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[Inuhanyou]

I think its very clear to see. MS blew their load. The people who bought XB1's in the holiday season were moms who wanted to get the cheapest unit for their kid, and other peoples who just could not withstand the major deals with all the bundles.

Nobody gives a feck about a 50 dollar difference between the two units in the off season when everything slows down and MS isnt throwing the kitchen sink in there. That's cause PS4 is just passively more popular than XB1 among core and casual gamers now.

Completely flipped the script from 360 and PS3. Now its PS4 which is the(closest to being the) successor to 360 in America. And this is alongside Sony's already massive presence in the rest of the world.

 

[Freeman]

The XB1 is 50$ cheaper with 2 bundled games and still it was bested in the US. Things look grim for the XB1 with The Order, Bloodborne and MLB just up ahead(I also think FF will sell much better on PS4)

 

[RBK]

Just in case there was any doubt.

 

[bananafactory]

The XB1 is 50$ cheaper with 2 bundled games and still it was bested in the US. Things look grim for the XB1 with The Order and Bloodborne just up ahead.

Yeah I wonder what their strategy is going to be from now until whenever the next big exclusive...is that Quantum Break?

 

[jn20900]

Almost every game sold more on XBone though. That's definetely not good for the PS4.

Not necessarily to be honest. Pay attention to all the games that sold more they are older games. The people who finally got the system during holidays are now able to play them but look at a newer game like Dying light it sold more on PS4.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Surprised at GTA, but maybe it had PS4 bundles due to the co-marketing?

The software splits really shows us again that the MS did an amazing job of establishing the Xbox as the console for sports and shooters in the US. Very impressive, but possibly hindering them with every other audience now too? Or still appealing outside their base, they're just not as good at courting a broad market spectrum as Sony is?

 

[Kayant]

?

huh I should check out this new shooter Madden game

It's great Playing it now

Spoiler

On PS6

 

[Jamix012]

Hardware down is alarming. Last January was already a disaster in terms of sales, so it being further down? Unless it's entirely accounted for by the 3DS, that's worrying.

 

[Bgamer90]

Surprised at GTA, but maybe it had PS4 bundles due to the co-marketing?

Yeah, I'm thinking it's due to bundle sales too.

All of the other multiplats though are surprising to me.

The software splits really shows us again that the MS did an amazing job of establishing the Xbox as the console for sports and shooters in the US. Very impressive, but possibly hindering them with every other audience now too? Or still appealing outside their base, they're just not as good at courting a broad market spectrum as Sony is?

I'm thinking what helped the Xbox One's software sales was "word of mouth" about what games people got for Christmas.

"Oh you got that game for Xmas?... Well, I will go get it too then."

 

[Boke1879]

Surprised at GTA, but maybe it had PS4 bundles due to the co-marketing?

The software splits really shows us again that the MS did an amazing job of establishing the Xbox as the console for sports and shooters in the US. Very impressive, but possibly hindering them with every other audience now too? Or still appealing outside their base, they're just not as good at courting a broad market spectrum as Sony is?

Welly dying light sold more on PS4. I think over the course of the next few months you'll see titles sell better on PS4. I predict Evolve will sell more on PS4.

 

[Conduit]

Almost every game sold more on XBone though. That's definetely not good for the PS4.

Not every. 5 for Xbone, 3 for PS4.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Hardware down is alarming. Last January was already a disaster in terms of sales, so it being further down? Unless it's entirely accounted for by the 3DS, that's worrying.

Its the down season with only one major game during the month launching, hardware is going to crash low until games worth selling consoles are out.

 

[bananafactory]

Not every. 5 for Xbone, 3 for PS4.

Yeah and the newer ones sold better on PS4, seems like there was just a lot of new holiday XB1 owners buying games they'd missed out on earlier

 

[KillerMan91]

Hardware down is alarming. Last January was already a disaster in terms of sales, so it being further down? Unless it's entirely accounted for by the 3DS, that's worrying.

-Xbox One was $499 last january now it's $349
-last gen consoles probably way down from last year
-3DS down yoy
That hw revenue drop is not exactly that weird when you consider those.

 

[blakep267]

Welly dying light sold more on PS4. I think over the course of the next few months you'll see titles sell better on PS4. I predict Evolve will sell more on PS4.

Ehh i don't know about that. I think evolve at least in the US sells more on Xbox

 

[Boke1879]

Ehh i don't know about that. I think evolve at least in the US sells more on Xbox

I'm basing this off of amazon before release so who knows. I don't think Evolve will have stellar sales to begin with though.

 

[Chobel]

It looks like Wii U sold 63K-64K in January.

I predicted 66K, so at least I have one prediction that I didn't fuck up

 

[Bgamer90]

It looks like Wii U sold 63K-64K in January.

I predicted 66K, so at least I have one prediction that I didn't fuck up

I'm thinking I went too high with everything except for the 3DS.

 

[foolishoptimist]

Welly dying light sold more on PS4. I think over the course of the next few months you'll see titles sell better on PS4. I predict Evolve will sell more on PS4.

Not sure about that. The PS4 beta was screwed up a bit. XB1 users had more time to play test.

I missed out on getting to try it I'm less likely to buy it without trying it.

 

[ethomaz]

Welcome back MS spin machine.

"Most software per system" rofl

 

[Welfare]

Welcome back MS spin machine.

"Most software per system" rofl

Attach rate is actually pretty important.

 

[ethomaz]

BTW Amazon ranking proved more than a year it flawless to predict hardware positions.

 

[Apt101]

Estimates and my guesses:

PS4 ~193k [190k]
XB1 ~153k [170k]
WiU ~_64k [40k]

Well I'm not winning, but I did far better than the last time I tried one of these.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

BTW Amazon ranking proved more than a year it flawless to predict hardware positions.

Amazon is the working man's NPD


I think my guessing this time was all over the place

 

[hepburn3d]

My guess

[3DS] 79K
[PS4] 209K
[WIU] 59K
[XB1] 199K

Based on the rough numbers

PS4 ~193k (+16k)
XB1 ~153k (+46k)
WIU ~64k (-5k)

I didn't expect the XB1 price rise, then drop, to have that much of an impact. Least I overestimated for once, mostly.

 

[NavyPharaoh]

Attach rate is actually pretty important.

Yeah over the life of a console not a month. Bragging you won an attach rate for a month is reaching, like bragging to the world u got a hot chicks number. So what? Everyone has at some point. It doesn't mean much unless u continue to have success. Let us know when you've been with her for 6 months.

 

[Welfare]

Yeah over the life of a console not a month. Bragging you won an attach rate for a month is reaching, like bragging to the world u got a hot chicks number. So what? Everyone has at some point. It doesn't mean much unless u continue to have success. Let us know when you've been with her for 6 months.

Well, one guy could get 1 hot chicks number for a month, but another could get 3 hot chick numbers in the same time frame.

 

[Aquamarine]

This is only for the few hardcore Sales-Agers who care about precision. If you don't care about precise numbers, ignore it.


I'm putting this in the NPD Predictions thread as to not draw attention from dubious sources (because, as we all know, nobody reads the lowly NPD Predictions Thread ).


Okay so we all know about Creamsugar's pie chart. Things are a little ambiguous with estimates and all that, and the numbers that are floating around in the NPD thread aren't 100% exact.

As per instructions (I'd really rather not do this, but people are being fickle and I don't have a choice) I'm forced to go more private this month with exact figures...just this month, not necessarily every month from now on.

If you made an NPD prediction in the prediction thread this month on GAF before the deadline and want to know exact / precise numbers for PS4 / XB1, send me a PM and I'll PM them to you.

I'll help out with a hint for 3DS / Vita as well.


Again, just people who made an NPD prediction before the deadline (and of course mods if they really care about exact numbers).

I had to limit it to some small group, and I'm choosing the people who cared enough to participate in our prediction thread. As a bonus for actually caring enough.

I don't care if you share it with your friends or whatever, just please don't post it on GAF or Chartz or Twitter or anywhere else public or have anyone else you share it with do that.


Please...just play along this month. It's out of my control, and I'm really sorry and frustrated about it.

I don't want any unnecessary drama, so please don't reply to this post. Just keep everything through PMs. Thanks.

 

[hepburn3d]

Really nice of you to do this Aqua. I'm ok knowing rough estimates for now.

 

[Elandyll]

The XB1 is 50$ cheaper with 2 bundled games and still it was bested in the US. Things look grim for the XB1 with The Order, Bloodborne and MLB just up ahead(I also think FF will sell much better on PS4)

You can also add Batman: Arkham Knight to that list, and it wouldn't surprise me if MGS V: TPP would hit before summer as well.

Unless there's a big upset ($299 XB1?), the road to E3 looks a bit uncomfortable for Microsoft so far.

Never say never though, they're not the kind to remain iddle too long.

This being said, I guess they might think it's only pre-season anyway...

 

[ZhugeEX]

Without further ado, here are Pachter's predictions for January 2015:

XB1: 400K
PS4: 325K

NPD Estimates (according to other thread)
PS4: ~193k
XB1: ~153k
Total: ~346k

Q&A:


Q: "LOL so Pachter gets paid to make stupid video game predictions? Where can I sign up?

So..... um.... Are we allowed to ask this now Aqua?

 

[cakely]

BTW Amazon ranking proved more than a year it flawless to predict hardware positions.

So far this generation it has 100% matched up with next generation console rankings. Amazon may only make up 6% (correct me if I'm wrong) of the NPD tracked console sales but it seems to be a nice representative sample.

 

[theprodigy]

So far this generation it has 100% matched up with next generation console rankings. Amazon may only make up 6% (correct me if I'm wrong) of the NPD tracked console sales but it seems to be a nice representative sample.

only for hardware rankings, it's not very good for predicting margins, and forget about it for software outside of comparing SKUs of the same game (see: Bayonetta 2)

 

[cakely]

only for hardware rankings, it's not very good for predicting margins, and forget about it for software outside of comparing SKUs of the same game (see: Bayonetta 2)

Yep, I said "console", meaning hardware and I said "rankings".

It's clearly not possible to use those rankings to derive the actual hardware sales numbers, but the relative rankings have so far been spot-on.

 

[TraBuch]

NPD Estimates (according to other thread)
PS4: ~193k
XB1: ~153k
Total: ~346k



So..... um.... Are we allowed to ask this now Aqua?

No, because he still doesn't get paid to make stupid video game predictions.

 

[ZhugeEX]

No, because he still doesn't get paid to make stupid video game predictions.

Isn't it something like 95% of his salary?

Spoiler

Don't worry, I was just kidding in my last post haha

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Looks like I got order right... and completely wiffed on the numbersㅠㅠ After two months of underestimating everyone I overestimate like a mad man... next month is going to be even rougher for me. See you guys next month, and thanks again to Donny, Aqua, and our retail heroes^^

 

[wachie]

This is only for the few hardcore Sales-Agers who care about precision. If you don't care about precise numbers, ignore it.


I'm putting this in the NPD Predictions thread as to not draw attention from dubious sources (because, as we all know, nobody reads the lowly NPD Predictions Thread ).


Okay so we all know about Creamsugar's pie chart. Things are a little ambiguous with estimates and all that, and the numbers that are floating around in the NPD thread aren't 100% exact.

As per instructions (I'd really rather not do this, but people are being fickle and I don't have a choice) I'm forced to go more private this month with exact figures...just this month, not necessarily every month from now on.

If you made an NPD prediction in the prediction thread this month on GAF before the deadline and want to know exact / precise numbers for PS4 / XB1, send me a PM and I'll PM them to you.

I'll help out with a hint for 3DS / Vita as well.


Again, just people who made an NPD prediction before the deadline (and of course mods if they really care about exact numbers).

I had to limit it to some small group, and I'm choosing the people who cared enough to participate in our prediction thread. As a bonus for actually caring enough.

I don't care if you share it with your friends or whatever, just please don't post it on GAF or Chartz or Twitter or anywhere else public or have anyone else you share it with do that.


Please...just play along this month. It's out of my control, and I'm really sorry and frustrated about it.

I don't want any unnecessary drama, so please don't reply to this post. Just keep everything through PMs. Thanks.

Thanks Aqua, just send it to Donny and he can run the numbers.

 

[donny2112]

Want to get away from the NPD thread for a while...

63k for Wii U:

PS4 = 190k
XB1 = 151k
Wii U = 63k

For predictions, this is what I'll be using. "Nearly 30%" means less than 30%. 29% YOY increase for Wii U is 63K. Just need 3DS ...

 

[Ty4on]

Want to get away from the NPD thread for a while...



For predictions, this is what I'll be using. "Nearly 30%" means less than 30%. 29% YOY increase for Wii U is 63K. Just need 3DS ...

You could do something like the above and tell those who have predicted to PM you for prediction results.

 

[Rymuth]

Really nice of you to do this Aqua. I'm ok knowing rough estimates for now.

Same here.

Cheers Aqua. Even though I made predictions before the deadline, I've made peace with what we have.

 

[wachie]

Thank you as always donny

 

[small44]

Hardware down is alarming. Last January was already a disaster in terms of sales, so it being further down? Unless it's entirely accounted for by the 3DS, that's worrying.

I think it's due to better then expected holiday sales for X1/PS4

 

[jvm]

63k for Wii U:

PS4 = 190k
XB1 = 151k
Wii U = 63k

[PS4] 225K off by 35K
[XB1] 175K off by 24K
[3DS] 75K off by ??K
[WIU] 50K off by 13K

So a minimum of 72K off.

 

[Welfare]

[3DS] 70K
[PS4] 237K
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 197K

Without 3DS, I'm already off by 106k.

Holy fuck not how I wanted to start the prediction year.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Without 3DS, I'm already off by 106k.

Holy fuck not how I wanted to start the prediction year.

I'm off 72k based on my late prediction for PS4/X1/WiiU

Not that my prediction counts or anything.

I do have to say I am surprised with how low PS4/X1 consoles were, then again we did just come out of a massive holiday.

 

[Welfare]

I'm off 72k based on my late prediction for PS4/X1/WiiU

Not that my prediction counts or anything.

I do have to say I am surprised with how low PS4/X1 consoles were, then again we did just come out of a massive holiday.

I expected a bit better for these console, but yeah, great holiday sales. Next month will be a lot better for them.

 

[Road]

Around 180k (by eye) New 3DS first week sales in USA.

Remember this for the February prediction. Not like we'll know how much the 3DS sold in February...

 

[theprodigy]

don't forget about Majora's Mask sales, not that we're predicting software rankings (maybe we should as a side event! lol)

 

[noobie]

are we going to get the ranking for the January prediction?