King Beyond the wall
Member
If it was never coming to ps4 they would have said so, like sony did with SF5.
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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
If it was never coming to ps4 they would have said so, like sony did with SF5.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
Hope so. I really liked TR
E. I'm still a bit worried because it's published by Microsoft.Hope so. I really liked TR
A lot has been published by MS. Every *indie* game was basically published by MS.
I know this doesn't mean anything but perhaps it can add a bit of hope for you...and for me as TR is something I play on PC, on my couch ^^
If you note, I'm specifically discussing hardware innovation.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
Yeah, true. We'll probably hear about this in January.
Shadow_FFVI
Member
So are we looking at the Xbox One taking the lead in the US by the end of December?
I'm sure the family/non-young-male market will show up eventually to these consoles to pick up call of duty, assassins creed, call of duty, uncharted, assassins creed, forza, call of duty, last of us 2, assassins creed, halo, knack 2, call of duty and call of duty. They're just waiting for the hardware prices to drop to pick all those up.
No. There's a 700k(?) difference between the two. There's no way XB1 will be able to do that in December alone.
I did not. My bad.
But then I ask, what hardware innovation? What have I missed?
Are you talking about things like turf wars? Using the GPS to overtake a map and lose some weight at the same time?
Welfare
Member
Unless MS get 2 million sales in December, no way.
Sony has said that demographic has adopted the PS4 faster than any PS before.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not really sure why you feel the need to contest the idea that more price sensitive demo-/psychographic markets are typically late or laggard adopters of technology products with a strawman about what complementary goods those segments would buy said products for based on what's selling well to a completely different segment.
What market does remain will not be buying for COD obviously, they'll be buying for titles aimed at those segments. What market does remain may be insubstantial. But determination of what market does remain now 13 months into these systems isn't sound given typical adoption patterns.
What market does remain will not be buying for COD obviously, they'll be buying for titles aimed at those segments. What market does remain may be insubstantial. But determination of what market does remain now 13 months into these systems isn't sound given typical adoption patterns.
MightyHedgehog
Member
They have a reasonable shot at it since December usually has an almost doubling effect on November hardware sales. If you doubt that, you can look at past NPDs. The trend for November doubling October and for December doubling November is pretty strong for popular system assuming good stock availability. There's a reason the marketing machine starts around that time and discounts are deeper to entice more buyers into the arena since the last two months of the calendar year usually always end up making up more than fifty percent of all hardware and software sales for the entire year, dwarfing all preceding ten months.
There is a quote button you know
The family/non-young-male demos are indeed price sensitive and history has certainly shown that. I agree with that.
The issue, as Opiate has repeatedly mentioned, is that the software focus of the majority of publishers isn't going to attract those kinds of demographics. Less software that costs more money to make, with less risk taking and more homogenization (and monetization) and yearly sequelization isn't going to be bringing the family market into play. Many of the studios that were making that kind of software on consoles are doing it elsewhere or have been reassigned. What was once ps2 or wii shovelware is now on game platforms that sell outside of the young male demos. Id say that even with lower priced hardware and late adoption the shelves are pretty bare for these kinds of consumers and will likely continue to be for most or all of this generation.
Now maybe I'm wrong and Activision will assign never soft to make something else 2 years from now. But that there is a narrower software focus from all major publishers (and less of it, and more expensive, and lower risk) this generation isn't really disputable even after only a year or two into it.
IndoAssassin
Banned
Did Sony end up selling out of their BF bundles?
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Next year is going to be so interesting. If you ask me, Microsoft will inevitably release Xbox One Slim right after E3.
They have already fixed their messaging a lot. next step is definitely a new hardware.
My question is, since I wasn't on GAF during the E3 when Don Mattrick announced Xbox 360 Slim, was it a surprised? or it was leaked prior to the event?
Of course they did. But not as fast as Xbox one cleared.
They have already fixed their messaging a lot. next step is definitely a new hardware.
My question is, since I wasn't on GAF during the E3 when Don Mattrick announced Xbox 360 Slim, was it a surprised? or it was leaked prior to the event?
Of course they did. But not as fast as Xbox one cleared.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm on a phone and yours was the last post at the time I began that and this post. It may not be now...
Anyway, I don't dispute there's been consolidation. That's occured in core and casual segments. The toys to life segment is the major investment by publishers in the family/kid market right now. From memory, Sony has specified demographic expansion as a focus in 2015.
And again I doubt all the market can be retained or regained. Mobile is too pervasive. But the full picture on what remains, remains to be seen.
Anyway, I don't dispute there's been consolidation. That's occured in core and casual segments. The toys to life segment is the major investment by publishers in the family/kid market right now. From memory, Sony has specified demographic expansion as a focus in 2015.
And again I doubt all the market can be retained or regained. Mobile is too pervasive. But the full picture on what remains, remains to be seen.
When were these historical adoption patterns? They weren't the adoption patterns last generation; families/women/etc. bought in early. It isn't the adoption pattern with mobile units, either.
No. However, buying up a bunch of suppliers and predatory pricing is. But as and v Intel showed, it can work nicely.
I'm not saying ms is or isn't doing that, just that their are reasons why ms hasn't dumped 5 or 6 billion in price subsidies and purchased ea and Activision in order to kill PlayStation and Nintendo.
IndoAssassin
Banned
How many of the 1200k xboxes sold was the cod, sso, and kinect bundles? Would these have offset some of the losses if there were any?
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, they did, with the Wii, sure. I don't feel the need to rehash a discussion we've had before about the ways in which the system differed from typicality in terms of demographic profiles and innovation diffusion in the console sector. The 360 and PS3 followed more typical adoption patterns for the console segment, with relative importance of different value drivers changing over time.
Also, I'm curious in how you'd describe the adoption of mobile either at a new model level or on a broader market level as following an adoption pattern where "families and women" and/or more price sensitive segments constitute the early adopter set, as opposed to technology enthusiasts/high end shoppers. Like where the first in line at the Apple store for the iPhone 6 is a lower/middle income mother of two, with little interest in technology, limited disposable income and low brand loyalty.
Nightengale
Member
Larogue
Member
Well, Amazon chart for December (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-12/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_2?ie=UTF8&pg=2#1).
Shows that Xbox One is at #1 and PS4 at #38. If this gives any indication, then we are going to see huge lead for the Xbox One in December for sure.
Son of Sam
Banned
Damn 163 pages... was there any delicious salt that i missed?
Women will spend money if there is utillity in something. A device that can bring them closer to family and friends has potent utility. Same applies to consoles.
Welfare
Member
Doing 2 million or close to it would be Peak 360 and Wii level performance. I don't see it happening on the Xbox Ones second December at $350. Also the doubling effect from November to December has gone down since the beginning of the 7th generation.
MightyHedgehog
Member
No one can know that answer without privileged and proprietary information on the contracts and costs involved. Besides, the upfront loss or profit isn't the issue when it's simply a value proposition that gets a consumer to buy into an ecosystem. They count on them to get a Live Gold subscription card, a pre-paid Live credit code, and a game and/or controller and other accessories to make a profit from. They usually calculate these kinds of purchase possibilities with the season and what you need to go with it to make up losses on the boxed package itself. I believe the usual expectation is that one game purchase in addition to the system means break-even, in general. Include a download code for a digital game, and you get them introduced to the Xbox store and possible digital purchases right off the bat. Include a multiplayer game, and you raise the chance that they'll buy a Gold sub to play multiplayer. It's not the console box and package that makes money, it's all the purchases around it. Razors and blades. Same goes for anyone seeking to make money in the console arena.
No one expected last year's next-gen consoles sales numbers to be so high, just like this year's are above expectations, way above expectations. It's not a crazy possibility considering the heights we're already seeing for hardware numbers this early.
IndoAssassin
Banned
So we have done a full circle now. Before it was Xbox is selling fine just PS4 is selling like crazy. Now PS4 is selling fine but Xbox is selling like crazy?
If you look at Apple's demographic, women and children often buy very early (As in within 3 months of the release of a new phone). They aren't exclusive early adopters, of course, but they aren't an enormous minority the way they are with, say, a new Xbox.
I think this entire discussion is a rehash: yes, the PS2 got casual consumers late, but things have changed enormously in the decade since then. At that time, consoles faced no real competition; iOS didn't exist, Facebook didn't exist, Android didn't exist, PC was still a far more "Core" oriented place without all the casual portals it has today.
The PS2 could afford to treat these demographics as second class citizens because competition was virtually non-existent. In the modern landscape, you can't reasonably expect to win these demographics to any large degree unless you're actually designing your platform around them as primary customers, which the PS4 has decidedly not done.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Did Aqua post LTD for Wii U as she did for PS4 and Xbone? I have 3.08 million.
Still holding out for Wii and PS3 sales. I'm guessing Vita LTD is over 2 mil now.
Still holding out for Wii and PS3 sales. I'm guessing Vita LTD is over 2 mil now.
travisbickle
Member
Not really. There was a lot of WOWs and OH SHITs when we believed CBOAT's message of a 10k gap in sales, but after Creamsugar put the record straight there was a calm of MS's plan worked.
Son of Sam
Banned
CBOAT got shot down again? What did cream sugar say?
IndoAssassin
Banned
Has software attachment rates improved or still the same?
RowdyReverb
Member
I'm curious about this. I wonder if they're casual enough to follow the annual sports game strategy of supporting last gen for years to come. No joke, I know 40-year-old parents who play CoD from time to time on their kids' 360 who would be disappointed if it were next gen only.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think value propositions can be modified and repositioned. Different value drivers can be emphasised/reweighted/augmented given adequate investment in doing so.
It's not about first and second class citizens, it's about practicalities, significance in terms of size and spending, prioritization, strategic importance. Trying to target disparate segments simultaneously (and failing) results in a Wii U, and the improvement in the systems fortunes, moderate as they may be have been the result of repositioning and focus (although not to an adequate extent) towards the market with which they have strengths.
If you want to refer solely to last generation, then such circumstance occurred for the 360 in the US market, and the PS3 in the European markets. Neither the $400 nor $600 system was designed towards the family consumer as the primary market, the propositions were modified over the course of the cycle. The PS3 wasn't even designed at first instance towards the more mainstream core market.
Even simply looking at the current generation systems, the XBO's proposition has been dramatically altered towards better serving the needs of a target market segment, to positive results, over the course of months.
That isn't to say that such repositioning will definitely work, or that there is necessarily a substantial market waiting in the wings.
I think I've asked before already, but what kind of console product do you even envisage would primarily target high price sensitive consumers first and foremost, and then subsequently still maintain other market segments. Should they have made Ouyas?
Isn't the push for the smaller games just not *filler*(as some than less people would say) but also for just that market? Not the intimidation of a AAA game to try and pull in the masses but many small experiences that are for everyone so they can lull them in? Of course the allure if the big and shiny must still be there but the plethora of these small experiences that exist must have another use than just existing.
I have nothing to base this on other than a feeling that it's there to lull the casual market in as much as it is there to make sure we have games to play between the big and shiny.
Don't they always rise as praxis? Those bundles came with a lot of games and the already established market will buy more games* during these times?
*Buy 2 pay for one and such things.
Yes, I'm saying it won't work. It worked in the past (As in 10+ years ago), because effectively the only alternative for "Casual" gamers was literally to just not play games.
There is a substantial market interested, as the Wii and now iOS and Facebook make clear. You may not call this "treating them as second class citizens," and that's fine, but the idea is essential; you can't create a product built around and focused primarily on "core" consumers, then expect to pull in casual consumers at the end just because the price is cheaper. You could in 2004, but not in 2014.
An Ouya like device might have been plausible if supported robustly. Something which is definitely cheaper, smaller, simpler, and also different. I'm not sure what that difference is, or I'd already be a millionaire.
I think it's the best shot they have, definitely. Indie games are the most likely place that consoles have for a breakout hit that taps the casual audience again.
Welfare
Member
Xbox One was below my expectations this November
It would be amazing to see people pick up the next gen consoles that fast, but still. I don't think 2 million will happen this december.
But if it does that would be very telling on the fact that price trumps anything else.
travisbickle
Member
Was I an unwitting participant in a sting operation?
The breakout of Minecraft really shows that grabbing a casual audience doesn't need the R+D of a new peripheral or totally new system. I really believe there will be more hits from small developers who are able to produce titles without having a core demographic to appease.
The breakout of Minecraft really shows that grabbing a casual audience doesn't need the R+D of a new peripheral or totally new system. I really believe there will be more hits from small developers who are able to produce titles without having a core demographic to appease.
IndoAssassin
Banned
I guess I was more wondering if Xbox still has the higher attachment rate
shinra-bansho
Member
You could in 2010 though. For the last 3 years of the 7th generation, the 360 transitioned towards market leadership through a broadening of its tent.
2014 is obviously not 2010 either. But you seem to be ignoring a more recent example of successful repositioning as a cycle progresses.
Also, I don't think simply lowering the price is a sufficient repositioning now, but nor was it in 2004 or 2010 or 1994 or any year in between.
On your other point, I don't really know where exactly the take-away has been that these segments want "different" for the sake of different. Accessible, yes, in all myriad meaning of the word.
(I don't know where smaller comes into it at all, as I don't really see how the size of these devices is a limiting factor right now in their market penetration.)
I would venture to say that your Wii U figure is very good.
Using 2 million for PSV would also be a very reasonable approximation, again in my opinion.
Isn't this supposed to be coming to WiiU? I think their inclusion of HTML5 based games is a good thing.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
I wonder then if cheaper prices would work, or if it's...down to the software.
I'm quesy on that last front, b/c it's borderline stereotyping imho. I've known plenty of girls that are into GTA and COD and guys who go hard into stuff like Just Dance or Animal Crossing for example. I would say more variety in themes and genres would be nice but that's something that'd take a long time to correct :S
Yep. And it's not even just that; plain truth is not everyone wants Microsoft's money in that way.
For example just look at the SF5 deal; I strongly doubt Ono'd of gone over to MS even if they offered twice or three times the money Sony did.
Some folks can believe it or not, but not everyone in the industry makes their decisions purely about the money.
Holy crap! This game looks amazing. Gonna fire it up in Chrome. That music alone is awesome.
Can not say for sure but according to posters on neoseeker it was a possibility the developer was hoping for. Nothing substantial yet but I'm waiting for the Kickstarter and there we will see what they are planning for.
creamsugar
Member
LTD SW in $
1st Party:
NWU ~ 50%
XBO ~ 28%
PS4 ~ 22%
3rd Party:
XBO ~ 42%
PS4 ~ 47%
NWU ~ 11%
Grand total:
PS4 ~ 41%
XBO ~ 38%
NWU ~ 21%
1st Party:
NWU ~ 50%
XBO ~ 28%
PS4 ~ 22%
3rd Party:
XBO ~ 42%
PS4 ~ 47%
NWU ~ 11%
Grand total:
PS4 ~ 41%
XBO ~ 38%
NWU ~ 21%
GBA sold 66m by the quarter that DS came out, and that was after 3 yrs, 9 mos. NDS after 3 yrs, 5 mos was about 71m, for comparison (using Nintendo's FY spreadsheet).
Total units, NDS was way above GBA, yes, but the GBA was a beast in sales itself for the short time it was available before its successor came out.
Edit:
Can you give the total 1st:3rd LTD SW in $ ratio, too? I think with that, we should be able to figure out individual system 1st:3rd SW $ ratio, then.
creamsugar
Member
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