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Liabe Brave
Member
I agree, though I think it could go a ittle higher even. Anything under 4.5m would be mildly surprising. Under 4m would be shocking (because it's nigh impossible).
Moor-Angol
Banned
you can go sleep, sweet dreams
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Obviously he is expecting PS4 to have a better year than 2016!
Hopefully it doesn't start the PS4 crash in JP
Skullwaker
Member
Any expectations for Crash's performance? Not sure what to think of it.
Install base is the enabler for overall market size (which is in free fall). Exactly what limits or expands it is rather meaningless after the fact (unless you are insane endgame Sega pushing the company's whole well being on a hopeless loss leader).
I allowed myself to adapt the statement slightly.
4.5+ million units LTD for Switch hardware would be nice because it would be ahead of the 3DS in the same accumulated period back in 2011 (4.32 million 3DS units) but the problem is how gradual the increase in shipments are becoming.
For the next quarter the 3DS in 2011 would have shipped 6.68 million hardware units LTD which accounts for the price cut so the Switch would have to keep catching up.
What I mean by that is it's more likely Nintendo had higher manufacturing production and inventory levels for 3DS already compared to the Switch seeing as Nintendo were able to ship 15.03 million 3DS hardware units by the end of CY2011.
Note: At the first quarter earnings for 2011 they had a 16 million unit forecast for 3DS hardware, at the third quarter earnings for 2011 they had a 14 million unit forecast for 3DS hardware when they sold 15 million.
But... By the end of that fiscal year ending March 2012, they ended up overestimating their forecast and had it set to 18.5 million 3DS hardware units when they only shipped 17.13 million units.
Edit: So they shipped 2.1 million 3DS units for the fourth quarter of FY3/2012 but missed their forecast by a large amount because they most likely had overshipped units again. It seems that the Americas and Other were hugely underperforming again during that time.
For the next quarter the 3DS in 2011 would have shipped 6.68 million hardware units LTD which accounts for the price cut so the Switch would have to keep catching up.
What I mean by that is it's more likely Nintendo had higher manufacturing production and inventory levels for 3DS already compared to the Switch seeing as Nintendo were able to ship 15.03 million 3DS hardware units by the end of CY2011.
Note: At the first quarter earnings for 2011 they had a 16 million unit forecast for 3DS hardware, at the third quarter earnings for 2011 they had a 14 million unit forecast for 3DS hardware when they sold 15 million.
But... By the end of that fiscal year ending March 2012, they ended up overestimating their forecast and had it set to 18.5 million 3DS hardware units when they only shipped 17.13 million units.
Edit: So they shipped 2.1 million 3DS units for the fourth quarter of FY3/2012 but missed their forecast by a large amount because they most likely had overshipped units again. It seems that the Americas and Other were hugely underperforming again during that time.
I didn't see it on Amazon's ranking, just looking up through #60, but COMG has it pegged at 11 points, so somewhere between GT Sport's combined 84 points and Evil Within 2's 10 points.
Just a guess, but maybe 35,000? I mean Western titles already don't do spectular, and while Crash is better-suited to Japan than say, GTA, it's still a remake and all that. So if the high bar for this sort of thing is GTA at ~350k or RS Siege at ~200k, it's not going to exceed that sort of performance obviously.
To look at a similar example, let's say the Ratchet & Clank remake from last year, that opened to ~27k in August. So, if we assume that the PS4 has a bit more momentum now and Crash a bit more hype, then somewhere in the region of 30k~35k seems fair.
Because it's a mascot ? Eh, I don't know if it can still work like that.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Yeah, I don't know that Nintendo was planning to manufacture the Switch like they would with a traditional handheld, but it's looking like it's going to follow the sales patterns of a handheld rather than a console (meaning that each kid will get their own switch for Christmas rather than sharing one system. Stuff like that.)
It's unprecedented for a (technically) handheld to sell this well at this price point. Had the DS launched at $299.99 it would've been the next Virtual Boy. Even after accounting for inflation, Nintendo DS launch price today would be $190. Nintendo's found a nice sweet spot selling what is technically a handheld at a console price while maintaining the sales volume you'd expect of handheld systems.
It seems Sony Forwardworks mobile games don't generate that much views on YouTube. I know that they're mainly focused on Japan but that's where the market is dominant for Smartphone games.
Their official trailer for Sora to Umi no Aida which was revealed yesterday only has 4.2k views on YouTube.
Their official Twitter account for the game has 2400 followers.
Forwardworks had set up pre-registration rewards to incentivise people to sign up and there are rewards going up to 300,000 registrations.
They'll probably hit their mark, the problem at the moment is that they've only shown the story mode and not really any gameplay in motion.
Edit: Here are their multimedia plans and PC release plans.
Their official trailer for Sora to Umi no Aida which was revealed yesterday only has 4.2k views on YouTube.
Their official Twitter account for the game has 2400 followers.
Forwardworks had set up pre-registration rewards to incentivise people to sign up and there are rewards going up to 300,000 registrations.
They'll probably hit their mark, the problem at the moment is that they've only shown the story mode and not really any gameplay in motion.
Edit: Here are their multimedia plans and PC release plans.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Quarter 2 numbers come in at 4:00 PM JST
So those first
It's already tomorrow, Nintendo's numbers will come first by about 5 or 6 hours difference.
thestopsign
Member
There were a couple phases. The DS had a very strong holiday launch in 2004. It slowed down into 2005 and fell behind the PSP in weekly sales. Nintendogs effectively ended the PSP outselling the DS on a weekly basis in April/May 2005 and it increased the DS baseline substantially. The DS had an explosive and unprecedented end of the year in 2005 with Mario Kart DS, Animal Crossing, Brain Age 2, and more all releasing. This was followed by continued shortages through the first part of 2006 until the DS Lite released at the start of March. Then craziness ensued and the DS Lite was sold out for the rest of the year while selling enormous volume thanks to the "casual games" and big releases like New Super Mario Bros and Pokemon.
I had feeling that even if those 2 is launch as mobile game new title, i cant see them doing well at all. Sony IP rarely had strong pull.
I would rather see Sony pushing for more new mobile IP with waifus or at least, try to look for new popular franchise and use that IP for their new game.
I had hard time seeing Crash did more than 100k here. And that is optimistic view if u ask me.
I've found that, in general, mobile games don't get a lot of views or social hype leading up to release - they just generate interest on the platform itself on or after release. The people who play these games don't look for news in advance, nor is there much brand loyalty.
Meh, just what I noticed when SE, Sega, others announce mobile stuff.
Exception being Nintendo mobile projects or existing big IP.
The bolded was what I was going to point out considering the Pokémon Go announcement trailer and when Super Mario Run was revealed.
Edit: Pokémon Go announcement trailer has 43 million views, I forget how well it did initially.
Of course other Pokémon mobile games that already appeared before Pokémon Go were not comparable in anyway.
darkstar0155
Member
OK this sounds spot on. I def remember the psp was giving it a run for its money at first. And I remembered the ds lite brain age and nintendogs being the things which really made it a sensation (mario kart and nsmb I always felt sell to whoever has the system already not so much pushes hardware, except nsmb was the first 2d mario in a long time so that I'm sure helped)
Wait what?
Mario Kart DS and NSMB are in the top 3 selling first party titles for Nintendo DS Worldwide
1st) New Super Mario Bros: 30.8 million units
3rd) Mario Kart DS: 23.6 million units
darkstar0155
Member
I stand by my statement and of course it's only my theory
MKDS wasn't the primary reason the ds sold like crazy. It did that because of the brain age games, nintedogs, pokemon, DQ, MH and other more blue ocean style games.
Mk7 sold to a huge amount of people that already bought one or bought one in the future. Sorta like mk8 on the wii u. Same scenario with nsmb although I think that one was more of a hardware/mindshare pusher because it was the first major 2d mario game in awhile.
So a system seller isn't a system seller
Is that what you're trying to explain here?
Skullwaker
Member
Mario Kart is definitely one of the biggest system sellers Nintendo has, if not the biggest.
thestopsign
Member
You have it wrong. Mario Kart and 2D Mario games were primary system sellers. Brain Age, Nintendogs, and other blue ocean games were secondary system sellers. The DS had both of them at the same time, hence the explosion in sales. It hit multiple demographics at once.
darkstar0155
Member
I'm saying it sells a lot of software.. to people who would be picking up the system anyways.
Such as a person who really picked up a switch for zelda. But since they already had one they decided to buy MK8d too (of course this example applies more in America where zelda is more popular than in japan, but it's a illustrative point only).
darkstar0155
Member
In the case of the ds I didn't see it that way. I remember the ds exploding in popularity due to nintendogs and the brain age games and the revision of the ds.
I'm not saying that MK and NSMB didn't help move systems, I'm saying it's not what converted the system from being a good handheld success to the monster sales machine it became.
Like, the explosion of the blue ocean market wasn't because of MK ans nsmb. It was because of nintendogs and brain age.
darkstar0155
Member
Splatoon us what gave the wii u some actual life. Mk8d wasn't even close.
Skullwaker
Member
Huh? Mario Kart 8 had a much bigger effect worldwide than Splatoon did. Splatoon had a bigger effect in Japan though.
darkstar0155
Member
Hey it's late and Im half asleep. But I think it's got some truth.
Job listing for character and monster motion design work on a PS4 action game / numbered title in a popular / super-famous / large-scale series at a major company in Shinjuku: https://www.fellow-s.co.jp/job/actor_company/view/3385
Company is not listed, but Square Enix is a 15 mins walk from Shinjuku Station, so it could be them. Don't know what it could be though. Dragon Quest Heroes and Dissidia Final Fantasy are both produced by Koei Tecmo, Final Fantasy VII Remake is pretty open about what it is on job postings, and Kingdom Hearts III is being developed in Osaka.
Company is not listed, but Square Enix is a 15 mins walk from Shinjuku Station, so it could be them. Don't know what it could be though. Dragon Quest Heroes and Dissidia Final Fantasy are both produced by Koei Tecmo, Final Fantasy VII Remake is pretty open about what it is on job postings, and Kingdom Hearts III is being developed in Osaka.
Hades Hotgun
Banned
I hear what yer sayin, but I don't think it holds water.
I got all my friends to pick up the DS just on the value of getting single card play from Mario Kart. That game was a system seller even for people who didn't buy it. For a while it was THE reason to own the system.
The Last One
Member
Final Fantasy XVI, here we go!
darkstar0155
Member
I got ya and I can understand that. I'm mostly in non gamer crowds and I remember tons of non gamers who I never would have expected with a handheld playing brain age or nintedogs. I just feel those games took it from the core handheld gamer market and made it the sales phenomenon it became.
kuroneko0509
Member
671k splatoon 2, 102k switch from famitsu early report
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201707/26138427.html
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201707/26138427.html
Dark Cloud
Member
How are those numbers? Did we win?
The Last One
Member
I don't think it's low, it's just not the 800k-900k some poeple were expecting.
Edit: And I think the same will happen to DQ XI, lower numbers than the expectations. I hope I'm wrong.
Would give Splatoon 2 over a 50% attach ratio to the total Switch base in Japan. I'd think Splatoon 2 would do decently digitally.
Dark Cloud
Member
Sounds pretty amazing. Idk what's so low about that. I'm sure that's better than Splatoon 1.