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[Shiggy]

The chart indeed shows real numbers, but without that additional data point, I question its usefulness in this discussion.

I didn't post it here, so you need to tell that somebody else. But simply saying "It's a chart that could've been made by Polygon" or "that chart is wrong", as some users did, is just showing a lack of understanding. It's an accurate and valid comparison of first month sales/shipments, with numbers published by Nintendo.

The chart is nonetheless useful as it tells us that first month sales aren't enough to tell us about actual long-term demand for the system. Supply was simply too constrained at launch for Switch, and supply is still very much constrained to date in many countries. If you only ship one system, you are selling out easily, but you won't have the best performing system on the market.

 

[MatPiscatella]

I think Super Mario Odyssey will be one of the top 5 best-selling games of Q4, and will drive at least $100m in packaged consumer sales.

I have a bunch of predictions for Q4 if you're interested. It was written before E3, so I have some adjustments to make on the Scorpio bit at the very least.

The chart is nonetheless useful as it tells us that first month sales aren't enough to tell us about actual long-term demand for the system.

Agreed... that's why you gotta take in all available information, even if it's qualitative/anecdotal to try to get a read on what might be coming next. But yeah, comparing anything on a small sample leads to high error. The less data, the less certainty.

I hope some day we do get all the digital numbers.

Working on it!

 

[Vinnk]

Very kind of you to say, thanks!

Wish I could. I guess I'd say that with titles like Zelda showing a record setting attach rate and Kart off to a very strong start, I've actually been a bit surprised by the software strength.

The bummer is we don't get digital sales for Nintendo yet. So when we look at the best-sellers list on the eShop there are titles consistently in the top rankings that I don't have visibility to. I can make some estimates on packaged/digital splits and come to some range estimates, which, again, leaves me somewhat surprised by software strength, at least when it comes to comparing against previous console launches.

Much has been made of the seemingly light slate for Switch. However, when really put apples to apples against past console launches, this slate is performing just as well or better than many previous benchmarks.

Given the severe supply constraints, the strength of slate for the remainder of the year, and what seem to be very satisfied owners evangelizing Switch to others, it is very hard for me to envision a scenario where demand doesn't remain strong through the holiday period.

I was always on the high side of pre-launch forecasts for Switch in the analyst community, and I've raised mine a bit since the launch (although other analysts have gone way beyond what I think reasonable, but that's a topic for another time). I've raised expectations significantly in later years due to Pokemon RPG. I expect households to buy multiple Switch consoles, as has been seen in prior Pokemon launches on portable. If/when this happens, the addressable market for Switch grows beyond what other tv-tethered consoles can reach.

In any case, I find the comments expressing doubts about Switch performance either uninformed or disingenuous. I guess we'll have to wait and see.


Sorry, can't disclose more than the rankings.


I called this out in the analyst notes. Performance drove spending in portable SW up 10% vs last year. That's me saying that the performance was strong.

Thank you for all of that. I understand that there is a limit to what you can share but thank you for joining in our discussions anyway.

I hope some day we do get all the digital numbers.

 

[Crawl]

Has Xb1 passed 30mil WW yet?

 

[Elios83]

Really?
Should we expect launch month numbers to stay flat, even ignoring the console is basically sold out everywhere?

No but the curve could have been much smoother (e.g. 900k->600k->350k).
900k to less than 200k in two months IS a rough decline, no matter who's to blame.
How much shortages are having an impact and making things look uglier we'll never know.
We'll see how the console will sell in the upcoming months but I guess that the focus is on the holiday season.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

No but the curve could have been much smoother (e.g. 900k->600k->350k).
900k to less than 200k in two months IS a rough decline, no matter who's to blame.
How much shortages are having an impact and making things look uglier we'll never know.
We'll see how the console will sell in the upcoming months but I guess that the focus is on the holiday season.

Can you name the amount of systems that have sold anywhere in the neighbourhood of 600k or even 500k units in April?

 

[Primethius]

Has Xb1 passed 30mil WW yet?

Probably/likely.

 

[panda-zebra]

I expect households to buy multiple Switch consoles, as has been seen in prior Pokemon launches on portable. If/when this happens, the addressable market for Switch grows beyond what other tv-tethered consoles can reach.

Thanks for the words, Mat. Do you see this happening with the current hardware in its hybrid form, or more when revised units appear that are "less hybrid"? I'm just thinking nothing should be off the table regarding where the hardware goes, as it took 3DS around 3 years to lose the 3D, so a non-switching Switch has to at least be a possibility, right?

As a gamer, of course I realise there's very little hardware in the dock and all the money is in the handheld unit, but as some random parent, I might be put off purchasing two if I thought it seemed excessive owning 2 of the same console, whereas owning two of the same handheld seems totally reasonable. I dunno, there's just this little grey area where I can't judge it either way.

 

[hanspampel]

Has Xb1 passed 30mil WW yet?

sold through or sold in?
first one is more unlikely. second one is likely
no one knows except Microsoft

 

[reKon]

Still can't believe that beast that is GTA V. I haven't even finished the game...

And lol @ the Tom Clancy game that's not even that great being on top. What is this?

 

[Elios83]

Can you name the amount of systems that have sold anywhere in the neighbourhood of 600k or even 500k units in April?

Can you name the amount of systems that were launched in March with a 900k+ debut?
It's all relative.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Do you see this happening with the current hardware in its hybrid form, or more when revised units appear that are "less hybrid"?

All I know is that Nintendo has a history of hardware iteration. No idea what they may have planned (I gave up trying to predict Nintendo years ago) but some kind of iteration is something I'd expect given history. You're right though, doing something around the launch of Pokemon RPG would make a ton of sense. But who knows.

On your team's end is it the period/quarter you all look forward to the most like we do?

Well sure, it is the most exciting time of year (normally, although March this year was something else). The amount of work doesn't really change too much on our end (more validation for all the new releases, sure, but for the most part math is math). But yeah, I buy way too many games, so I'm there with you.

This holiday is going to be a bit nutty. A lot of big games are sharing release dates, Nintendo is back in the console game in a big way, console VR has a critical period, we get to see if 4k consoles matter as much as some think they might, yadda yadda. A lot going on this Q4 to say the least.

 

[Hero]

Very kind of you to say, thanks!

Wish I could. I guess I'd say that with titles like Zelda showing a record setting attach rate and Kart off to a very strong start, I've actually been a bit surprised by the software strength.

The bummer is we don't get digital sales for Nintendo yet. So when we look at the best-sellers list on the eShop there are titles consistently in the top rankings that I don't have visibility to. I can make some estimates on packaged/digital splits and come to some range estimates, which, again, leaves me somewhat surprised by software strength, at least when it comes to comparing against previous console launches.

Much has been made of the seemingly light slate for Switch. However, when really put apples to apples against past console launches, this slate is performing just as well or better than many previous benchmarks.

Given the severe supply constraints, the strength of slate for the remainder of the year, and what seem to be very satisfied owners evangelizing Switch to others, it is very hard for me to envision a scenario where demand doesn't remain strong through the holiday period.

I was always on the high side of pre-launch forecasts for Switch in the analyst community, and I've raised mine a bit since the launch (although other analysts have gone way beyond what I think reasonable, but that's a topic for another time). I've raised expectations significantly in later years due to Pokemon RPG. I expect households to buy multiple Switch consoles, as has been seen in prior Pokemon launches on portable. If/when this happens, the addressable market for Switch grows beyond what other tv-tethered consoles can reach.

In any case, I find the comments expressing doubts about Switch performance either uninformed or disingenuous. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

All of this definitely makes sense. The holiday months will be quite interesting to see this year! On your team's end is it the period/quarter you all look forward to the most like we do?

Sorry, can't disclose more than the rankings.



I called this out in the analyst notes. Performance drove spending in portable SW up 10% vs last year. That's me saying that the performance was strong.

No worries about being unable to disclose. Totally understandable!

And I see what you were indicating now, I needed to read between the lines there.

Thanks again for taking the time to answer my questions!

 

[Orgen]

I think Super Mario Odyssey will be one of the top 5 best-selling games of Q4, and will drive at least $100m in packaged consumer sales.

I have a bunch of predictions for Q4 if you're interested. It was written before E3, so I have some adjustments to make on the Scorpio bit at the very least.

25% growth for CoD:WWII? Would this put the title on the same ballpark as Black Ops 3 then or not quite yet?

And another question, now that you have digital numbers could you give me the best seller list (no numbers, only the order) for all the CoD games released on PS4/Xbox One please? I suppose that Black Ops 3 is the best seller but I don't know how the other CoDs fare on the list. Thanks!

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Do you seriously believe that a new 3d mario is only wanted by the nintendo fans that has already bought into the system early? It's one of the biggest franchises not only for nintendo but in the industry as a whole.

Yeah, those two quotes were pretty funny.

 

[schuelma]

No but the curve could have been much smoother (e.g. 900k->600k->350k).
900k to less than 200k in two months IS a rough decline, no matter who's to blame.
How much shortages are having an impact and making things look uglier we'll never know.
We'll see how the console will sell in the upcoming months but I guess that the focus is on the holiday season.

You're trying to do a trick where you ignore the reality, i.e that the system is completely supply constrained and try and muddy the waters to imply part of it is demand. That's just not true.

 

[Purest 78]

Do you seriously believe that a new 3d mario is only wanted by the nintendo fans that has already bought into the system early? It's one of the biggest franchises not only for nintendo but in the industry as a whole.

Pretty much yes Not entirely But your fooling yourself if you think it'll touch Cod or Destiny 2.

 

[panda-zebra]

All I know is that Nintendo has a history of hardware iteration. No idea what they may have planned (I gave up trying to predict Nintendo years ago) but some kind of iteration is something I'd expect given history. You're right though, doing something around the launch of Pokemon RPG would make a ton of sense. But who knows.

cheers, Mat.

sold through or sold in?
first one is more unlikely. second one is likely
no one knows except Microsoft

and some kid in France who wrecks wikipedia pages.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Pretty much yes Not entirely But your fooling yourself if you think it'll touch Cod or Destiny 2.

No one said Mario would outsell those titles. That's not even possible at the moment. But Mario will be the most talked about game this fall, easily, particularly among the mainstream and more casual players. And the original discussion was about whether or not Switch would lose momentum this holiday. It will not.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Can you name the amount of systems that were launched in March with a 900k+ debut?
It's all relative.

Yeah. 1 system. The Switch. Now can you answer my question?

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

By the way didn't NIS say In early May that Disgea 5 had 78k preorders in the US? Wonder how it did for its launch month?

 

[The Emperor]

Switch looks to be between N64 and Wii in terms of success atm!

There is definitely excitement for the system. The dust will settle around october for a truly proper analysis

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Switch looks to be between N64 and Wii in terms of success atm!

There is definitely excitement for the system. The dust will settle around october for a truly proper analysis

It'll settle around October when a new 3D Mario releases? This train ain't stopping until 2018 baby!

 

[Castef]

Now that I think of it... no one bought The Surge.

 

[Kageshinzo]

No but the curve could have been much smoother (e.g. 900k->600k->350k).
900k to less than 200k in two months IS a rough decline, no matter who's to blame.
How much shortages are having an impact and making things look uglier we'll never know.
We'll see how the console will sell in the upcoming months but I guess that the focus is on the holiday season.

How do you expect such a curve if Nintendo was only able to ship X number of units, even if they wanted to do more? Let's say they were able to ship 900k units on launch, but then, due to supply constraints, can only supply 200~300k every month thereafter, do you expect people to buy invisible units just so "the curve could have been much smoother"? Remember that Nintendo initially expected to sell 2 million units in it's first month, but ended up selling 2.74 million instead.

 

[Turrican3]

No but the curve could have been much smoother (e.g. 900k->600k->350k).
900k to less than 200k in two months IS a rough decline, no matter who's to blame.

It could have been smoother though, had they not chosen to increase launch shipments using airfreight. Next months number obviously suffered a hit because of this.

In the end, I believe it's all about the issues in the ramping up of the production, and there are quite strong hints this is not going to be solved that quickly.

 

[Purest 78]

No one said Mario would outsell those titles. That's not even possible at the moment. But Mario will be the most talked about game this fall, easily, particularly among the mainstream and more casual players. And the original discussion was about whether or not Switch would lose momentum this holiday. It will not.

Well I disagree Mario Will be the most talked game by Nintendo fans. For the masses Cod and Destiny 2 Will have more Limelight.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Well I disagree Mario Will be the most talked game by Nintendo fans. For the masses Cod and Destiny 2 Will have more Limelight.

Mario is not a brand that only appeals to "Nintendo fans". I'm not talking about something like Metroid here.

Mario, Zelda and Splatoon will all having their first chance at selling during the christmas period, all three at the same time

Plus Mario Kart, which most consumers won't even know is an enhanced port for a system they never knew existed.

The only limit for Switch this holiday is Nintendo's production.

 

[sphinx]

This holiday is going to be a bit nutty. A lot of big games are sharing release dates, Nintendo is back in the console game in a big way, console VR has a critical period, we get to see if 4k consoles matter as much as some think they might, yadda yadda. A lot going on this Q4 to say the least.

GAF can call me overly optimistic but I believe will see an absolutely insane first Q4 for switch, it will rival anything in the past so far, PS2, PS4, Wii, DS, you-name-it, all in their peaks.

few consoles have had a 1st year like the switch will have,

Mario, Zelda and Splatoon will all having their first chance at selling during the christmas period, all three at the same time

 

[Norse]

Did anyone post how Xbox and switch finished? I see ps4 was 1st, but did anyone who knows post who was 2nd? Thx

 

[MisterR]

Can you name the amount of systems that have sold anywhere in the neighbourhood of 600k or even 500k units in April?

It was released in March. It should be capable of selling that in April if the stock is there. Comparing the second month of a consoles release to a normal April for consoles is disingenuous and silly.

 

[Primethius]

Did anyone post how Xbox and switch finished? I see ps4 was 1st, but did anyone who knows post who was 2nd? Thx

Not confirmed officially I don't think but Switch is second. XB1 probably hovers around 100k this month and while Switch supply is terrible, I don't think it's that terrible.

 

[panda-zebra]

GAF can call me overly optimistic but I believe will see an absolutely insane first Q4 for switch, it will rival anything in the past so far, PS2, PS4, Wii, DS, you-name-it, all in their peaks.

You confident they could manufacture and stockpile enough units to live up to your forecast? See them being able to put anything to one side when it looks like, for quite some time, it's going to continue to sell through everything that makes it off the factory floor?

 

[Gotdatmoney]

It was released in March. It should be capable of selling that in April if the stock is there. Comparing the second month of a consoles release to a normal April for consoles is disingenuous and silly.

It's not the first system to ever launch in March. There is no precedent to base that off of. March April is not the same thing as November December. I'm not saying it's impossoble. I'm saying it's not something we could definitively say.

GAF can call me overly optimistic but I believe will see an absolutely insane first Q4 for switch, it will rival anything in the past so far, PS2, PS4, Wii, DS, you-name-it, all in their peaks.

few consoles have had a 1st year like the switch will have,

Mario, Zelda and Splatoon will all having their first chance at selling during the christmas period, all three at the same time

They wont have anywhere near the stock. Even if they did I do not see this system having PS2, Wii, DS level holidays pretty much ever.

 

[InsaneTiger]

Are people fighting about Zelda v Horizon again? Can neither exist at the same time?

Grow up.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

GAF can call me overly optimistic but I believe will see an absolutely insane first Q4 for switch, it will rival anything in the past so far, PS2, PS4, Wii, DS, you-name-it, all in their peaks.

few consoles have had a 1st year like the switch will have,

Mario, Zelda and Splatoon will all having their first chance at selling during the christmas period, all three at the same time

Not with the stock problems they are having.

 

[Spirited]

Pretty much yes Not entirely But your fooling yourself if you think it'll touch Cod or Destiny 2.

Not saying it will but you and the other guy are fooling yourself if you think FUCKING MARIO only appeals to hardcore nintendo fans.

 

[Ricky_R]

PSN May top sellers
NA PS4

4. The Order: 1886

BOOM! Bring the sequel breh.

 

[AngelOFDeath]

Man, is GTAV the best selling game of all time by now. That thing refuse to die.

 

[HStallion]

Now that I think of it... no one bought The Surge.

yeah I'm not surprised. The reviews weren't glowing enough and a lot of people seemed to write it off as a Soulsbourne clone and held Lords of the Fallen against the developers. I'd honestly say its better than Dark Souls 2 and 3 and an excellent game with meaty combat, incredible level design and some really cool ideas. Hopefully people pick it up on sale down the road.

 

[Purest 78]

Mario is not a brand that only appeals to "Nintendo fans". I'm not talking about something like Metroid here.

You're talking to someone who's owned every Nintendo Console day one except Switch including Virtual Boy. I have No hate for Nintendo what so ever.

All I'm saying is Nintendo has it's die-hard base that'll be majority of Switch owners. There was a 3D and 2D Mario on Wiiu It didn't tip of the Scales. I think the game Will sell great without a doubt. Just maybe some should keep expectation in check.

 

[kitchenmotors]

Damn that fucking chart is Polygon level of dumb. I mean, really.

Also amused people still thinking Nintendo is holding back stock. There are component supply issues and honestly, when you’re trying to get the same components from the same source as Apple, especially during a time when they’re ramping up production for their biggest iPhone launch, it makes sense.

Switch is still popular and the demand will hold, especially with their excellent lineup of games.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

All I'm saying is Nintendo has it's die-hard base that'll be majority of Switch owners.

......no

We're long past this point.

I mean, if this is your premise, we're just going to have to agree to disagree and move on.

 

[Behlel]

Not saying it will but you and the other guy are fooling yourself if you think FUCKING MARIO only appeals to hardcore nintendo fans.

If mario have the appeal to the masses why WiiU was such a flop? It's a game aimed for the classic Nintendo audience and made to sell for years like all the other mario title, it isn't aimed for the whole industry like GTA, COD or every other popular shooter.
Mario Odissey will sel a lot of copies but it's a long term seller where COD, Destiny and Battlefront are all front loaded so there is no chance that it can be the most wished game this holiday.

 

[Give War A Chance]

The only limit for Switch this holiday is Nintendo's production.

Which is a serious, serious concern. It's the summer now, with no MAJOR top-shelf games releasing (nothing like Zelda, Mario, or Kart; not denigrating Arms or Splat, they're just not tent poles yet) and it is *still* impossible to find one of these things.

I don't think it's going to get any easier with each passing month as demand rises and rises for holidays.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

You're talking to someone who's owned every Nintendo Console day one except Switch including Virtual Boy. I have No hate for Nintendo what so ever.

All I'm saying is Nintendo has it's die-hard base that'll be majority of Switch owners. There was a 3D and 2D Mario on Wiiu It didn't tip of the Scales. I think the game Will sell great without a doubt. Just maybe some should keep expectation in check.

Naw. Sometimes I wonder who the audience is that makes games sell 5+ million units. It's not die hard fans. It's the expanded audience. Mario Kart, Cod, Zelda, Fifa, NBA games dont rake in units from tm hardcore gamer. Its people who are casually into games that make these things huge successes.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

......no

We're long past this point.

I mean, if this is your premise, we're just going to have to agree to disagree and move on.

I would disagree. The WiiU sold what, 15m lifetime?

That's roughly 15m core Nintendo fans hungry for the company's new hotness. I think it remains to be seen how the Switch's sales trajectory will settle off over time.

I do think it'll perform markedly better than the WiiU, though I expect it to fall a reasonable margin below the Wii when all is said and done.

I'm not as optimistic as most.

 

[Omnistalgic]

I always thought this was hearsay, but Jesus, Nintendo's success really does do weird things to people.

It reverses too tho...

- MH thread Nintendo fans are super pissy crapping on the game it's no longer exclusive and not portable "fake MH5"

- Every platform or big 3rd party title Switch owners are first posts "port to Switch please" or "this would be perfect on Switch" regardless of the game's technical achievements

- The Zelda hysteria and how it cannot possibly be inferior to Horizon, it's Zelda!!! Your opinion is wrong and you like shiny graphics more, not the amazing combat engine, traversal and hunting elements.

Fanboyism is honestly ruining this place. I try and stay in subbed and mostly interesting topics only, but it's creeping in everywhere

 

[ForkNetwork]

It reverses too tho...

- MH thread Nintendo fans are super pissy crapping on the game it's no longer exclusive and not portable "fake MH5"

- Every platform or big 3rd party title Switch owners are first posts "port to Switch please" or "this would be perfect on Switch" regardless of the game's technical achievements

- The Zelda hysteria and how it cannot possibly be inferior to Horizon, it's Zelda!!! Your opinion is wrong and you like shiny graphics more, not the amazing combat engine, traversal and hunting elements.

Fanboyism is honestly ruining this place. I try and stay in subbed and mostly interesting topics only, but it's creeping in everywhere

Switch port begging is the absolute worst, most arent even subtle about it.

 

[Spirited]

Which is a serious, serious concern. It's the summer now, with no MAJOR top-shelf games releasing (nothing like Zelda, Mario, or Kart; not denigrating Arms or Splat, they're just not tent poles yet) and it is *still* impossible to find one of these things.

I don't think it's going to get any easier with each passing month as demand rises and rises for holidays.

I would say splatoon is worthy of being called a tent pole after the performance the first game had on fucking WiiU. Splatoon 2 is their big summer game and I see no reason for it not driving demand for the hardware (Especially in Japan) as it did for awhile for the WiiU, an almost dead system at the time of the Splatoon 1 release.