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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Well ps4 is about to get a boost in Japan before Bloodborne with Dragon Quest Heroes. Plus both Bloodborne and The Order will be just fine. People always seem to forget that making a game for a single platform keeps production cost lower and thus it doesn't need to sell as much. Plus both games are getting great amount of attention right now in an otherwise slow time of year.
Jimmyfenix
Member
I want to know how pre orders are for Battlefield Hardline if possible
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Can't find much on Europe, but it didn't contribute anything to that 740K number.
Any link to the post? Trying to find it, but it's quite difficult.
bananafactory
Banned
Error 404: Preorders not found
You guys take any possible negative thing and run far across the universe with it. The Order is out next week. BB next month. It's obvious closer to release pre orders will pick up. Pre orders don't tell all anyway. BB will not flop.
Chobel
Member
slavesnyder
Member
Bloodborne will do just fine. There is no pressure for this game to sell like a blockbuster, but it is essentiel for ps4 to offer diversity. and it will rise the appeal for it in japan, what is important. The Order, bashed and laughed at for quite a while seems to turn out surprisingly good as a game. this, plus the graphics plus the marketing could result in not only very nice sales numbers, but also drive hardware a lot.
these are some really interesting games to follow.
these are some really interesting games to follow.
Welfare
Member
I don't think expansion packs get a lot of pre orders.
Thanks for the correction, then.
Well, while I didn't find this post, I found another possibly interesting one, after all. From one month ago as well, though.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147077015&postcount=60
Especially the EDIT about preorders and actual numbers.
Jimmyfenix
Member
To be honest, what makes me worried about BB is what Osiris said here
That's what triggered my reaction, at least. Still, it's true that we need to see what's going to happen nearer to the release. Heck, I have to admit that TO:1886 will probably make me eat a crow. I though it would have been a failure (not like DriveClub in US, though...still not a great result), but in this last month its charting trend on Amazon.com improved drastically (maybe due to more promotion by Sony?). It's true that Amazon.com tends to be "biased" towards core/some Sony releases, but the game's recent trend makes me think the "bias" has a minor part in the probably pretty good debut for the game.
However, it seems I won't eat it for Evolve. The game is dropping fast.
That's what triggered my reaction, at least. Still, it's true that we need to see what's going to happen nearer to the release. Heck, I have to admit that TO:1886 will probably make me eat a crow. I though it would have been a failure (not like DriveClub in US, though...still not a great result), but in this last month its charting trend on Amazon.com improved drastically (maybe due to more promotion by Sony?). It's true that Amazon.com tends to be "biased" towards core/some Sony releases, but the game's recent trend makes me think the "bias" has a minor part in the probably pretty good debut for the game.
However, it seems I won't eat it for Evolve. The game is dropping fast.
Jimmyfenix
Member
What Amazon Bias?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
That would be great. After Sony got From back for another exclusive I can't see them not giving the game a proper push this time.
illmatic22
Banned
Sony should know that something like Bloodborne won't sell as much as a mainstream title like The Order.
I know it's probably an inadequate term, but, basically, it's the tendency of Amazon of showing games aimed at more core gamers (including Sony games in this) higher or (maybe more correctly) "stronger" than what the actual numbers represent then. If you want a big example of that, and a non-linked-to-Sony one on top of that, well...Bayonetta 2. But there are other games that, while surely doing well, didn't have such gigantic debuts despite their Amazon showing (Bravely Default).
That much is obvious. I expect it to be like Sony's Sunset Overdrive: not so much similar in style, but in that it's a title meant to appeal to enthusiasts, and in PS4s case, Japan. Adding diversity to an exclusive lineup is never a bad thing.
There's a Bloodborne bundle in Europe right? It seems they are trying to get the souls players from PC and Xbox to convert to Ps4.
bananafactory
Banned
If the Dark Souls 2 number of 1.2 million for 3 weeks is right, I don't know what hope Bloodborne has of hitting 1 million in 4 weeks on a far smaller install base.
illmatic22
Banned
Right, just like Scalebound for MS.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Smaller but far more active install base
The Shogun
Banned
Pretty bold giving out exact numbers like that
StrongBlackVine
Banned
inFAMOUS is not a huge seller and did 1 million in 9 days. Much better then the previous game did on a much higher install base. It don't think it is that simple.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Bloodborne has a bit more hype surrounding it though and not much competition really. PS4 owners, though a smaller install base has nothing to do with how active that base is in buying games. Part of the problem with Dark Souls 2 was that it released post PS4 and X1 and didn't release on those consoles. A lot of active buyers from PS360 era have moved on to the new consoles and are not looking back. Honestly it would likely had sold more on PS4 and X1 even though they have a fraction of the "install base" as the PS360. Same thing haunted GT6 and Borderlands the Prequel.
Jimmyfenix
Member
Hmmm
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Not really. Scalebound nor Sunset Overdrive had/have any pre-established fan bases to capitalize on. No one even knows what Scalebound is about, just who is making it(and their games sale poorly).
If you actually went to Amazon the price you would see was always less than 399 because 3rd party retailers were displayed. So the average person going to Amazon would never see that the Xbox price went to $399 unless they dug. Even if you go there now the price is below 349.
demigod
Member
I'm one of those people.
bananafactory
Banned
Very good point. Hope it does well, the game looks great
SnowFlakeCake
Member
Are they wrong? The game has no buzz, cannot see it breaking anymore than 300k first month at absolute best. Sony exclusives do shit in America and so far not much has changed with the PS4.
The Shogun
Banned
GAF flips shit when I comment on these things so not going there
Interesting read though
Uhh have you looked at the gaming discussion thread page the past week or so? There is always at least 2 order threads present. Here's a few just to prove the point:
- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=989243
- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=987386
- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=988046
- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=985163
There's also a fairly popular spoiler thread that I wont link here.
Despite what some might think the game is getting a lot of positive attention lately which has led to a lot of horrendous trolling. I'm really curious to see how well the game sells.
Aquamarine
Member
>780K, actually
SnowFlakeCake
Member
Ah come on bruh, come on give us your input. You know you want to, who cares if people get pissy over it? This is a forum where people discuss video games and shitty comic book movies, can't do that in real life.
NeoGaf popularity =/= real world
If it did, bloodborne would already have 5 million copies pre-ordered but don't look like that has happened. This is an enthusiast website, nothing more and nothing less so for better or worse it does not represent the general gaming population. The Order having some nice threads means nothing in the real world.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Ah come on bruh, come on give us your input. You know you want to, who cares if people get pissy over it? This is a forum where people discuss video games and shitty comic book movies, can't do that in real life.
NeoGaf popularity =/= real world
If it did, bloodborne would already have 5 million copies pre-ordered but don't look like that has happened. This is an enthusiast website, nothing more and nothing less so for better or worse it does not represent the general gaming population. The Order having some nice threads means nothing in the real world.
The Order 1886 is currently the #16 item in the Amazon top 100 videogames hourly ranking and the only full priced game in the top 20. It will most likely climb much higher the closer it gets to launch. That is is real world stat for you.
But its also #16 on Amazon best sellers and has been in the top 20 pretty much all week. Not to mention its seen a significant advertising push that seems to have been very effective.
Edit: Beaten
anexanhume
Member
The collector's edition is #77 as well.
SnowFlakeCake
Member
Look at the games in front of The Order on that list. GTA V which has been out a few months is handily beating it is as are two 3DS games, for a game just a week away that's pretty awful.
Also Amazon, come on lads and lasses.
Also Amazon, come on lads and lasses.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
All of those games are cheaper. Popular games always get a sales spike there when they get major price drops. Those two popular 3DS games release on Friday so it is expected they would be higher right now. News flash: the 3DS is allowed to have high-selling games. Amazon is a huge retailer. Not sure what what you are trying to argue, but you are losing.
GTAV beats everything. Have you not seen the sales numbers on that game? The 3DS games are releasing within a few days and as you said the Order isn't released until the 20th so this is solely preorder numbers. There are sure to be a lot more sales as we approach release and then again on day one. You're way too quick to dismiss what everyone is saying.
KillerMan91
Member
Eh? Sony had plenty of games that did well in America even during last gen. Or are you putting barrier to somewhere like 3 million?
Even at 3 million there were bound to be some titles that broke that barrier. TLOU or UC2 perhaps. Aqua do you happen to have record of lifetime sales of Sony Published best sellers in NPD?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Gran Turismo 5?
KillerMan91
Member
Dunno about 3 million but over 2 million I would guess that at least UC2, UC3, TLoU, GOWIII and GT5 went over that. Then for one million (which is still solid number for one region) even more titles. It's complete nonsense that Sony games don't sell in America. They just don't pull Halo or Mario Kart numbers.
Edit. Actually GOWIII was at 2.81 million in Americas over two years ago. Could be over 3 million.
Would I be wrong in saying it only sold that much given it's relatively early release in the PS4's life?
Granted The Order/Bloodborne are in pretty similar situations, but the market is much more saturated with quality games than it was 4 months into launch.
Aquamarine
Member
GT5 isn't as high as you think it is in USA NPD.
Don't get me wrong...it still sold fantastic....but it's more of an absolute beast in Europe.
Don't get me wrong...it still sold fantastic....but it's more of an absolute beast in Europe.
Aquamarine
Member
I'm on my Note 4 on a Metro North train leaving Grand Central. Maybe later.
Oh good one. Can't believe I didn't think of that.
Halo sales have proven incredibly front loaded with little to no legs on the pas two major releases (Halo 4 and MCC) it wouldn't surprise me if some of the above titles ended up outselling them LTD in the US given the cliff sales fell off. Mario Kart and Smash are in a league all their own though as far sales and attach rates go. Regardless the dialogue that Sony published titles don't sell in the US is factually false. We know for a fact that they do sell and some go on to sell quite well. Just because every release is not a massive blockbuster success story doesnt mean their software fails to resonate with the market.
By all means. No rush.