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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

So I'm guessing the buyer gets a bonus for not overbuying during the holidays, and the auditor comes by in January to see if they qualify?

Buyers generally have carried inventory or inventory turn bonus targets. Most retailer fiscal years end in January. So it's always an end of year push to clear as much inventory as possible.

And it sounds like they actually get penalized for anything that arrived between Christmas and the auditor's visit, so the end result is the buyer works to ensure the store has nothing to sell in January. That makes good business sense? =/

No. The goals are set to ensure that there isn't a lot of excess inventory that cannot be sold in some determined number of weeks, not to eliminate all inventory.

Point is that the thoughest time to sell a new game into retail is in January.

Out of curiosity, how does Microsoft's tendency to overship during the holidays then affect these bonuses? Does the auditor just understand the buyer's hands are tied, or what?

I don't have any knowledge of how the hardware side of this issue works, so, shrug.
 

Bolivar687

Banned
Yep that's the impression I have as well. It is hard for an established franchise that is heavily associated with PC to do much in the way of pushing console HW imho.

I think maybe Microsoft is trying to hearken back to when they made household names out of established PC devs like Infinity Ward, Bethesda, Irrational, and Epic. Maybe they've done some market research and the time is right for a really well done arena shooter after a Gen and a half of modern and future military games. And maybe they're positioning this game to cultivate a thriving community with all of the content creation tools.

But I really don't see it faring any better than Rage or Wolfenstein on console, at least not enough to move the hardware needle in May. Honestly, I just don't see these marketing deals as hardware movers at all. Destiny was a one time thing and holiday price cuts deserve far more credit than the games in the bundle. The jury's still out on how much of the CoD community is actually migrating. And I can't imagine Microsoft sees these deals as useful at all anymore. They've lost on nearly every deal they've done - both software split and the monthly hardware win. And as much as I'm sure the publishers love free promo, I have to think they'd rather have the Playstation logo next to their game at this point.

I also think Deus Ex will be big but again, not enough to meaningfully shift hardware.
 
Yeah, I see software doing good but nothing to move the hardware needle.

Oh, I just thought about Destiny 2 while typing out this post. Is that coming this year?
 
Buyers generally have carried inventory or inventory turn bonus targets. Most retailer fiscal years end in January. So it's always an end of year push to clear as much inventory as possible.
So, fiscal Q4 runs Nov-Jan? That seems kinda weird. To better encompass the holiday?

No. The goals are set to ensure that there isn't a lot of excess inventory that cannot be sold in some determined number of weeks, not to eliminate all inventory.

Point is that the thoughts time to sell a new game into retail is in January.
Then I guess I'm not understanding the connection. If they're not being penalized for taking delivery of new products in the middle of January, what makes them so reluctant to do so? If they take delivery on the 14th, then they should still have X-2 weeks left to move it when the auditor shows up at the end of the year, right?

I don't have any knowledge of how the hardware side of this issue works, so, shrug.
Fair enough. Thanks as always. <3
 
Yeah, I see software doing good but nothing to move the hardware needle.

Oh, I just thought about Destiny 2 while typing out this post. Is that coming this year?

It was supposed to in September. Rumor mill has it pushed back, but no official word. We will know by E3. We know Bungie was having a hard time making enough content all on their own and that Highmoon studios was brought on to help them right after Taken King Shipped. My guess? Bungie proper is working on Destiny 2 for a September 2017 release and that Highmoon and the live team will be giving us another Taken King sized expansion this fall. But, again, we won't know until E3.
 
So, fiscal Q4 runs Nov-Jan? That seems kinda weird. To better encompass the holiday?


Then I guess I'm not understanding the connection. If they're not being penalized for taking delivery of new products in the middle of January, what makes them so reluctant to do so? If they take delivery on the 14th, then they should still have X-2 weeks left to move it when the auditor shows up at the end of the year, right?

Companies set their own fiscal calendars for whatever reason. Retailers generally like to end in Jan. Who knows.

Human nature for your 2nd bit. If a year is ending and focus goes to inventory, a buyer will buy fewer units of a game at launch than they might at other times of the year.

So, you get fewer games. Because why fight that when you can just launch at a different time and avoid the whole problem?
 
Don't you dare get my hopes up like that. Don't you dare.

Its bee rumored for a while, even some leaks right here on GAF. It has to be getting damn close. I wouldn't be in the least surprised if its announced / launched in a fairly quick timeframe similar to how Bethesda handled Fallout 4
 

RexNovis

Banned

Well thats better than all the DBZ games last gen. Still I'd like to think FFVII Remake, Dragon Quest XI, Persona 5 and Street Fighter will pull those kinds of numbers WW too. I realize Persona 5 might be a long shot but, dammit, it deserves it. Also kinda curious what the platform split on that figure might be.

Honestly DBXs success proves japanese games are still relevant. So the idea that its ok for so many of them to not be coming to one of the two platforms and that these titles are all irrelevant is still pretty ridiculous.
 

Tubie

Member
I feel like many more JP IPs would do really well in the west (like dbz) if they were properly handled.
 
Its bee rumored for a while, even some leaks right here on GAF. It has to be getting damn close. I wouldn't be in the least surprised if its announced / launched in a fairly quick timeframe similar to how Bethesda handled Fallout 4

I'm hoping Capcom has Resident Evil 7 planned as a surprise launch this Fall. That stupid PvP game and another remaster don't cut it for celebrating the 20th anniversary.
 

Vena

Member
Well thats better than all the DBZ games last gen. Still I'd like to think FFVII Remake, Dragon Quest XI, Persona 5 and Street Fighter will pull those kinds of numbers WW too. I realize Persona 5 might be a long shot but, dammit, it deserves it. Also kinda curious what the platform split on that figure might be.

Honestly DBXs success proves japanese games are still relevant. So the idea that its ok for so many of them to not be coming to one of the two platforms and that these titles are all irrelevant is still pretty ridiculous.

DQXI will do more than that on just the 3DS in Japan if it doesn't come out too late.

Also one data point always makes a straight line with whatever slope you want.
 
This year is weird with the big 3rd party hardware movers because as has been mentioned nothing looking forward seems particularly massive barring the usual suspects and maybe The Division (but my goodness did MS drop the ball at $399 bundle)

Maybe 2016 is the time when exclusives are more important to shifting hardware compared to the first couple years?

Can definitely see things like UC4, Horizon, QB pulling their weight big time if they come out good.

The next Red Dead is due up before GTA6. Actually that could very well hit this year. I'd be interested to see the hardware impact of that game

Hmm Red Dead 2 this year would be absolutely gigantic.
But the way GTA V is a service with online and raking in tons of cash, I think R* are bidding their time.

I see 2017 as a good possibility, with GTA VI in 2019 towards end of this gen.
 
Hmm Red Dead 2 this year would be absolutely gigantic.
But the way GTA V is a service with online and raking in tons of cash, I think R* are bidding their time.

I see 2017 as a good possibility, with GTA VI in 2019 towards end of this gen.

Rockstar San Diego, the team currently working on the next Red Dead, haven't released a game since 2010. They helped Rockstar North with GTAV of course, but they themselves have not released a title in 5 years.

Red Dead is far into development and likely fairly close to release. It may be 2017 but 2016 wont shock me in the least.
 
The next Red Dead is due up before GTA6. Actually that could very well hit this year. I'd be interested to see the hardware impact of that game
Rockstar normally does not make "Fallout 4s", announcing a game very close to release. They take their time with announcement trailer, character trailers, cover reveal, more trailers and so on. So, as much as I would want a Red Dead or even more Bully game, they should start their campaign right now im order to get it out this fall.
But you are right, it would be nice timing to give us something new. GTA is cooling down on sales, as far as we can say cooling down. Maybe from nuclear fusion to lava.
I'm hoping Capcom has Resident Evil 7 planned as a surprise launch this Fall. That stupid PvP game and another remaster don't cut it for celebrating the 20th anniversary.
There is only one way to celebrate this properly: Dragon's Dogma 2.
 

Tubie

Member
Rockstar San Diego, the team currently working on the next Red Dead, haven't released a game since 2010. They helped Rockstar North with GTAV of course, but they themselves have not released a title in 5 years.

Red Dead is far into development and likely fairly close to release. It may be 2017 but 2016 wont shock me in the least.

Red Dead was such an incredible game, I really hope you're right.
 
Rockstar San Diego, the team currently working on the next Red Dead, haven't released a game since 2010. They helped Rockstar North with GTAV of course, but they themselves have not released a title in 5 years.

Red Dead is far into development and likely fairly close to release. It may be 2017 but 2016 wont shock me in the least.

Yeah San Diego have been quiet for too long.

My only thought is since R* like making their releases feel like cultural events, I could see a long drawn out marketing campaign similar to GTA IV/V.

Drip feed to fuel hype.

Edit: similar thoughts to Slavesnyder
 

Welfare

Member
GTAV was also delayed from Spring 2013 to September 2013, so it's not like R* were intentionally trying to hype the game for a long period of time.

Red Dead 3 being announced and released in the same year would be amazing.
 
GTAV was also delayed from Spring 2013 to September 2013, so it's not like R* were intentionally trying to hype the game for a long period of time.

Red Dead 3 being announced and released in the same year would be amazing.

Nearly every R* game from last gen was delayed. GTA V, GTA IV, Red Dead and Max Payne 3.

Stands to reason an RDR2 would be pushed if announced this year.
 

Welfare

Member
Nearly every R* game from last gen was delayed. GTA V, GTA IV, Red Dead and Max Payne 3.

Stands to reason an RDR2 would be pushed if announced this year.

While it is possible for it to be delayed out of whatever its original launch window is, I think enough time has been spent on the game already seeing as it has been 5 years.

Remember, GTA V was announced in late 2011. GTA 4 at E3 2006, RDR in very early 2009, and MP3 just a month after RDR. The lag time between game announcement and launch is shrinking. If RD3 is announced this year, I think it'll be like Fallout 4 where the game is basically done already.
 

Loris146

Member
While it is possible for it to be delayed out of whatever its original launch window is, I think enough time has been spent on the game already seeing as it has been 5 years.

Remember, GTA V was announced in late 2011. GTA 4 at E3 2006, RDR in very early 2009, and MP3 just a month after RDR. The lag time between game announcement and launch is shrinking. If RD3 is announced this year, I think it'll be like Fallout 4 where the game is basically done already.

RDR was "stealth announced" at E3 2005 with this video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLE1oRjxyJA


But yeah the first real trailer was in 2009
 

RexNovis

Banned
Digimon is going to do very well for itself for what it is. Imo of course

I hope so. It's surprisingly good. Basically bought it out of obligation to support JRPGs and ended up getting sucked in. Seriously one of the best JRPGs I've played in a long while.

I hope Gravity Rush does well too albeit it's very limited at retail (Amazon exclusive) so I'd imagine it's going to make most of its sales via PSN.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Digimon is going to do very well for itself for what it is. Imo of course

I believe Bamco said they're expecting to sell about 110k in the West, which will match the performance in Japan, which I think (and hope) is doable.

Well thats better than all the DBZ games last gen. Still I'd like to think FFVII Remake, Dragon Quest XI, Persona 5 and Street Fighter will pull those kinds of numbers WW too. I realize Persona 5 might be a long shot but, dammit, it deserves it. Also kinda curious what the platform split on that figure might be.

Honestly DBXs success proves japanese games are still relevant. So the idea that its ok for so many of them to not be coming to one of the two platforms and that these titles are all irrelevant is still pretty ridiculous.

Nobody said all Japanese games are irrelevant. I can't believe you're still hung up on this and I can't believe that you're still misquoting me completely.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Nobody said all Japanese games are irrelevant. I can't believe you're still hung up on this and I can't believe that you're still misquoting me completely.

? You're right nobody said that and I never said anyone did. Re read what I said

So the idea that its ok for so many of them to not be coming to one of the two platforms and that these titles are all irrelevant is still pretty ridiculous.

These titles refers to the aforementioned "many of them not coming to one of the two platforms." Last I checked you said "the relevant ones are coming to XB1" thereby implying all of the games that aren't are somehow irrelevant which is exactly what I said above. So no I'm not misquoting you. Unless you want to tell me that's not what you said.

While I do still think that your statement was absurd, the only reason I brought it up is because the post I was responding to was in reference to that conversation (about DBX being more relevant so on and so forth). So of course I'm going to respond to it in that context.
 
I believe Bamco said they're expecting to sell about 110k in the West, which will match the performance in Japan, which I think (and hope) is doable.

110k for its entire Western release not just NA? They should hit that no problem. I think the game has / will have a surprising level of support

I hope so. It's surprisingly good. Basically bought it out of obligation to support JRPGs and ended up getting sucked in. Seriously one of the best JRPGs I've played in a long while.

I hope Gravity Rush does well too albeit it's very limited at retail (Amazon exclusive) so I'd imagine it's going to make most of its sales via PSN.

I know the feeling, I've been buying basically every niche JRPG that comes West just to support localizations. Haven't gotten a chance to start Digimon yet. I'm back logged like crazy
 

Vena

Member
FAR too early in February to say anything definitely, but I would like to thank all gamers with great taste for making Valkyria Chronicles Remastered, Digimon, and Gravity Rush on the front page for February^^

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-02/videogames#1

Gravity Rush is exclusive to Amazon for retail. That's not a relevant or representative ranking. If anything, its steady decline over hourly within a handful of days since release is indicative of the opposite of what you're trying to infer from these placements. Its also so early in the month that this is effectively statistically insignificant in a month of many more days than 5 and volume of big hitters is in the middle of the month. (Valkyria looks good though.) I really don't think Cyberslueth is all that hot either.

The more troubling fact is that SFV is tanked on these rankings.
 
Gravity Rush is exclusive to Amazon for retail. That's not a relevant or representative ranking. If anything, its steady decline over hourly within a handful of days since release is indicative of the opposite of what you're trying to infer from these placements. Its also so early in the month that this is effectively statistically insignificant in a month of many more days than 5 and volume of big hitters is in the middle of the month. (Valkyria looks good though.) I really don't think Cyberslueth is all that hot either.

The more troubling fact is that SFV is tanked on these rankings.
Granted, there are preorders for stuff like Doom and Amiibo clogging the first page. I think they (GRR, Digimon and Valkyria) are all doing fine for what they are.

It's a very very long game. At least 40 hours with a ton of side content.
That is good to hear. I figured content would be lighter. I still think $39.99 is the price for me though.
 

Vena

Member
Granted, there are preorders for stuff like Doom and Amiibo clogging the first page. I think they (GRR, Digimon and Valkyria) are all doing fine for what they are.

I take those out, as well as the cards and such always in top spots.

I am simply looking at it from a placement perspective. Digimon is low for having just come out (and having a "low score" the month before, meaning low pre-orders) but I don't think that's all in all bad when the overall goal of the title is just 110k in all of the West.

But GRR is exclusive to that digital storefront, wasn't exactly lighting the charts on fire the month previous, and, while high for this month so far, has been dropping from the hourly fast meaning their high sustained demand on its *only* retail channel within only a handful of days since release. So either, and this is highly unlikely, everyone bought a bunch of copies the first few days of February or the actual volume representation of that top spot is not actually all that high. It is, relative to all other titles, over-represented by having 100% of its retail share on the channel while for most all other titles its... 10%? Maybe more maybe less? GRR in January, all 100% of it at retail pre-order, was under ~10% of M&L, a title I don't think did well at all?

That why I said its statistically insignificant so early.

And anyway, the more interesting point is that SFV is doing badly. And its not only isolated to the NA/US market. Its non-existent in Japan as well.
Mortal Kombat and Smash killed SF. /s
 

Javin98

Banned
The next Red Dead is due up before GTA6. Actually that could very well hit this year. I'd be interested to see the hardware impact of that game
I never played Red Dead Redemption, but don't you get my hopes up for a sequel coming out this year. Until we get confirmation, I'm gonna take this as wishful thinking. :p
 
I never played Red Dead Redemption, but don't you get my hopes up for a sequel coming out this year. Until we get confirmation, I'm gonna take this as wishful thinking. :p

Oh I have no knowledge on the game at all other than whats been leaked here on GAF and that Rockstar love the IP and hold it in high value. It's just the logical progression of the studio. You have a studio of over 200 people in San Diego who haven't launched a game in 5 years. If RD3 doesn't release in 2016 its at least definitely being formally announced.
 
I take those out, as well as the cards and such always in top spots.

I am simply looking at it from a placement perspective. Digimon is low for having just come out (and having a "low score" the month before, meaning low pre-orders) but I don't think that's all in all bad when the overall goal of the title is just 110k in all of the West.

But GRR is exclusive to that digital storefront, wasn't exactly lighting the charts on fire the month previous, and, while high for this month so far, has been dropping from the hourly fast meaning their high sustained demand on its *only* retail channel within only a handful of days since release. So either, and this is highly unlikely, everyone bought a bunch of copies the first few days of February or the actual volume representation of that top spot is not actually all that high. It is, relative to all other titles, over-represented by having 100% of its retail share on the channel while for most all other titles its... 10%? Maybe more maybe less? GRR in January, all 100% of it at retail pre-order, was under ~10% of M&L, a title I don't think did well at all?

That why I said its statistically insignificant so early.

And anyway, the more interesting point is that SFV is doing badly. And its not only isolated to the NA/US market. Its non-existent in Japan as well.
Mortal Kombat and Smash killed SF. /s
It is a remastered Vita game that was originally a digital exclusive release. Considering what is above it and the expectations one should have for a title like this, as I said, I think it is fine. Nothing notably well but fine.

Rainbow Six Seige didn't light up any charts in Japan or US and it sold pretty well. The same for Just Cause 3. I'm not saying the same will apply to SFV but I am pointing out it is a possibility.
 

Welfare

Member
Don't use Amazon for software anything. Amazon has a very tiny market share of the US market and GR is a Vita game on the PS4. It's not going to do any type of good.
 

donny2112

Member
Don't use Amazon for software anything. Amazon has a very tiny market share of the US market and GR is a Vita game on the PS4. It's not going to do any type of good.

And any/all preorders have been topping the Amazon software charts since they started matching Best Buy's GCU 20% discount, albeit only for new releases. That's why preorders are all the rage on the Amazon software charts.
 
Eh, I wouldn't go as far as saying "it won't do any type of good". It can. I do agree the Amazon stuff is pointless though. The best we can do is wait for NPD leaks and say everything bombed because of unrealistic expectations. :p
 

Jigorath

Banned
The more troubling fact is that SFV is tanked on these rankings.

I don't think using current Amazon charts is a good indicator for Street Fighter V. A lot of people would have already preordered the game much earlier to get into the beta, which by all accounts have had a huge turnout.

And yeah GR2 isn't going to sell much of anything in retail. Sony knew that which is why they kept the physical copy Amazon exclusive (except for poor Canada).

These titles refers to the aforementioned "many of them not coming to one of the two platforms." Last I checked you said "the relevant ones are coming to XB1" thereby implying all of the games that aren't are somehow irrelevant which is exactly what I said above. So no I'm not misquoting you. Unless you want to tell me that's not what you said.

Err, I said "most" not "all" in my first post on the subject.

At the end of the day, we just disagree is all. Continuing to go in circles on the discussion is pointless.
 
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