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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
R

reksveks

Member
feynoob said:
Would change, if MS can get a pass from EU and CMA. As their pass means MS can challenge the FTC decision.

Beyond that, I dont have expertise on it. Maybe R reksveks can help us on these parts.
Click to expand...
There is a couple of scenarios here even assuming that the EC/CMA approves.
- Microsoft closes the deal pending the FTC trial, they may have to sell ABK partially/wholly if both Administrative and Federal court rulings then goes against Microsoft
- If the Supreme Court rules in favour of Axon, and passes a ruling that the Administrative process is unconstitutional. It should allow Microsoft to go to Federal court earlier. They can still close the deal before the Federal Court case but doubt they will.
- Microsoft waits for the deal to go through the FTC process and this may take a while.
 
T

Three

Member
Menzies said:
Well, I would hope to think anti-trust regulators in the business of predicting future, would look to past trends to guide them (as of an ancient 2 years ago) and not idly dismiss this. It is the regulators defining the market as a duopoly remember, so I would hope to think a worldwide picture at a cursory glance would be noted. It looks like Xbox was outsold in the US by 10 million last generation as well, if you want to keep it within the US bubble.
Click to expand...
Anttrust regulators understand the market well. Those console unit figures began tallying in 2013, not 2 years ago. Besides console units is being pushed by MS as the market success metric to appear way behind for last gen but that's not even what they considered to be important to their strategy. Regulators also understand geographic regions and it's in their monopoly definitions.

You can't look at last gen only and make an assessment of the market, MS decided to discontinue hardware earlier than the other. MS decide not to sell or compete in regions.

Where are you getting 10M from? Did you misread your VGChartz graph. VGChartz has it at 4.8M around the time the next gen was upon us and MS stopped selling xbox ones altogether.

PS4 Vs. XOne US:
Total Lead: 4,840,587 – PS4
PS4 Total Sales: 33,113,899
Xbox One Total Sales: 28,273,312

54/46 split

Menzies said:
More like 60/40 split. If Microsoft were to gain more relevancy and a sizeable lead it will be harder to ignore. Microsoft has a better chance of playing to the strengths, versus more expensive and failed attempts to win over Japan. Especially as Square and Sony are happy to lock out the market for them.
Click to expand...
SE would love for MS to pay them for game deals, the fact that MS chooses not to do that and concentrates on deals in a particular market ( US centric online games, Outriders deal for example) has nothing to do with its competitors. It's just a lack of effort to build an installbase in a geographic region. They are trying again now but xbox one's failures in japan have nothing to do with its competitor doing anything dodgy.

Menzies said:
Sure. I would say that this is a good case study for the requirement of a global regulatory body with a holistic view of multiple markets to weigh in on. The fact that there are so many markets where Xbox doesn't stack up against the competition, and their respective regulatory bodies don't need to blink twice at this deal should say something.
Click to expand...
It says that xbox doesn't sell xbox's in Serbia. They probably don't see it as profitable enough, should units matter there? It means that in Japan they failed to garner popularity by making content catered to it or failing at marketing it there. This doesn't excuse harming competition in regions which would not even help them in Japan.
Menzies said:
You were posing the question about this deal and why they are playing to their strengths as opposed to their weaknesses? In my humble view, should Square ever release another FF game on Xbox, it won't be because they've managed to win over the Japanese market, it will be because they don't want to pass up the opportunity in the US market.
Click to expand...
With a 46/54 split even for last gen they would have been there already and have always been there. If SE decide to cater to the US market they would release on xbox anyway. SE make games and deals with MS too with content that caters to MS and the US, Outriders is an example. If MS sees FF as important content it can make a deal with SE. It decides not to. Not because of the US split but because it believes that content would not be popular with its current audience.
 
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Heisenberg007

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
dotnotbot said:
Click to expand...

Mark Cuban No GIF
Disappointed King Of The Hill GIF
Sanjay Kapoor Omg GIF by Voot Select
 
DenchDeckard

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
My thoughts go out to Hoeg. I watched his videos and was like. This guy needs to slow down. Hope he wasn't over working himself. Its been a stressful few years for all of us.

Thoughts to the whole family and I hope he regains as much movement and strength as possible. Lots of rest, change in lifestyle and come back stronger than ever.
 
Banjo64

Banjo64

cumsessed
reksveks said:
Wouldnt call some of the obstructive responses nasty, maybe petty. I might have different definitions of nasty though.
Click to expand...
I think it’s Paul Bernardo’s police interview that is famous because his lawyer absolutely tangles the police by simply asking them repeatedly to define certain statements and words. It’s a simple and frustrating tactic, but perfectly valid.
 
gothmog

gothmog

Gold Member
dotnotbot said:


Feels like their tactic now is basically negate everything, even if FTC claims that Earth isn't flat. Extremely frustrating tactic to fight against in court.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be surprised if their tactic is to lose as quickly as they can so they can appeal. A really strange and risky tactic but if you feel you can lobby your way out of this by switching to a friendlier venue it might be an attractive option.
 
R

reksveks

Member
Going to have to wait for Axon vs FTC to determine what powers/processes/proceedings are 'unconstitutional' if any. This ain't new information.
 
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DeaDPo0L84

DeaDPo0L84

Member
This just keeps getting better and I'm here for all the nonsense. So Microsoft offers an insane war chest to buy a publisher, obviously for CoD, and then when its stated that CoD is a huge game that makes a ton of money every year, they act as if they're totally oblivious to any such thing, love it.
 
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Pelta88

Pelta88

Member
Eddie-Griffin said:
Just will leave this here since the other thread was locked because....

https://www.levelup.com/en/news/718...t-awarded-personality-in-the-industry-in-2022

article referenced

https://exputer.com/news/industry/phil-spencer-most-awards-2022/

Slightly relevant since two of the awards were based on his activities negotiating this Activision deal.
Click to expand...

Our industry is fucked up.

I get that very few people beyond the core on forums, know who any gaming exec is. That said, 2022 was desolate for XBOX. The fact that Phil, who lead that drought, is the most awarded person in our industry speaks volumes.
 
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ChuckeRearmed

ChuckeRearmed

Member
akimbo009 said:
This been live tweeted or anything?
Click to expand...
Yeah, there were some tweets but nothing interesting aside "there were too many people who wanted to listen to the call" and that "neither EU nor CMA implied that they are gonna to block the deal and Microsoft expects a resolution within the next few months". Also the deal termination is July 18.
 
R

reksveks

Member
akimbo009 said:
Well shit. Looks like it's over? July 18, 2023 is the recommended schedule for.... something? Seems if they aren't resolved by then the deal terminates?
Click to expand...
Nope, just seems to be Derek re-iterating the current timelines in that tweet.



They just want do this quickly imo, but will maybe to see more detailed analysis on this short call
 
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DarkMage619

DarkMage619

$MSFT
reksveks said:


Leah is alot more experienced in this area of journalism
Click to expand...

So the FTC is not going to take their complaints to federal court to effectively shut down an 'illegal' acquisition and also aren't having any talks with the company they accused of illegalities to seek remedies. It certainly doesn't appear like they are interested in actually resolving this issue. Seems quite political indeed.
 
gothmog

gothmog

Gold Member
DarkMage619 said:
So the FTC is not going to take their complaints to federal court to effectively shut down an 'illegal' acquisition and also aren't having any talks with the company they accused of illegalities to seek remedies. It certainly doesn't appear like they are interested in actually resolving this issue. Seems quite political indeed.
Click to expand...
That's quite an interpretation. In reality, they were saying that they intend to try and settle but have not had any serious discussion about it yet. Hence they have no intention to go to court and they are authorized to engage in settlement talks.
 
Menzies

Menzies

Banned
Three said:
You can't look at last gen only and make an assessment of the market, MS decided to discontinue hardware earlier than the other. MS decide not to sell or compete in regions.
Click to expand...
They just decided to discontinue? A drop off in sales didn't support that decision? I think you're grossly over exaggerating what should be a footnote reference here.
Three said:
Where are you getting 10M from? Did you misread your VGChartz graph. VGChartz has it at 4.8M around the time the next gen was upon us and MS stopped selling xbox ones altogether.
Click to expand...
My mistake I was reading 'North America'. Which they have PS4 down at 38M against Xbox One's 31M.

Three said:
SE would love for MS to pay them for game deals, the fact that MS chooses not to do that and concentrates on deals in a particular market ( US centric online games, Outriders deal for example) has nothing to do with its competitors. It's just a lack of effort to build an installbase in a geographic region. They are trying again now but xbox one's failures in japan have nothing to do with its competitor doing anything dodgy.
Click to expand...
I also think another oversimplification here. The situation is SE would love Microsoft to pay for two-year old ports and are very much likely not open to negotiating any kind of exclusivity arrangement with Microsoft that would lead to reputational harm and a massive outcry from their established fanbase.

Three said:
It means that in Japan they failed to garner popularity by making content catered to it or failing at marketing it there. This doesn't excuse harming competition in regions which would not even help them in Japan.
Click to expand...
It's a catch 22. Xbox never found any meaningful traction in Japan and several other markets. They can shoulder their fair share of the blame, but if no publisher is prepared to take their money for fear of brand damage, and the dominant players in that region are more than happy to lock them out of 'essential input'; it doesn't seem any regulator is concerned about harming competition in these regions, or a thriving competitive 'high-performance' console market there.

Three said:
With a 46/54 split even for last gen they would have been there already and have always been there. If SE decide to cater to the US market they would release on xbox anyway. SE make games and deals with MS too with content that caters to MS and the US, Outriders is an example. If MS sees FF as important content it can make a deal with SE. It decides not to. Not because of the US split but because it believes that content would not be popular with its current audience.
Click to expand...
Again, I don't believe it's not through a lack of trying, but I could be mistaken. Hard to believe Microsoft never once in 20 years approached them, considering the weight the franchise holds in certain markets.
 
Menzies

Menzies

Banned
gothmog said:
That's quite an interpretation. In reality, they were saying that they intend to try and settle but have not had any serious discussion about it yet. Hence they have no intention to go to court and they are authorized to engage in settlement talks.
Click to expand...
There was nothing stopping the FTC engaging in "serious discussions" before choosing litigation and a movement to block.
 
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