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[Vena]

I don't think using current Amazon charts is a good indicator for Street Fighter V. A lot of people would have already preordered the game much earlier to get into the beta, which by all accounts have had a huge turnout.

And yeah GR2 isn't going to sell much of anything in retail. Sony knew that which is why they kept the physical copy Amazon exclusive (except for poor Canada).

I don't think GRR is going to sell much of anything in any form. I don't expect to undersell itself ala Tearaway... well, one would hope not as there's a sequel in the works.

As for SFV, only reason I find it notable is because its totally absent from Japan's trackers as well (and the bottom of the barrel isn't exactly... lively). But you do raise a good point on the Beta but the idea of a "huge turnout" doesn't really gel with statements like:

Decent numbers. Fighting game fans coming out of the wood work more with each beta/news update. I think it'll be the gradual burn that gives it legs.

The title in general just seems like its moseying onwards towards release, and it feels like it has no wind in its sails. It will sell to the fans but... feels like that's it.

 

[Sterok]

I was under the impression that Street Fighter was fairly popular in the states, even if Mortal Kombat is bigger right now. It'll probably do fine, at least in the long run. Though since we're on the subject, how IV open?

 

[Vena]

I was under the impression that Street Fighter was fairly popular in the states, even if Mortal Kombat is bigger right now. It'll probably do fine, at least in the long run. Though since we're on the subject, how IV open?

Well I'd sooner ponder if MK IX and X haven't simply eaten SF's cake in the general extended (non-series fans) audience. The lack of story mode at launch probably isn't doing it any favors in the comparison either.

As for SFIV, (if correct) Wired says 849k.

 

[Shizza]

[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 150K

 

[GribbleGrunger]

I just don't think there's any way back for MS. Amazon charts:

#12 $350 PS4 Black Ops 3 Bundle

#34 $300 Gears Bundle + Assassins Creed Syndicate + Forza Horizon 2 + $30 Amazon Gift card.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

I just don't think there's any way back for MS. Amazon charts:

#12 $350 PS4 Black Ops 3 Bundle

#34 $300 Gears Bundle + Assassins Creed Syndicate + Forza Horizon 2 + $30 Amazon Gift card.

Price alone won't be enough for Xbox1 to win a month... this will be a pretty rough pre season unless Quantum Break pulls some heads, but Dark Souls 3 and Uncharted 4 will make that kind of unlikely...

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

I just don't think there's any way back for MS. Amazon charts:

#12 $350 PS4 Black Ops 3 Bundle

#34 $300 Gears Bundle + Assassins Creed Syndicate + Forza Horizon 2 + $30 Amazon Gift card.

Its still incredibly early in the year to be making statements like this.

lets see what happens when the division releases.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Its still incredibly early in the year to be making statements like this.

lets see what happens when the division releases.

Again, Amazon not being the best judge, but The Division is looking to be leaning pretty Playstation in its pre orders. And the Xbox1 bundle has already been stated as a pretty soft mover by our retail guys. It could change closer to launch, but it does not look like a Destiny situation for MS.

 

[wachie]

[PS4] 189,000
[XB1] 143,000
[3DS] 63,000
[WIU] 33,000

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I just don't think there's any way back for MS. Amazon charts:

#12 $350 PS4 Black Ops 3 Bundle

#34 $300 Gears Bundle + Assassins Creed Syndicate + Forza Horizon 2 + $30 Amazon Gift card.

With how the last two holiday seasons went, I think Microsoft inadvertently conditioned consumers to wait for the next holiday season or the next big deal. Last year, the XB1 had some good months because of deals such as trading in a PS3/360 for $175 off or the Best Buy $499 TV + XB1 deal. I'm surprised that two free games, one of which is recent, plus a $30 gift card aren't moving the needle.

 

[EdReedFan20]

I know it's the January NPDs and all, but is it just me or is this thread moving slowly? I mean, heck, the NPD's post this Thursday after all. These threads are typically much, much larger this close to an NPD release.

 

[mili2110]

omg, this thread is bombing like rise of the tomb raider on xbone

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

I know it's the January NPDs and all, but is it just me or is this thread moving slowly? I mean, heck, the NPD's post this Thursday after all. These threads are typically much, much larger this close to an NPD release.

The results are already kind of known... barring any kind of crazy curve ball, all four are down by a lot over last month and PS4 beat Xbox1. People jump in Sales Gaf threads when they have a horse in the race they want to see do well (or see do poor, depending on the case) and not too many horses this month... next month will be a little better with SFV fans/doom sayers and March with the Division, but the next very active month won't be until April; a lot of horses of all shape and color that month^^

 

[donny2112]

I know it's the January NPDs and all, but is it just me or is this thread moving slowly? I mean, heck, the NPD's post this Thursday after all. These threads are typically much, much larger this close to an NPD release.

This is normal for January. Lull after everything's blown out for the Christmas season.

Page # on at Saturday before NPD for January prediction threads
2015 - Page 3 (same as this year's)
2014 - Page 2
2013 - Page 1
2012 - Page 1

 

[N.Domixis]

Its still incredibly early in the year to be making statements like this.

lets see what happens when the division releases.

We'll see it sell a lot of ps4s and will win the month once again.

 

[Maniel]

[3DS] 70k
[PS4] 190k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 150k

 

[Vena]

I should probably make a prediction for once:

[3DS] 80K
[PS4] 160k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 150k

 

[Jack The Nipper]

[PS4] 160k
[WIU] 38k
[XB1] 130K

 

[Apt101]

[3DS] 45k
[PS4] 185k
[WIU] 30k
[XB1] 115k

 

[RedAssedApe]

The more troubling fact is that SFV is tanked on these rankings.

everyone pre-ordering at Gamestop to get hot ryu alt

 

[Abdiel]

Its still incredibly early in the year to be making statements like this.

lets see what happens when the division releases.

Ehhhhhh...

Division preorders have been growing gradually as more info actually came out, and the beta was a resounding success for the game, with a lot of positive buzz (at least half of my current gaming dept. staff participated and now is super hyped for the release), that has led to in turn more preorders.

This has not favored the XB1 version with any kind of margin at all? And as I said, the bundle is kind of a joke. Like... Lol. It's really not doing well at all. I think my district has under 30 preorders for the bundle across more than 10 stores. I don't see that changing much.

Quantum Break needs to show more too, I think really get people talking about the game, because it seems like only the direhard fans of Remedy are really hyped for the game right now. I'm not an Xbox fan, but my understanding is that their previous work was really well received and QB shows really solid production values at least. We're approaching closer to that season and it seems to be flying too low under the radar for the mainstream. It's not like it's going to be a Japanese release on the system, right? (Hurr Hurr... Sorry.)

 

[Bgamer90]

I know it's the January NPDs and all, but is it just me or is this thread moving slowly? I mean, heck, the NPD's post this Thursday after all. These threads are typically much, much larger this close to an NPD release.

It's for Janaury. Really not much to talk about during a month in which every console will more than likely sell less than 300K.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

It's for Janaury. Really not much to talk about during a month in which every console will more than likely sell less than 300K.

Add on zero major releases for the month and tons of tumbleweed is to be expected.

 

[Bgamer90]

Add on zero major releases for the month and tons of tumbleweed is to be expected.

Yep. Super boring.

 

[Primethius]

I'm not really expecting SFV to do massive numbers, no where close to what SFIV opened to. I expect it to be down or pull similar numbers to the PS3 version in most territories (mainly thinking of Japan here).

But it'll end up selling a lot in the long run, given that Capcom's finally switched over to the single-release format.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I'm not really expecting SFV to do massive numbers, no where close to what SFIV opened to. I expect it to be down or pull similar numbers to the PS3 version in most territories (mainly thinking of Japan here).

But it'll end up selling a lot in the long run, given that Capcom's finally switched over to the single-release format.

What do you consider major numbers? I think it will explode right of the gate. 600k plus NPD, 1 million in first week worldwide and 2 million worlwide in the first month.

 

[Primethius]

What do you consider major numbers? I think it will explode right of the gate. 600k plus NPD, 1 million in first week worldwide and 2 million worlwide in the first month.

Hmm... for NPD, I'd predict much closer to 500k, if not a bit lower. I expect it to do about 60-70k in Japan in it's first week. I think it'll still hit 1 million worldwide quite easily and quite quickly but that'll be largely due to other markets which will be pulling a larger weight given an increased FGC presence since the release of SFIV.

I expect it to sell a lot in the long run and comfortably meet the target Capcom has for it, just not an explosive start that matches the initial numbers SFIV put out.

Edit: I should also clarify, that barring some sort of crazy screw up with SFV, I expect it to outsell SFIV lifetime (all versions combined).

 

[Welfare]

Street Fighter IV did 446K on the 360 and 403K on the PS3 back in February 2009. I'm expecting SFV to do somewhere between 600K and 700K on the PS4.

 

[anothertech]

[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 100k
[3DS] 50k
[WIU] 30k

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

What do you consider major numbers? I think it will explode right of the gate. 600k plus NPD, 1 million in first week worldwide and 2 million worlwide in the first month.

Hmm... for NPD, I'd predict much closer to 500k, if not a bit lower. I expect it to do about 60-70k in Japan in it's first week. I think it'll still hit 1 million worldwide quite easily and quite quickly but that'll be largely due to other markets which will be pulling a larger weight given an increased FGC presence since the release of SFIV.

I expect it to sell a lot in the long run and comfortably meet the target Capcom has for it, just not an explosive start that matches the initial numbers SFIV put out.

Edit: I should also clarify, that barring some sort of crazy screw up with SFV, I expect it to outsell SFIV lifetime (all versions combined).

Street Fighter IV did 446K on the 360 and 403K on the PS3 back in February 2009. I'm expecting SFV to do somewhere between 600K and 700K on the PS4.

Wow, you guys are expecting a lot higher than myself. I was thinking about the same as Bloodborne; 375K NPD opening, a million in less than a month world wide, 2 million in less than 6 months, but with a long tail of promotion with sales and 2+ years of updates for around 5 million total life time sales. Maybe I need to be more optimistic?^^

 

[Asd202]

[3DS] 75k
[PS4] 150k
[WIU] 25k
[XB1] 120k

 

[Jarod McChicken]

700K for SFV NPD debut is a damn optimistic vision of the fighting game market

Capcom's target is to ship 2 million SFV copies for March 31, I think it should be possible with a 300K debut in the US if the PC community is on par with PS4. I also think SFV should have a better digital share than other games. It's the fighting game you want to keep in your console for the entire generation, with the upcoming steady flow of characters.

 

[mejin]

Its still incredibly early in the year to be making statements like this.

lets see what happens when the division releases.

what year is it? 2014?

 

[Asd202]

700K for SFV NPD debut is a damn optimistic vision of the fighting game market

Capcom's target is to ship 2 million SFV copies for March 31, I think it should be possible with a 300K debut in the US if the PC community is on par with PS4. I also think SFV should have a better digital share than other games. It's the fighting game you want to keep in your console for the entire generation, with the upcoming steady flow of characters.

Yeah Capcom with SFV is in for the long game.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I say 480,000 for Street Fighter V on February NPD. [retail]

>600,000 including digital, but we will never know.


...Maybe i'm The only Guy here interested to Far Cry Primal, but any prediction?

Far Cry 4 Sold over 670,000 in November NPD 2014... I expect Far Cry Primal to Sell ~300,000.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

what year is it? 2014?

You misinterpert what im saying.

Its a big leap from the obvious "The PS4 is going to be sales leader for the generation"

to

"There is no way back for Xbox" based on 1 month and 1 week of Amazon sales charts.

We dont know how successful either console is going to be this year. Things are on a tragetory but nothing is written in stone.

 

[biglittleps]

You misinterpert what im saying.

Its a big leap from the obvious "The PS4 is going to be sales leader for the generation"

to

"There is no way back for Xbox" based on 1 month and 1 week of Amazon sales charts.

We dont know how successful either console is going to be this year. Things are on a tragetory but nothing is written in stone.

At least PS4 going to have great first half than XB1 for sure.

 

[gtj1092]

Crazy capcom isn't launching SFV on 3DS after shipping 1 million copies of SFIV on 3DS launch. If anything they should delay it and do a simultaneous launch on NX/Ps4.

How long will Japanese companies continue supporting Ps4 to their detriment.


[3DS] 65k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 160k

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Crazy capcom isn't launching SFV on 3DS after shipping 1 million copies of SFIV on 3DS launch. If anything they should delay it and do a simultaneous launch on NX/Ps4.

How long will Japanese companies continue supporting Ps4 to their detriment.


[3DS] 65k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 160k

You would be better off complaining about Arcade edition or Ultra SFIV.

In what universe could SFV run on 3ds (or vita for that matter) without fundamentally changing the entire look and gameplay?

Unless we are talking something akin to the commedore 64 port of SF2, its a ridiculous notion even ignoring Sonys involvement in the games development.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Yep, I think SFV will be leggy in the long run. Of course, the lack of a huge opening will have the "BOMBA" crowd running wild.

How long will Japanese companies continue supporting Ps4 to their detriment.

When it actually starts becoming a detriment. Their are Japanese companies fine with their performance on PS4.

 

[Elandyll]

Its still incredibly early in the year to be making statements like this.

lets see what happens when the division releases.

Just curious here, what do you think The Division will do for the XB1 in terms of sales?

I mean, the bundle is a $399 one, and it isn't even a LE console with it.
The only thing it'll achieve in the end (which is pretty common for basic bundles this gen it seems) is depress the sales of the title on thee platform and give it a lower NPD for the console with the actual marketing deal (as titles in bundles are not included).

Also, it looks like the pre-orders went gangbuster on PS4 last month for the Division Beta on PS4... (top selling title on Amazon, even ahead of Twilight Princess in the last update).

Short of a permanent price drop (not sure how limited the current promo is on Amazon. Also, curious rthing, the price listed is $301, but when I click on the "promo bundle" which has the $30 card, and AC/ FH2 offer it send me to a $349 priced console...) that Sony wouldn't match, I think it's going to be a rough year for the XB1 imo, US included.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Just curious here, what do you think The Division will do for the XB1 in terms of sales?

I mean, the bundle is a $399 one, and it isn't even a LE console with it.
The only thing it'll achieve in the end (which is pretty common for basic bundles this gen it seems) is depress the sales of the title on thee platform and give it a lower NPD for the console with the actual marketing deal (as titles in bundles are not included).

Also, it looks like the pre-orders went gangbuster on PS4 last month for the Beta on PS4... (top selling title on Amazon, even ahead of Twilight Princess in the last update).

Short of a permanent price drop (not sure how limited the current promo is on Amazon. Also, curious rthing, the price listed is $301, but when I click on the "promo bundle" which has the $30 card, and AC/ FH2 offer it send me to a $349 priced console...) that Sony wouldn't match, I think it's going to be a rough year for the XB1 imo, US included.

I dont think it will be Microsofts destiny by any means, but if Microsoft do a few trade in promotions at the same time, there should be a titanfall-esqe uptick.

I dont even think it will beat PS4s month, but WOW and possibly YOY will be up.

As for the rest of the year, its a bit presumptious to make predictions simply because Microsoft has conditioned its base to buy at very specfic times of the year. Even ignoring the preseason/hoilday season nonsense, there is a far more significant spike in sales at different times of the year in comparsion to the PS4, which sells pretty consistently all year round.

I do agree that Microsoft is going to have a hell of a job keeping up worldwide this year, but I just dont think the US or UK are set in stone yet. I feel the potential is still there for them to have a big year even if they dont touch PS4 overall.

 

[Mpl90]

I don't think GRR is going to sell much of anything in any form. I don't expect to undersell itself ala Tearaway... well, one would hope not as there's a sequel in the works.

As for SFV, only reason I find it notable is because its totally absent from Japan's trackers as well (and the bottom of the barrel isn't exactly... lively). But you do raise a good point on the Beta but the idea of a "huge turnout" doesn't really gel with statements like:



The title in general just seems like its moseying onwards towards release, and it feels like it has no wind in its sails. It will sell to the fans but... feels like that's it.

One of the things I noticed in the past year on Amazon.com is that releases tend to rise in rankings much more as the release approaches. There can be titles that, while around top 100 at, like, 10 days before the release, can improve their placement a lot. Also, they can sell well despite earlier low positions in charts. I'd wait a bit more before making more-or-less definitive judgements on the game's performance.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I expect SFV to sell okay on NPD over 500k.
But i also expect it to have a higher DD rate than normal.
The same goes for Japan and rest of world IMO .

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I say 480,000 for Street Fighter V on February NPD. [retail]

>600,000 including digital, but we will never know.


...Maybe i'm The only Guy here interested to Far Cry Primal, but any prediction?

Far Cry 4 Sold over 670,000 in November NPD 2014... I expect Far Cry Primal to Sell ~300,000.

We won't know the digital split, but I don't think Sony or Capcom will have any issue with releasing the sales numbers.

 

[3rdbass]

Just curious here, what do you think The Division will do for the XB1 in terms of sales?

I mean, the bundle is a $399 one, and it isn't even a LE console with it.
The only thing it'll achieve in the end (which is pretty common for basic bundles this gen it seems) is depress the sales of the title on thee platform and give it a lower NPD for the console with the actual marketing deal (as titles in bundles are not included).

Also, it looks like the pre-orders went gangbuster on PS4 last month for the Division Beta on PS4... (top selling title on Amazon, even ahead of Twilight Princess in the last update).

Short of a permanent price drop (not sure how limited the current promo is on I Amazon. Also, curious rthing, the price listed is $301, but when I click on the "promo bundle" which has the $30 card, and AC/ FH2 offer it send me to a $349 priced console...) that Sony wouldn't match, I think it's going to be a rough year for the XB1 imo, US included.

Yeah, not sure why people keep saying Xbox one at $300 when that is clearly for non Amazon sellers. The deal is only good when sold directly from Amazon. The price from Amazon is $349.

 

[Primethius]

Wow, you guys are expecting a lot higher than myself. I was thinking about the same as Bloodborne; 375K NPD opening, a million in less than a month world wide, 2 million in less than 6 months, but with a long tail of promotion with sales and 2+ years of updates for around 5 million total life time sales. Maybe I need to be more optimistic?^^

I would actually peg my numbers around 400k as well and bump that up higher with digital. But I do think SFV will sell more then SFIV in the ROTW except Japan and perhaps some parts of EU. The FGC has grown quite a bit since the release of SFIV, especially in the middle-east. And I wouldn't be surprised that the ROTW steps in to give SFV a comparable if not bigger opening then SFIV.

If not that, I still expect better lifetime sales.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

We won't know the digital split, but I don't think Sony or Capcom will have any issue with releasing the sales numbers.

We should know the total shipments by end of March probabily, but i don't know if thwy will say the shipments per markets... or maybe yes? No idea honestly lol.

 

[noshten]

So any word on who is doing the PC port, SFV is the type of title that can do best on the PC if the port is not broken upon release.

 

[Bgamer90]

I do agree that Microsoft is going to have a hell of a job keeping up worldwide this year, but I just dont think the US or UK are set in stone yet. I feel the potential is still there for them to have a big year even if they dont touch PS4 overall.

Yeah, 2016 Xbox One NPD should at least be similar to how the system did in 2015 (if not better). Last gen is completely dead now and the U.S. sales split/gap shows that both the PS4 and Xbox One are relevant consoles here.

This gen in America is pretty much a modern version of Genesis vs. SNES. One console leading during first half of gen (PS4/Genesis) but the other one not behind to the point in which there's a definitive-"console that all of my (American) friends have".

_____________

I expect SFV to sell okay on NPD over 500k.
But i also expect it to have a higher DD rate than normal.
The same goes for Japan and rest of world IMO .

I'm also expecting 500K for Street Fighter V.