Lord Frieza
Member
I didn't mean to downplay those wins, just meant to say we need more wins.
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Montana US House Special Election Thread [GOP Hold]
- Thread starter Mr. RPG
- Start date
I didn't mean to downplay those wins, just meant to say we need more wins.
balladofwindfishes
Member
But a loss isn't really always a loss. If this shows a dramatic shift to Democrats, but we still lose the election (which we were never predicted to win), then we have a nice long list of actually winnable seats with that margin that have a good chance of shifting to the Democrats in 2018.
This seat is basically meaningless as far as governing goes, so winning or losing isn't really that important. Nothing Ryan puts forth is only going to pass by a single vote that this election could have decided, that's not really how the House works.
This isn't the only election, it's one data point. State seat margin shifts have been bonkers the last few months, and Georgia is a big one to watch as well, since that one could shift way more than 5.
Well never truly know if that would have been the case if not for early voting.
TestOfTide
Banned
And I'm saying that we'll get more wins when we scare the GOP more, because the more scared the GOP is the easier it is for the Dems to use all these donations and funds to go VERY wide on campaign investments.
Lord Frieza
Member
I am? Okay, what position does Quist get then if he gets less votes than Hulk Hogan?
I think they mean they want to have the most up to date info when they vote. That doesn't always mean voting for the R's, it could mean abstaining or voting 3rd party too.
Grizzle_Dat
Banned
To be honest I believe that was his best redeeming quality .
hodayathink
Member
If he can get it to 5 points or so, it's a 7-8 point swing, not five (it'd be R+3 or thereabouts). Not to mention the fact that right now, things are trending downwards for Republicans, so a 10 point swing would still be in play.
Quist's fate is not what's ultimately at stake here. The seat itself is nearly irrelevant.
Squirrel Killer
Member
They're not unimportant, but 1-2 state seats don't matter. Control of a state house? Now you're talking. Using a couple of state seats flipping as an indicator of a sea change is basing the claim on a very small sample.
Nate said a 4-8 point win for the republican would be a good sign for Democrats nationally.
QUOTE=PKrockin;238105872]Closing the gap by only 5 points (Cook partisan lean has the district at R+11) is more predictive of small Dem gains in Congress, not the kind of 10-point swing that would gain us the House, I think. But I'll wait and see the results and what the experts say about it.[/QUOTE]
This is a +20 R state that dems havent won a house seat in decades.
QUOTE=PKrockin;238105872]Closing the gap by only 5 points (Cook partisan lean has the district at R+11) is more predictive of small Dem gains in Congress, not the kind of 10-point swing that would gain us the House, I think. But I'll wait and see the results and what the experts say about it.[/QUOTE]
This is a +20 R state that dems havent won a house seat in decades.
Yes. Odds are a fine and community service.
Yes, he goes to court regardless.
Grizzle_Dat
Banned
Yes but they already said it would not be felony assault so it doesn't matter
Lord Frieza
Member
They are more important in this case I think because Democrats have never been in them before
Every seat is important.
Username1198
Member
New CNN vote total
47% count in
47.9-assaulter
46.3-quist
47% count in
47.9-assaulter
46.3-quist
The seat is not as important as shrinking that +R number. A 5 point R win is almost exactly the same as a small D win. This specific seat isn't the prize.
balladofwindfishes
Member
- Democrats have no chance of getting the majority before 2018, so by raw numbers it's meaningless
- The GOP has a big enough margin that a single vote is irrelevant for passing stuff. Winning/Losing this isn't going to change anything that gets out of the House.
This seat isn't really important for Democrats to take right now.
The point of it is to build your party up gradually until you can win a few cycles in. In terms of successful third parties Minnesota and the North East have a history of some wins.
He really didn't commit felony assault, and of course it still matters.
Every seat is important. If Dems get this one, it's still one seat closer to the actual tipping point, instead of just delaying things.
That is remarkably disgraceful.
A win here would help motivate the Dem's base elsewhere, namely during the other upcoming special elections and 2018's midterms, not to mention it would mean they would need less Republicans to vote no on whatever vile legislation the GOP comes up with.
I don't believe it met the requirements for felony assault.
You expect empathy from Republicans? 'Fuck you I've got mine' is their motto.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The entire map resets in 2018, every seat is up again. There's no "getting closer" before 2018, there aren't enough special elections before 2018 to hit the majority.
Dude Abides
Banned
But the tipping point won't happen until 2018 and this seat will be up at that time, so this particular election is not meaningful from a governance standpoint.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
They don't see "liberal reporters" as human, much less, American. They just see enemy and hate. Its always OK if "the other" is the one that is attacked. Much like how they don't see the wrong in an unarmed black person getting killed by police. To them they are already lower than the rest and probably "deserved it".
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Cannot wait for tomorrow when Rep, Trump, etc go balls deep on this win.
Yup. Getting to run against GG Bodyslammer is probably a good thing in 2018.
If Quist does manage to come out below expectations in Bilings, Dems elsewhere need to heed that as a warning- running with a rural populist appeal will causes you to bleed voters among your actual base. This isn't an issue for candidates running in rural districts, but in mixed or suburban ones, that's probably a recipe for a loss.
Fenderputty
Banned
Couple of these seats and more people would have had to flip for the AHCA, though you're largely correct
toddhunter
Member
You think people really care?
People vote for the "R". You could put anyone in the roll and it wouldn't matter.
The only way things change is if the main religious groups such as the Christian fundamentalists and fox news decide enough is enough and try to help America, not hurt it.
Funkyhamster
Member
I think you might be misinterpreting the notation? I thought R+11 means that the Republican is expected to get 22% more of the vote than the Democrat. I could be wrong, but I thought I read this on GAF recently. I'm trying to look up exactly what the notation means (and what its name is) right now.
Squirrel Killer
Member
So? Unless it's swinging control of a body, 1 out of 7,383 is less important than 1 out of 535. A handful are going to flip in special elections every cycle.
Grizzle_Dat
Banned
Doesn't matter meaning he can't be prosecuted and removed from office because of it
hodayathink
Member
Just like with the Senate confirmations, much of that was show. If the Republicans needed more people to vote for the AHCA (that time), they would have gotten them. They basically allowed everyone they could to vote against it to help their own campaigns.
Lord Frieza
Member
Don't be obtuse
That's not guaranteed at all. There's a reason that bill was shelved twice
Alex_Mexico
Member
So how are we doing? The Dems remembered how to win again?
Negative. Looking like Gianforte is going to win by 5-10 points.
I expect Trump will claim that "Polls said Dem would win! Big win in Montana for Repubs!!!" even though not a single poll ever had Gianforte losing.
The only good thing that comes out of this is that a few (and I mean a few probably) members of the GOP realize their party really is morally bankrupt and get out of it. I don't even care where they go. Just... somewhere that has people who aren't deplorable human pieces of shit.
ForsakenLotus
Member
Sorry if this has been answered but what happens if he is arrested and sentenced and he wins the election?
I think you're both right. On one hand I do think they would have found the numbers no matter what, by simply not releasing people to vote against it in fear of repercussions in future elections. On the other hand whittling down the number of benchers they can pull from makes that a much harder feat to pull off. Especially if there is internal resistance.
Tallshortman
Member
The average hardcore republican voter is more of a "Fuck you I've got none" mindset. They continually vote against their own economic interests.
TheCochese
Banned
He gets the keys to the special GOP men's room.
Lord Frieza
Member
Nothing
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