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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Thirty7ven

Banned
Yes it is.





There is no ‘they’. I watched the entire 1 hour clip when it went live.

There was only this guy, who’s being paid £2k per month by a lobbying firm on behalf of Microsoft.


Cut the shit.

Trash sites like eurogamer reported it as if the CMA was being grilled by multiple MPs.

Media shills keep building narratives for MS.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
I got sent a clip of Jez and Rand on a podcast. The narrative was

"Microsoft will leave the UK... For COD."

D0guoQuWkAADBli.jpg


I don't dose Hopium and I don't snort Copium. But these clowns are really out there giving out free samples trying to get people hooked. Influence drug dealers selling nonsense to keep their viewership up.
This clip? I can't believe an actual journalist for Windows Central would say this

 

Pelta88

Member
This clip? I can't believe an actual journalist for Windows Central would say this



Yeah this is the clip...

The broader issue here is how would Microsoft whether taking COD from the UK gamers? Think about it. As harsh as this may sound XBOX is microscopic in presence in the EU and barely an afterthought in the UK. Don't check the sales, check the submissions Microsoft made to regulators about their presence.

To remove COD from the UK would be the death nail for XBOX. No exaggeration, or embellishment. Finished. The PR alone would make 2013's debacle looks like a minor discrepancy.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
Yeah this is the clip...

The broader issue here is how would Microsoft whether taking COD from the UK gamers? Think about it. As harsh as this may sound XBOX is microscopic in presence in the EU and barely an afterthought in the UK. Don't check the sales, check the submissions Microsoft made to regulators about their presence.

To remove COD from the UK would be the death nail for XBOX. No exaggeration, or embellishment. Finished. The PR alone would make 2013's debacle looks like a minor discrepancy.

The thing is… the SEC submitted contract between MS and ABK specifically states it’s conditional on CMA approving, among three others.

People shouldn’t mistake MS’s postering for anything other than doing the utmost to protect themselves and prepare to fight ABK over the 3 billion clause. They have to exhaust all their avenues until it’s due date.

If MS acted like the deal was off right now, or acted in anyway that suggested the deal was off, ABK could claim the 3B today with just cause.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
The worst part about this is that MS would put themselves in huge problem.
US and EU would eat their arse with tons of anti trust regulations.

Also good luck convincing any regulator or court that you have no incentive to foreclose when you are willing to leave a market the size of the UK.
 

Topher

Gold Member
This clip? I can't believe an actual journalist for Windows Central would say this



Probably the most hilarious part of that was where he started talking about how embarrassing it would be for the UK if Microsoft up and left. Of course, entirely ignoring the massive PR nightmare Microsoft would have on its hands looking like a petulant child throwing a temper tantrum and taking their toys home. But we are talking about the same British citizen who has called being British "embarrassing" due to his government not bending over to an American mega-corporation.

List of Xbox studios that are located in UK

Rare, Playground games, Ninja theory,

UK Azure data centers:

cFA8ZRa.png


Soon to be confiscated by the UK government, it would seem

Trying Not To Laugh Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter
 

ToadMan

Member
His choice of words makes it obvious:

These are the words of an anxious, triggered and insecure individual.

“… explained how the deal would still be a go even with the papers they signed saying they require the UK’a approval to close the deal?”

Looks to me like someone asking a question.

To which, you had no answer or useful comment, so you decided to mock the poster.

Insecurities are evident here yes - good luck with controlling them.
 

ToadMan

Member
This clip? I can't believe an actual journalist for Windows Central would say this



This sounds like someone stating very clearly why not only should this deal be blocked, but why there is probably a decent argument to be made for breaking up MS - something MS already flirted with - on the grounds of national security.

Is that what he is trying to tell us? That MS is such a powerful corporation now, people through their national governments no longer have the right to enforce laws?

Literally telling us MS is holding western governments hostage… if ever there was a reason to break up mega corps that is it.
 

Elios83

Member
What's the TLDR these days. Is it happening?
Nope.
Contract is expiring in July.
They failed to get two major approvals (CMA and FTC) required by the contract and there's absolutely no legal way to change that by the time the contract expires.

That means there are just two options:
1) They decide it's over and Activision gets the 3 billions.
2)They try to make an other contract to extend the current one and go into a legal battle with CMA and FTC but given the high risks of failure involved and the fact they would be stucked for an other 1-2 years, to get approval from shareholders Activision will ask Microsoft a much higher breakup fee and a higher $/share price to go on.

Other options are crazy fan fictions like Microsoft leaving the UK, Microsoft going ahead without the approvals, Microsoft using illegal ways to try to bribe governments and reverse decisions in time for the July expiring date. This stuff says a lot about who is even suggesting it.
 
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Ar¢tos

Member
It does seem to be the case.

In my opinion, in ten years, ABK won't be the same kind of accelerant that it is today for Microsoft's Xbox plans - Microsoft needs heavy hitters on Game Pass today, they can't wait 10 years. It's first party seems largely unable to deliver the mega hit games it needs to drive Game Pass at the speed they wants, hence these kinds of acquisitions. COD on Game Pass, especially when its USD$70.00 on PS5? That's a licence to print money via monthly subs. I suspect if this deal goes under, Microsoft will abandon trying to own COD altogether and look at other ways to get their heavy hitters sooner. I don't really know what that might look like - no one saw ABK being bought. In terms of Microsoft pulling some kind of business-legal 4D chess move to get around the CMA, I don't think it's likely. their deal with Activision names the CMA directly. That's in writing, so, I'm not sure how easy that is to work around - at glance I'd think they can't work around it. But the idea of Microsoft as a whole pulling out of the UK in a big way seems pretty laughable to me - I can't imagine the numbers working out at all.

I've said it before, but in my honest opinion, I think Microsoft win's their CMA appeal, and the CMA magically approves the deal at the 11th hour in a re-review. Not because Microsoft found some fatal flaw in the CMA's original review, but because behind the scenes the current UK Government - whose PM is vocally anti-regulation - fucking leans on the CMA's members to get them to change their minds because the Government wants big corporate money after Brexit and the CMA is fucking that up. CMA gets to look like a tough regulator, Microsoft gets its new toy, and the UK Government gets to keep big business happy. I'm happy to be wrong, of course.
The CAT only looks at procedures, not conclusions, and then if there's anything wrong with procedures, they send it back to the CMA. If the CMA changes their mind when the EC reached the same conclusion (but accepted remedies) because of government pressure, they will look corrupt, since they are supposed to be completely independent, and will send the message that any blocked merger, in the future, can be unblocked by making media noise and threats to the government, making the government itself look (even more) weak.
The UK already get MS business and ATK business without the merger and the merger won't be a massive benefit for the UK economy.
So all this is theatrical drama.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Nope.
Contract is expiring in July.
They failed to get two major approvals (CMA and FTC) required by the contract and there's absolutely no legal way to change that by the time the contract expires.

That means there are just two options:
1) They decide it's over and Activision gets the 3 billions.
2)They try to make an other contract to extend the current one but given the high risks of failure involved and the fact they would be stucked for an other 1-2 years, to get approval from shareholders Activision will ask Microsoft a much higher breakup fee and a higher $/share price to go on.

Other options are crazy fan fictions like Microsoft leaving the UK, Microsoft going ahead without the approvals, Microsoft using illegal ways to try to bribe governments and reverse decisions in time for the July expiring date. This stuff says a lot about who is even suggesting it.
If they make another contract Activision will ask for more money and it will need to go through all regulators again because it's a new deal
In this case some regulators can block again after seeing that Microsoft was ready to make another deal and leave the UK
I don't think EU would be happy with that
 

Elios83

Member
If they make another contract Activision will ask for more money and it will need to go through all regulators again because it's a new deal
In this case some regulators can block again after seeing that Microsoft was ready to make another deal and leave the UK
I don't think EU would be happy with that

No I don't think that's the case because it wouldn't be a new acquisition proposal but basically them extending the current contract to try to fight CMA and FTC.
Certainly to take that route Activision will make some crazy requests to Microsoft.

But a new acquisition attempt wouldn't even be considered by the CMA for 10 years.
That's why they need to appeal now anyway even if they withdraw in a month or two.
By the way Microsoft has to make a request to appeal to CAT by May 22nd.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
No I don't think that's the case because it wouldn't be a new acquisition proposal but basically them extending the current contract to try to fight CMA and FTC.
Certainly to take that route Activision will make some crazy requests to Microsoft.

But a new acquisition attempt wouldn't even be considered by the CMA for 10 years.
That's why they need to appeal now anyway even if they withdraw in a month or two.
By the way Microsoft has to make a request to appeal to CAT by May 22nd.
Activision won't extend if they don't get more money
 

Elios83

Member
Activision won't extend if they don't get more money

That's for sure. They will ask 105$/share at least and an astronomic breakup fee worth of the Bethesda acquisition.
A company can't propose to its shareholders a deal that will make them overall incapacitated to take business decisions for 3 years in a highly competitive and dynamic market with a low chance of success without asking for significant financial protection and compensation for the risks.
 
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Pelta88

Member
The thing is… the SEC submitted contract between MS and ABK specifically states it’s conditional on CMA approving, among three others.

People shouldn’t mistake MS’s postering for anything other than doing the utmost to protect themselves and prepare to fight ABK over the 3 billion clause. They have to exhaust all their avenues until it’s due date.

If MS acted like the deal was off right now, or acted in anyway that suggested the deal was off, ABK could claim the 3B today with just cause.

Facts.

Side note, when is the actual payment to ATVI due? I think that specific data point got lost in the sauce.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Nope.
Contract is expiring in July.
They failed to get two major approvals (CMA and FTC) required by the contract and there's absolutely no legal way to change that by the time the contract expires.

That means there are just two options:
1) They decide it's over and Activision gets the 3 billions.
2)They try to make an other contract to extend the current one and go into a legal battle with CMA and FTC but given the high risks of failure involved and the fact they would be stucked for an other 1-2 years, to get approval from shareholders Activision will ask Microsoft a much higher breakup fee and a higher $/share price to go on.

Other options are crazy fan fictions like Microsoft leaving the UK, Microsoft going ahead without the approvals, Microsoft using illegal ways to try to bribe governments and reverse decisions in time for the July expiring date. This stuff says a lot about who is even suggesting it.
They have 2 approved, ftc doesnt approve deals. They only sued to block.

With CMA as a big hurdle, they can try an appeal and see if that works. This is their last attempt, as there is no guarentee they will get this much approval in the future.
 

Elios83

Member
thought this would have been submitted by now

I don't know, I've not read any article or legal leak about the appeal request having being formally submitted to CAT already.

They have 2 approved, ftc doesnt approve deals. They only sued to block.

With CMA as a big hurdle, they can try an appeal and see if that works. This is their last attempt, as there is no guarentee they will get this much approval in the future.
They still have to fight them in court, eventually win, hope they don't appeal...it's a long process.
 

Elios83

Member
That or wait for 10 years.

Considering there is 67b on the line, both companies will try their chance right now.
Or execute on a more feasible business strategy choosing other targets more wisely and focusing around traditional deals to get contents.
The 67billions contract won't exist anymore in a couple of months.
With considerably changed market conditions for both we'll see if they'll agree on new terms to go ahead.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
thought this would have been submitted by now
Maybe that is the real reason why they have paid for the very best UK legal representation.

The lack of appeal so far - which will be available when registered - could be because they are still trying to find any angle to appeal, and when Microsoft are eventually told there was no angle to appeal, ATVI can't accuse them of failing to make "best efforts" to have the acquisition succeed because the lack of appeal option has been advised by the very best at working an angle.
 
Maybe that is the real reason why they have paid for the very best UK legal representation.

The lack of appeal so far - which will be available when registered - could be because they are still trying to find any angle to appeal, and when Microsoft are eventually told there was no angle to appeal, ATVI can't accuse them of failing to make "best efforts" to have the acquisition succeed because the lack of appeal option has been advised by the very best at working an angle.

I might have missed some things but was there any positive PR since the CMA block?

Something along the lines that they are confident it will still happen.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I might have missed some things but was there any positive PR since the CMA block?

Something along the lines that they are confident it will still happen.
The day the acquisition was blocked, Brad Smith released a statement that they will appeal. I think Phil said the same after a few days passed. But that's pretty much it / all I remember.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
I might have missed some things but was there any positive PR since the CMA block?

Something along the lines that they are confident it will still happen.
Bobby said they are going to appeal
Even if Microsoft tries everything they will appeal anyway, the 3 billions are lost unless Activision abandon the deal before july
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
By the way Microsoft has to make a request to appeal to CAT by May 22nd.
I was literally thinking about it yesterday that time would be running out for Microsoft to submit the appeal - and they still haven't. It's interesting and something to keep an eye on.

And if/when they do file an appeal, Jez and Florian would definitely let us know because the CMA would be doomed that day lol.
 
The day the acquisition was blocked, Brad Smith released a statement that they will appeal. I think Phil said the same after a few days passed. But that's pretty much it / all I remember.

From that day I haven't seen any indication of confidence from them. Just Phils depressing interview and Brad going nuclear but that's about it.

And if/when they do file an appeal, Jez and Florian would definitely let us know because the CMA would be doomed that day lol.

That's also true. The minute it gets filed it will be shared all over the place.

Maybe they wanted the results from the other regulators to help them with the appeal. If true then it should be soon.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
From that day I haven't seen any indication of confidence from them. Just Phils depressing interview and Brad going nuclear but that's about it.
Very true. I did not even notice the same level of positivity or enthusiasm when the EC approved the acquisition.

Phil Spencer did not even tweet about it. He just retweeted Brad Smith's tweet about EC's approval, and that was it from him.
 

Elios83

Member
I was literally thinking about it yesterday that time would be running out for Microsoft to submit the appeal - and they still haven't. It's interesting and something to keep an eye on.

And if/when they do file an appeal, Jez and Florian would definitely let us know because the CMA would be doomed that day lol.

Next week is the deadline to submit the appeal request to CAT. I guess they're trying to study the best angle to make the request with their legals.
This will also give them more time until July to keep their options open.
Activision can't back out before July or they'll lose the 3b. If Microsoft gives up it doesn't make much difference if they do it now or later I believe. They still have to pay 3 billions.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Very true. I did not even notice the same level of positivity or enthusiasm when the EC approved the acquisition.

Phil Spencer did not even tweet about it. He just retweeted Brad Smith's tweet about EC's approval, and that was it from him.
They stopped all that campaign of COD coming to this and that and even the attacks and memes against the CMA and UK by Lulu stopped the moment they blocked
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
From IDAS on 29 april
But some of the statements from MS/ABK these days remind me of the ones from Nvidia/ARM in very late January 2022, when they said that they were expecting the acquisition to be approved (the FTC blocked it in December 2021). Then, 10 days later (early February 2022) they announced that the deal was abandoned (and in that case the outside date was September 2022, 2 years since the announcement).

You can even start to see the first sings of doubt with the statements from Booby Kotick yesterday or on Wednesday, as well as the report from Bloomberg about MS/Phil Spencer.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
They are struggling to find evidence of irrationality without becoming irrational themselves.

The 'because we want to it should happen' attitude hasn't really helped and the likes of Bradders have been very quiet of late having been smacked down

The thing is that they didn’t counter CMA’s arguments on Cloud. They just proposed remedies which implies they agreed with the arguments.

So now they have to argue the arguments, by labeling them irrational? I might me mistaken here but you can’t argue the decision only the arguments? Asking for clarification on both both.

When you cant attack the arguments(process) you attack the entity, which is what MS did and is doing through lobbying.

It’s honestly the most exciting part of this
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Man city lose their final 3 league games, arsenal take the title in the last minute of the season.

Inter scrap to a 1-0 win in a final fraught with controversy.

City beat man united to the FA cup, winning on penalties to take a consolation cup for the season.

Lord Pannick falls on his face and Man City get hit with points deductions and transfer bans going into next season.

Happy Kamala Harris GIF by The Democrats
I’m sorry to do this bros. GHG GHG feynoob feynoob







hbAyivs.jpg
 
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