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[Jonm1010]

Look at that graph. Look at it. Look at the big red, green, and blue sections. Then look at the microscopic violet section. Look at it again. Take off your gamer goggles and look at the data that's right in front of you. (This isn't so much at you as it is a lot of people.)

For being such a growth division, it ain't growing much. It's certainly understandable if investors are looking at the same thing and growing ever more impatient, particularly if they believe that the resources being devoted to that division could be better spent on the more profitable areas to drive larger returns.

I appreciate the childish response but if you can't

1.) answer my question

or

2.) respond to the argument I made politely, respectfully and intelligently without condescending remarks......

Perhaps responding to posters that are of the same maturity level as you would be a better use of your time?

I already acknowledged the argument of opportunity costs and shifting labor resources, I said it was a valuable point. Restating what i already said isnt really achieving anything. Nor is the condescinding tone of your post. My secondary point was about the value of the Xbox brand. If you have nothing to contribute to that then just move on.



Edit: As a side note to others, if all of Xbox, including live, is in the purple, we must also account for the fact that within that entertainment division is the numerous failed Microsoft ventures like Zune, windows phone, games for windows live, surface, RT etc and as such it doesn't give an accurate picture of what Xbox is bringing to the table for Microsoft and what the real costs and benefits are. I haven't read every single post but so far I haven't seen a true breakdown of Xbox and it's connecting revenue streams weighed against its current costs.

 

[BigWeather]

If the XBox One has the debut that the WiiU has then I can very well see Microsoft abandoning the console business. I don't think Microsoft would be as patient as Nintendo has been.

 

[dripdripsplash]

This must not happen. Sony is going to compete against Wii U only then ? What the heck will happen.

 

[Septimus Prime]

Look at that graph. Look at it. Look at the big red, green, and blue sections. Then look at the microscopic violet section. Look at it again. Take off your gamer goggles and look at the data that's right in front of you. (This isn't so much at you as it is a lot of people.)

For being such a growth division, it ain't growing much. It's certainly understandable if investors are looking at the same thing and growing ever more impatient, particularly if they believe that the resources being devoted to that division could be better spent on the more profitable areas to drive larger returns.

If I'm not mistaken, Windows Phone and Surface RT are folded into that, too, so it's impossible to tell how much those are dragging things down.

EDIT: The important one to look at is Server and Tools, which includes things like Azure and Windows Server. That was all Ballmer's doing, and now it's the second-largest division, behind Business.

 

[TheRealTalker]

so like the Sony Investor who wanted to at first spin off both the Playstation and Entertainment division and later is settling for just the Entertainment division (Leob)...
except this guy owns just what 1% of MS stock pffff-HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

[Sydle]

Looking at revenue shows the division has grown in terms of revenue generation. They need to improve their margins, but if they want to grow then they must keep investing. The fact that they're profitable is good. One day, when they aren't in a high-growth mode with so many investments then their margins will improve. It's a long-term big business game, not your lemonade stand.

If I'm not mistaken, Windows Phone and Surface RT are folded into that, too, so it's impossible to tell how much those are dragging things down.

Surface is in the Windows division. Entertainment & Devices includes Xbox, Kinect, Skype, and Windows Phone.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I already acknowledged the argument of opportunity costs and shifting labor resources, I said it was a valuable point. Restating what i already said isnt really achieving anything. Nor is the condescinding tone of your post. My secondary point was about the value of the Xbox brand. If you have nothing to contribute to that then just move on.

I'm sorry, your response reeked of a gamer-centric perspective. What brand value does Xbox have overall for Microsoft? Is Xbox driving people to Windows Phone? Keeping them with Windows OS? Keeping them on Internet Explorer? Do they use Bing? Did they buy Zunes? Are they keeping up to date buying Office? Or maybe are the same people enjoying Xbox also enjoying their iPhones and Galaxies and running Chrome? Is Google dipping in search share to any considerable degree?

The Xbox brand means a lot in gaming. I don't think much, if any, goodwill is transferring to Microsoft's other products as a result of it.

 

[Septimus Prime]

Surface is in the Windows division.

Entertainment & Devices includes Xbox, Kinect, Skype, and Windows Phone.

Thanks for the correction.

I'm sorry, your response reeked of a gamer-centric perspective. What brand value does Xbox have overall for Microsoft? Is Xbox driving people to Windows Phone? Keeping them with Windows OS? Keeping them on Internet Explorer? Do they use Bing? Did they buy Zunes? Are they keeping up to date buying Office? Or maybe are the same people enjoying Xbox also enjoying their iPhones and Galaxies and running Chrome? Is Google dipping in search share to any considerable degree?

That was the ideal behind Xbox in the first place, though, right? That's why we have Xbox LIVE on Windows Phone and Bing and IE and Zune on Xbox. Office clearly doesn't need help, but wasn't the whole plan to Trojan horse all those other things by way of Xbox?

Of course, it didn't turn out that that made much of a difference in the end. Zune's dead, IE and Bing can't keep up with their competition, and Windows Phone isn't making enough of a dent in its market even with Xbox LIVE integration. I'm pretty sure the whole Xbox One concept was meant to at least triage some of those failures.

 

[numble]

So would Xbox comprise of just the entertainment division or are things like Xbox live rolled into windows live?

Either way I would make the case that the original Xbox is now a sunk cost. It's over, it's done, it's not rational to make decisions based on it at this point. Today it seems the Xbox brand as a whole is profitable and it is generating a steady stream of profit between console sales, license fees, games and Live. There is also the non-monetary benefits of the brand which are brand loyalty, brand awareness and brand favorability(although severely hurt by the XB1) that helps microsoft as a whole. I suppose one could argue that some of the people in the division could be better used in other divisions with more profit potential and that's a legitimate argument. However I feel like just up and leaving consoles altogether before playing out this up coming gen would be rather foolish. Especially given that the grunt work of building your brand and establishing a customer base has already been done and the next gen consoles seem to aim for day one profitability. Plus the xbox brand and infastructure has a lot of potential and growth and perhaps a new philosophy from a new CEO could shake things up and deliver an even better Xbox brand.

I'm not talking about sunk costs. Today there is no indication that XBox is as profitable as any of their other divisions, and if it's looking like they're going to do worse in the next 8 year generation, it doesn't look very tempting to an investor. You talk about ignoring sunk costs, but now you're talking about past "grunt work." Ignore that. Look at the costs involved in running the division and the potential profits. If its operations were crap last generation, where they had better timing, pricing, games and an unmatched online service, what happens next generation with worse timing, pricing, the competitors offering a more competitive online service, and console sales expected to be lower than last generation? It really becomes a drag on resources and it brings down the overall profit margin.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Surface is in the Windows division.

Entertainment & Devices includes Xbox, Kinect, Skype, and Windows Phone.

And Android licence income. ^_^

 

[Y2Kev]

And Android licence income. ^_^

Isn't that like one of the largest parts of that division's income, lol

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Isn't that like one of the largest parts of that division's income, lol

^_^

 

[SPDIF]

I assume nobody in this thread is actually thinking that this could happen, correct? At the very most this will just play out like the Daniel Loeb/Sony situation. Microsoft will take it into consideration, discuss it and then firmly reject the idea.

Five to ten years down the line, if the Xbox One is a huge failure, on par with the original Xbox (which is incredibly unlikely to happen), then maybe something like this could happen. Until then, it's not even worth discussing.

 

[Hyunashi]

except this guy owns just what 1% of MS stock pffff-HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

You obviously dont understand how significant 1% is.

 

[avaya]

Isn't that like one of the largest parts of that division's income, lol

It also has the best growth potential.

 

[Cromat]

Well they won't cancel a product which is so far down the line like the Xbox One... right?

 

[Parch]

This must not happen. Sony is going to compete against Wii U only then ? What the heck will happen.

Either somebody else picks up the baton and runs with it, or we've got a real problem. I'm more inclined to agree with your first statement. This must not happen.

 

[BigDug13]

This must not happen. Sony is going to compete against Wii U only then ? What the heck will happen.

Then Sony will dominate like the PS2, then next gen after Nintendo licks their wii-u wounds, they go back to being at tech parity with Sony like the GameCube days with strong third party support.

 

[Jonm1010]

I'm sorry, your response reeked of a gamer-centric perspective. What brand value does Xbox have overall for Microsoft? Is Xbox driving people to Windows Phone? Keeping them with Windows OS? Keeping them on Internet Explorer? Do they use Bing? Did they buy Zunes? Are they keeping up to date buying Office? Or maybe are the same people enjoying Xbox also enjoying their iPhones and Galaxies and running Chrome? Is Google dipping in search share to any considerable degree?

The Xbox brand means a lot in gaming. I don't think much, if any, goodwill is transferring to Microsoft's other products as a result of it.

The mere existence of Xbox - in ads, in the news, on billboards, at sports events, sponsoring shows - adds goodwill to the Microsoft brand. And until recently it was one if not the only brand at microsoft that was mostly positively viewed by the public. It Helps keep the Microsoft name in a favorable light(until recently), it keeps the Microsoft name in people's minds. It does have value in that respect.

Furthermore like I said in my edit it is impossible to know the true monetary vaue of Xbox right now because it's kept private and it's rolled into a division with an enormous amount of losses affecting it.

Lastly the argument of opportunity costs and shifting labor resources really does only make sense if equal or greater talent can't be found outside of the company and I don't think that is really the case. Transitioning most of those employees would likely cost just as much, if not more(given relocation costs and training and such) then hiring new employees and training them. Whereas if the division is profitable at this moment and remains so, it sustains itself and is really just a net positive for investors.

 

[Septimus Prime]

I assume nobody in this thread is actually thinking that this could happen, correct? At the very most this will just play out like the Daniel Loeb/Sony situation. Microsoft will take it into consideration, discuss it and then firmly reject the idea.

Five to ten years down the line, if the Xbox One is a huge failure, on par with the original Xbox (which is incredibly unlikely to happen), then maybe something like this could happen. Until then, it's not even worth discussing.

It depends on how things shake out. I think it would have ended up similar to the Sony/Loeb situation (although that one was slightly different because it had nothing to do with PlayStation and more to do with movies and music) if Ballmer is still at the helm, but now that he's resigning, it's really hard to predict what his successor might do (or who he or she even will be).

 

[Randolph Freelander]

If Microsoft exits the business (big if), then if the business is worth being in (another big if), then somebody will be in it. I wouldn't worry about competition for Sony and Nintendo, assuming there's something worth competing for.

 

[Murder. She Wrote]

Who would they sell the xbox division to? SEGA PLS

No but seriously who has the money to afford it? Amazon? Apple?

 

[Sydle]

I'm sorry, your response reeked of a gamer-centric perspective. What brand value does Xbox have overall for Microsoft? Is Xbox driving people to Windows Phone? Keeping them with Windows OS? Keeping them on Internet Explorer? Do they use Bing? Did they buy Zunes? Are they keeping up to date buying Office? Or maybe are the same people enjoying Xbox also enjoying their iPhones and Galaxies and running Chrome? Is Google dipping in search share to any considerable degree?

The Xbox brand means a lot in gaming. I don't think much, if any, goodwill is transferring to Microsoft's other products as a result of it.

I'm pretty sure the Xbox was intended to grow their entertainment revenue and build more consumer marketshare, not productivity, business, or online services (they have specific offerings for those markets).

Revenue from the EDD has grown significantly, they just keep investing more which makes their operating income look paltry. Remember that huge campus expansion they just did for the EDD, and the studios they've been snapping up in games and TV? If MS wants anything to do with the entertainment market then they'd best stick with Xbox.

If Microsoft exits the business (big if), then if the business is worth being in (another big if), then somebody will be in it. I wouldn't worry about competition for Sony and Nintendo, assuming there's something worth competing for.

There's no question that's it's a growth market.

And the EDD has most certainly seen significant revenue growth. Their operating income is low, but they're also in a high-investment period with new studios, a bigger campus, R&D for new devices (X1 and Kinect 2), and breaking into the TV business (and paying big bucks for NFL deals). Once those new investments begin to pay off then their operating incoming will increase.

Again, if MS wants to be in the consumer entertainment industry Xbox is their only and best shot. They made some missteps, but they'll be forgotten within a few months so long as MS rights the wrongs.

 

[TheRealTalker]

You obviously dont understand how significant 1% is.

isn't 5% and more only have the ability of making the company consider the option the share holder is presenting correct? I don't know how much change a 1% shareholder can do

 

[Jonm1010]

I'm not talking about sunk costs. Today there is no indication that XBox is as profitable as any of their other divisions, and if it's looking like they're going to do worse in the next 8 year generation, it doesn't look very tempting to an investor. You talk about ignoring sunk costs, but now you're talking about past "grunt work." Ignore that. Look at the costs involved in running the division and the potential profits. If its operations were crap last generation, where they had better timing, pricing, games and an unmatched online service, what happens next generation with worse timing, pricing, the competitors offering a more competitive online service, and console sales expected to be lower than last generation? It really becomes a drag on resources and it brings down the overall profit margin.

The original Xbox consoles losses are a sunk cost. The grunt work I talked about in terms of established customer base and established brand is relevant to future costs and future revenues, therefore it is not a sunk cost and something rational to make a decision based on. Microeconomics 101 right there haha.

I haven't once said that I for sure know the Xbox and it's revenue streams are making a big profit, I'm pretty sure I just pointed out that it's impossible to know given how Microsoft divides up their divisions and doesn't publicly separate out the xbox in earnings reports for the public. Tough indicators seem to hint that Xbox is making money at this point. It might not in the future, then again it might. My overarching point was that I think that a new philosophy from a new CEO and a shake up + playing out this next gen should all happen before a final decision on cutting or keeping xbox should be made.

 

[Jotaka]

isn't 5% and more only have the ability of making the company consider the option the share holder is presenting correct? I don't know how much change a 1% shareholder can do

It is not just 1%. There are other big shareholders with the same idea about the subject.

 

[Parch]

Well they won't cancel a product which is so far down the line like the Xbox One... right?

I think there's zero chance of that. Legit reasons for the previous losses from the XBox and RROD 360, but there's nothing to suggest the XBOne can't at least break even. Plus I don't think Microsoft would ever dreamcast a system. They'll just play out the gen even if it takes another loss. They've eaten a loss before, they'll do it again. It's not like the entire Microsoft empire is in financial trouble like Sega was.

There's just no guarantee that they'll maintain the gaming division after this gen.

 

[Mentok]

There is also the non-monetary benefits of the brand which are brand loyalty, brand awareness and brand favorability (although severely hurt by the XB1) that helps Microsoft as a whole

If that were the case, it would show in the figures of their other divisions. If the investors are bringing this up, that suggests it hasn't happened. If the overall profit is minimal to the cost, it suggests to investors it's not worth keeping. Doesn't mean this will happen soon (I doubt they'd allow a new generation of console to hit the shelves if they were seriously considering this), but it does probably have a factor in the future of the Xbox should the One undersell.

And until recently it was one if not the only brand at microsoft that was mostly positively viewed by the public.

Just curious how this was calculated. Random sample asking which Microsoft product people liked, or was it product specific surveys?

 

[TheRealTalker]

It is not just 1%. There are other big shareholders with the same idea about the subject.

Okay I see

 

[t26]

This must not happen. Sony is going to compete against Wii U only then ? What the heck will happen.

Things were fine when we only had PlayStation and Nintendo 64.

 

[Winterfang]

If Xbox is put to death then in quitting the Hobbie, plain and simple. I already had to endure the dead of Sega Hardware, never again.

 

[Jonm1010]

If that were the case, it would show in the figures of their other divisions. If the investors are bringing this up, that suggests it hasn't happened. If the overall profit is minimal to the cost, it suggests to investors it's not worth keeping. Doesn't mean this will happen soon (I doubt they'd allow a new generation of console to hit the shelves if they were seriously considering this), but it does probably have a factor in the future of the Xbox should the One undersell.



Just curious how this was calculated. Random sample asking which Microsoft product people liked, or was it product specific surveys?

Well obviously it's just my opinion on the last part. But given how liked Xbox has been by most up until recently and how much scrutiny and lessening favorability people seem to be having with many other Microsoft products, I would assume it to be the case. Perhaps a bit overstated but still.

And let's remember this is one big investor and it's unclear what the whole of the company is feeling.

Aside from all this speculation about profits and value I would suspect that nothing is going to happen until a new CEO is chosen and some time has passed into next gen.

 

[abadguy]

This must not happen. Sony is going to compete against Wii U only then ? What the heck will happen.

Sony would find themselves in a position where they have no real competition.

If Xbox is put to death then in quitting the Hobbie, plain and simple. I already had to endure the dead of Sega Hardware, never again.

The situation with the DC still gets on my nerves to this day when i think about it. I honestly can't see that happening with the Xbox though.

 

[McHuj]

I'm pretty sure the Xbox was intended to grow their entertainment revenue and build more consumer marketshare, not productivity, business, or online services (they have specific offerings for those markets).

Revenue from the EDD has grown significantly, they just keep investing more. Remember that huge campus expansion they just did for the EDD, and the studios they've been snapping up in games and TV? If MS wants anything to do with the entertainment market then they'd best stick with Xbox.



There's no question that's it's a growth market. Again, if MS wants to be in the consumer entertainment industry Xbox is their only and best shot. They made some missteps, but they'll be forgotten within a few months so long as MS rights the wrongs.

That's just it. It won't be just xbox that's on a potential chopping block, but Windows Phone, tablets, and all consumer devices. I think the next CEO will make the decision whether Microsoft continues to chase Apple or becomes an IBM like entity that mainly services the corporate world.

 

[numble]

The original Xbox consoles losses are a sunk cost. The grunt work I talked about in terms of established customer base and established brand is relevant to future costs and future revenues, therefore it is not a sunk cost and something rational to make a decision based on. Microeconomics 101 right there haha.

I haven't once said that I for sure know the Xbox and it's revenue streams are making a big profit, I'm pretty sure I just pointed out that it's impossible to know given how Microsoft divides up their divisions and doesn't publicly separate out the xbox in earnings reports for the public. Tough indicators seem to hint that Xbox is making money at this point. It might not in the future, then again it might. My overarching point was that I think that a new philosophy from a new CEO and a shake up + playing out this next gen should all happen before a final decision on cutting or keeping xbox should be made.

You can double the purple section of the graph I posted and it is still a drain on Microsoft's resources and profit margin. Shareholders do not want Microsoft to be a break even business or even just marginally profitable businesses. Look at the other sections of the graph and see that the other divisions are bringing in multiple billions of profit each quarter, but the overall profit margin is being brought down by the entertainment division.

 

[BigDug13]

.



The situation with the DC still gets on my nerves to this day when i think about it.

I blame EA. it seems like they're trying to do the same to the Wii-U.

 

[Parch]

If Xbox is put to death then in quitting the Hobby, plain and simple. I already had to endure the dead of Sega Hardware, never again.

I really don't care how much the haters want it to happen. The loss of a gaming company is not good for the industry.

 

[Slavik81]

Don't know if that is accurate but if true than it's understandable that investors would say this.

Hello, sunk cost fallacy.

The only thing that matters is how much money the Xbox will make/lose from today onwards. The fact that it lost money in 2003-2007 is entirely irrelevant.

 

[Coolwhip]

Who would they sell the xbox division to? SEGA PLS

No but seriously who has the money to afford it? Amazon? Apple?

Why would anybody buy the smoking ruins of Don Mattrick?

 

[Ploid 3.0]

Ok guys, time to start buying multiple xbox ones, xbox games, kinect games. On the other hand if they sell it it won't actually be destroyed, it'll just have a new owner. Xbox isn't going anywhere.

 

[killer rin]

That's just it. It won't be just xbox that's on a potential chopping block, but Windows Phone, tablets, and all consumer devices. I think the next CEO will make the decision whether Microsoft continues to chase Apple or becomes an IBM like entity that mainly services the corporate world.

I really don't see that happening. Even with the new CEO coming in, the entire board of executives is still the same people who made the decision to both restructure Microsoft to focus on devices and services and who also signed off and doubled down on the consumer facing stuff. At the head of the board is still Bill Gates, and even if hes part time he still has the most stock and the most influence.

A CEO really is just the face of a company and while a CEO is powerful, a CEO without his board is powerless and will be sent away.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

A 1% investor can have a lot of stroke at the annual investor's meeting. They can grill the board with pointed questions that lead to an overall sense that a certain direction is wrong, which is how votes to change course happen. All these Q&As are then recorded in the minutes, which are then distributed to the entire shareholder base. If someone is a firebrand for a particular issue, they can gather proxy votes from a much larger base of shareholders (even those smaller shareholders not in attendance, magnifying their power to change policies even more.)

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway were masters of this, especially in their early years.

 

[abadguy]

I blame EA. it seems like they're trying to do the same to the Wii-U.

I remember vowing to never buy another EA game for as long as i lived because of that. But then Burnout 3 came out.

I really don't care how much the haters want it to happen. The loss of a gaming company is not good for the industry.

Agreed. 100%

 

[ZealousD]

Concorde Fallacy

I am not saying that Microsoft should sell Xbox, only that sunk costs shouldn't be the deciding factor.

The point I'm making is that Microsoft is currently at the stage where their XBOX division is the least profitable and most of the losses occur. Xbox may be a net negative division for Microsoft, but the negative occurs in the roll up to the new console. Xbox One might be unprofitable for a year or so, but over the long term they will have years where they can take in a profit and at least recoup some of the costs. If you're going to pull the plug, it makes sense to do it when it causes the least amount of damage.

Besides, how exactly does it build Microsoft as a brand to start hyping up a brand new console and then pull the plug immediately after launch? That kind of thing will damage your brand in the long term. Who wants to buy a product from a company that would sabotage one of their own flagship products like that? It's a softer blow if Microsoft rides it out and then just decides to make a business decision later not to make a fourth console.

 

[Mentok]

Well obviously it's just my opinion on the last part. But given how liked Xbox has been by most up until recently and how much scrutiny and lessening favorability people seem to be having with many other Microsoft products, I would assume it to be the case. Perhaps a bit overstated but still.

Fair enough, but I'm willing to bet that of the billions of people that know Microsoft's products like Office, Windows, etc. there are a lot that don't know they make Xbox.

And let's remember this is one big investor and it's unclear what the whole of the company is feeling.

Agreed.

I really don't care how much the haters want it to happen. The loss of a gaming company is not good for the industry.

If Microsoft wants out, I'm sure there would be buyers for the division. I could see a company like Amazon or Google trying their hand with it.

 

[Xplatformer]

Look..I loved the original XBox. Bought it at launch...had a shitty DVD drive, bought a second unit and loved it.

But somewhere near the EOL of the original XBox I started to get a vibe from Microsoft that didn't coincide with mine.

The platform was about gamers, but the company behind the platform didn't seem to be that behind the gamer.

I think it had a lot to do with my perception of their first party titles not named Halo and Forza.

Anyway...I think the Xbox platform has been great for gamers, but I have no desire to jump back on the platform.

 

[charsace]

I've been saying for a while now that this is possibly the last console generation. With these consoles being media boxes I can see things being like they were back before the mid 90's; companies put out their own boxes. You are gonna have HSA compliant boxes being put out by companies like you see with today's tablet market. It would be dumb for MS to drop xbox. They need the division to help build towards a store similar to what apple and google have.

 

[Sydle]

You can double the purple section of the graph I posted and it is still a drain on Microsoft's resources and profit margin. Shareholders do not want Microsoft to be a break even business or even just marginally profitable businesses. Look at the other sections of the graph and see that the other divisions are bringing in multiple billions of profit each quarter, but the overall profit margin is being brought down by the entertainment division.

You do know that there are heavy investments in the EDD, right, especially in the last few years?

• Enormous EDD campus expansion
• More game studios
• TV studios
• Kinect 2.0 R&D
• X1 R&D
• Live R&D
• Windows Phone 8

The fact that they're profitable and revenue has grown significantly should be a good sign that once these numerous heavy new investments are off the ground and in flight then there should be more revenue. More revenue and less heavy expenditures increase operating income. It would be incredibly stupid to pull out anytime soon without seeing X1 through at least the next 5 years given all the very recent investments.

If anything, as an investor, I would expect the CEO to be laser focused on the Windows, tablet, and phone markets. Selling more Windows OS on consumer-oriented devices opens up significantly more doors for growth in people using Office, Bing (more Bing ad revenue), Xbox (Live subscriptions, music, video, TV), and Skype. Good God, the new CEO would have to be mentally handicapped to get rid of the Xbox division, or even make it a heavy area of focus in his/her early days.

 

[HK-47]

Pokemon Red and Blue came out in 1998 in NA and EU regions. That's where most of Nintendo's profits lie.

There was also a little known game called Ocarina of Time.

 

[Parch]

If Microsoft wants out, I'm sure there would be buyers for the division. I could see a company like Amazon or Google trying their hand with it.

I'm not convinced of that. If Microsoft and all their resources can't make it work, I have doubts that there's any company real eager to take over the risk.