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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Javin98

Banned
Damn, I'm way off, like about 250K off in total. Horrible month for me. Expected both consoles to do much better than this.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
So far, i'm off by 209k with PS4+XB1. Wii U was perfect.

...Wait for 3DS at this point. But if is at 115k, then, i'm in TOP 15 of the best predictor of this month. Not bad. :p
 

DrWong

Member
So far, i'm off by 209k with PS4+XB1. Wii U was perfect.

...Wait for 3DS at this point. But if is at 115k, then, i'm in TOP 15 of the best predictor of this month. Not bad. :p
If my math is right I'm off by 181K. If 3DS can be around 105/110 it'd be cool even if I guessed the order wrong regarding One and PS4·

My prediction:

[3DS] 109K
[PS4] 396K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 352K

I shouldn't have edited/rised One and PS4 and stick to my first lower numbers :[
 

Welfare

Member
While we wait 84 years for the 3DS number, could we get a recount for September's prediction thread? We have accurate numbers for the home consoles now.
 
While we wait 84 years for the 3DS number, could we get a recount for September's prediction thread? We have accurate numbers for the home consoles now.

sure why not

it's hilarious how Kayant got shoved from #1 to out of the top 10 entirely (11th units/17th points) because of the wrong numbers
 

donny2112

Member
While we wait 84 years for the 3DS number, could we get a recount for September's prediction thread? We have accurate numbers for the home consoles now.

I can do a theoretical recount, but I don't want to set a precedent of going back and changing rankings every time we get an updated number for a past month. That way lies madness. Therefore, it wouldn't actually change the rankings used for annual results, but we could see how it would've turned out if we had had more accurate data. Capisce?
 

Welfare

Member
I can do a theoretical recount, but I don't want to set a precedent of going back and changing rankings every time we get an updated number for a past month. That way lies madness. Therefore, it wouldn't actually change the rankings used for annual results, but we could see how it would've turned out if we had had more accurate data. Capisce?

Yeah, sure.
 

donny2112

Member
Yeah, sure.

Okay, thanks. Just didn't want to open up a Pandora's Box there. (~_^)

Using the below values for September's results would've resulted in the below rankings.

If we had used ...

1. PS4 - 354K (we used 340K)
2. XB1 - 293K (we used 280K)
3. 3DS - 123K (this is what we did use)
4. WIU - 88K (we used 85K)

(The real kicker to our calculations is that XB1 was up YOY. There was a news article saying it was down YOY, and that threw us off. :-/)

NeoGAF September NPD Prediction results (if better actual sales numbers had been used)

Units

1. Kayant - 34,000
2. aaronwt - 37,000
3. DrWong - 40,000
3. Tratorn - 40,000
5. astrogamer - 42,000
6. NateDrake - 43,000
7. Hammer24 - 44,000
7. der_feine_herr - 44,000
9. 1st Course - 46,000
9. shinra-bansho - 46,000
11. skedar897 - 48,000
12. CorporateClown - 49,000
13. specialK - 53,000
14. Canis lupus - 55,000
14. Sterok - 55,000
16. ConfusedGamer - 59,000
16. Spazgadget - 59,000
16. ZachzOOming - 59,000
19. Darth Smurf X - 60,000
20. Tubie - 63,000
21. Bruno MB - 64,000
21. Rymuth - 64,000
21. prag16 - 64,000
24. foxbeldin - 65,000
25. jayu26 - 66,000
26. Ombala - 67,000
27. Crimson_Gold - 68,000
27. watdaeff4 - 68,000
29. GAF_Agg - 69,700
30. Rand6 - 70,000
30. SupperCrunch - 70,000
32. Bgamer90 - 75,000
32. Kill3r7 - 75,000
34. KillerMan91 - 79,000
35. Welfare - 80,000
36. BlackBuzzard - 83,000
37. madp0k - 84,000
37. theprodigy - 84,000
39. Elios83 - 85,000
39. Straight Edge - 85,000
39. doicare - 85,000
42. Triggerhappytel - 89,000
42. andy_lhc - 89,000
44. Loudninja - 90,000
44. Raider1874 - 90,000
44. TheCarrotKiller - 90,000
44. noobie - 90,000
44. robo - 90,000
49. pitseleh - 91,000
50. Asd202 - 92,000
50. allan-bh - 92,000
50. archnemesis - 92,000
50. donny2112 - 92,000
54. Mister Megative - 93,000
54. RexNovis - 93,000
56. Pillville - 94,000
57. Road - 95,000
57. jjonez18 - 95,000
57. orfax - 95,000
60. Final Verdict - 96,000
60. wachie - 96,000
62. HanzSnubSnub - 99,000
62. The 8-Bit Raider - 99,000
64. Sangetsu-II - 101,000
65. Man-is-Obsolete - 103,000
66. im_dany - 104,000
67. GamerJM - 109,000
67. Ryng_Tolu - 109,000
67. bud23 - 109,000
70. jroc74 - 110,000
71. Chobel - 113,000
71. Giriath_89 - 113,000
71. OleGunner - 113,000
74. ascii42 - 115,000
75. Polip Fawn - 118,000
76. Elandyll - 120,000
77. Fat4all - 121,000
78. Toro - 128,000
78. super6646 - 128,000
80. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 129,000
81. 5Twist - 132,000
82. Javin98 - 134,000
82. Megadragon15 - 134,000
84. panda-zebra - 136,000
85. freefornow - 137,000
86. anexanhume - 138,000
87. Sloane_Ranger - 140,000
88. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 141,000
89. IAmRandom31 - 143,000
89. Jigorath - 143,000
91. slavesnyder - 144,000
92. Serenity - 145,000
93. GameWhisperer - 148,000
94. Tivor Tontomo - 149,000
94. michaelius - 149,000
96. ghost4soul - 150,000
97. Zero-Crescent - 152,000
98. gtj1092 - 155,000
99. DriftingSpirit - 159,000
99. ethomaz - 159,000
101. Possumowner - 160,000
102. Prototype Viktor - 167,000
103. samar11 - 168,000
104. roninwarrior92 - 175,000
105. Venom Fox - 191,000
106. harrisk954 - 193,000
107. Conduit - 205,000
108. mejin - 215,000
109. Jamix012 - 217,000
109. Michael Armbrust - 217,000
111. Blobbers - 223,000
112. d0hv - 232,000
113. Stanng243 - 235,000
114. perfectchaos007 - 246,000
115. DieH@rd - 250,000
116. renjworks - 251,000
117. Pachter - 253,000
118. daniel77733 - 254,000
119. twinturbo2 - 257,000
120. Bioshocker - 269,000
121. MasterSheen - 275,000
122. Aeqvitas - 284,000
123. orochi91 - 314,000
124. Apt101 - 320,000
125. tearsintherain - 323,000


Points
Code:
 September 2015
01.  Kayant                 119.17
02.  aaronwt                114.98
03.  Tratorn                113.47
04.  DrWong                 113.45
05.  astrogamer             108.84
06.  NateDrake              108.08
07.  shinra-bansho          105.63
08.  Hammer24               105.56
09.  der_feine_herr         104.99
10.  prag16                 102.46
11.  ZachzOOming            102.28
12.  foxbeldin              101.93
13.  1st Course             101.74
14.  Raider1874             101.43
15.  Darth Smurf X          101.35
16.  skedar897              100.81
17.  Sterok                 100.76
18.  CorporateClown         100.66
19.  jayu26                 100.59
20.  Ombala                 100.52
21.  Rand6                  100.48
22.  Elios83                100.34
23.  BlackBuzzard           100.19
24.  Rymuth                 100.14
25.  Canis lupus             99.84
26.  Spazgadget              99.82
27.  Bruno MB                99.64
28.  pitseleh                99.61
29.  Mister Megative         99.28
30.  noobie                  99.18
31.  Giriath_89              98.76
32.  IAmRandom31             98.66
33.  Kill3r7                 98.39
34.  im_dany                 98.39
35.  theprodigy              98.33
36.  watdaeff4               98.10
37.  Straight Edge           98.02
38.  doicare                 97.94
39.  TheCarrotKiller         97.86
40.  donny2112               97.58
41.  Tubie                   97.55
42.  specialK                97.44
43.  Asd202                  97.28
44.  Ryng_Tolu               97.12
45.  archnemesis             97.10
46.  ConfusedGamer           97.09
47.  Loudninja               97.08
48.  The 8-Bit Raider        96.79
49.  5Twist                  96.65
50.  samar11                 96.62
 

donny2112

Member
Based on some estimates in the NPD thread, we can use 110K for the 3DS number. Results, ahoy!

NeoGAF Prediction Results - October 2015

Units

1. michaelius - 50,000
2. shinra-bansho - 77,000
3. Road - 91,000
4. Pachter - 98,000
5. donny2112 - 104,000
6. The 8-Bit Raider - 107,000
7. archnemesis - 114,000
8. ArkhamFantasy - 127,000
8. Mattenth - 127,000
10. allan-bh - 137,000
11. doicare - 139,000
12. Cow Goes Moo - 147,000
13. Dinjooh - 151,000
14. jayu26 - 159,000
15. elite09 - 160,000
16. Dougieflesh - 162,000
16. GamerJM - 162,000
16. HanzSnubSnub - 162,000
19. freefornow - 171,000
20. CorporateClown - 176,000
21. madp0k - 177,000
22. DrWong - 181,000
23. KillerMan91 - 187,000
23. Tubie - 187,000
23. theprodigy - 187,000
26. DriftingSpirit - 192,000
27. RexNovis - 193,000
28. Lebon14 - 198,000
29. MasterSheen - 201,000
30. roninwarrior92 - 203,000
30. skedar897 - 203,000
32. perfectchaos007 - 204,000
33. Las7 - 207,000
34. Michael Armbrust - 212,000
34. daniel77733 - 212,000
34. jacks81x - 212,000
37. Beysus - 217,000
37. LordOcidax - 217,000
37. Serenity - 217,000
40. Apt101 - 222,000
40. Rand6 - 222,000
42. Tratorn - 222,062
43. Asd202 - 224,000
44. 1st Course - 227,000
44. NDP_Mulcair - 227,000
44. Ryng_Tolu - 227,000
44. pitseleh - 227,000
44. tattooed_dwarf - 227,000
49. Final Verdict - 228,000
50. Loudninja - 229,000
51. noobie - 230,000
52. panda-zebra - 234,000
53. Hammer24 - 235,000
54. Brew124 - 236,000
55. Welfare - 237,000
56. ZachzOOming - 239,000
57. ghost4soul - 240,000
58. Darth Smurf X - 242,000
58. Sangetsu-II - 242,000
58. foxbeldin - 242,000
61. robo - 246,000
62. Pillville - 247,000
62. super6646 - 247,000
64. Ombala - 249,000
65. Kayant - 250,000
66. Cripshay - 252,000
66. Elios83 - 252,000
66. ascii42 - 252,000
66. xtwo - 252,000
70. TheCarrotKiller - 255,000
71. jroc74 - 257,000
72. 3rdamention - 259,000
72. Rymuth - 259,000
74. GAF_Agg - 260,500
75. jjonez18 - 262,000
76. slavesnyder - 263,000
77. Chobel - 265,000
78. Jamix012 - 272,000
79. Javin98 - 273,000
80. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 275,000
81. Elandyll - 277,000
81. Stanng243 - 277,000
83. orochi91 - 282,000
84. AmaterasuOni - 285,000
85. ethomaz - 287,000
85. orfax - 287,000
87. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 292,000
87. Kill3r7 - 292,000
87. SupperCrunch - 292,000
90. ConfusedGamer - 294,000
91. FullMetaltech - 296,000
92. andy_lhc - 297,000
92. harrisk954 - 297,000
94. thenameDS - 301,000
95. Bruno MB - 302,000
96. Blobbers - 312,000
96. Sterok - 312,000
98. Megadragon15 - 317,000
98. prag16 - 317,000
100. astrogamer - 318,000
101. Beant - 322,000
101. Dangoesforth - 322,000
101. Man-is-Obsolete - 322,000
101. gtj1092 - 322,000
101. mejin - 322,000
106. Prototype Viktor - 323,000
107. BlackBuzzard - 325,000
107. devilsadvocat - 325,000
109. Pocky4Th3Win - 327,000
110. Aeqvitas - 337,000
110. bluedawgs - 337,000
112. LifEndz - 338,000
113. NateDrake - 342,000
114. Bgamer90 - 346,000
114. Blanquito - 346,000
116. Conduit - 347,000
117. Kenzodielocke - 351,000
118. Fat4all - 353,000
118. NeloAnjelo - 353,000
120. PhineasRed - 354,000
121. Possumowner - 357,000
122. OlgerO - 362,000
123. yukianderson - 363,000
124. Amentallica - 372,000
124. anexanhume - 372,000
126. bryanee - 377,000
126. tearsintherain - 377,000
128. jbluzb - 381,850
129. aaronwt - 392,000
130. Griml┐ck - 395,000
131. 5Twist - 402,000
131. Omiee - 402,000
131. twinturbo2 - 402,000
134. Crimson_Gold - 406,000
135. Primethius - 414,000
136. Blackleg-sanji1 - 417,000
137. SomewhatGroovy - 432,000
138. Zero-Crescent - 443,000
139. RibMan - 447,000
139. bud23 - 447,000
141. TheJoRu - 454,000
142. wachie - 459,000
143. DieH@rd - 491,000
144. ninjabat - 496,000
145. IAmRandom31 - 547,000
146. pager99 - 787,000


Points
Code:
     October 2015                    Overall 2015 Top (8/10)
01.  michaelius             121.37   donny2112              819.42
02.  Road                   112.56   shinra-bansho          813.55
03.  shinra-bansho          103.80   allan-bh               810.14
04.  donny2112              103.39   Road                   799.60
05.  archnemesis             98.40   madp0k                 792.35
06.  Mattenth                97.65   archnemesis            791.48
07.  Pachter                 97.13   freefornow             787.18
08.  HanzSnubSnub            95.92   jayu26                 786.39
09.  Cow Goes Moo            95.81   michaelius             785.95
10.  allan-bh                94.04   BlackBuzzard           781.56
11.  jayu26                  92.04   Welfare                778.48
12.  KillerMan91             91.60   Tratorn                777.86
13.  freefornow              90.69   Javin98                775.21
14.  The 8-Bit Raider        89.13   theprodigy             775.07
15.  Asd202                  88.50   astrogamer             771.19
16.  Las7                    88.40   doicare                769.91
17.  Welfare                 87.95   Final Verdict          769.25
18.  panda-zebra             87.76   RexNovis               768.72
19.  ArkhamFantasy           87.46   Bruno MB               760.65
20.  jacks81x                87.41   skedar897              758.60
21.  Kayant                  85.18   Chobel                 758.50
22.  Hammer24                85.03   KillerMan91            757.08
23.  doicare                 84.55   Ombala                 756.92
24.  Pillville               84.25   CorporateClown         755.42
25.  slavesnyder             83.48   Megadragon15           753.32
26.  GifGafIsTheBestGaf      82.57   Darth Smurf X          751.44
27.  Chobel                  81.86   Rymuth                 750.78
28.  GamerJM                 81.82   noobie                 749.49
29.  CorporateClown          81.10   Sangetsu-II            748.79
30.  DrWong                  80.88   Trust me, I'm a PhD    748.33
31.  Beysus                  80.84   1st Course             747.49
32.  skedar897               80.79   TheCarrotKiller        740.51
33.  Dinjooh                 80.58   slavesnyder            738.61
34.  theprodigy              80.56   prag16                 738.31
35.  RexNovis                80.40   Kill3r7                737.73
36.  Dougieflesh             80.18   Pillville              737.62
37.  super6646               80.18   Elandyll               733.92
38.  DriftingSpirit          80.05   pitseleh               732.56
39.  perfectchaos007         80.03   orfax                  730.98
40.  MasterSheen             79.64   5Twist                 730.54
41.  devilsadvocat           79.43   Elios83                728.93
42.  orfax                   79.33   Asd202                 727.38
43.  Tubie                   79.28   Prototype Viktor       724.75
44.  ConfusedGamer           79.10   Zero-Crescent          723.46
45.  Megadragon15            78.80   DrWong                 720.00
46.  Michael Armbrust        78.50   Kayant                 718.61
47.  Rand6                   78.46   jjonez18               717.74
48.  roninwarrior92          78.46   wachie                 717.67
49.  Kill3r7                 78.15   anexanhume             716.63
50.  LordOcidax              78.07   gtj1092                716.39

Congratulations, michaelius! :D
 

freefornow

Gold Member
Congrats michaelius! And thanks to donny2112. The month with Halo and PS4 price drops proved to be interesting indeed.

Next month though.................................
 

allan-bh

Member
Happy to be in top 10 for the month, but unfortunately my overall lead come to an end.

Congratulations michaelius for the month and donny2112 for reach the top overall.
 

Kayant

Member
NeoGAF September NPD Prediction results (if better actual sales numbers had been used)

Units
1. Kayant - 34,000

Points
01. Kayant - 119.17


NeoGAF Prediction Results - October 2015

Units
65. Kayant - 250,000

Points
21. Kayant - 85.18
Sigh at least I did well for once :)

Congrats michaelius also
pager99 - 787,000
Wow!
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Based on some estimates in the NPD thread, we can use 110K for the 3DS number. Results, ahoy!

NeoGAF Prediction Results - October 2015

Units

44. Ryng_Tolu - 227,000

Not that bad all considering, i just overestimated like shit both PS4 and XB1, but less than many others Guys.

Congrats michaelius.
 

Javin98

Banned
Based on some estimates in the NPD thread, we can use 110K for the 3DS number. Results, ahoy!

NeoGAF Prediction Results - October 2015

Units

79. Javin98 - 273,000

Overall 2015 Top (8/10)
13. Javin98 775.21
Damn, that is not good at all. At least I'm still at #13 in the overall ranking. Hope I do better for November. Regardless, it will be interesting!
 

madp0k

Member
bugger, down to 5th overall

oh well hoping to stay in the top 10 after the next 2 months and that'll be a good prediction year

wish we had used the proper numbers for the previous month, I wasn't too bad with those lol
 

donny2112

Member
Hey Donny, could you please post a longer overall list? And how many mulligans are in?

2 mulligans, which is the final level for the year.

Top 100 points:

Points
Code:
     October 2015                    Overall 2015 Top (8/10)
01.  michaelius             121.37   donny2112              819.42
02.  Road                   112.56   shinra-bansho          813.55
03.  shinra-bansho          103.80   allan-bh               810.14
04.  donny2112              103.39   Road                   799.60
05.  archnemesis             98.40   madp0k                 792.35
06.  Mattenth                97.65   archnemesis            791.48
07.  Pachter                 97.13   freefornow             787.18
08.  HanzSnubSnub            95.92   jayu26                 786.39
09.  Cow Goes Moo            95.81   michaelius             785.95
10.  allan-bh                94.04   BlackBuzzard           781.56
11.  jayu26                  92.04   Welfare                778.48
12.  KillerMan91             91.60   Tratorn                777.86
13.  freefornow              90.69   Javin98                775.21
14.  The 8-Bit Raider        89.13   theprodigy             775.07
15.  Asd202                  88.50   astrogamer             771.19
16.  Las7                    88.40   doicare                769.91
17.  Welfare                 87.95   Final Verdict          769.25
18.  panda-zebra             87.76   RexNovis               768.72
19.  ArkhamFantasy           87.46   Bruno MB               760.65
20.  jacks81x                87.41   skedar897              758.60
21.  Kayant                  85.18   Chobel                 758.50
22.  Hammer24                85.03   KillerMan91            757.08
23.  doicare                 84.55   Ombala                 756.92
24.  Pillville               84.25   CorporateClown         755.42
25.  slavesnyder             83.48   Megadragon15           753.32
26.  GifGafIsTheBestGaf      82.57   Darth Smurf X          751.44
27.  Chobel                  81.86   Rymuth                 750.78
28.  GamerJM                 81.82   noobie                 749.49
29.  CorporateClown          81.10   Sangetsu-II            748.79
30.  DrWong                  80.88   Trust me, I'm a PhD    748.33
31.  Beysus                  80.84   1st Course             747.49
32.  skedar897               80.79   TheCarrotKiller        740.51
33.  Dinjooh                 80.58   slavesnyder            738.61
34.  theprodigy              80.56   prag16                 738.31
35.  RexNovis                80.40   Kill3r7                737.73
36.  Dougieflesh             80.18   Pillville              737.62
37.  super6646               80.18   Elandyll               733.92
38.  DriftingSpirit          80.05   pitseleh               732.56
39.  perfectchaos007         80.03   orfax                  730.98
40.  MasterSheen             79.64   5Twist                 730.54
41.  devilsadvocat           79.43   Elios83                728.93
42.  orfax                   79.33   Asd202                 727.38
43.  Tubie                   79.28   Prototype Viktor       724.75
44.  ConfusedGamer           79.10   Zero-Crescent          723.46
45.  Megadragon15            78.80   DrWong                 720.00
46.  Michael Armbrust        78.50   Kayant                 718.61
47.  Rand6                   78.46   jjonez18               717.74
48.  roninwarrior92          78.46   wachie                 717.67
49.  Kill3r7                 78.15   anexanhume             716.63
50.  LordOcidax              78.07   gtj1092                716.39
51.  Ryng_Tolu               78.05   jroc74                 715.67
52.  Tratorn                 77.90   Jamix012               713.59
53.  astrogamer              77.83   aaronwt                713.15
54.  Lebon14                 77.72   andy_lhc               712.55
55.  Sangetsu-II             77.45   Rand6                  712.41
56.  Brew124                 77.42   Crimson_Gold           710.94
57.  madp0k                  77.17   Hammer24               710.91
58.  ZachzOOming             76.61   ConfusedGamer          709.02
59.  elite09                 76.20   mejin                  707.66
60.  Beant                   76.17   MasterSheen            702.82
61.  Apt101                  75.98   Conduit                697.45
62.  Final Verdict           75.90   Randolph Freelander    684.16
63.  tattooed_dwarf          75.81   ascii42                683.39
64.  1st Course              75.81   GamerJM                671.23
65.  robo                    75.50   Bgamer90               669.97
66.  Rymuth                  75.40   Pachter                668.67
67.  foxbeldin               75.30   Untalkative_Bunny      656.63
68.  Serenity                75.11   GifGafIsTheBestGaf     625.45
69.  pitseleh                75.03   Fat4all                602.41
70.  jjonez18                74.99   Sterok                 587.76
71.  ascii42                 74.97   vinnygambini           572.43
72.  Darth Smurf X           74.47   ghost4soul             572.34
73.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     74.42   John Bender            550.93
74.  Elios83                 74.39   NateDrake              523.34
75.  Cripshay                74.39   robo                   519.96
76.  OlgerO                  74.28   TomShoe                519.91
77.  Loudninja               74.26   daniel77733            514.64
78.  NDP_Mulcair             74.07   Lexxus                 503.28
79.  jroc74                  73.83   monegames              500.05
80.  3rdamention             73.77   Duxxy3                 489.55
81.  Ombala                  73.59   Primethius             486.06
82.  Javin98                 73.34   Apt101                 481.69
83.  noobie                  72.94   ZachzOOming            470.42
84.  TheCarrotKiller         72.54   harrisk954             469.93
85.  orochi91                72.20   bud23                  469.36
86.  Aeqvitas                72.00   Jigorath               466.87
87.  Jamix012                71.58   Gbpackers31            464.97
88.  Elandyll                71.52   IAmRandom31            461.29
89.  SupperCrunch            71.50   panda-zebra            456.53
90.  Bruno MB                71.42   Dedication Through L   440.50
91.  daniel77733             71.30   ninjabat               437.16
92.  thenameDS               70.72   Vena                   435.80
93.  Blobbers                70.55   Stanng243              420.15
94.  BlackBuzzard            69.96   tearsintherain         405.26
95.  xtwo                    69.82   Maxxan                 404.14
96.  AmaterasuOni            69.31   Bioshocker             394.40
97.  Stanng243               69.18   Griml┐ck               392.58
98.  LifEndz                 69.04   SupperCrunch           362.91
99.  andy_lhc                68.83   watdaeff4              356.10
100  SomewhatGroovy          68.45   I2amza                 346.44
 

RexNovis

Banned
2 mulligans, which is the final level for the year.

Top 100 points:

Points
Code:
     October 2015                    Overall 2015 Top (8/10)
18.  panda-zebra             87.76   RexNovis               768.72
35.  RexNovis                80.40   Kill3r7                737.73

Whelp looks like I wont be making the top 10 this year ... (T-T)

I mean I suppose I could magically make up 20 points in the last two months that would be a minor miracle so I'm not holding my breath
 
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