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[Nazgul_Hunter]

Nate Cohn throwing some cold water on the early lead in twitter.

Democrats who win MT usually win Lake/Cascade Counties, hold close in Yellowstone. Quist down 7-20 in the e.v. in all three.

 

[Armaros]

Guys don't take the bait of an alt that has only posted twice in 4 years. Both times in this thread.

 

[The Adder]

Nate Cohn throwing some cold water on the early lead in twitter.

Like I said. Anyone watching for the win is watching the wrong numbers. Watch the margins. Especially county-by-county. That's what matters in this election.

GA-6 is where we need an actual win.

 

[CrocMother]

Not the mouthbreathers. They'll die before the vote for libruls.

48% don't vote. All effort needs to be focused on them.

I think you might have more luck with people who vote R than those who don't vote at all.

The latter are even more lost a lot of times.

 

[Hellwarden]

Montana doesn't allow people to change their vote right? A lot of people voted early right?

Wonder how many people wish they could change their vote right now.

 

[raebodep]

powerful forces are at work here

 

[Sweeney Tom]

That was one election cycle, six months ago. Seems like a flimsy standard for "always wrong."

Also there have been 2 seat changes since said election, both going from R to D. So it's also factually wrong too.

 

[Crocodile]

People on here have been saying the same thing since the 2016 election, and yet you guys are always wrong. "Demographics have changed, no way that Trump wins the election." It sounds like same arguments.

"One thing was bad so all things from now and forever are bad"

Make a specific argument. Which events (I guess they specifically would have to be elections) in the past 6 months do you think went poorly that you felt assured by others would go well. It's not like we haven't flipped some seats in Illinois, New York or New Hampshire in the past few months or goo results in a recent Philadelphia DA race. Not everything goes our way =/= nothing goes our way.

Democrats lost over 1,000 seats under Obama yet he had decent approval numbers

Wait so you agree with the poster you are quoting with then no?

 

[Lord Frieza]

Democrats lost over 1,000 seats under Obama yet he had decent approval numbers

Not through his whole term he didn't. He dipped pretty low at times actually

 

[TheCochese]

Also there have been 2 seat changes since said election, both going from R to D. So it's also factually wrong too.

Which two?

 

[Mr. RPG]

Quist is outperforming the 2016 Democratic House candidate so I suppose that is good news.

 

[CrocMother]

Which two?

I know one was a State Senate seat in New York

 

[NYR]

Nate Silver pretty much saying it is over.

These maps from Decision Desk HQ are useful here. Quist is running behind Gov. Steve Bullock’s results almost everywhere (Bullock won by 4 points in 2016) but ahead of the Democratic U.S. House candidate from 2016 almost everywhere (who lost by 15 points). So it’s not a bad showing, but it’s probably still in line with a loss. With that said, we’re still mostly looking at early vote rather than Election Day returns.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Democrats lost over 1,000 seats under Obama yet he had decent approval numbers

His approval numbers were horrible in 2010 and 2014

 

[TheCochese]

I know one was a State Senate seat in New York

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

Arguably, state seats matter more than federal seats.

 

[The Adder]

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

They actually mean more than this seat does.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Montana doesn't allow people to change their vote right? A lot of people voted early right?

Wonder how many people wish they could change their vote right now.

Yeah that's right. Someone posted earlier that there was a lot of calls to change votes so it might be a different story if you could

 

[TestOfTide]

Nate Silver pretty much saying it is over.

The bigger question is how much Quist loses by.

If he loses by less than 5 points, then that's progress.

If he loses by double digits, then fuck trying to appeal to rural white voters.

 

[Sobriquet]

Whoever wins this will be up for reelection next year, right?

 

[Blader]

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

That kind of thinking is why Democrats lost so many seats the last eight years, and why states like North Carolina and Wisconsin have become so badly fucked up by local Republicans.

Whoever wins this will be up for reelection next year, right?

Yep.

 

[RC0101]

Whoever wins this will be up for reelection next year, right?

Yes

 

[Lord Frieza]

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

They do, and those were two seats that had never had a Democrat elected to them before

 

[Mr. RPG]

I hope Quist runs again in 2018.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Whoever wins this will be up for reelection next year, right?

As far as I know, yes.

 

[~Kinggi~]

I bet you thought the traitor would be President too, I mean, all the numbers said so.

I hope someone does some IP hunting for your other account.

 

[TheCochese]

Arguably, state seats matter more than federal seats.

No one gave a damn when Ga 32 stayed Republican, wholly inside Ga-6. *shrug*

Seems like goalposts are shifting.

That kind of thinking is why Democrats lost so many seats the last eight years, and why states like North Carolina and Wisconsin have become so badly fucked up by local Republicans.

You read way too much into that. I'm talking about between now and 2018.

 

[PKrockin]

Nate Silver pretty much saying it is over.

Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 21m21 minutes ago
Democrats who win MT usually win Lake/Cascade Counties, hold close in Yellowstone. Quist down 7-20 in the e.v. in all three.

Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 28m28 minutes ago
Gianforte got what he would have hoped for in the absentee. Quist is going to need a huge Election Day.

Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 37m37 minutes ago
According to NYT/AP, this includes ~half of precincts in both counties. That usually means Election Day votes, but we don't know what's left

Nate Cohn‏Verified account @Nate_Cohn 38m38 minutes ago
We already have some early resultsfrom Montana, and they're good for Gianforte. He's running ahead of what he needs in Helena and Billings

(((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 1h1 hour ago
Is anyone actually expecting a Quist win?

 

[hodayathink]

Yeah that's right. Someone posted earlier that there was a lot of calls to change votes so it might be a different story if you could

And remember that even if he wins, this guy has to run for re-election again in 18 months. Those people that want to change their votes now are who you target for the next 18 months and make sure they never forget about what happened yesterday.

 

[CrocMother]

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

It definitely can mean something. For example, New York City passed a progressive plastic bag tax which was struck down by the State legislature. That tax would have prevented millions of tons of plastic pollution over time.

A more notable example would be Charlotte's progressive LGBT laws being struck down by the North Carolina state government and replaced with the draconic HB2 "bathroom bill".

 

[DUFFMCWALIN]

I bet you thought the traitor would be President too, I mean, all the numbers said so.

How do the Russians still slip in here?

If your not a Russian then I'm embarrassed for you, because then you'd just be an idiot.

 

[Stinkles]

I bet you thought the traitor would be President too, I mean, all the numbers said so.

You talk like you drive a PT Cruiser with a lot of bumper stickers and cropdust passengers while you push the drink trolley past them because you think they look liberal. Luckily they can't fire you because the union protected you when you put all that weight on despite the fact you never paid dues. Susan.

 

[Sobriquet]

Yes

As far as I know, yes.

That's pretty brutal. Start campaigning as soon as you're in office.

 

[Lord Frieza]

The bigger question is how much Quist loses by.

If he loses by less than 5 points, then that's progress.

If he loses by double digits, then fuck trying to appeal to rural white voters.

Yeah, but we needed a win. Maybe we'll get it Georgia

 

[XGRaViSmOrSX]

I don't think anything on the state level means much.

As NYS is trying to pass single payer, it sure as shit matters.

 

[RC0101]

Dissapointing. It's difficult living in a predominantly red state. Hopefully Quist will keep it within single digits.

 

[CrocMother]

Successful troll is successful...

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Montana doesn't allow people to change their vote right? A lot of people voted early right?

Wonder how many people wish they could change their vote right now.

I am not aware of any state that allows a voter to change their vote once it's cast. Situations like this are why I always try to vote on Election Day rather than absentee.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Yeah, but we needed a win. Maybe we'll get it Georgia

Winning this was always going to be a longshot. This race is more important for the margins than it is about the actual seat being filled.

 

[CrocMother]

I am not aware of any state that allows a voter to change their vote once it's cast. Situations like this are why I always try to vote on Election Day rather than absentee.

So you are actively debating whether to vote for the Democrat or the Republican up to the day of the election normally?

 

[mercenar1e]

he body slams a person and still wins lol

 

[Lord Frieza]

Dissapointing. It's difficult living in a predominantly red state. Hopefully Quist will keep it within single digits.

Yeah, it never ceases to crush you even though you know it's coming.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

he body slams a person and still wins lol

Because most of the state voted long before he body slammed anyone.

 

[TestOfTide]

Yeah, but we needed a win. Maybe we'll get it Georgia

We already got our wins in recent special elections in NH and NY. With red states like MT we don't need wins, we just need to make it close enough to scare the GOP for the midterms.

If we can scare the GOP with enough close races in special elections, then that allows the Dems to REALLY scare the GOP by going wide, investing all over.

 

[Chris R]

Dissapointing. It's difficult living in a predominantly red state. Hopefully Quist will keep it within single digits.

Ain't this the truth

Maybe Alaska's at large will go to not Don Young sometime in my life.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Winning this was always going to be a longshot. This race is more important for the margins than it is about the actual seat being filled.

A loss is a loss. Margins shrinking are good, of could, but a red seat remains a red seat regardless.

 

[PKrockin]

Winning this was always going to be a longshot. This race is more important for the margins than it is about the actual seat being filled.

Closing the gap by only 5 points (Cook partisan lean has the district at R+11) is more predictive of small Dem gains in Congress, not the kind of 10-point swing that would gain us the House, I think. But I'll wait and see the results and what the experts say about it.

 

[Blader]

You read way too much into that. I'm talking about between now and 2018.

Huh?

Look, winning any seat is important. Flipping any seat from R to D is especially important. If we're looking at winning back state legislatures as an important -- if not essential -- goal for Dems over the next few years, then flipping any state seat is a big deal toward that goal.

 

[KHarvey16]

A loss is a loss.

That's 100% wrong.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Because most of the state voted long before he body slammed anyone.

Bingo. Montana does lots of early voting (because it's rural so having to drive to the polling station is more of an inconvenience than mailing your ballot in) and the assault happened the evening before election day.