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[justchris]

Every NPD thread it's the same. Why are people still arguing about the Wii!? It's the clear cut leader of this generation, nothing anybody does can change that. D:

Oh well that's not true. Nintendo can still royally screw things up. I mean, clearly they're going to have to try really hard to screw things up now, as this most recent holiday drought proved. But if anyone can grab hold of failure from within sight of heaven, it's Sega. Nintendo is a close second, though.

Now, please note that I'm not saying that this makes casual games "better" by some objective standard, I'm simply saying that empirical evidence suggests that it's actually more challenging to produce a big casual hit than it is a big hardcore hit. I'm pointing this out because Omar's argument earlier relies on Microsoft being capable of creating industry driving casual software, and I'd argue it's unlikely that they can, given that almost no one but Nintendo seems capable of doing so.

As even more proof of this, even Nintendo isn't infallible in their production. While not a failure, Wii Music definitely missed the bullseye that Wii Sports & Wii Fit thoroughly hammered. Whether a flaw in design or a flaw in marketing, Wii Music failed to garner the acclaim and attention of its predecessors.

As a counterargument, it may not be an issue of being more difficult, so much as it is an issue of core competency. Playing a guitar is no harder than playing a violin, yet a person who's been playing a violin the past 20 years is going to have difficulty the first time they put hands on a guitar. The problem may simply be one of resources, there simply doesn't exist enough developers competent in this area to go around?

 

[AniHawk]

The 360 should outsell the N64 in the States in the long run (it did about 20m). I'm guessing it'll wind up around 22-25m depending when next gen starts (and depending who starts it).

If the Wii keeps this up, it should outsell the PS2 in about half the time. At its current rate, it's only about 2.5 years off. Again, depends when the next gen starts and if it's simply still that popular years from now.

The PS3 is also doing much better now, especially for a $400 system. It's now doing about as well as the first Xbox did (it's a little behind), but better than the Gamecube. The real worrisome number is probably related to software.

 

[Epiphyte]

The 360 should outsell the N64 in the States in the long run (it did about 20m). I'm guessing it'll wind up around 22-25m depending when next gen starts (and depending who starts it).

If the Wii keeps this up, it should outsell the PS2 in about half the time. At its current rate, it's only about 2.5 years off. Again, depends when the next gen starts and if it's simply still that popular years from now.

The PS3 is also doing much better now, especially for a $400 system. It's now doing about as well as the first Xbox did (it's a little behind), but better than the Gamecube. The real worrisome number is probably related to software.

It would be a rather Pyrrhic victory if Sony ended up with another PSP in terms of software

 

[Burai]

I'm not too good at predicting, what's the expected impact of KZ2 on hardware sales?

I'd predict "absolutely nothing". It yet another game that Sony haven't bothered to advertise and the first game was so poor that I can't see anyone burned by that to be rushing out to drop $399 on hardware just for the sequel to the "most overhyped and underdelivering PS2 game since the Getaway".

Killzone 2 will sell to PS3 owners, but there's no chance it's going to shift significant hardware. You need to make a game an "event" to do that. And Sony just don't seem interested in spending that sort of money.

 

[Vinci]

As even more proof of this, even Nintendo isn't infallible in their production. While not a failure, Wii Music definitely missed the bullseye that Wii Sports & Wii Fit thoroughly hammered. Whether a flaw in design or a flaw in marketing, Wii Music failed to garner the acclaim and attention of its predecessors.

Here's a prediction: By the end of this generation, Wii Music will outsell any game on the PS3 worldwide. And no, you don't get to combine SKUs with the 360 version. I think this sucker's just a slow-burner compared to its big brothers.

 

[DarkMehm]

Consoles LTD:

PS2 - 43,736,000
Wii - 18,227,000
XBOX - 14,477,000
XBOX 360 - 14,206,000
GC - 11,832,000
PS3 - 7,006,000

thx creamsugar. Do you have DS and PSP LTDs by any chance?

 

[justchris]

Here's a prediction: By the end of this generation, Wii Music will outsell any game on the PS3 worldwide. And no, you don't get to combine SKUs with the 360 version. I think this sucker's just a slow-burner compared to its big brothers.

This may very possibly happen, but doesn't actually disprove my point.

 

[Vinci]

This may very possibly happen, but doesn't actually disprove my point.

It disproves your point when it does. This sort of software doesn't stop selling, not completely. Nintendo has proven that time and again. Considering some of their recent deals getting Wii Music in schools in various places throughout the States, I think it has a strong chance of growing 'by waggle-of-hand' and becoming a pretty huge deal.

It didn't get the acclaim some of the others have received because it's doing something entirely new, something innovative, in which the true score of how you've done is your own opinion. People, especially gamers, find this troublesome: We're accustomed to some kind of arbitrary guide of our skill and progress, not to mention Wii Music requires more time to truly understand and appreciate.

In other words, I think it's far too early to assess its impact. My opinion is, it's simply performing differently from the rest of the evergreen pack. Not worse necessarily, just differently.

 

[Burai]

It disproves your point when it does. This sort of software doesn't stop selling, not completely. Nintendo has proven that time and again. Considering some of their recent deals getting Wii Music in schools in various places throughout the States, I think it has a strong chance of growing 'by waggle-of-hand' and becoming a pretty huge deal.

It didn't get the acclaim some of the others have received because it's doing something entirely new, something innovative, in which the true score of how you've done is your own opinion. People, especially gamers, find this troublesome: We're accustomed to some kind of arbitrary guide of our skill and progress, not to mention Wii Music requires more time to truly understand and appreciate.

In other words, I think it's far too early to assess its impact. My opinion is, it's simply performing differently from the rest of the evergreen pack. Not worse necessarily, just differently.

Wow, you put Sony's usual NPD damage control into the shade with that!

Wii Music is a lost cause. Seriously. People saw it, laughed at it and moved on. There's no spark, there's no word of mouth, there's no slow burn. It's done.

Just because Touch Generations and Wii _____ games tend to have legs, doesn't mean that you can attribute a complete and total bomb to having "a different sort of legs".

 

[Log4Girlz]

:lol Indeed! It is a weird feeling, isn't it, to be discussing whether Sony is just hurting, or keeling over? And this from a guy who's been through all the ups and downs. During the PS2 era, it really did seem like the industry had matured and cemented with Sony on top. Turns out it's just as volatile as ever.

If you would have told me in the tail end of gamecube's tragic life that in just a few short years Nintendo would basically re-release that failed console with waggle controls and it would destroy the competition I would have laughed until it hurt. I'm truly shocked an amazed that Sony behaved in such an arrogant fashion...what a turn-around.

 

[water_wendi]

If you would have told me in the tail end of gamecube's tragic life that in just a few short years Nintendo would basically re-release that failed console with waggle controls and it would destroy the competition I would have laughed until it hurt. I'm truly shocked an amazed that Sony behaved in such an arrogant fashion...what a turn-around.

Even as early as 2003 Sony was being a tad arrogant about things.. "The console war was over.. and boy was it ever over" "Theres a place you can find the other video game consoles.. and that happens to be in the rear view mirror" Kaz Hirai, E3 2003. Shit-talking like this makes it almost seem like a karma of some kind.

 

[Coolio McAwesome]

Wow, you put Sony's usual NPD damage control into the shade with that!

Wii Music is a lost cause. Seriously. People saw it, laughed at it and moved on. There's no spark, there's no word of mouth, there's no slow burn. It's done.

Just because Touch Generations and Wii _____ games tend to have legs, doesn't mean that you can attribute a complete and total bomb to having "a different sort of legs".

I think you are wrong about Wii Music. It sold 81,000 in the October NPD and wasn't on the top 20. The following month, it climbed into the top 10 with another 297,000 sold. It sales improved significantly in December with another 487,000 units sold. The game has sold nearly a million copies in the US alone thus far, and I think it's certainly possible for the game to reach two million in it's lifetime (again, in the US alone). While Wii Music didn't see the same level of success as other Wii-branded titles did, it's quite a stretch to call the game "a complete and total bomb." There is no shortage of game developers who wish they could have a "bomb" like Wii Music.

 

[Opiate]

I think you are wrong about Wii Music. It sold 81,000 in the October NPD and wasn't on the top 20. The following month, it climbed into the top 10 with another 297,000 sold. It sales improved significantly in December with another 487,000 units sold. The game has sold nearly a million copies in the US alone thus far, and I think it's certainly possible for the game to reach two million in it's lifetime (again, in the US alone). While Wii Music didn't see the same level of success as other Wii-branded titles did, it's quite a stretch to call the game "a complete and total bomb." There are no shortage of game developers who wish they could have a "bomb" like Wii Music.

It's not a "bomb," but Iwata has publicly called the game's reception thus far "disappointing."

The game's pedigree is a long list of amazing blockbuster hits that changed the industry. Against that backdrop, 2 million or so worldwide is disappointing, yes.

 

[Joe211]

If you think this is bad, imagine the pain we felt last night when F5 F5 F5 got you a new post about every five minutes instead of five posts every half-minute.

T'was a quiet NPD due to continued Nintendomination, little bad that could be said about 360 and the fact that the Sony squad is down to about three active posters.

It's been rough.

Sony Squad?
Grow up kid

So all other titles but 1 selling under 100k (I could probably put under 90 due to the fact that WaW is at #11) isn't horrid or very bad? No matter how you spin it the software sales are in a very bad state right now. Once you get past a certain level it doesn't matter if you sink any lower.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=351161

PLATFORM NET REVENUE MIX Q3 09 (Millions)
360 265
PS3 217
Wii 172
PS2 137
PC 119
DS 115
Wireless 48
PSP 35

It seems EA manage to make money on the PS3 so I don't know what you and DeaconKnowledge are talking about

 

[starship]

6.997 to be exact from early in the thread, but thx for the original Xbox numbers.

creamsugar's LTD sales of X360 is 40k more than what posted earlier in this thread, but you only noticed 10k difference in LTD sales of PS3?

 

[Gallagher]

Hail to Iwata!

 

[Luckyman]

In an age where the average game costs $20 million to create (and that's admittingly being pretty conservative), selling under 100k isn't exactly acceptable by any means. The DS can get away with this because most titles are either very low budget or have Japan as their main focus, the games on the PS3 are anything but those things.

Consider these 3 things:

1) Budget for games on certain platforms

2) Recent releases and their expectations

3) Comparison to other consoles moving the software of said game

So which game released last month were you expecting to sell more then 100k on PS3? Compared to 360 should about zero +-Skate2.

 

[HocusPocus]

Awesome 360 numbers given the economy. Nintendo Wii is just amazing with its sales.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So which game released last month were you expecting to sell more then 100k on PS3? Compared to 360 should about zero +-Skate2.

A game doesn't have to be released in a month to sell more than 100K. Last year PS3 had at least one January game over 100K: Call of Duty 4 at 140K.

 

[John Dunbar]

So did DS have shortages last January or has the demand just increased?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So did DS have shortages last January or has the demand just increased?

I think both DS and Wii were drained and short on supply (more than usual) last January. For each it was the only month of the year under 300K. Actually, it was also their only month under 400K, so it was a low point by far.

 

[Gaborn]

Sony Squad?
Grow up kid




http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=351161


It seems EA manage to make money on the PS3 so I don't know what you and DeaconKnowledge are talking about

Yes, EA made so much money on the PS3 that 50% of their games this year are going to be on Wii.

 

[starmud]

majesco is extremely lucky how nintendo has played out this gen @___@ lol

 

[magiustra]

Wii Music is a lost cause. Seriously. People saw it, laughed at it and moved on. There's no spark, there's no word of mouth, there's no slow burn. It's done.

I don't think so: in Italy it seems to became more and more popular, as you can see here:

http://www.cultura.comune.parma.it/...p_data=11-02-2009&p_area=CULTURA&p_cat=307315

(sorry, it's in italian)

on february, 19, there will be a concert at the Auditorium Paganini (in Parma) with real musician like Guo Yue (Peter Gabriel), Giovanni Amighetti (Fred Frith) and Angela Benelli (Morricone) and Wii Music players, playing songs "composed" with the Nintendo game like those "written" by J.J.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP4sHsn0mlA

I think that Wii Music will keep selling and selling just because people will discover it in so many "strange" ways

R.

 

[farnham]

Wow a game that sold nearly a million is a flop now..?

Sure its kind of a shock that both animal crossing CF and Wii Music is not on the Top 10 of the Wii chart.. but still.. you can hardly call Wii music a flop

 

[Stumpokapow]

Wow a game that sold nearly a million is a flop now..?

if final fantasy xiii sold a million units would it be a flop yes or no

 

[farnham]

if final fantasy xiii sold a million units would it be a flop yes or no

so you are seriously comparing the development costs and the name value of final fantasy XIII and Wii Music..? :lol :lol

 

[freddy]

The lumping of the Wii ____ titled games into some sort of sales group is ridiculous. Wii Chess sold over 8 million too did it? Get a grip. Wii Music has sold almost 2.5 million worldwide in a matter of months. It's a mega hit no matter how you look at it.
Calling it a flop is just plain stupid.

 

[Cipherr]

if final fantasy xiii sold a million units would it be a flop yes or no

Thats a ridiculous comparison, even considering Wii Music is part of the Wii line. FF and Wii music shouldnt be compared in any way. We all know not every game of the Wii ____ line has set the world on fire. I can barely even remember Wii chess charting anywhere at all.

It didnt light up the charts but you would be completely off your rocker to call Wii Music a complete bomb. Thats just a really stupid thing to say when its at 2m worldwide a few months after release.

 

[Captain Smoker]

The lumping of the Wii ____ titled games into some sort of sales group is ridiculous. Wii Chess sold over 8 million too did it? Get a grip. Wii Music has sold almost 2.5 million worldwide in a matter of months. It's a mega hit no matter how you look at it.
Calling it a flop is just plain stupid.

No, I doubt that it managed even 300.000 or something like that.

 

[Cipherr]

No, I doubt that it managed even 300.000 or something like that.

That was his point I think :lol That the Wii line hasn't been perfect at all.

 

[thestopsign]

if final fantasy xiii sold a million units would it be a flop yes or no

No doubt it would be, but that would be comparing apples to oranges here. Wii Music might be a quarter of the cost of Final Fantasy XIII. Even then, Wii Music is more likely to sell well off the charts than any Final Fantasy game. As we have seen, Final Fantasy games tend to be more front-loaded in every market then the Wii titles. So yeah, apples and oranges.

 

[Joe211]

Yes, EA made so much money on the PS3 that 50% of their games this year are going to be on Wii.

If they have to move their production to the Wii that means 360 software sales are not really great too :lol

This is what you should have said:

Yes, EA made so much money on the 360/PS3 that 50% of their games this year are going to be on Wii.

 

[Stumpokapow]

so you are seriously comparing the development costs and the name value of final fantasy XIII and Wii Music..? :lol :lol

erm, no, you dolt.

No one is saying Wii Music isn't profitable. No one is saying that at all. It could have sold far fewer copies and it'd still be profitable.

Whether or not it's disappointing depends on Nintendo's expectations. That's the point of my comparison. Regardless of budget, companies expect a certain number of copies to be sold, and it's totally conceivable that any number of projects, Wii Music included, could be a disappointment at a million copies sold.

... which is precisely why Nintendo themselves categorized Wii Music as a disappointment in terms of sales.

No doubt it would be, but that would be comparing apples to oranges here. Wii Music might be a quarter of the cost of Final Fantasy XIII.

it's not apples and oranges. it's not my fault people thought i was comparing cost. I'm not a black bear so I like to think people are aware that I have enough brains not to compare the two on cost.

It's about expectations. Which Wii Music did not meet.

Now, if we want to talk about off-chart sales and subsequent legs, fine. We'll wait and see, I guess. But for now, with the current sales it has racked up, Wii Music remains a disappointment to Nintendo.

 

[Wolves Evolve]

No, I doubt that it managed even 300.000 or something like that.

My god, are we so distorted that a version of Chess selling 300,000 is considered anything less than amazing?

'Hey, Tony, we're giving you Wii Chess to develop."
"Okay, whats my budget?"
"Well, Tony, its Chess, how much time and money do you need?"
"... Give me a monkey with a funny hat and a weekend in a nice hotel. I'll code it myself."

 

[markatisu]

Wii Music is a lost cause. Seriously. People saw it, laughed at it and moved on. There's no spark, there's no word of mouth, there's no slow burn. It's done.

Wow you are dense, Nintendo just partnered with the National Association for Music Education to begin rolling out Wii Music to schools across the US and just this week there were several profiles on MSNBC and in USA Today which interviewed music teachers who are now using it to get their kids interested in music as a career.

No word of mouth my ass

 

[Captain Smoker]

/EDIT, ah ok. XD

 

[freddy]

I recall Nintendo being disappointed in sales of Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess as well. Time to pull the plug on both franchises?

 

[Gaborn]

If they have to move their production to the Wii that means 360 software sales are not really great too :lol

This is what you should have said:

That is also accurate, but considering your mention of net revenue as some implication for the PS3's success I chose to address the PS3, since that's all you did. By the same token your comment about the EA's revenue on the PS3 would also have applied for the 360

 

[Holy Order Sol]

WII FIT (WII) 777K

 

[BishopLamont]

if final fantasy xiii sold a million units would it be a flop yes or no

A million for FF XIII within 4 months of it's release in the USA is bad because of it's front-loaded nature. A million in this time-frame for Wii Music is excellent because it still hasn't finished selling. Of course it's a flop if you compare it to the other Wii __ games.

Whether or not it's disappointing depends on Nintendo's expectations. That's the point of my comparison. Regardless of budget, companies expect a certain number of copies to be sold, and it's totally conceivable that any number of projects, Wii Music included, could be a disappointment at a million copies sold.

Source on where Nintendo says its sales is disappointing? Because the only thing I've seen is that Nintendo and Iwata himself expected the game to start off slowly.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

Sony Squad?
Grow up kid

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=351161

It seems EA manage to make money on the PS3 so I don't know what you and DeaconKnowledge are talking about

In what way does EA's Q3 worldwide platform revenue mix prove that PS3 software sales in the US are hunky-dory?

If they have to move their production to the Wii that means 360 software sales are not really great too

This is what you should have said:

"Yes, EA made so much money on the 360/PS3 that 50% of their games this year are going to be on Wii."

Gaborn was directly responding to your comment regarding PS3 software sales.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Source on where Nintendo says its sales is disappointing? Because the only thing I've seen is that Nintendo and Iwata himself expected the game to start off slowly.

"I agree that Wii Music, as of now, has not achieved its true potential"

"It is unfortunate that “Wii Music” was not immediately appealing enough to some consumers, but it simply might have not been the right game for them."

"Currently, I think that the appeal of “Wii Music” has not yet been fully conveyed and accepted by those who could be interested."

"On the other hand, the comment that it is difficult for a software to become popular unless it is easy to be understood is right on target. Something good can spread when a cycle is born where people who have hands-on experience can immediately understand its appeal, easily explain the positive experience they had to those around them, who then spread that information to the others. Nintendo was blessed with certain products that created this positive cycle, which has made Nintendo what it is today. In that sense, I feel like we need to reevaluate why the software (“Wii Music”) has not been able to clear that hurdle."

(Specific to Japan
"At the end of last year, Nintendo launched two Wii titles, “Animal Crossing” and “Wii Music,” in hopes that the Japanese consumers would appreciate them and revitalize the Wii market in Japan. Our efforts have not lived up to our expectation."

"So, what happened at the end of last year in Japan was simply that it did not go as we had planned. To generate strong sales, we need to effectively communicate Nintendo’s messages to our consumers."


Again, no one thinks Wii Music is an unqualified absolute failure. It's clearly profitable. It clearly sold more copies than most software. Wii Music will clearly have better legs than many titles. Nintendo is clearly still pushing Wii Music. I don't think ANYONE has contention with any of those claims.

... But when the executive of a major corporation repeatedly emphasizes and apologizes for not communicating a product properly and it not living up to expectations--that's a failure. Executives generally say "STUFF IS GOING GREAT1!!!" even when things bomb. To actually soberly admit a partial failure means things really didn't go the way they were supposed to.

 

[AzureNightmare]

I'm new to doing this so please go easy on me but...
Nintendo:

Microsoft:

Sony:

 

[freddy]

Wii Music is a lost cause. Seriously. People saw it, laughed at it and moved on. There's no spark, there's no word of mouth, there's no slow burn. It's done.

Just because Touch Generations and Wii _____ games tend to have legs, doesn't mean that you can attribute a complete and total bomb to having "a different sort of legs".

Just in case people didn't see it.

 

[Captain Smoker]

:lol :lol

 

[Joe211]

That is also accurate, but considering your mention of net revenue as some implication for the PS3's success I chose to address the PS3, since that's all you did. By the same token your comment about the EA's revenue on the PS3 would also have applied for the PS3.

I thought the 360 was successful in every way hardware and software sales?
You're telling EA the biggest publisher in the videogame industry can't make more money on the 360 than the PS3?
Now that's interesting since people in this thread are telling us how bad software is selling on the PS3.

 

[thefro]

Dovetailing with Evlar's point, I think it's worth noting that empirical evidence suggests that the games we think of as "casual," with Wii Sports and Wii Fit being headliners, are apparently much more difficult to make than "hardcore" games, contrary to popular belief.

Well, Nintendo's one of the only players still around that made "casual" hits back in the day... like this one.

The accessibility of Wii games is the same thing arcade games had back in their heyday... just without the quarter-munching difficulty curve.

Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart Wii would all be hit arcade games with some tweaking.

The concept for Guitar Hero and Rock Band already was a hit arcade game in Japan.

The key to cashing in on the Wii is to take your accessible arcade game concepts, tone down the difficulty curve and add some depth.

 

[SovanJedi]

I think all Stumpy meant was that a statement like "a million units sold for a game is a flop now?" is shortsighted when applied to every single game.

Of course, maybe farnham didn't intend it to be a sweeping comment on games in general, so maybe we'll put it down to crossed wires. Tomato, tomah-to.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I think all Stumpy meant was that a statement like "a million units sold for a game is a flop now?" is shortsighted when applied to every single game.

Yep. That's basically my whole point. Games are "flops" relative to expectations. Expectations are often but not always linked to budgets. Plenty of games have expectations higher than a million (including, I'd wager, Wii Music based on Iwata's comments) and they would be disappointments at a million sold.