Gotdatmoney
Member
We still doing this Horizon vs BotW shit? Does it matter which will sell better? By any metric both games are huge hits.
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That's really the point Cod and GTA are the cool game for kids and teenagers these days. When I was young nothing touched Mario. Oddly enough Nintendo is family friendly but all Nintendo fans I know are older.
Savantcore
Unconfirmed Member
Omnistalgic
Member
Not getting into the MARIO brand and how big it is debate, but I do agree many Nintendo fans are older. Lot of MacBook Pokémon decals at my office and building with many blue collar upper scale workers
Anecdotal of course
Toni
Member
Its not concerning at all. Switch is competing with a market leader doing record numbers.
That sentence would accomodate Xbox One better because it would truly be concerning if Xbox One outsells it.
WhiskerFrisker
Member
Gotdatmoney
Member
I expect great things outta the Switch but I really think that unless something insane happens in the next 2 years the PS4 will be the comfortable market leader. That said similar to gen 7, third place could still sell a shit ton of units in NA.
AcademicSaucer
Member
So how Disgaea did?
hanspampel
Banned
no leaks anymore
Did you have any thoughts about what was shown at E3?
The trends that stuck out to me were:
1.) The number of AAA games being announced was pretty low, even for the modern era. It feels like most publishers announced games years in advance to make previous E3s feel more full, but the reality of that situation is catching up to them.
2.) Games as a Service seemed to make up the vast majority of announcements, with most announcements not fitting that trend either being games that started development in 2014 or earlier (Wolfenstein, The Evil Within, Assassin's Creed), lower budget niche titles (The Way Out, Metro), or games from Sony/Microsoft, who have notably different incentives in what type of software to make. Ubisoft has implied they're trying to roll some kind of service model into Assassin's Creed as well, despite the title looking like it was not originally built with that in mind. You can also likely apply this to games that were unveiled a bit earlier, like Shadow of War, which started development in 2014, and seems to have some kind of loot box mechanism judging by its special editions despite being a singleplayer title.
3.) There was a large focus on games that are releasing in the near future, and also on updates to existing games. Bethesda showed a bunch of DLC and game updates. EA had a large focus on Battlefield DLC and updates. Ubisoft focused on a long slate of titles, but they're actively trying to fend off a hostile takeover by impressing investors. Nintendo showed DLC for Zelda and updates for ARMS. Sony even seems to be trying to get out content faster with an increase in the amount of substantial DLC and side games they're making, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue given what they said in some interviews. It got me wondering if we've entered a state where it makes the most sense to focus on selling (or selling more for) your current slate of games instead of advertising the next ones even at a venue like this, except the ones coming out in the very near future. The focus on existing titles also increased dramatically once we went to publisher specific streams instead of press conferences.
4.) VR didn't have a lot of presence, outside of Sony, who had kind of a mash up trailer of a bunch of smaller titles. It was similar to their montages of yore, but gave you a somewhat extended look compared to what those did.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
2 Nintendo games vs all the industry backing PS4 and we keep comparing Nintendo sales to Playstation's
Toni
Member
Nothing is coming near the PS4 this gen.
PS4 is ahead of Switch by almost 60 million units and is ahead of Xbox One by 30 million.
Switch could be the next Wii and still won't be catching up to PS4. Once Sony hits mass consumer price of $199 and lower, that thing will have insane legs. PS4 will certainly co-exist with PS5 as well, very similar to how PS3 was with PS4.
I don't know what Phil Spencer plans for Xbox One, but I know PS4 for sure will have the craziest 3rd quarter of ever. Their biggest 3rd quarter (holiday period) was last year. But this year I firmly believe is the year the PS4 peaks. I dont know what stops the PS4 these holidays.
Yep. Both games are hits, HZD on a big instal base but ultra competitive environment as a new IP, and BOTW on a small install base but relatively sparse competition and very well known franchise with established fanbase.
#Whynotboth?
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
And there's only one man who can stop him.
fuck, i hate this gaf-meme but this needs to be updated
astroturfing
Member
dude no. COD is a beast, Overwatch is a beast... GTAV is a beast slayer, a godly entity among mere mortal animals.
Revenue (80$ because of lightgun package and unknown non-bundled goods quantities) vs. normal 60$ release + ???tracking of NISA's own SE and regular sales (or at least I am unaware if these are tracked by NPD).
Farpoint is a bad point of reference since its effectively 50% more expensive on a revenue chart.
Total western pre-orders were reported at over 100k, but ~80k of that was seemingly from NA. Since most of those pre-orders were likely sales and the game has been regularly sold-out, it tells us that either NISA's own store sales are not tracked or that the revenue chart is obscuring the title vs. raw # of units.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I'm assuming you meant similar to PS2 co-existing with PS3, because PS3's sales fell off a cliff once PS4 launched. I expect Sony to handle PS4's twilight years similarly to how they handled PS2.
Gotdatmoney
Member
I'm only talking NA since all 3 systems play on a much more even playing field in this market (and its NPD). Not that I disagree with you at all. PS4 will run away with the market. PS4 for instance is not destroying the X1 in NA like the rest of the world though. NA has always been much more receptive to all of the big 3 vs the rest of the world.
Toni
Member
Only because PS3's price was absurd for what it was ($199) after 7 years. The bundles were going as high as $249.99. It was nonsensical for the 10 year plan.
PS4 has dominated the market harder than any PlayStation console has, Im pretty sure the legs its going to get mainly due to its impact, will be crazy.
On NA?
Oh definetly then. Its surreal the PS4 doesnt have a bigger Ltd lead considering its position. Xbox is keeping up with it, and Im pretty sure the Switch could really shake the NA market enough to pass Xbox and catch up to PS4 if its well stocked and Nintendo gets fierce with price points and bundles for the holidays. They already have a good line up for this year.
PS2 to PS3 to PS4 were a hard transitional breaks. The PS4's bottom-out price is likely not going to get too much lower due to production realities and component obsolescence (kind of a different angle from the NAND shortage for Nintendo, eventually the old parts in the PS4 will be so old that no one will want to produce them).
The PS4 isn't going to get much lower than the PS3, tech moves too fast and no one is going to want to sit on part-lines for an otherwise dead APU unit.
OrbitalBeard
Member
This is true. I believe PS2 got to $99 at one point. That's never happening with PS4.
Sorry to be rude but I honestly can't take you seriously after seeing your fanboyism in the MC thread
Jarod McChicken
Member
It would be important indeed to know if yes or no the NISA Store is tracked because it certainly represent a big chunk of sales and revenue with the all the pricey collectors being sold out on that store.
Incidentally, that would also mean that the number previously revealed for Disgaea 5 on PS4 was not the full story.
Is it possible for Mat to tell us about the tracking of the NISA Store ?
MatPiscatella
Member
You nailed it. The show is definitely changing, and companies are looking to extend selling tails of fewer games overall. Agree with all you pointed out.
I think these things are going to continue for a few years, fewer AAA games, significantly extended marketing/promotion/content adds over time (heck look at the Diablo 3 announce today) all looking to extend/deepen engagement. Time is the new currency and all that.
Bigger picture, I think we could potentially hit an inflection point regarding resolutions, cost of content production and sales potential.
I think we're getting to the point where the number of AAA titles is being reduced to a point that puts longer-term mass market appeal of consoles at a bit of a risk for the next gen (yeah I know people here will disagree, but I'm thinking a few years down the line here). 4k resolution/support requires more investment. And since full game sales aren't really growing over time, $ needed to support that investment has to come from service components.
Question is how much DLC/MTX can the market provide? Is there some point where that ARPU will peak? Can these service games recruit potential customers that aren't already in the console market?
Games going service model, and the strong positive consumer response to this, is what is providing the opportunity for growth on the core consoles. Maybe everything will be fine with fewer games generating more $ per game due to the DLC/MTX. I just think that, in broad terms, more content variation in AAA allows the consoles to appeal to more corners of the mass market, those people that have no idea that games like Inside or PUBG even exist.
Still wrapping my head around E3 this year. I was surprised more by what wasn't shown/talked about than what was. It's certainly evolving, that's for sure.
Interesting. I'll look into it.
Gotdatmoney
Member
It's just weird because it strikes me far more as pointless bickering. These games gonna sell so much any difference in sales is going to be meaningless when all is said and done. Is there a prize if one sells 11m and the other sells 11.5m?
Pretty sure Switch would have sold better that month if there was no supply constrains.
DriftingSpirit
Member
What is the lowest price point do you all think the PS4 will hit?
Gotdatmoney
Member
Maybe like $170? The days of $99 boxes is over.
I can't see it dropping below 199$ from a pure hardware cost perspective, the BoM would be lower but with shipping and packaging costs added it rounds out to the nice 199$. But bundles will throw in more and more games for a "price drop" with software that is otherwise largely dead on sales potential anyway.
So you'll have the holiday *big game* + 2-3 other pieces of software that no one buys anymore at retail or digital.
180$ I guess
Since the old D5 PS4 numbers were leaks or came from ani directly, those were likely the actual numbers. I think he already mentioned that the Switch release has already caught up to the PS4 but I may be misremembering.
Square2015
Member
Where's Persona?
hanspampel
Banned
MSRP or retailer promotions?
$99 for the latter is totally possible imho
$149/179 as MSRP will happen at some point
we're already at $249
when the Ps4 is still selling any substantial numbers when 7nm will be ready, they will do a die shrink.
just like they did with the Ps3 Superslim
gundamkyoukai
Member
$99 would be to low unless they get it on 7nm .
$150 i can see happening during certain times of the year and sales.
EDIT yeah it will depend on sales if PS4 still selling okay they will go for 7nm .
Dont forget some, probably many, looked at what was happening with Wii U sales as proof that consoles were dying. Even during and after 2014 it was still popping up here n there in NPD threads.
They answered their own question really. lol.
I agree. That attach rate for BotW may never be repeated again. And I always love seeing new IP's do well. Gives me hope we wont be stuck with only insert_game_here sequels up to 4, 5, etc.
Well, one person did respond saying Zelda won so...... I forgot to place my bets... :-(
Thunder Monkey
Banned
$129.99 to clear out remaining stock in 2022.
That's the lowest price the PS4 will hit. Not sure yet if the innards will be a stock PS4 or a significantly die shrunk Pro.
That's the lowest price the PS4 will hit. Not sure yet if the innards will be a stock PS4 or a significantly die shrunk Pro.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I don't even get why some Nintendo fans are so insecure they have to keep bringing up Horizon, a new IP, to bash in to prop up Zelda, a game with like 30 years of history and one of the most beloved series in all of gaming. Looks pathetic.
Brace yourself, Crash Trilogy vs Mario Odyssey is next
this is also no better actually
OrbitalBeard
Member
It's definitely pathetic.
It's also kind of pathetic that, like, two people did that in this thread and like 15 of you won't stop talking about it.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Knack vs 3D World
knack 2 vs Odyssey, Persona 5 vs Xeno 2, Days Gone vs Splatoon 2, am I missing something?
Yearsoflurking
Member
same it's a weird dynamic too and i just don't get it. kids are either playing minecraft/roblox or cod/gta
Thunder Monkey
Banned
They were competing for mindshare, taking up a similar place in the market.
Smart of Sony to try to cut off Nintendo's most prominent "core" gamer series, given the last time they launched with one, the system went on to sell 100 million units, and directly eat into Sony's marketshare.
Smart business and was always going to incite fervor among the religious of both sides.
But that doesn't matter, because we got two incredible open world titles for it.
HZD was given a release date many months before Switch and Zelda, when the rumours everywhere stated that the later would drop in fall 2016
But nice try, I guess.
Gotdatmoney
Member
I threw up a lil.
Those pics of kids with COD bundles weren't really too far off.
No better than what, exactly?
You might have a point if it wasn't something that happens all the time on GAF now, and was actually just a couple of random posts in this thread only. Good for you playing the "both sides" card to defend the poor system warriors though.