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[JJConrad]

Absolutely ridiculous. It's possible, but only slightly so. The odd's are better for it hitting 60M than < 30M.

You're basing it off of how badly it's selling at $599 (and higher in the UK, lower in Japan) for it's entire lifecycle.

Crazy.



Here you completely went off the deep end.

There seems to be this notion that Nintendo and MS just rolled over and Gamecube and Xbox automatically sold 20-25 million systems. Both companies pushed their systems hard with pricing, bundles, and marketting. They didn't let their systems "fail" either.

I think that it is going to be impossible for the 360 and the PS3 to both sell more than 30 million this generation. One will pull away from the other or they both will stagnate. Right now... both are very weak posistions. Price drops have never shown to cause permenant sales growth and usually benefit the system that is already selling the best more than the others. This industry is driven by image, the longer these trends last the harder it will be to reverse them.

 

[DayShallCome]

Was the GC the cheapest next gen movie player? Don't think so.

People WILL be interested in the PS3, even if it's only as a BR player when it hits 200 in a couple of years. By then HD adoption will be huge, the PS3 will be a low priced BR player that also has a ton of cool HD games.

I don't even own a PS3 (360 owner here) but I know then when it drops in price I will have to get one for this alone. People thinking the PS3 is lost really don't see the big picture I think.

Neither is PS3.

 

[Diffense]

Funny that I called the current state of affairs 9 months ago...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3316352&postcount=84

It's not reaally that surprising at all, except to those who believed that sony's dominance is a law of nature.

Most of the arguments in this thread are really 'lame' by the way.
They make my head hurt.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

At that point i feel the PS3 and its software will start to sell pretty well (on par with competition until their new system is released), but IMO anyone expecting a full on BLOWOUT is reaching pretty hard.

The way i feel it will turn out is that the Wii will continue selling in the range that it is right now (probably a little less), the 360 will pick up after a price drop and start to sell near Wii amounts, and later on when PS3 drops in price the PS3 will be selling pretty much equal to Wii numbers. All 3 consoles will be selling well at the end of this gen, but because the PS3 dropped their price later than other consoles (im speculating on this), they will be behind in actual consoles sold, but not in month-by-month sales. There won't be no EXPLOSION OF SALES from any of them, and the software libraries of them will all be pretty diverse and plentiful.

I think that none of the consoles this gen deserves to "die", and none of them will really "die" at all. I hope that there is a more balanced market this time around, and not a repeat of last gen. All three consoles have unique strengths, and they should all be rewarded for their efforts with good games all around.

But of course devs, fanboys, and NeoGAF doesn't think that way so my words are probably wasted.

"PS3 IS TEH DOOM3D LOLZ"
"360 IS SHOOTER CONSOLE LOLZ"
"WII IS KILLING GAMING LOLZ"

So basically you´re predicting that in the U.S. Wii will sell about 40M, 360 about 35M, and PS3 about 30M. LOL

 

[Kosma]

I think some of you miss the point that BR =/ DVD.

Sony is the only company that has the rights to BR, with DVD other companies could make cheap DVD players. With BR it all must be approved and licensed by Sony.

If they want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, it will be.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

If they (Sony) want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, BR will fail miserably.

Fixed that for ya.

 

[Oblivion]

Absolutely ridiculous. It's possible, but only slightly so. The odd's are better for it hitting 60M than < 30M.

You're basing it off of how badly it's selling at $599 (and higher in the UK, lower in Japan) for it's entire lifecycle.

Crazy.

.....

What the hell leads you to believe that?

 

[Jocchan]

I think some of you miss the point that BR =/ DVD.

Sony is the only company that has the rights to BR, with DVD other companies could make cheap DVD players. With BR it all must be approved and licensed by Sony.

If they want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, it will be.

What?

 

[Link]

I think some of you miss the point that BR =/ DVD.

Sony is the only company that has the rights to BR, with DVD other companies could make cheap DVD players. With BR it all must be approved and licensed by Sony.

If they want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, it will be.

That's got to be some of the stupidest logic I've read in a while. Do you people think about what you type at all? Seriously, comments like this get me physically angry.

 

[Threi]

So basically you´re predicting that in the U.S. Wii will sell about 40M, 360 about 35M, and PS3 about 30M. LOL

Yeah...no.

I am predicting that the end result of the consoles (unless they get terminated at completely different times) will be the difference between them for how ever long it takes for the price to be within mainstream range (sub $200)

So if the Wii garners a 10mil lead by the time PS3 reaches $200, and a 5mil lead on the 360 by the time it reaches $200, then yeah i expect it to sell around those numbers. Could be a lot more, could be less. I think sales will be a bit more even this time around because the consoles are more different than last gen, so a some of the sales are independent of the competition.

 

[jman2050]

I think some of you miss the point that BR =/ DVD.

Sony is the only company that has the rights to BR, with DVD other companies could make cheap DVD players. With BR it all must be approved and licensed by Sony.

If they want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, it will be.

that sure worked for UMD...

If Sony wants Blu-Ray to have any success in the long run, they will NOT cannibalize other players for the sake of their precious game system.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

There is some massively stupid shit in here.

 

[dammitmattt]

At that point i feel the PS3 and its software will start to sell pretty well (on par with competition until their new system is released), but IMO anyone expecting a full on BLOWOUT is reaching pretty hard.

The way i feel it will turn out is that the Wii will continue selling in the range that it is right now (probably a little less), the 360 will pick up after a price drop and start to sell near Wii amounts, and later on when PS3 drops in price the PS3 will be selling pretty much equal to Wii numbers. All 3 consoles will be selling well at the end of this gen, but because the PS3 dropped their price later than other consoles (im speculating on this), they will be behind in actual consoles sold, but not in month-by-month sales. There won't be no EXPLOSION OF SALES from any of them, and the software libraries of them will all be pretty diverse and plentiful.

I think that none of the consoles this gen deserves to "die", and none of them will really "die" at all. I hope that there is a more balanced market this time around, and not a repeat of last gen. All three consoles have unique strengths, and they should all be rewarded for their efforts with good games all around.

But of course devs, fanboys, and NeoGAF doesn't think that way so my words are probably wasted.

"PS3 IS TEH DOOM3D LOLZ"
"360 IS SHOOTER CONSOLE LOLZ"
"WII IS KILLING GAMING LOLZ"

I basically agree, although I think that more separation will occur either between the Wii and the other two, or the 360 and the PS3 as they are battling for second.

 

[MrPing1000]

I think some of you miss the point that BR =/ DVD.

Sony is the only company that has the rights to BR, with DVD other companies could make cheap DVD players. With BR it all must be approved and licensed by Sony.

If they want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, it will be.

Wouldn't that be counterproductive? They want BR to succeed, you don't do that by purposely narrowing its availability.

 

[Threi]

I basically agree, although I think that more separation will occur either between the Wii and the other two, or the 360 and the PS3 as they are battling for second.

Well of course, the separation is what is up for debate, and what i have no clue about. But i do feel they will be selling at around the same rate when all 3 are sub-$200. Unless there is some unprecedented miracle/disaster (depending on how you look on it) :lol

 

[davepoobond]

I think some of you miss the point that BR =/ DVD.

Sony is the only company that has the rights to BR, with DVD other companies could make cheap DVD players. With BR it all must be approved and licensed by Sony.

If they want the PS3 to be the stanard BR player, it will be.

not exactly.

at the very least, they developed it in conjunction with Philips. Not to mention there's a whole Blu-Ray Forum or whatever

 

[WasteLand Soldier]

Stand alone BD players are going to get cheaper much faster than the PS3 does.

if ps3 sold 81k in a month and is the cheapest BR player, how many standalone BR players do you think sold? i think that kinda puts this sh*tty HD war into perspective

 

[Gekkonidae]

if ps3 sold 81k in a month and is the cheapest BR player, how many standalone BR players do you think sold? i think that kinda puts this sh*tty HD war into perspective

PS3 is no longer the cheepest BR player.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Personally I think the majority of Wii buyers will maybe buy 2 or 3 games a year.

If they did, that would be average or above average. Remember that even popular long-lasting consoles don't tend to get much beyond 10 games sold per system.

It might just be, that right now, we are mainly seeing GC owners and Nintendo Fans jumping ship to the Wii at a faster rate than usual.

As I've answered before to this, I don't know why they'd be jumping on any faster than before. The higher price should be a deterrent; by the time GCN had sold as many systems as Wii now has, its userbase was a mixture of $200 and $150 purchasers.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

Well of course, the separation is what is up for debate, and what i have no clue about. But i do feel they will be selling at around the same rate when all 3 are sub-$200. Unless there is some unprecedented miracle/disaster (depending on how you look on it) :lol

The reason I laughed earlier is that you´re completely wrong here. It would take something unprecedented to cause your prediction to come true, not the other way around.

By the time PS3 drops to $200 it will be in a distant last place, the (backwards compatable) PS4 will have already been announced, and incredibly successful Wii will sell for $100 with a far more commercail lineup (in terms of old, new, and future games). Expecting PS3 to sell as well as Wii on a monthly basis at that point is like expecting GC to sell as much hardware as PS2 this June.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Heh. Whatever else is going on in this thread, I'm just happy to see Command & Conquer 3 post decent numbers.

 

[AstroLad]

Heh. Whatever else is going on in this thread, I'm just happy to see Command & Conquer 3 post decent numbers.

Yeah, the number kind of surprised me. I guess there is a market for this stuff on consoles after all. Someone alert the PC Defense Force.

 

[Link]

if ps3 sold 81k in a month and is the cheapest BR player, how many standalone BR players do you think sold? i think that kinda puts this sh*tty HD war into perspective

That's assuming that everyone in the market for a Blu-ray player is picking up a PS3 simply because it's the cheapest. Somehow, I doubt that's the case.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

The reason I laughed earlier is that you´re completely wrong here. It would take something unprecedented to cause your prediction to come true, not the other way around.

By the time PS3 drops to $200 it will be in a distant last place, the (backwards compatable) PS4 will have already been announced, and incredibly successful Wii will sell for $100 with a far more commercail lineup (in terms of old, new, and future games). Expecting PS3 to sell as well as Wii on a monthly basis at that point is like expecting GC to sell as much hardware as PS2 this June.

He's saying that they will all be selling at the same rates relative to each other as they are now, not that they will each be selling the same amount at that time.

 

[rage1973]

Yeah, the number kind of surprised me. I guess there is a market for this stuff on consoles after all. Someone alert the PC Defense Force.

I think LoTR one sold decent too. Both are solid games and hopefully Halo Wars can be the next to improve the genre on the console.

 

[Parl]

He's saying that they will all be selling at the same rates relative to each other as they are now, not that they will each be selling the same amount at that time.

:/

All 3 consoles will be selling well at the end of this gen, but because the PS3 dropped their price later than other consoles (im speculating on this), they will be behind in actual consoles sold, but not in month-by-month sales.

 

[Zynx]

I am predicting that the end result of the consoles (unless they get terminated at completely different times) will be the difference between them for how ever long it takes for the price to be within mainstream range (sub $200)

History and logic are totally against this position. When things become comparable in price, they don't suddenly sell at the same rate. The one that is most desired is purchased more.

Ps2/Xbox/GC have been in mass market price "sub $200" for quite awhile - and they don't sell at the same rate - PS2 sells far more.

 

[Threi]

:/

What? He is right. PS3 will be far behind, but it will sell better. It will probably pull close to Wii numbers per month. But it will still be behind for the rest of the generation. That is what i am trying to say. I am saying people who think PS3 will skyrocket into #1 because some good games get released are deluded. Good games are coming on all 3 consoles.

Ps2/Xbox/GC have been in mass market price "sub $200" for quite awhile - and they don't sell at the same rate - PS2 sells far more.

I am not trying to pull a card out of the Sony fanboy playbook, but to be fair Xbox and GC weren't $150+ more expensive than the PS2. I just don't think (and i hope not) that there will be a PS2-style market domination this gen. I do think Wii will be #1 though. And that wouldn't bother me at all.

 

[felipeko]

What? He is right. PS3 will be far behind, but it will sell better. It will probably pull close to Wii numbers per month.

How?

Wii is pulling PS2 numbers, there is no way the market can sustain two consoles selling those numbers. Or are you saying Wii numbers will get lower?
That would be very weird for a market leader expanding the market.

 

[Evlar]

What? He is right. PS3 will be far behind, but it will sell better. It will probably pull close to Wii numbers per month. But it will still be behind for the rest of the generation. That is what i am trying to say. I am saying people who think PS3 will skyrocket into #1 because some good games get released are deluded. Good games are coming on all 3 consoles.

I am not trying to pull a card out of the Sony fanboy playbook, but to be fair Xbox and GC weren't $150+ more expensive than the PS2. I just don't think (and i hope not) that there will be a PS2-style market domination this gen. I do think Wii will be #1 though. And that wouldn't bother me at all.

I know what you're trying to say Pachunga, but I think you're being optimistic. For better or worse another generation with PS2-type dominance looks possible, particularly in the world-wide sales totals. Maybe the gap will be somewhat closer, maybe not, but we're arguing over the degree of Wii's domination. Perhaps the sum of the two HD consoles will equal or surpass Wii's HW sales, which will make things a BIT more balanced than last time and keep development on those platforms more robust than XBox/GC. Or perhaps not.

In any case the US market will definitely be the most competitive of the three regions and that will help MS and Sony.

 

[dammitmattt]

How?

Wii is pulling PS2 numbers, there is no way the market can sustain two consoles selling those numbers. Or are you saying Wii numbers will get lower?
That would be very weird for a market leader expanding the market.

Well, the 360 and PS3 will sell a lot more units per month as their prices decrease and the Wii will continue selling well. It's pretty simple to me.

I'm not sure if the 360 and PS3 will catch up to the Wii on a monthly basis, but they will definitely sell much more after price drops.

 

[Threi]

How?

Wii is pulling PS2 numbers, there is no way the market can sustain two consoles selling those numbers. Or are you saying Wii numbers will get lower?
That would be very weird for a market leader expanding the market.

Well not now i don't think it can, but in the future the market may be big enough. Who knows?

I know what you're trying to say Pachunga, but I think you're being optimistic. For better or worse another generation with PS2-type dominance looks possible, particularly in the world-wide sales totals. Maybe the gap will be somewhat closer, maybe not, but we're arguing over the degree of Wii's domination. Perhaps the sum of the two HD consoles will equal or surpass Wii's HW sales, which will make things a BIT more balanced than last time and keep development on those platforms more robust than XBox/GC. Or perhaps not.

In any case the US market will definitely be the most competitive of the three regions and that will help MS and Sony.

I guess that it is a case of optimism, because despite how expensive the PS3 is, how many mistakes Sony has made, and how unbelievably annoying Sony fans are, I would really hate to see the PS3 die off/lose enormous support. Same goes for Nintendo and Microsoft.

 

[Wyndstryker]

Well, the 360 and PS3 will sell a lot more units per month as their prices decrease and the Wii will continue selling well. It's pretty simple to me.

I'm not sure if the 360 and PS3 will catch up to the Wii on a monthly basis, but they will definitely sell much more after price drops.

The only thing we can't know for sure is how much more will they sell with price drops. Will it just be another gundabump or somthing sustainable.

 

[felipeko]

Well, the 360 and PS3 will sell a lot more units per month as their prices decrease and the Wii will continue selling well. It's pretty simple to me.

I'm not sure if the 360 and PS3 will catch up to the Wii on a monthly basis, but they will definitely sell much more after price drops.

Price drops only help few months, the only thing that can boost sales for long is changing market perception of the product, i'm not sure it can be easily changed over the generation (i've never seen it happens, only maybe DS).

Well not now i don't think it can, but in the future the market may be big enough. Who knows?

Like the DS vs PSP, i can see PS3/X360 doing better numbers, but no way close to Wii.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Was the GC the cheapest next gen movie player? Don't think so.

People WILL be interested in the PS3, even if it's only as a BR player when it hits 200 in a couple of years. By then HD adoption will be huge, the PS3 will be a low priced BR player that also has a ton of cool HD games.

I don't even own a PS3 (360 owner here) but I know then when it drops in price I will have to get one for this alone. People thinking the PS3 is lost really don't see the big picture I think.

You're right just as people are interested in the PSP for more than games. The problem is game support from 3rd parties. Even if it takes off as a movie player, what's to drive dev support if people aren't buying games? What's to drive exclusive games support? Look at the PSP. Sony is proving that it's not just getting the product into the homes and hands of people. It's a games business. Maybe it'll take some time to recognize where the money is at but devs will get burnt.

 

[Parl]

What? He is right. PS3 will be far behind, but it will sell better. It will probably pull close to Wii numbers per month. But it will still be behind for the rest of the generation. That is what i am trying to say. I am saying people who think PS3 will skyrocket into #1 because some good games get released are deluded. Good games are coming on all 3 consoles.

Oh, sorry. As he seemed to contradicting Bungalow Bob's contest to your saying they will be selling as similar rates per month, I didn't realise his comment was absurd.

In that case, I fail to see how it will be pulling 300 and something thousand in the summer once it reaches GC status. GC had many great exclusives, mainly first party. Even with Sony's bumped up first party efforts, they will actually be going through this gen in a poor state.

PS3 has advantages over what GC had (better image, more third party support, but not too much significant third party exclusives) but also disadvantages (higher price point through the whole generation, first party lineup that's less appealing for a GC sized userbase than Nintendo's were on GC).

 

[chase]

I love to feel Sony's velvety hand of honor and altruism massage my balls.

They're giving me a movie player and multi-core processor for the low, low price of 599 US Dollars. I've always wanted a movie player and multi-core processor. Don't people realize that they're getting a multi-core processor? I guess if they did then it would be selling better.

 

[Deku]

I want giant corporations to subsidize my habit.

 

[Parl]

I love to feel Sony's velvety hand of honor and altruism massage my balls.

They're giving me a movie player and multi-core processor for the low, low price of 599 US Dollars. I've always wanted a movie player and multi-core processor. Don't people realize that they're getting a multi-core processor? I guess if they did then it would be selling better.

They should seriously advertise the fact it has a Cell and tell everybody what that means. What's Nintendo thinking? Nintendo are acting like this is an entertainment industry and that extra power isn't too much of a big thing for most people. LMAO @ Nintendo.

 

[Deku]

They should seriously advertise the fact it has a Cell and tell everybody what that means. What's Nintendo thinking? Nintendo are acting like this is an entertainment industry and that extra power isn't too much of a big thing for most people. LMAO @ Nintendo.

Some devs can't seem to shut up about it. Have you seen those Uncharted hands on developer videos?

 

[NekoFever]

Some devs can't seem to shut up about it. Have you seen those Uncharted hands on developer videos?

Lair too. I don't think there's been an interview about that game that hasn't mentioned the CELL™.

 

[Alcander]

PS3 is no longer the cheepest BR player.

cheep!

 

[Windu]

Is the wii even hurting the sales of the 360? The consoles are very different. I think the only thing hurting the 360 is the high price tag, I think once the 360 drops in price the wii will continue to sell well along side the 360. Just like how the handheld market expanded with the ds and psp the console market will expand with the addition of the wii. More people this generation will buy two consoles because they are so different unlike last gen.

 

[besada]

[PS3] 81,604

The Power of the Cell(TM)

 

[haunts]

Wii is expanding a market that Sony is going end up acquiring anyway. They're doing Sony a favor if you ask me.

 

[Ramenman]

"WII IS KILLING GAMING LOLZ"

The lolz is wrong, this one is not funny at all.

 

[Roders5]

Wii is expanding a market that Sony is going end up acquiring anyway. They're doing Sony a favor if you ask me.

Ok, 'fess up, who asked him?

 

[LittleTokyo]

Once we all witness the true power of the Cell, things will change.

 

[fernoca]

haunts 2006 vs. haunts 2007

 

[D3RANG3D]

Wii is expanding a market that Sony is going end up acquiring anyway. They're doing Sony a favor if you ask me.

:lol :lol :lol