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[Welfare]

200kish gap.

Things are starting to clear.

 

[RexNovis]

Welp, lost the bet. This new avatar...

T_T

Bahahahaha im sorry man but that is priceless. Wear it with honor.

 

[Bluenoser]

200kish gap.

Wow so PS4 did >1500k and XB1 did >1300k? Amazing.

 

[wtshaolin]

Wow so PS4 did >1500k and XB1 did >1300k? Amazing.

Exact opposite of my prediction...

 

[spatenfloot]

If PS4 did indeed get a 100% yoy increase, how long till every human being gets their own PS4 ?

Hey, that gives me a great idea for an Ars Technica article! I could even make a chart!

 

[AmyS]

wrong thread.

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

So How close to infoscouts 1% is the 200k gap from the rumored numbers we currently have? Seems like it ended up being a decent source for sales trends.

 

[The Artisan]

Welp, lost the bet. This new avatar...

T_T

the person you made the bet with told you to use mine if you lost?

 

[AgentP]

Welp, lost the bet. This new avatar...

T_T

LOL, ouch.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

the choices for the avatar bets are pretty great

 

[Tivor Tontomo]

duplicate removed.

 

[Welfare]

the choices for the avatar bets are pretty great

I gave Chobel the option of either that pic or a generic Xbox One picture, but he let me pick in the end.

Shouldn't have done that.

 

[donny2112]

1990k remains crazy.

USERNAME                    PS4        XB1
-------------------- ---------- ----------
Cereal Enthusiast       1500000    1100000
jbluzb                  1500000     750000
gtj1092                 1500000    1080000
GobFather               1500000    1000000
elite09                 1500000    1150000
Triggerhappytel         1504000    1502000
Fat4all                 1576000    1412000
ghost4soul              1600000    1400000
OnionPowder             1630000    1570000
Mr Swine                1630000    1480000
andy_lhc                1650000    1550000
mushrambio              1850000    1700000
anothertech             1990000     990000
Stanng243               2000000     900000
DieH@rd                 2010000    1630000
daniel77733             2200000    1800000

 

[Ty4on]

To those keeping track, are PS4 and XB1 sales up or down YTD from last year?

 

[Welfare]

To those keeping track, are PS4 and XB1 sales up or down YTD from last year?

Both are up.

 

[Ty4on]

Both are up.

Ballpark percentage?

 

[stryke]

Ballpark percentage?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=188792408&highlight=#post188792408

 

[noshten]

My predictions are off by about 1 million

 

[Darth Smurf X]

First off, I'd like to take this time to mourn my numbers this month.

What really stinks is that my original prediction was PS4: 1.4; XB1: 1.25 and I kept reducing them and reducing them based on anecdotal evidence, skepticism and comparing them to previous November records.

But I digress. Looking at the numbers, I can't help thinking about this chart for Black Friday 2015.

That means... Star Wars and CoD bundle preorders did INSANELY well, in addition to U:NDC bundles selling throughout November. Congrats, Sony. That was really well-played marketing dollars spent.

On the flip-side, when they teach marketing no-no's in future college classes—right after they show detailed slides on the Xbox One's debut—I have a feeling Rise of the Tomb Raider will be the next lesson on how to kill your brand. I really hope that check from MS to SE/CD was huge... and I don't mean in physical dimensions like some cardboard novelty check. If any good is to come from this, maybe, just maybe, other companies will learn from SE/CD's mistake.

 

[Welfare]

[3DS] 470K [-120k]
[PS4] 1306K [-233k]
[WIU] 234K [-6k]
[XB1] 1268K [-28k]

3DS fell a lot more than I thought it would. NX will come next year, folks.

 

[Neuromancer]

So ps4 didn't win BF?

They were afraid to release their MAUs, so probably not.

 

[noobie]

[3DS] 480K
[PS4] 1180K
[WIU] 295K
[XB1] 1070K

Spoiler

I feel after October results that XBOX is again going to dominate November and December.. So is going to loose their lead again due to being complacent.. they are going for profit margins instead of market domination

I thought Sony will be complacent but look like they were less complacent then my expectation.

 

[Elandyll]

I thought Sony will be complacent but look like they were less complacent then my expectation.

Lol

 

[prag16]

[3DS] 520K
[PS4] 1430K
[WIU] 325K
[XB1] 1480K

Way the hell too optimistic on xbone, eh. Overestimated the effect of those $250 bundles I guess. Shit.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Just Dance > TR

c'mon now.

Just Dance is the Wests Idol game

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

I wasn't optimistic enough?^^ Great feeling, that is. Save for my so off its sad WiiU prediction, but two out of three over performing is fine^^

 

[Ty4on]

I wasn't optimistic enough?^^ Great feeling, that is. Save for my so off its sad WiiU prediction, but two out of three over performing is fine^^

I shouldn't say much, if I had made a prediction it would have been laughably bad, but what did the WiiU have that could have boosted sales from last year's November? (Where it did ~240k)

The WiiU tends to have a much bigger December boost and I think it surprised some last year even though the same happened in 2013. I know it's because the audience is mainly children, but I wonder if the reason Nov is so low is because parents don't know and buy it at the last minute (while they know with XB1/PS4 and get it BF) or because most people buying BF get it for themselves. I now it's probably a mix of the two, but I wonder which is the dominant. I'm guessing it's the second one because of how big December has been historically.

The huge PS4 bump makes me wonder if we're seeing the 360 audience really (emphasis on really) shift over to the PS4. We've seen lots of this already, but last year we still had XB1 leading in Nov and CoD sales. If that's the case I think we should start seeing the PS4 leading in CoD sales.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

I shouldn't say much, if I had made a prediction it would have been laughably bad, but what did the WiiU have that could have boosted sales from last year's November? (Where it did ~240k)

The WiiU tends to have a much bigger December boost and I think it surprised some last year even though the same happened in 2013. I know it's because the audience is mainly children, but I wonder if the reason Nov is so low is because parents don't know and buy it at the last minute (while they know with XB1/PS4 and get it BF) or because most people buying BF get it for themselves. I now it's probably a mix of the two, but I wonder which is the dominant. I'm guessing it's the second one because of how big December has been historically.

The huge PS4 bump makes me wonder if we're seeing the 360 audience really (emphasis on really) shift over to the PS4. We've seen lots of this already, but last year we still had XB1 leading in Nov and CoD sales. If that's the case I think we should start seeing the PS4 leading in CoD sales.

Last year's Black Friday deal was atrocious; Mario Cart and a wii wheel for 30USD MORE than the standard bundle. At least this year they lowered the price and put in two games, so I assumed at least a little growth, but looks like WiiU already peaked in the US...

 

[noobie]

Oy. So.

Closing in on Christmas. We survived the Black Friday madness, woo! And then now Sony and then suddenly MS throw the same damn deals back into the fray. Sigh.

Someone asked me how things went after the price drops came off post-Black Friday. Well, basically, the same thing as always. People cursing themselves for not pouncing on pricing, and then trying to haggle, but still buying stuff anyway, and accepting the deals as they were. Though, of course, it wasn't very long on the PS4 side before the price fell again, and we saw a rush of people coming in with receipts to price match. Nice of us, eh?

So. Star Wars fever is starting to really heat up. The discount including those Star Wars bundles... damn, man. I'm sure folks remember my Black Friday comments being somewhat quizzical on why they only dropped the NDC bundles, when it seemed like there was so many of the Star Wars ones ready to go, in store or in the back end... Well, they're in stores now. And they seem to be doing well. Very well.

Clarifying that: These are the regular ones, not the limited bundles. But damn we've got a lot of those fuckin' Star Wars bundles. Apparently they've also increased the advertising? People are mentioning lots of commercials (I don't watch TV, so I don't really know, but apparently it's all over the place).

XB1s were still selling okay, but were struggling to show the same kind of umph, though I'm sure this sudden price match will turn up the heat a good bit. I do have to wonder how much it will intensify things though, since it's just a price match and not a true marketing push like what customer's are mentioning. We're seeing Star Wars + Christmas madness, and it's getting more than a little chaotic.

What about you Cornbread, you out there?

(My store was not happy about my trip to the Playstation Experience, but hey, my one fuckin' vacation, they survived one weekend, hah, despite the normal blackout on vacation days. I just wasn't allowed to take the time as paid days off. Cheap bastards.)

Any further update.. which is winning XB1 and PS4?

 

[allan-bh]

3DS sold 350k, so now we have all numbers, donny can post the results.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

When do we usually get the rankings list? Not that I want to see how far down I've slipped this month, but... I'm still curious who won.

 

[slavesnyder]

With these high numbers and, logically, high differences in results and faults, this month will change a lot in the rankings. It's the playoffs for our game, too...

 

[Ryng_tolu]

[PS4] 1,539,000
[XB1] 1,296,000
[3DS] 350,000
[WIU] 240,000

 

[Primethius]

With these high numbers and, logically, high differences in results and faults, this month will change a lot in the rankings. It's the playoffs for our game, too...

...and I got played like a fiddle.

 

[Blanquito]

$299 PS4 bundles (both Battlefront and NDC) sold out on Amazon? Appears so. Replenishment on Dec 24 for NDC, 25 for BF

 

[mejin]

$299 PS4 bundles (both Battlefront and NDC) sold out on Amazon? Appears so. Replenishment on Dec 24 for NDC, 25 for BF

Promo will go till Dec 19 and there are no more units for Amazon? Why?

 

[spatenfloot]

Promo will go till Dec 19 and there are no more units for Amazon? Why?

Probably allotted more for retail stores.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

$299 PS4 bundles (both Battlefront and NDC) sold out on Amazon? Appears so. Replenishment on Dec 24 for NDC, 25 for BF

Star Wars is back. I guess they are selling them as fast as they get them, because they have been in and out of stock a couple times a day since Monday.

Edit: ....and now NDC bundle is back too. Something something complacent something something.

Edit: Dang, that was fast. Sold out again. People want themselves some PS4. Or Sony is complacent. One of those two things.

Edit: Back in stock again?!?! Will Sony's complacent ways know no bounds?!

Edit: "In stock" from a 3rd part seller at 350USD. This is complacent Sony's final form...

Edit: Back in Stock on Star Wars US opening night?!?! Nothing stops this complacent train!

 

[freefornow]

[PS4] 1,539,000
[XB1] 1,296,000
[3DS] 350,000
[WIU] 240,000

Under by 615K. Thats gonna hurt my ranking!

 

[Darth Smurf X]

In August.

It's been real, gang. See you in a year and a quarter.

Here are my revised predictions:
August - Sony (with the GameStop deal, they just eek one out)
September - Sony (Destiny, MGSV, Tearaway)
October - MS (Halo bundle trumps Nathan Drake HD)
November - Sony (Battlefront... that thing comes with 4 retro titles, Lara doesn't stand a chance)
December - MS (I think they'll have pull out some sweet last minute sale, but it'll be close)

2016 - Sony (you heard it here second)

I thought I had an early version of this with a Sony December win, but only with a price cut that hadn't been announced yet. I can't find it. I must've dreamt it.

But in early October, before September's numbers released, I made a slight edit:

September - Sony
October - MS
November - Sony
December - Sony

And that should just about do it for 2015. See you all in January for NPD 2016: Even More Interesting!

I'm standing by a Sony December victory.

 

[freefornow]

I'm standing by a Sony December victory.

It's hard to see anything but Sony for quite some time.

 

[donny2112]

3DS sold 350k, so now we have all numbers, donny can post the results.

Yea! (^_^)

NeoGAF Prediction Results - November 2015

Units

1. jroc74 - 285,000
2. wachie - 305,000
3. mejin - 320,000
4. sheamus - 345,000
5. Mr Swine - 367,000
6. Welfare - 384,000
7. Conduit - 395,000
7. Mass Effect - 395,000
9. FullMetaltech - 400,000
10. Cereal Enthusiast - 415,000
10. Demacabre - 415,000
12. Triggerhappytel - 420,000
13. Crimson_Gold - 423,000
13. devilsadvocat - 423,000
15. Duxxy3 - 435,000
16. Bioshocker - 440,000
17. orochi91 - 453,000
18. watdaeff4 - 465,000
19. Hockeymac18 - 470,000
20. Fat4all - 488,000
21. Las7 - 495,000
21. foxbeldin - 495,000
23. MisterMrMister - 505,000
24. JeffZero - 520,000
25. kyser73 - 533,000
26. ptuck874 - 542,000
27. Javin98 - 544,000
27. robo - 544,000
29. 1st Course - 545,000
29. Cow Goes Moo - 545,000
29. GobFather - 545,000
29. Pillville - 545,000
29. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 545,000
29. ghost4soul - 545,000
35. prag16 - 548,000
36. Jigorath - 550,000
37. Serenity - 555,000
38. CorporateClown - 565,000
39. Cornbread78 - 570,000
39. anexanhume - 570,000
39. theprodigy - 570,000
42. Bgamer90 - 575,000
43. Bitch Pudding - 595,000
43. damisa - 595,000
43. gtj1092 - 595,000
46. ascii42 - 599,000
47. Final Verdict - 600,000
48. AgentP - 603,000
49. 5Twist - 620,000
50. biglittleps - 625,000
51. ninjabat - 626,000
52. Ombala - 629,000
53. orfax - 635,000
54. GAF_Agg - 640,200
55. Mister Megative - 644,000
55. Tratorn - 644,000
57. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 645,000
57. harrisk954 - 645,000
59. TheCarrotKiller - 650,000
59. Zero-Crescent - 650,000
61. Sharpeye - 656,000
62. astrogamer - 660,000
63. Stilton Disco - 662,000
64. EventHorizon - 665,000
64. MisterR - 665,000
64. OleGunner - 665,000
64. OnionPowder - 665,000
64. Ryng_Tolu - 665,000
64. madp0k - 665,000
70. BlackBuzzard - 670,000
71. RibMan - 673,000
72. DriftingSpirit - 675,000
72. andy_lhc - 675,000
72. dakun - 675,000
75. 3rdamention - 677,000
76. Bruno MB - 685,000
76. Tsosie - 685,000
78. Elandyll - 695,000
78. HocusPocus - 695,000
80. allan-bh - 700,000
81. Sterok - 705,000
82. GamerJM - 710,000
83. wtshaolin - 713,000
84. Jack The Nipper - 714,000
85. KillerMan91 - 715,000
86. Road - 723,000
87. Regiruler - 725,000
88. Tivor Tontomo - 728,000
89. jayu26 - 733,000
90. doicare - 760,000
91. Darth Smurf X - 765,000
91. pip77 - 765,000
93. noobie - 770,000
94. elite09 - 775,000
95. sjagolinzer - 776,000
96. skedar897 - 779,000
97. yukianderson - 781,000
98. HanzSnubSnub - 785,000
98. Kralamoonard - 785,000
100. archnemesis - 795,000
101. RexNovis - 797,000
102. panda-zebra - 801,000
103. Seldomly Jambon - 804,000
104. jjonez18 - 804,145
105. Death2494 - 805,000
105. bigedole - 805,000
105. freefornow - 805,000
108. ConfusedGamer - 808,000
109. Jallopy - 820,000
109. donny2112 - 820,000
111. Gurish - 825,000
111. Megadragon15 - 825,000
111. Rand6 - 825,000
114. ferrasvansen - 840,000
115. Hammer24 - 845,000
115. Kill3r7 - 845,000
115. OfficerRaichu15 - 845,000
115. Shambalakan - 845,000
119. Asd202 - 850,000
119. Pachter - 850,000
121. rokkerkory - 865,000
122. OlgerO - 873,000
123. Get_craycray - 875,000
124. CosmicQueso - 885,000
124. The Last One - 885,000
126. Papagaio - 890,000
127. Elios83 - 895,000
127. PhineasRed - 895,000
127. twinturbo2 - 895,000
130. RespectThySole - 915,000
131. DrWong - 917,000
132. Chobel - 920,000
132. Shenmue - 920,000
134. Shizza - 925,000
134. pitseleh - 925,000
136. Rodin - 930,000
137. Dinjooh - 935,000
137. Raylan - 935,000
139. Aceofspades - 940,000
140. Rymuth - 945,000
141. jbluzb - 950,000
142. NDP_Mulcair - 975,000
143. Brew124 - 985,000
143. Tubie - 985,000
145. slavesnyder - 991,000
146. RK128 - 995,000
147. 1.21Gigawatts - 1,025,000
147. madstarr12 - 1,025,000
149. ZachzOOming - 1,028,000
150. Primethius - 1,030,000
151. Ushay - 1,040,000
152. Loudninja - 1,045,000
153. Castef - 1,095,000
154. Behlel - 1,105,000
155. anothertech - 1,107,000
156. bryanee - 1,110,000
157. Kayant - 1,132,000
158. NateDrake - 1,145,000
158. crinale - 1,145,000
160. jhmtehgamr20xx - 1,147,000
161. Stanng243 - 1,167,000
162. Jamix012 - 1,183,000
163. perfectchaos007 - 1,193,000
164. Prototype Viktor - 1,195,000
165. MasterSheen - 1,203,000
166. Angelus Errare - 1,210,000
167. rauelius - 1,224,937
168. Guymelef - 1,245,000
168. daniel77733 - 1,245,000
170. beast - 1,260,000
171. DieH@rd - 1,267,000
172. mushrambio - 1,460,000


Points

     November 2015                   Overall 2015 Top (9/11)
01.  jroc74                 113.38   donny2112              901.75
02.  wachie                 108.56   allan-bh               900.89
03.  mejin                  107.12   shinra-bansho          898.06
04.  sheamus                105.22   Road                   888.26
05.  Mr Swine               103.44   madp0k                 881.01
06.  Welfare                101.69   Welfare                880.17
07.  Mass Effect             99.41   jayu26                 875.63
08.  MisterR                 96.47   archnemesis            875.54
09.  CorporateClown          95.86   freefornow             873.58
10.  Jigorath                95.09   theprodigy             869.38
11.  MisterMrMister          94.87   Javin98                865.89
12.  watdaeff4               94.84   Tratorn                865.30
13.  Cornbread78             94.72   BlackBuzzard           860.57
14.  theprodigy              94.31   astrogamer             859.62
15.  OleGunner               94.17   Final Verdict          857.26
16.  Cereal Enthusiast       93.40   RexNovis               855.26
17.  Duxxy3                  93.05   doicare                853.03
18.  EventHorizon            92.88   CorporateClown         851.28
19.  biglittleps             92.82   michaelius             847.66
20.  DriftingSpirit          92.68   Chobel                 846.46
21.  ninjabat                92.65   Ombala                 845.75
22.  1st Course              92.52   KillerMan91            844.28
23.  ascii42                 92.18   Bruno MB               841.83
24.  dakun                   92.01   1st Course             840.00
25.  Bgamer90                91.93   skedar897              839.40
26.  ptuck874                91.87   Megadragon15           839.10
27.  5Twist                  91.55   Darth Smurf X          839.03
28.  FullMetaltech           91.51   noobie                 834.29
29.  orochi91                91.29   Trust me, I'm a PhD    833.35
30.  Javin98                 90.68   Rymuth                 832.93
31.  Death2494               90.19   jroc74                 829.05
32.  Bioshocker              89.51   TheCarrotKiller        827.37
33.  Serenity                89.39   Sangetsu-II            826.25
34.  jayu26                  89.24   wachie                 826.23
35.  foxbeldin               89.24   slavesnyder            822.10
36.  ConfusedGamer           89.11   5Twist                 822.10
37.  Ombala                  88.83   Pillville              820.44
38.  Road                    88.66   Kill3r7                815.88
39.  madp0k                  88.66   orfax                  815.18
40.  astrogamer              88.43   mejin                  814.78
41.  Tubie                   88.40   Asd202                 814.20
42.  Final Verdict           88.01   prag16                 811.99
43.  3rdamention             88.00   Zero-Crescent          811.13
44.  Chobel                  87.96   pitseleh               810.26
45.  PhineasRed              87.79   Elandyll               809.69
46.  Zero-Crescent           87.67   Prototype Viktor       803.49
47.  Darth Smurf X           87.59   Elios83                803.32
48.  Rand6                   87.45   jjonez18               803.19
49.  Tratorn                 87.43   Rand6                  799.86
50.  Sterok                  87.26   Kayant                 799.36

Congratulations, jroc74!

 

[Welfare]

Congratulations, jroc74!

#6 in Units is a lot better than the last 2 months, and I'm #6 in points.

Who ever will be in the top 5 by the end of the year will be interesting.

More people were off by >1m then people were off by <500k.

 

[Chobel]

132. Chobel - 920,000 units
44. Chobel - 87.96 points

I guess I should stop being pessimistic.

Congrats jroc74 and as always thanks donny for doing this!

 

[allan-bh]

Congratulation jroc74.

Terrible month for me, but somehow I'm in 2nd overall very close to donny. Last round will be exciting.

 

[gtj1092]

Top 50!!!!

It's all about the small victories in life.

 

[Conduit]

7th place. Not bad!

 

[freefornow]

Congrats jroc74. As always, thanks donny2112.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Back in the top 30! Optimism for the win^^ ...but not ever in the top 50 for points... I need to end this year right! Can't let Noobie beat when we are neck in neck!

Thanks again, Donny, for all your work and see you guys/gals in a few weeks^^

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Congrats jroc74