Friday sales this year. Based on what I'm hearing

This console better have some magic apparatus that draws everyone in because why release something that will be marginally more powerful then WiiU, if it's less power then xbox one you will have a hard time selling people on diff in graphics

Exactly. That is why I slightly disagree with Fouth, Miyamoto wants a gamers console again, he basically said so last year in an interview about why the Wii U failed.

My expectations based on everything we know so far and rumors:

NX home console will be more powerful (or perform better with modern chipsets) than PS4, just enough to have the best ports that are not for PC to help with getting Third Party back and to have a more robust gaming lineup. NX will also have something unique about it that can't be done on other consoles or PC, to give it an edge. I'm sure the mobile aspect is not the only thing they have up their sleeves.

Nintendo will make a powerful console if it means developers will make games for it and gamers go where there are "games" to play. It's a means to an end for Nintendo, they would keep making Wii level hardware and more wacky controllers if they thought they could still get away with it.They have billions in the bank and they have no debt.
 

Kataploom

Gold Member
People like a to speculate about if the console SKU is gonna be more or less powerful than PS4, but as I can see in Iwata words related to more and different form factors for different markets, they could just announce two different versions of the console (high and low spec) to appeal casual players price-competitive and core players that don't care that much about the price but want the best experience. Both running the same games at different resolution and so.

Maybe releasing one next year and the other a bit later, maybe both at the same time. I think that is a good way to deal with both audiences without trying to make a single box that fails to appeal either.

Edit: I'm not talking about console and handheld but two home console versions (or more)
 
I'm worried too. At the same time it's basic knowledge that a low power console will, again, remove them from having third party support. Which was basically the beginning of the end for the Wii U. Only an idiot would greenlight a console that follows the same errors.

If they go that route, that raises the question of why they don't rehabilitate the Wii U. Dumping one underpowered console for another mid-gen isn't going to bring them back to the Wii/DS salad days.
 

MAtgS

Member
So do people think the NX will be backwards compatible, or not? Part of me looks at Nintendo's history, plus the fact that the Wii U sold so horribly and feels like it's a no-brainer. The other part of me thinks that if Nintendo wants to be competitive they need to overhaul their hardware architecture, which would make BC a lot more expensive, and we all know how Nintendo likes to pinch pennies.

I predict double BC, both handheld & console playing both 3DS & Wii U games.
 

atbigelow

Member
People like a to speculate about if the console SKU is gonna be more or less powerful than PS4, but as I can see in Iwata words related to more and different form factors for different markets, they could just announce two different versions of the console (high and low spec) to appeal casual players price-competitive and core players that don't care that much about the price but want the best experience. Both running the same games at different resolution and so.

Maybe releasing one next year and the other a bit later, maybe both at the same time. I think that is a good way to deal with both audiences without trying to make a single box that fails to appeal either.

Edit: I'm not talking about console and handheld but two home console versions (or more)
That is exactly my prediction. They want to be able to hit that $100/150 price point. Not sure if at launch they'll do it, but I imagine they will have:

NX Home: "tier 2" console with optical drive, Ethernet, etc. Power user features. Plays tier 1 and 2 games at 1080p.
NX Go: "tier 1" machine. Handheld with ~4" screen.
NX Go XL: "tier 1" machine. Handheld with ~5" screen.
NX TV: "tier 1" console. Plays all tier 1 games at 720p.


Lots of SKUs, but Nintendo has shown to be fine with it.
 

MAtgS

Member
That is exactly my prediction. They want to be able to hit that $100/150 price point. Not sure if at launch they'll do it, but I imagine they will have:

NX Home: "tier 2" console with optical drive, Ethernet, etc. Power user features. Plays tier 1 and 2 games at 1080p.
NX Go: "tier 1" machine. Handheld with ~4" screen.
NX Go XL: "tier 1" machine. Handheld with ~5" screen.
NX TV: "tier 1" console. Plays all tier 1 games at 720p.


Lots of SKUs, but Nintendo has shown to be fine with it.

NX Pad: Tier 1.5 tablet to tap into the tablet market. More powerful than Go, less powerful than Home/TV. Plus some integration with their mobile games & QoL. Would get kinda silly keeping that all straight.
 

Roo

Member
People like a to speculate about if the console SKU is gonna be more or less powerful than PS4, but as I can see in Iwata words related to more and different form factors for different markets, they could just announce two different versions of the console (high and low spec) to appeal casual players price-competitive and core players that don't care that much about the price but want the best experience. Both running the same games at different resolution and so.

Maybe releasing one next year and the other a bit later, maybe both at the same time. I think that is a good way to deal with both audiences without trying to make a single box that fails to appeal either.

Edit: I'm not talking about console and handheld but two home console versions (or more)


Let's be real, Nintendo could come up with 5 different versions of their home console to please everyone and people (dedicated gamers) would still only care about the higher specs one and how it compares to the PS4/Xbone so I don't really see your point.
 

Griss

Member
I find some of the price predictions / expectations for anything on this website hilarious.

Yes, Nintendo's new console will launch between $100-150, and the PSVR will be $150-200, and the HTC Vive will be $200-250, and you can put together a PC to drive it for years for just $300-350.

Anything more than any of those prices and these nasty companies are just gouging you!

I mean, a dinner out with a friend comes to about $100 after wine where I'm at. That's some fucking chicken, potatoes and fermented grapes cooked by people who don't exactly need doctorates to do their jobs. But the technological product of accumulated genius upon genius in chip development over the years to create the APU, the massive undertaking of software engineers in OS design and programming, all that additional hardware (controller etc), all the production costs to put it together, all the R&D, all the minerals it takes to make everything, marketing expenses, the shipping costs, the retailer's cut...

Somehow all of that should add up to about $150 for this thing. Man, I don't understand it. I really don't.

My rule with Nintendo: take what would be best for them or what would make most sense, then add $50. So for the handheld I'm expecting $250, for the console $350. Goes without saying that I think $200 and $300 are far better price points and what I'm hoping for. Either that or multiple SKUs.

Number one factor is that the thing needs to be desirable, though. If you get that right price doesn't matter half as much.
 

Fdkn

Member
It's not like Nintendo making overly optimistic forecasts is unheard of.

WiiU forecast in 2014 was 9 million (so they obviously had to produce most if not all of them as they really expected to sell that amount) and we know how that ended.
 

4Tran

Member
If they go that route, that raises the question of why they don't rehabilitate the Wii U. Dumping one underpowered console for another mid-gen isn't going to bring them back to the Wii/DS salad days.
The Wii U has a high BOM and is a poisoned brand as far as the greater gaming industry is concerned. Even if the NX console is more anemic than the Xbone it will still have more potential than the Wii U. The price point will be very tricky to navigate though. If the NX console is weak then it has to have a much lower price than the Xbone/PS4 or else it'll probably be condemned to the same audience that's already on the Wii U.
 
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