OrbitalBeard
Member
Nah, I still very much have a point. The constant whining about two stupid posts is derailing this thread.
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Nah, I still very much have a point. The constant whining about two stupid posts is derailing this thread.
Do you think that smaller budget service games might start hitting wider appeal though?
My thoughts drift toward games like Rocket League that just hit over 30 million players, and provides gameplay pretty different to anything you're seeing in the AAA space.
These types of social experience games seem to be picking up steam among the mass audience. Certainly we can look at games like Minecraft at over 122 million, Roblox at over 30 million unique monthly users, and even Terraria at over 20 million copies, and see that these games are hitting it off pretty well with a broad audience. The console SKUs seem to represent, while not the lion's share, at least a pretty healthy audience as well. Minecraft, Roblox, and Rocket League are sitting at the #4, #6, and #10 slots for most played Xbox One games for this week in the US, and at #5, #6, and #4 respectively in the UK.
I look at where mobile titan Supercell has went with their game design over time, and the progression from Hay Day -> Clash of Clans/Boom Beach -> Clash Royale and Clash of Clans' reboot -> Brawl Stars, and see mobile mega hits (well, Brawl Stars technically isn't out yet...) that are becoming progressively more like what you see in the console and traditional PC space as well, so I think that's a more natural bridge to cross for children growing up with these types of experience (unless mobile of course ends up eating into that audience by providing these types of experiences).
Also, thank you. I'm going to make a separate thread for that.
I'm reminded of that funny pic with the Intended/Actual audience pictures for COD/Pokemon
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Oddly confrontational.
But I take your point.
Smart business for Sony to make the endeavor, smart business for Nintendo to undercut it.
Sony trying to take the power of the Zelda series from Nintendo by releasing an incredible playing, visual masterpiece, built from a similar mold to the newest entry into Nintendo's preeminent "core" gamer series. And Nintendo for meeting that and releasing around the same time.
I ascribed Sony more influence than I should have with my initial assumption. I saw it more as an aggressive move they made into Nintendo space than I apparently should have. Predicated on my assumption that they set the date in response to Nintendo.
My apologies.
It was smart business both ways, it was going to cause a "war" among the religious either way. And in the end gaming got a couple of awesome games for it.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
$150 or even less...
Unlike PS3, PS4's APU design should provide greater opportunities for cost reduction in moving to a smaller manufacturing process node.
A 7nm PS4 APU would be an expensive endeavor for Sony/AMD to engineer, but again unlike the PS3, the sales success of PS4 would more than justify the engineering investment, provided any physical limitations in the design can be adequately designed around.
A sub-$150 PS4 could do wonders for Sony in emerging markets, similar to how the PS2 extended Sony's reach into those most price-sensitive territories.
joe_zazen
Member
Thing is, N handhelds still sell. 3DS, even in a smartphone world. NS as a handheld will sell to that crowd, so 50M over 7 years minimum.
Hell, I want a Pro but a Slim at $250 with a game bundled is causing me to pause. $150? If that happens....
Yea this is the beauty of the Switch.
Just based on 3DS numbers I can see it doing 50 million.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I have no idea of their true intent but I don't feel like Sony was looking at Zelda when it released HZD. Seems like they were looking more at the Ubi type games or Western open world games.
They just can't make enough. That's about all it is. If they supplied more I'm certain they would take the top spot this month.
Toni
Member
What fanboyism? Being realistic with Switch?
People are saying Switch is going to overtake the PS4's 4 million installbase, in a year, in Japan.
And I gave perfectly valid and structured points as to why I thought that wasn't reachable.
I'm sorry if that's not what you wanted to hear.
I beg you not to propagate this awful corporate-speak. 'Announcement' is a perfectly good noun.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Before we knew the extent of the NAND shortages this wasn't a particularly crazy estimate tbh. Now it's not happening though. Shipments wont be there.
joe_zazen
Member
And then they keep the game for online, which is why the second hand market is still so strong: $ 30 USD on amazon.com as of now. The game is a stunning success, I wish Iiked it. :-/
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I don't know. I mean I can see the influences, but I got a very Zelda overworld feel when I was jaunting around the world. But insanely polished and developed.
It's its own game, and direct comparison with Zelda anything is a crapshoot. But similar enough games that people on both ends of the dumb Sony/Ninty divide see that they are in competition. That the success of one could eat into the success of the other.
Enough so that Nintendo felt enough potential competition that they released in very close proximity. Exacerbating the competition fans felt.
It's all very childish.
This was known for a while now. Doesn't stem the tide of people acting like it bombed though.
Sad Affleck
Member
I still don't own GTA V. I should be in a museum or something.
Gotdatmoney
Member
I dont either. And I have 0 intention of ever purchasing it. But damn if it aint a beast.
The perfect Dark
Banned
Soldiussnaku
Member
With another slim revision, 150$.
Keeping the current slim revision until ps5? Standard price of 199$ with sales.dropping it to 150$ for the console.
I understand in NA sony hasn't been too price aggressive, however that have been very aggressive price wise in the UK and Europe. They are gunning for a cheap price in the us and we will see lots of price cuts and bundles this xmas in NA, like we have seen with other markets this year.
I can't tell if this is a joke account.
anothertech
Member
Gtav lolol
Printsmoney.gif
Printsmoney.gif
Toni
Member
It just won't be there, period. There's too many restrictions that won't let it get there.
The Switch hype has driven people crazy to the point that anyone who goes to an MC thread and poses an intervention in the form of actual arguments gets you called out fanboy randomly somewhere else lol 😢
Toni
Member
You have no idea what you#re talking about tbh.
Sure thing, jan.
I'm actually not even sorry now.
joe_zazen
Member
?
No one has done that, let alone 'a tide of people.' Why attempt to cast discussion in such a polarizing way?
FalsettoVibe
Member
This holiday season will be utterly bananas.
OrbitalBeard
Member
You said this and got called out for it:
And rightfully so, because you are wrong. Your entire premise is rooted in the notion that, even if Switch had ample stock, it would be impossible for the device to sell 4 million in a year and you were rightfully called out on that. The idea that you thought you were the voice of reason was pretty funny. There isn't a single person in MC threads that believes the system will sell 4 million units if Nintendo can't address their production problems.
Kageshinzo
Member
Console sales might be healthy, I'll concede that (even though I'm not sure current gen doing better than the beginning of the previous one is necessarily a definitive proof, considering the utter disaster that was 599$ PS3)
But console-related industry, as a whole? Let's discuss, with the post of NPD's Matt in mind. Less (AAA) games is hardly a good sign IMHO.
Gotdatmoney
Member
No offense but I read the MC threads regularly and the arguments you posted as to why it wouldnt happen were not rock solid. They were at best arguable. Based on how the Switch was selling before the 25k drops due to extremely low supply and the current line up, there was actually a reasonable chance of approaching 4 million.
You're misrepresenting the situation and the discussuon people were having and you really shouldn't.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
So do we know how much larger of an opening Injustice 2 had over the first one?
Maybe that's why NPD is tracking revenue now instead of units.
If less games are being made but revenue isn't dropping or its increasing..
Take GTA V. Just from online alone it's making bank.
Yeah that works out for Cheap handheld like DS to play Mario on. All the kids in my family including my kids own some variation of the DS. I can tell you no way I'll spend $300 on a switch for them. My kids would break it in less than a month lol.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Maybe I'm just dumb?
joe_zazen
Member
IDK. Games like GTAV generate so much more $ than what a game like GTAIV made, and R* is making so much more content for it than they made for IV. I do not believe you can 1: 1 compare titles across generations. 1 GTAV = 3 GTAIVs, or something.
Traditionally, people have chosen one game ( Poker, football, chess, whatever) and played that for years. Moreover, all these games were social in some respect. Video games are starting to better cater to the way people like to play. although, putting gambling elements into these things is going to backfire if parents ever catch on. Nobody wants to ^ the odds of raising a kid with a gambling problem.
darkstar0155
Member
Glad someone brought up the old comments. Both his arguments for switch and Zelda all boiled down to "it cant" without any real data to back him up.
Toni
Member
It was a simple argument that got everybody extremely riled up.
I said I did not foresee the Switch doing 4 million in a year based on the fact that console sales over there are not healthy at the moment and stock isnt strong.
Then another argument was brought up that Switch was also a handheld and that because of the portability and demand, it was going to overtake the PS4's installbase in 12 months. Which I found that super difficult to pull off.
For the portability part, I said that because Nintendo is still pushing the 3DS so heavy, that Switch was not going to eat much market away from the 3DS and was mainly going to be competing on the console front with Xbox One and PS4.
The MC threads are very pro Nintendo and god forbid you try to make the Switch look bad.
Kageshinzo
Member
You might not, but obviously, a lot more parents do. And no, Mario being one of the top 10 licenses for kids is not due to "cheap hardware like the DS" lol. Mario is just that popular of a brand for that demographic, period.
OrbitalBeard
Member
You did not say this . Your first post in that thread stated that, regardless of stock, the system will not sell four million units:
You then made the post that I've already quoted in this thread, saying that it is literally impossible for the system to sell four million units in one year, because no console has ever done so in Japan, which is completely false.
You chose to backpedal once you were called out multiple times.
And again, no one believes the system can sell 4 million with the current production problems Nintendo is facing.
But anyway, this is an NPD thread, so I'm done. But please be more honest next time.
And perhaps try to conceal your agenda a bit better as well.
MatPiscatella
Member
This is fair. I will try to be more cognizant.
Well we track it all. We started reporting revenues because digital flash sales were making units go crazy, and we didn't want someone to be able to do a $1 flash sale on an old game and all of a sudden end up #1 on the chart with rev a fraction of another game.
But you're right on your point. Units are becoming less and less relevant in the market. Going revenue was the right call for sure. Can't put units in the bank and all that, but also because of the different ways games are selling now when compared to back in the unit tracking days.
Patapwn
Member
Except the much higher likelihood is that the release of the switch (and therefore Zelda) and the release of Horizon was entirely coincidental. Horizon already had a date and Nintendo needed to get the switch out after missing the holiday season.
Plus, I doubt Nintendo had Horizon on their radar at all. No way would make a new IP determine the release of their next big hardware
Gotdatmoney
Member
I dont think people were riled up tbh. You just didn't really use any numbers to solidify your point.
Eh, this isn't really what you said and when you said it the stock situation wasn't amazing but it wasn't so dire that it should have been a serious concern.
I dunno, Switch is a handheld and selling as such, surpassing PS4 in 12 months is questionable though not impossible.
I mean this is not reality though. Especially since 3DS is in decline, Switch is the next big system and it was selling as such. PS4 and X1 aren't competition for the Switch in Japan. This also wasnt how you framed it in that thread.
Naw, you're just seeing what you wanna see. It's a blend of system warriors and then real sales analysis. Always has been. Victim thing is silly.
I don't know, either.
I mean:
First, I'm not sure we can talk about a healthier market when you have less (big) players with a smaller amount of AAA games: that's basically the definition of an oligopoly, and I believe it's not good for us, the consumers, either.
Second, despite having a huge beast like GTA V, Take Two is in the red.
Either they are a massively mishandled company (which is a possibility, I don't really follow their business) or there's something terribly wrong in this industry. Mindblowing nonetheless, if you ask me.
darkstar0155
Member
I could be completely misremembering here, but I thought Take2 really only goes in the black when a new GTA releases. Given at those times they go hugely in the black, but I thought I remembered that from somewhere.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Yeah I see it this way as well.
Which makes all the comparisons plain silly. I doubt Sony had any hopes of achieving the kind of acclaim a Zelda game garners and I doubt Nintendo was looking at Horizon quaking in their boots.
McMoneyman
Member
Wouldn't surprise me. Which is a little shame, because I don't see many people talking about the main campaign which I thought was fun as hell.
Dark_castle
Junior Member
FE Echoes is great, hope the sales is considered good.
Toni
Member
I got rectified and still posed an argument after that though?. Unfortunately, everything kept getting insanely hectic after that, so I chose to tone it down a bit. But I firmly still kept my arguments on a beliavable margin.
I don't know why even if I "backpedaled", this is still such a sure thing for Switch sales that made everyone go nuts against somebody who thought on the opposite direction. Switch has a huge dedicated following, I obviously get that now. But its coming off from the Wii U, on a tough market, and competing with the PS4 that everyone thinks that for some reason, will magically stop selling when making "positive" Switch sales predictions.
Its unecessary to call out folks like that.
And no.
I don't have an agenda. Just putting that out there to avoid future confussions when you guys come for me again.
