DQ's release is a split because Square Enix likely thinks they can catch a bit of the global pie. Any other generation, 3DS would've been the only release platform, done in one. But now? PS4 might not be lighting up the charts in Japan with only 5 million sold, but having a PS4 version means being able to tap into that 63.3 million worldwide userbase. There's a reason SQ announced a five-language localization for the game.
And the relative strength of the PS4 DQ11 sales in light of that platform's smaller userbase in Japan is probably giving them even more hope.
For all the fact that Switch users are very hungry for any release, it still only has 1.2 million in sales in Japan. The fact that Square Enix is working on a Switch version is actually quite surprising, though I'm glad they are.
Yeah, I'm mostly talking about the supposed period when it was just PS4. We have that recent interview, which seems conflicted about that story, but it itself also points to it earlier in the interview, in line with the earlier reports.
That would be an extremely odd decision that SE walked back with the 3DS version, if it indeed was the decision. It would also have been a decision made in ~2013 and had to have been expecting a better result for PS4 in Japan.
Moreover, if it were the decision, I think you get this picture:
I really can't see worldwide sales as a justification. The only argument I can see is they creatively really wanted to make an HD game. PS4 is by far the least successful platform to get a new release mainline DQ. If it were 3DS only it would have been out a year ago or earlier, the budget would have been 1/3, and IMO it would have sold more, being closer to peak 3DS. Aka it likely would have made much much more money. Western sales would have to be very high to make up for that.
That is, I take Horii at his word as wanting to make the game for a stationary console and SE as willing to believe that DQ could be a success on PS4 and letting that happen. I don't know what the power dynamic is there, but I assume Horii's desires have to also line up with business decisions. So I think if 3DS version was indeed a later addition, SE was being very bullish on PS4 in 2013 or so.
DQ Japan was "saved" by the 3DS version, in that those allowed it to achieve DQ-like sales. PS4 version performed very well for the PS4. It outperformed most early estimates. It almost sold as much as the 3DS version. The thing is, I don't think that result could have been much higher and that is both praise and indicative of the necessity of the 3DS version to achieve 2.5-4 million total sales lifetime in Japan.
The problem remains, as D.Lo points out, that this was a very costly way to maintain sales at DQ-like levels, when that could also have been achieved on 3DS alone at an earlier date and that highlights just how odd wrt business the presumed initial decision was.
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Aside:
I do think this decision could pay off in the west. The problem is, if DQXI just mimics the sales of other Japanese games doing well lately, then it hasn't paid off: DQ already hit those sorts of numbers with both VIII and IX. Here I think multiplatform could help, if it comes over that way. Say DQ XI sells P5 good on PS4 in the west. That'd be very modest growth over previous entries. Say it also sells a couple 100k on Switch, that adds to that growth pile. Say it sells about 100k on 3DS too. Some more to the growth pile.
Couple that with a Switch port of the PS4 version in Japan for another, let's say, <500k and you get more out of the decision to start on PS4.
(Note: IX suggests a hypothetical earlier 3DS release could've also done ~1 million. I'm guessing a) Switch will still be too small to support that and b) 3DS will be past its prime in 2018. I think in 2018 it clearly goes PS4>Switch>3DS for western sales).
Maybe instead DQXI PS4 blows DQVIII completely out of the water? But that would be it doing better than the current trend of successful Japanese games that we are talking about. Perhaps that tide rises it higher than the Personas of the world?
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This and MHW, another decision made in presumably 2013 or so, highlight that going into PS4 there were some bullish decisions on the part of some Japanese developers.
I don't expect the same will pan out to be true of 2016 for Switch when we get to 2019 or so. I think this sort of behavior is simply not something Nintendo or the domestic Japanese market inspires.
I do think Switch will get a healthy portion of sensible decisions in its favor.
But in any case, my whole point in bringing this up is we're in a time where Switch users are with bated breath wrt Japanese support for their system, with mixed signals including tepid remarks from major 3DS partners like Capcom, and a time when PS4 is seeing these strange unlooked for "holy grails" in terms of support. They're at different parts in their life--we weren't going to know the quality of Switch support for a while no matter how PS4 is doing--but the juxtaposition of these two states makes the Switch support situation look worse than it is.
Right now people are hearing about faith in PS4 in 2013 and hearing noncommittal comments about Switch.
So it was a multifaceted post: this little side-tangent about the difference in how Nintendo and Sony can attract support and a meta-commentary about why this current situation feeds into Switch anxiety, despite the fact that it really shouldn't.