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[Jigsaah]

CMA will only modify their findings based on the appeal, you are correct. There isn't anything black and white here. The deal is on until Microsoft gives up the effort or they exhaust all legal avenues in the UK. So it ain't over no matter what anyone says. This can drag on for two or more years if Microsoft wins appeal.

Thanks, much better answer.

 

[Thirty7ven]

The so called professionals you are listening to are idiots. Hoeg especially.

Hoeg and others are proof that when you are a fanboy, your views get completely distorted.

It’s all about what you stand to gain, for some it’s money and that blinds almost anyone to the truth, and for others it’s this very very fascinating psychological consequence of out of control brand attachment. Like Hoeg for example, he will say things like he likes MS’s strategy of play anywhere even though that’s really not the case but because he wants to have a moral compass he will use that defense to pretend what’s good for him it’s good for others, when the fact is he just wants to see Xbox get a big ass W, because that makes him feel good. It’s so weird.

 

[baphomet]

Warning: for people that say ringfencing and changing the deal isnt possible please ignore this post and don't quote as that will just waste people's time and space in the thread. I am just going by what lawyers and financial analysts on TV have said and I know I am not going to change your mind and you aren't going to change mine because I believe the professionals.

To answer your question. The deal can be changed. Hoeg said they can change the terms of the deal to not include the UK. Then MS would have to sell activision UK assets or spin them off as a seperate company in the UK. If that happens the UK cannot sue MS and Activision for NOT merging in their country.

Its not like UK gamers would be left out though. Even if that happens it just means MS would have to pay this seperate company to get CoD and other ABK games on Game Pass in the UK. Which i am sure they would do unless they really want to make the CMA look bad.

It would be wise to stop taking advice from dipshits like Hoeg.

 

[I Master l]

What if Microsoft choses to close the deal and pay CMA a fine?
The fine will be less than the $3 Billion break-up fee so its worth it.

 

[Torrent of Pork]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

Idiocy doesn’t go away just because you own a law firm

 

[LordCBH]

What if Microsoft choses to close the deal and pay CMA a fine?
The fine will be less than the $3 Billion break-up fee so its worth it.

They can’t. The agreement SPECIFICALLY states they need CMA approval.

 

[reinking]

CMA will only modify their findings based on the appeal, you are correct. There isn't anything black and white here. The deal is on until Microsoft gives up the effort or they exhaust all legal avenues in the UK. So it ain't over no matter what anyone says. This can drag on for two or more years if Microsoft wins appeal.

You probably know more than I do. What happens on July 18th when the deal is currently scheduled to expire? Is Activision under legal obligation to extend and allow Microsoft to continue appeals?

 

[I Master l]

They can’t. The agreement SPECIFICALLY states they need CMA approval.

I am kinda curious where were they when Disney bought Fox? That was equivalent to Microsoft buying Sony

 

[LordCBH]

I am kinda curious where were they when Disney bought Fox? That was equivalent to Microsoft buying Sony

The more and more time passes, the more and more I hate that Disney bought fox.

 

[b6a6es]

I am kinda curious where were they when Disney bought Fox? That was equivalent to Microsoft buying Sony

The more and more time passes, the more and more I hate that Disney bought fox.

People often forget how harshly the concessions were for disney to buy fox

1- they had to divest the entire Fox broadcasting TV

2- had to pay Comcast an enormous payout (with interest!) for about 10+ years or something since they co-owned hulu

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I am kinda curious where were they when Disney bought Fox? That was equivalent to Microsoft buying Sony

Disney buying Fox should never have been approved.

Nor T-Mobile buying Sprint.

People often forget how harshly the concessions were for disney to buy fox

1- they had to divest the entire Fox broadcasting TV

2- had to pay Comcast an enormous payout (with interest!) for about 10+ years or something since they co-owned hulu

Comcast shouldn't ever have been allowed to buy NBC Universal in the first place. And NBC should never have been allowed to merge with Universal.

And so on and so forth. The amount of consolidation and concentration of media control and power in the US is beyond absurd. Disney alone controls something like 40% of American media. The rest is now controlled by Comcast (NBC Universal), Warner Bros. Discovery (a complicated mess of spinoffs and mergers), Paramount Global (formerly the split and then re-merged CBS-Viacom), and News Corporation (which no longer controls 20th Century Fox, that's now owned by Disney).

 

[baphomet]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

You familiar with how completely fucking wrong he's been about this entire deal?

Owning a law firm doesn't not make someone a dipshit.

If someone's occupation meant they were an expert we'd be in here believing Pachter.

 

[IllegalLemon]

Got a picture of Phil Spender singing to the cma

Replace the face with that of Phil and you're golden!!!

 

[mansoor1980]

jim ryan focused as ever before , dude is a legend





based on the interview i am sure sony is looking at a big japanese publisher or two for purchase

 

[MasterCornholio]

jim ryan focused as ever before , dude is a legend





based on the interview i am sure sony is looking at a big japanese publisher or two for purchase

I don't think this really belongs here.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

Is he a barrister or UK Law expert? Maybe his law firm had any first-hand experience with mergers 70bn in size?

Once again, both gynecologist and dentist are doctors that specialized in treating cavities. But their areas of expertise are not exactly the same.

 

[mrmustard]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

If he doesn't serve the cause, hell yeah!

 

[Bernardougf]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

Lawyers doing lobby for money / political reasons and law bending gymnastics to make their case ??? No!! Say it ain't so !!

 

[Banjo64]

The linked article does not point to MP being paid by lobbying on behalf of MS.

"In April, Afolami also launched a report for the group suggesting that a “lack of democratic oversight of regulators is holding back UK productivity and economic growth”, with the author listed as an economist at WPI Strategy, with editorial control from MPs on the group. The report was funded by one of WPI’s clients, Pension Insurance Corporation, which is on the advisory council of the group and contributed a foreword."

While Microsoft is listed as a client of WPI, it seems that MS worked with them to publish a "White Paper" on "Regional inequalities in health and social care: the power of digital technology to close the gap"

New Microsoft report argues for importance of digital to improving health outcomes — WPI Strategy

www.wpi-strategy.com

Are you special lad?

WPI is a specialist corporate advisory and communications agency that helps you navigate today’s fast-changing, complex regulatory and political environments.​

Which corporation would be paying WPI to funnel money to a UK MP to ask the CMA questions about ABK/MS?

Go on, I’ll allow you to draw the line.

 

[ToadMan]

Man sees himself as some sort of videogame forum batman LMAO

"Fear is a tool […] They think I’m hiding in the shadows. But I am the shadows.”​

"I was indifferent before, but at that moment I realized that I wanted to become what they hate most."

"I am Vengeance, I am Goalus"​

 

[feynoob]

Wait, are we so deep in our fanboy humors that we're calling Rick Hoeg, a man that literally owns his own law firm specializing in M&A, an idiot that doesn't know what he's talking about?

Is that what we're doing now?

Just because you are expert in 1 field doesn't mean you are not stupid.

Guy is stupid, because he doesn't have the knowledge of this deal. All he knows is what we know. He has no access to the black bar info.

 

[ToadMan]

I am kinda curious where were they when Disney bought Fox? That was equivalent to Microsoft buying Sony

I don’t know the timing for sure but at a guess the UK was either still part of the EU or unwinding from it so the CMA didn’t have jurisdiction.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Just because you are expert in 1 field doesn't mean you are not stupid.

Guy is stupid, because he doesn't have the knowledge of this deal. All he knows is what we know. He has no access to the black bar info.

One thing people tend to forget is that this deal is transpiring across multiple different jurisdictions. Even US laws vary from state to state. Even a good US lawyer is a poor UK barrister and good UK barrister is kinda useless in China. That's why all those TV law experts are basically white noise w/o proper substance.

 

[feynoob]

One thing people tend to forget is that this deal is transpiring across multiple different jurisdictions. Even US laws vary from state to state. Even a good US lawyer is a poor UK barrister and good UK barrister is kinda useless in China. That's way all those TV law experts are basically whiter noise w/o proper substance.

The only reason MS got the approval in EU is because they have little presence there. Same with China. But that is not the same for UK and US, as they have a huge presence in those markets.

So the scrutiny there would be huge.

 

[Heisenberg007]

What in the world is going on with the Xbox reporting audience? It's not just guys like Senju talking about "working around the UK", it's also people like Grubb and the Xcast crew.

Why do they somehow believe that they can simply "work around" the UK? It is stipulated in the contract Activision signed than the CMA must approve the deal. For this imagined scenario to even be a reality, Activision must come to a new agreement with Microsoft rather than taking the $3B. Even assuming that they agree to a new contract, it's still a legal nightmare to believe you can "work around the UK" - in effect, you can't simply say you are going to not offer Activision products in the UK, the rammifications in terms of legal issues go much broader than that as it would be in violation of UK securities laws.

Because nobody cares. The gaming media and journalists are (1) completely ignorant and (2) interested more about their views, clicks, and $$ instead of spreading actual news and correct information.

Based on the above, they have only two options now:

1. Reveal the truth, i.e., the deal is essentially dead and the statistical probability is less than 5% based on past records.
2. Sell hopium so people keep listening to them and stay engaged and hopeful that the deal is still on. As long as the deal is still "on" people are interested in what's next, they will keep listening to their podcasts, giving them views, clicks, and $$.

 

[ToadMan]

What if Microsoft choses to close the deal and pay CMA a fine?
The fine will be less than the $3 Billion break-up fee so its worth it.

Yeah what if?

Here’s a clue - MS would be liable for 5% of their worldwide revenues.

I’ll let you work out how much that comes to.

In addition Microsoft Ltd and Activision Blizzard Ltd are UK companies. You may research the significance of that for yourself.

 

[Bernoulli]

Check out those bunch of videos on YouTube with lawyers talking about this merger. Most think it will pass. Generally all think the ftc will easily lose in court and the cma will reverse it decision because of pressure from the PM. Nothing is a slam dunk. Not win nor a block. All up still for grabs.

most of those only report news that suits their audience
for example you see foesspatonts when he tweets any thing about something unrelated to ABK he gets no likes, but the moment he posts some hopium its liked and shared by them

same for houg law dude, he magically ignored the CMA block and when he does videos about other topics no one cares, but when provides them with copium they all come

i tried this and it actually works, i tweeted on an account with no followers under a CMA news about lina khan meeting nonsense saying that this good news and the deal will go through and i got a crazy amount of likes, if you say the opposite they report you and attack you

 

[feynoob]

most of those only report news that suits their audience
for example you see foesspatonts when he tweets any thing about something unrelated to ABK he gets no likes, but the moment he posts some hopium its liked and shared by them

same for houg law dude, he magically ignored the CMA block and when he does videos about other topics no one cares, but when provides them with copium they all come

i tried this and it actually works, i tweeted on an account with no followers under a CMA news about lina khan meeting nonsense saying that this good news and the deal will go through and i got a crazy amount of likes, if you say the opposite they report you and attack you

This deal is huge in gaming industry, so you get few idiots thinking their words matter.

I am one of those idiots who thought this deal was slam dunk due to MS/Xbox console share, while cloud was small.

 

[Bernardougf]

Check out those bunch of videos on YouTube with lawyers talking about this merger. Most think it will pass. Generally all think the ftc will easily lose in court and the cma will reverse it decision because of pressure from the PM. Nothing is a slam dunk. Not win nor a block. All up still for grabs.

"Hello this is xboxlover and philspencerapologyst youtube channels, we would like to hire you to do a piece saying why the MS and ABK merger will go through"

Lawyer 1 "My hour is 1.000 dollars"

"Done! And you can only say reasons why it will go through ok ?"

Lawyer 1 " sure you paying me Ill say OJ Simpson is innocent if you freaking want me to"


........

Little advice.. lawyers are not holders of the truth, they are defenders of the hired point of view/case and interpreters of the part of the law that is convenient to their case. They are their to win the case not to spread the gospel truth

 

[Bernoulli]

let's see some mental gymnastics

here what CMA did before matters



and here it doesn't matter anymore because the case is unique

 

[Astray]

What exactly are this FOSSPatents guy's credentials? Is he a lawyer?

Very strange how he speaks so authoritatively on basically everything even when he gets thoroughly embarrassed.

 

[Banjo64]

What in the world is going on with the Xbox reporting audience? It's not just guys like Senju talking about "working around the UK", it's also people like Grubb and the Xcast crew.

Why do they somehow believe that they can simply "work around" the UK? It is stipulated in the contract Activision signed than the CMA must approve the deal. For this imagined scenario to even be a reality, Activision must come to a new agreement with Microsoft rather than taking the $3B. Even assuming that they agree to a new contract, it's still a legal nightmare to believe you can "work around the UK" - in effect, you can't simply say you are going to not offer Activision products in the UK, the rammifications in terms of legal issues go much broader than that as it would be in violation of UK securities laws.

Exactly. Why even bother getting the deal ratified anywhere if you can just circumvent regulation that easily? The people saying it are simply stupid.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Thinking back to the CMA committee (steer) meeting, it is maybe worth considering Cardell's use of Google being pro-active to come and resolve issues/concerns and roll out the (UK CMA discussed) solution worldwide was more than just an anecdote.

As much as we all see anti-trust threats from Google's powerful position, on balance the CMA and other regulators might still view them as a better company in regards of being advocates of Open Source, side loading and being less aggressive in the vertical merging anti-trust risks like this case, and the way Stadia did try to compete and pay its own way.

So they might feel google represent the best of a bad bunch to keep Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta in check, and the CMA mentioning their positive work with Google might have been them directly signalling to Microsoft the natural overlapping competition Google represent to them if they don't get on the same page and rollback their 90's MO.

The old enemy of my enemy dance.

 

[feynoob]

What exactly are this FOSSPatents guy's credentials? Is he a lawyer?

Very strange how he speaks so authoritatively on basically everything even when he gets thoroughly embarrassed.

A guy who is clouded by a clout and he thinks he is special.

 

[feynoob]

Exactly. Why even bother getting the deal ratified anywhere if you can just circumvent regulation that easily? The people saying it are simply stupid.

The important question is why go for regulation, if you can simply ignore someone like CMA?

If it was that easy, arm deal would have happened. And guess who was the most vocal against that deal?

 

[Ar¢tos]

Check out those bunch of videos on YouTube with lawyers talking about this merger. Most think it will pass. Generally all think the ftc will easily lose in court and the cma will reverse it decision because of pressure from the PM. Nothing is a slam dunk. Not win nor a block. All up still for grabs.

The FTC court conclusion or CAT sending it back to CMA matters very little now. The deal is beyond dead, it's a putrid decomposing corpse full of maggots now.
The CMA can't just change their ruling, specially for government pressure since they are fully independent.
In July the deal can be redone, but ATK will very likely ask for 90bn and 7bn fee for cancelling. Why would MS risk that, wait with their hands tied for 1-2 years, blocked from buying any other studio, until the CAT and FTC court decision comes out, and that decision is most likely against them? All this while leaving Sony to buy whatever small studios they want for 1-2 years without any fear of counter offers from MS.
Sure they could grow the studios they have, but MS is more the type of "why cook at home when I can go to a restaurant?".

 

[MasterCornholio]

The FTC court conclusion or CAT sending it back to CMA matters very little now. The deal is beyond dead, it's a putrid decomposing corpse full of maggots now.
The CMA can't just change their ruling, specially for government pressure since they are fully independent.
In July the deal can be redone, but ATK will very likely ask for 90bn and 7bn fee for cancelling. Why would MS risk that, wait with their hands tied for 1-2 years, blocked from buying any other studio, until the CAT and FTC court decision comes out, and that decision is most likely against them? All this while leaving Sony to buy whatever small studios they want for 1-2 years without any fear of counter offers from MS.
Sure they could grow the studios they have, but MS is more the type of "why cook at home when I can go to a restaurant?".

Is there anything that stops them from getting more studios while they work with the appeal process?

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Is there anything that stops them from getting more studios while they work with the appeal process?

The merger this big basically a huge pause button for all M&A and marketing activities for both ATVI and MS.

 

[Edmund]

Sure they could grow the studios they have, but MS is more the type of "why cook at home when I can go to a restaurant?".

MS doesn't go to the restaurant. They buy the whole fucking chain of restaurant.

 

[Ar¢tos]

Is there anything that stops them from getting more studios while they work with the appeal process?

Yes, they can't do acquisitions while the merger is waiting for the regulators approval or result of appeals.

 

[feynoob]

The merger this big basically a huge pause button for all M&A and marketing activities for both ATVI and MS.

And it can result in unwanted attention for this deal. Plus they need all the manpower that they can get.

 

[jm89]

Gaz had a M&A UK lawyer on his weekly podcast. Not some pretend TV expert. He was asked about what can Microsoft do. @Kenshin775 you should watch this.





Effectively, this acquisitions fate is in the hands of the CAT. If the CAT sends this back to the CMA then CMA will have to address the issue and Microsoft can then offer new remedies. That's it. None of this bullshit about creating some other company or carving out cloud will work.

That was a good watch. I love how gaz the entire time is trying to get some support from this lawyer that MS can isolate the UK, he politley rejects his nonsense.

 

[Bernoulli]

For the appeal we need to wait the final decision from the CMA
The 26 was only the final report
After we get the final decision they have 4 weeks to introduce the appeal to CAT, this will drag way longer

 

[feynoob]

For the appeal we need to wait the final decision from the CMA
The 26 was only the final report
After we get the final decision they have 4 weeks to introduce the appeal to CAT, this will drag way longer

Does this mean CMA can do 180* on their final decision?

 

[Bernoulli]

Gaz had a M&A UK lawyer on his weekly podcast. Not some pretend TV expert. He was asked about what can Microsoft do. @Kenshin775 you should watch this.





Effectively, this acquisitions fate is in the hands of the CAT. If the CAT sends this back to the CMA then CMA will have to address the issue and Microsoft can then offer new remedies. That's it. None of this bullshit about creating some other company or carving out cloud will work.

Wow look at the comments
They are mad saying they are siding with CMA
And mad about PS showcase that hasn't even happened wtf

 

[jm89]

Does this mean CMA can do 180* on their final decision?

Lmao you can't be serious? The investigation is over my dude, only way it gets opened up again is after a successful appeal, as has been mentioned by people more knowledgable.

 

[Bernoulli]

Does this mean CMA can do 180* on their final decision?

Yes possible
But unlikely

 

[feynoob]

Lmao you can't be serious? The investigation is over my dude, only way it gets opened up again is after a successful appeal, as has been mentioned by people more knowledgable.

Yes possible
But unlikely

That was a dig for the 180* turn on console slc.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Does this mean CMA can do 180* on their final decision?

Is that what some are hoping for now?

I think its pretty much done unless they win the appeal and then the CMA can choose different remedies for it to go through. Like divestment for example.