I gotta give props to the OP for noting the worldwide recession as a potential cause for how the past few years MS has operated on the Xbox. While I disagree with the assertion made relating to the recession (MS could've weathered that storm without making the massive cuts in dev teams that they did), most people underestimate or flat-out ignore the myriad number of effects that the recession has had on the gaming industry.
The only reasonable thing that I would hope to be surprised by is the OS-level and online features that Microsoft can offer next-gen. They excelled at the launch of the 360 on this front and easily justified the cost of Xbox Live. If they want to continue justifying this cost, they have to offer several new services and advancements that no one else can. They have been largely treading water on this front, aside from Kinect stuff that has largely flopped, so I can only hope that they have been pouring a lot of research and innovation into features for the next Xbox.
Recently it seems as if Microsoft has become complacent and even arrogant in its success. Between putting more (and more invasive) ads on the dashboard to raising the cost of Xbox Live and keeping apps behind a paywall that no one else requires to offer the exact same services, it seems to me that they are operating under the assumption that the current (extremely profitable) status quo is sustainable for them, even as the online landscape has seen drastic changes in the past few years, many of which have chipped away at the current value of Xbox Live. And, knowing how big, bloated, and bureaucratic Microsoft is, if they haven't realized the error in my supposed perception of their assumption by now, it will take them too long to change course once they set themselves on it for another generation of consoles.
I'm already much more on guard regarding the first-party games that MS reveals because their current stable of exclusive studios are far less proven than Sony's are. Both Microsoft and Sony have made some deep cuts in their first-party rosters in the past few years, with Microsoft's cuts happening a couple years ago and Sony's more in the past year. But while Sony still left them selves with a healthy and large lineup after their occasionally awful cuts (RIP Sony Liverpool!), Microsoft cut far too deep and left themselves with a skeleton crew of studios unable to do more than Forza and a few Kinect games, much less what would be needed up front for a new console. Let alone that they won't get exclusives from Bungie and probably Epic this time around either.
They've realized their mistake and have created plenty of new studios recently, many of which assuredly have talented people at them (plenty of talent has gone jobless due to the recession), but now Microsoft is in a position where most of their first-party studios they are depending on to support the next Xbox with exclusives have never shipped a game. It's going to be really tough for me to get hyped by some trailer or gameplay demo for an ambitious new game if the studio responsible has never shipped a game before. It isn't like it is impossible for a new studio to deliver the goods in this situation, because Forza Horizon is an awesome game and it came from a new studio under Microsoft's wing, but this seems like the exception rather than the rule.
At least with Sony's studios, they all have proven track records. I already know that Sucker Punch can deliver great open-world games with unique protagonists. I already know that Naughty Dog can deliver amazing experiences when they have the time to do so (and when they don't, we get Uncharted 3...). I already know that Guerrilla Games can make shooters with extremely solid gunplay and innovative multiplayer while delivering a visual feast, even if all of their games have had various issues.
There is something to be said for reputation. While not all of Sony's first party studios have sterling reputations, at least they have them.