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[markatisu]

The only thing surprising is Rock Band Wii. It sold around 380k in 5 - 6 weeks, holy shit.

Its a sad surprise as well because it probably justifies EA/MTV's decision to release a shit port of the game instead of one that had more features

I wonder if the Track Pack will chart since there are 300-400k potential customers to buy a $29.99 add-on disc

 

[squatingyeti]

What you're saying is that Soul Calibur has a set amount it will sell regardless of the numbers of consoles out there. Surely there are loads of Soul Calibur fans/potential buyers that haven't got on board with this generation yet?

Surely there are and I'm not saying any game in particular. Game sales for X game do not scale with HW install base. Think about it like this, if games sales for X game DID scale with HW sales, then Madden should have been setting all kinds of sales records last gen. The fact of the matter is, just because your install base grows by 10M, it does NOT mean those people have any interest in Madden.

Just because an install base is growing, does not mean they are all, or even the majority of them, are interested in X game.

If your install base is 10 people and 8 of them like Madden, your attach ratio is 80%. The further you move away from just having 10 people, the more likely you are to have less than 8 out of every 10 like Madden. Therefore, if you had a 1M install base, 800k of them need to like Madden to keep an 80% attach ratio. Not gonna happen.

 

[jibblypop]

I wonder if the Track Pack will chart since there are 300-400k potential customers to buy a $29.99 add-on disc

Although it sounds expensive when you put it that way, isn't the track pack actually cheaper than buying the songs through DLC? I'm not positive but I thought I heard that. (however a disadvantage is that you wouldn't be choosing specific songs)

 

[King_Slender]

Yeah, I do think that's right. Only a release will tell whether LBP will be the sea-change that some people think it may be. I agree that it might end up as only a decent selling niche game, which is ENTIRELY WHY I DISAGREE WITH PUTTING WEAPONS IN LBP. Keep it open for now at least, keep it as friendly as possible to kids and non-core gamers including females.

I think LBP's long legs will come from the fact that it continually generates new exciting content from users.. if some brilliant gamers produce good enough tributes, imitations, and original works, they'll be all over Youtube and it might start some fireworks.

Of course, it might sink too. I love the gamble.

Who's to say there won't be "weapons?" Sure, there won't be a gun to shoot things (at least not at launch), but the creativity it allows will certainly lead to people creating environment based weapons at certain points in the game. I think what comes from this game is going to be off the charts.

 

[Huggers]

Surely there are and I'm not saying any game in particular. Game sales for X game do not scale with HW install base. Think about it like this, if games sales for X game DID scale with HW sales, then Madden should have been setting all kinds of sales records last gen. The fact of the matter is, just because your install base grows by 10M, it does NOT mean those people have any interest in Madden.

Just because an install base is growing, does not mean they are all, or even the majority of them, are interested in X game.

If your install base is 10 people and 8 of them like Madden, your attach ratio is 80%. The further you move away from just having 10 people, the more likely you are to have less than 8 out of every 10 like Madden. Therefore, if you had a 1M install base, 800k of them need to like Madden to keep an 80% attach ratio. Not gonna happen.

Ok so lets go another route. If the 360 and the PS3 both had say 10 million consoles out there in peoples homes, do you think the discrepancy between the Soul Calibur 4 would be the same? Or would the numbers align much more closely?

 

[GashPrex]

wait are people actually trying to cite some meaningful difference between 225 and 200 based on NPD tracking, which we know are statistical approximations.

And once again, people think hardware matters for the bottom line, it doesn't.

 

[Pachael]

Based on what? NCAA sold nearly proportional to install base. The major fall multiplatform releases will be a good indicator, however (and madden).

LTD HW: 360-PS3 2.1:1
NCAA 360-PS3: 1.6:1
SC4 360-PS3: 1.4:1

That's where the numbers came from

 

[J-Rzez]

360 NCAA FOOTBALL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS JULY 2008 397.6K
PS3 NCAA FOOTBALL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS JULY 2008 242.5K

360 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA JULY 2008 218.9K
PS3 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA JULY 2008 155.8K

This would probably be the most alarming numbers for MS to be looking at right now. Despite double the install base, the games are not selling at a similar rate anymore. MS loves to tout attach rates, and sales to publishers/devs, this is not going to win any long term favors if this trend continues. It looks like they're losing ground to Sony more than just on the hardware front. Gears 2 "should" put the 360 back in the lime light, if it doesn't then the future is rather bleak.

If there was any way for Sony make a legit price drop (not the "80gb $399" kind), and get a console out the door for $299 this holiday season, they would make a serious step to past Playstation console numbers. Not the millions numbers, but 500k/mo no issue. The PS3 is still plagued with pricing issues and with hyped games like LBP and R2 hitting along with an installment of one of the prior killer franchises in SOCOM, it wouldn't be hard to think of them hitting those numbers a little earlier than the holiday rush.

Wii is still hardware limited. I can find one on shelves around here more often, but there's certainly no pile of them. Other places are still pretty limited as well. I thought by now with people's mounting frustrations with the lack of titles especially that it's sales would start to fizzle out, but it's perhaps hitting that "casual" market (not casual gamers though) where their knowledge is based on local newspaper articles, and the simple games like Wiisports and gimmicky add-ons are doing the trick for those people.

 

[krzyspc]

wait are people actually trying to cite some meaningful difference between 225 and 200 based on NPD tracking, which we know are statistical approximations.

And once again, people think hardware matters for the bottom line, it doesn't.

I would say for Nintendo it does. For the Xbox 360 and PS3 not so much.

 

[King_Slender]

wait are people actually trying to cite some meaningful difference between 225 and 200 based on NPD tracking, which we know are statistical approximations.

And once again, people think hardware matters for the bottom line, it doesn't.

NPD is ACTUAL numbers, but they only track ~60% of the retail market (no online, no Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and probably a few others), so any differences are actually larger - though I put no stock in them when people try to use them to track LTD sales of systems to refute what the manufacturer's release as sold through units.

Bottom line is, these numbers show that there IS room for Nintendo, Microsoft, AND Sony in the market - thanks actually to Nintendo for taking a different tack this generation, which benefitted them the most, but actually helps buoy everybody.

 

[Gamecocks625]

Have the NCAA numbers dropped from previous years? They look kind of low to me.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Considering SW sales for X title don't scale linearly w/HW install base, not really. The market for any title is only Y big. Just because more people own HW A, does not mean that more of them are part of Y. In fact, the bigger the install base of HW grows, the more diverse it is likely to become.

But in the US, the 360 has twice the userbase of the PS3. I agree with your argument to a point, but it didn't change the "OMG, SC2 owned on PS2!!!11" opinions in the past. Not sure why it's relevant now. PEACE.

 

[King_Slender]

360 NCAA FOOTBALL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS JULY 2008 397.6K
PS3 NCAA FOOTBALL 09 ELECTRONIC ARTS JULY 2008 242.5K

360 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA JULY 2008 218.9K
PS3 SOUL CALIBUR IV NAMCO BANDAI GAMES OF AMERICA JULY 2008 155.8K

This would probably be the most alarming numbers for MS to be looking at right now. Despite double the install base, the games are not selling at a similar rate anymore. MS loves to tout attach rates, and sales to publishers/devs, this is not going to win any long term favors if this trend continues. It looks like they're losing ground to Sony more than just on the hardware front. Gears 2 "should" put the 360 back in the lime light, if it doesn't then the future is rather bleak.

If there was any way for Sony make a legit price drop (not the "80gb $399" kind), and get a console out the door for $299 this holiday season, they would make a serious step to past Playstation console numbers. Not the millions numbers, but 500k/mo no issue. The PS3 is still plagued with pricing issues and with hyped games like LBP and R2 hitting along with an installment of one of the prior killer franchises in SOCOM, it wouldn't be hard to think of them hitting those numbers a little earlier than the holiday rush.

Wii is still hardware limited. I can find one on shelves around here more often, but there's certainly no pile of them. Other places are still pretty limited as well. I thought by now with people's mounting frustrations with the lack of titles especially that it's sales would start to fizzle out, but it's perhaps hitting that "casual" market (not casual gamers though) where their knowledge is based on local newspaper articles, and the simple games like Wiisports and gimmicky add-ons are doing the trick for those people.

This. Though from a business perspective, you can't become fixated on just the PS3 numbers - fact is, those 155k PS2s and 200k PSPs that sold are more important than the 225k PS3s that sold for the bottom line. That being said, I don't think Sony is given enough credit for having THREE viable systems in the marketplace right now.

HEll, I'd even like to see them do something else with the PS2 - maybe reduce the size (Discman sized) and drop it to $99 - but it's probably not worth the cost to switch up manufacturing lines to do so.

 

[FrankT]

NPD is ACTUAL numbers, but they only track ~60% of the retail market (no online, no Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and probably a few others), so any differences are actually larger - though I put no stock in them when people try to use them to track LTD sales of systems to refute what the manufacturer's release as sold through units.

Bottom line is, these numbers show that there IS room for Nintendo, Microsoft, AND Sony in the market - thanks actually to Nintendo for taking a different tack this generation, which benefitted them the most, but actually helps buoy everybody.

NPD has been tracking some online for a bit now IIRC. I however cannot find the info as when that started. I'm pretty sure SC posted about it here on GAF awhile back.

LTD HW: 360-PS3 2.1:1
NCAA 360-PS3: 1.6:1
SC4 360-PS3: 1.4:1

That's where the numbers came from

2 games that do not account for the entire year or the rest of the numbers sold for the month really do not say much of anything.

 

[markatisu]

Although it sounds expensive when you put it that way, isn't the track pack actually cheaper than buying the songs through DLC? I'm not positive but I thought I heard that. (however a disadvantage is that you wouldn't be choosing specific songs)

I think its cheaper and if not its about on par, the song selection is very good, I got the track pack the other day for my PS2 (I opted not to buy the Wii one because of what EA did not putting forth any effort)

The song selection is very good (Buddy Holly, Interstate Love Song, More than a Feeling) for the audience so it will be interesting to see if it charts

 

[Zoe]

HEll, I'd even like to see them do something else with the PS2 - maybe reduce the size (Discman sized) and drop it to $99 - but it's probably not worth the cost to switch up manufacturing lines to do so.

They have yet to even bring over the non-brick version, right?

Maybe with the bundle planned for the fall...

 

[botticus]

NPD has been tracking some online for a bit now IIRC. I however cannot find the info as when that started. I'm pretty sure SC posted about it here on GAF awhile back.

They picked up Amazon around the time they lost TRU, I believe.

 

[krzyspc]

NPD is ACTUAL numbers, but they only track ~60% of the retail market (no online, no Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and probably a few others), so any differences are actually larger - though I put no stock in them when people try to use them to track LTD sales of systems to refute what the manufacturer's release as sold through units.

Bottom line is, these numbers show that there IS room for Nintendo, Microsoft, AND Sony in the market - thanks actually to Nintendo for taking a different tack this generation, which benefitted them the most, but actually helps buoy everybody.

I don't think these numbers show there is room for everyone in the market, the pendulum is swinging towards Nintendo and every month that goes it works against the HD consoles more and more.

Now to elaborate on that, the idea of making your console have more bells and whistle is to push the consumer to buy it not just for gaming but for more features. Then you have to deal with HD consoles pushing up development cost significantly from last gen meaning that developers who bank on HD also need to bank on any HD console being number 1 to make porting a reasonable expectation to get as much market as possible of the incurring high cost to operate.

But when you have the Wii leading software sales and hardware month to month it makes developers think twice ala EA who said they should have banked on the Wii. This whole room for all 3 is a window that Nintendo is shrinking and has changed at least in my eyes what to expect for next gen.

 

[Parl]

NPD is ACTUAL numbers, but they only track ~60% of the retail market (no online, no Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and probably a few others), so any differences are actually larger - though I put no stock in them when people try to use them to track LTD sales of systems to refute what the manufacturer's release as sold through units.

Bottom line is, these numbers show that there IS room for Nintendo, Microsoft, AND Sony in the market - thanks actually to Nintendo for taking a different tack this generation, which benefitted them the most, but actually helps buoy everybody.

If people are interested in sold through units, they don't commonly look at the "manufacturer's release" as they only supply their shipped figures (or sold and shipped to retailers) in their financial statements.

They do, however, offer estimates on total sales to end customers, which often use reputable sales trackers such as NPD and Media Create. Sales tracking data isn't used to refute the shipment figures released by manufacturers, but the people who interpret these as installed base, despite the fact that many of the units are not with an end user and won't be for some months (especially in PS3 and 360's case).

 

[Rolf NB]

Based on what? NCAA sold nearly proportional to install base. The major fall multiplatform releases will be a good indicator, however (and madden).

How that? NCAA/360 sold 64% more than NCAA/PS3. Isn't the ratio between the (US) install bases still way above 2:1 at this point?

 

[gkryhewy]

LTD HW: 360-PS3 2.1:1
NCAA 360-PS3: 1.6:1
SC4 360-PS3: 1.4:1

That's where the numbers came from

Two games in the summer do not a trend make. Do you think, for example, that a new GRAW, Vegas, or even COD wouldn't have rates at or exceeding the LTD?

Personally, I think the NCAA and SC4 sales are both rather low overall. The fall will be quite interesting.

How that? NCAA/360 sold 64% more than NCAA/PS3. Isn't the ratio between the (US) install bases still way above 2:1 at this point?

1.6:1 and 2.1:1 are of the same order of magnitude. It's silly to expect every game to sell precisely in line with hardware LTD, as demographics and preferences will differ a little bit between consoles (similarly, it wouldn't be fair to say the PS3 version of a game underperformed if the 360 version outsold it 2.4 or 2.5:1).

 

[borghe]

NPD is ACTUAL numbers, but they only track ~60% of the retail market (no online, no Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and probably a few others), so any differences are actually larger - though I put no stock in them when people try to use them to track LTD sales of systems to refute what the manufacturer's release as sold through units.

This is incorrect. NPD represents nationwide sales from ALL retailers, even though they only track 60% of the retaielrs. The rest is statistical extrapolation. Everyone usually gets into it every month about the value of the NPD numbers at which point some college level stats majors come in and tell you why statistics, especially in this industry, are as good as real numbers from the remaining 40%. To put it bluntly, if Wal-mart sells an average of 1.21341 times what best buy does every month with a variation on average of no more than +/-.00231, do we really care that NPD is off by 128 360s this month from Wal-Mart? No, because tracking then says that next month they might be off 128 units in the other direction.

edit - and fwiw, when we actually get sell through numbers from the manufacturers (almost always from nintendo, rarely from sony and MS) they usually line up perfectly with NPDs numbers.

 

[King_Slender]

I don't think these numbers show there is room for everyone in the market, the pendulum is swinging towards Nintendo and every month that goes it works against the HD consoles more and more.

Now to elaborate on that, the idea of making your console have more bells and whistle is to push the consumer to buy it not just for gaming but for more features. Then you have to deal with HD consoles pushing up development cost significantly from last gen meaning that developers who bank on HD also need to bank on any HD console being number 1 to make porting a reasonable expectation to get as much market as possible of the incurring high cost to operate.

But when you have the Wii leading software sales and hardware month to month it makes developers think twice ala EA who said they should have banked on the Wii. This whole room for all 3 is a window that Nintendo is shrinking and has changed at least in my eyes what to expect for next gen.

I think what you are leaving out is that top flight studios don't really WANT to develop for the Wii, other than as a money grab, which does not satisfy their creative side, especially the artists. Honestly, can you see companies like Insomniac, Valve, etc. really putting all their heart into a Wii game? Neither can I.

 

[Rolf NB]

Two games in the summer do not a trend make. Do you think, for example, that a new GRAW, Vegas, or even COD wouldn't have rates at or exceeding the LTD?

Personally, I think the NCAA and SC4 sales are both rather low overall. The fall will be quite interesting.



1.6:1 and 2.1:1 are of the same order of magnitude. It's silly to expect every game to sell precisely in line with hardware LTD, as demographics and preferences will differ a little bit between consoles (similarly, it wouldn't be fair to say the PS3 version of a game underperformed if the 360 version outside it 2.4 or 2.5:1).

You're already moving the goal posts. Just a moment ago you said it was "nearly proportional to install base". Under these circumstances I find it unproductive to debate with you, frankly.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think what you are leaving out is that top flight studios don't really WANT to develop for the Wii, other than as a money grab, which does not satisfy their creative side, especially the artists. Honestly, can you see companies like Insomniac, Valve, etc. really putting all their heart into a Wii game? Neither can I.

Valve don't put their hearts into PS3 games either.

Just sayin.

 

[FrankT]

They picked up Amazon around the time they lost TRU, I believe.

Wasn't it more than just Amazon? I would hope so.

The 360 has a lead of 5,598,828 in the US right now. It had a lead of 4,319,528 last July. Things have not changed very much. The PS3 will need to start winning by much more than 20,000 a month to have a chance at passing the 360.

At the current rate it would take 23 years to pass it or 11 if you take into account the full year, much less this generation. If the 360 sees another stellar holiday compared to the likes of the PS3 last year that goal post will only move up once again. If you take into account the last full year of sales not just 08 then the 360 lead only widens.

Xbox 360 Sales vs. PS3 Sales (November & December 2007) = +786K
PS3 Sales vs. Xbox 360 Sales (2008) = +287K

Look for a similar trend later this year.

Agreed, although I expect the gap to be even bigger this holiday.

I know a guy who's wanting to get a 360, but he's holding out for Septembers price drop. Maybe that price drop rumor is what hurt their sales?

The price drop rumor came only about a day before the end of July NPD so it shouldn't have had much of an impact. However, it could very well have some impact on August, but who knows for sure.

 

[krzyspc]

I think what you are leaving out is that top flight studios don't really WANT to develop for the Wii, other than as a money grab, which does not satisfy their creative side, especially the artists. Honestly, can you see companies like Insomniac, Valve, etc. really putting all their heart into a Wii game? Neither can I.

I know those developers exist but at the same time, some of the mentioned are so well off like Valve that they can go without a publisher breathing down their necks. There are a few cases and I will leave it at that, but for the most part Nintendo is making the window smaller.

 

[squatingyeti]

Ok so lets go another route. If the 360 and the PS3 both had say 10 million consoles out there in peoples homes, do you think the discrepancy between the Soul Calibur 4 would be the same? Or would the numbers align much more closely?

Completely unpredictable. 360 owners have shown an appetite to buy games, but there's still no way of knowing if more people that are into games like SCIV would own a PS3 or 360. Even more, there's no way to predict if the 10M people that own the PS3 or 360 would be "hardcore".

 

[gkryhewy]

You're already moving the goal posts. Just a moment ago you said it was "nearly proportional to install base". Under these circumstances I find it unproductive to debate with you, frankly.

[shane]really?[/shane] :lol

"nearly proportional" = "of the same order of magnitude"

I forgot that these threads are the twilight zone. I should go back to PoliGAF.

 

[Tenks]

Valve don't put their hearts into PS3 games either.

Just sayin.

Which makes me wonder just how good Valve's development staff really is. Finding a programmer to code a threaded application correctly is a needle in a haystack.


-edit-

gogo CivRev!

 

[yoopoo]

Still no top 20?

 

[gantz85]

You're already moving the goal posts. Just a moment ago you said it was "nearly proportional to install base". Under these circumstances I find it unproductive to debate with you, frankly.

You're right, and it's okay. The fact that the 360 fanboys are on the defensive now is a sign that the situation was no longer what it was. These wars on the forums for sales don't do too much to affect the general situation; let's see what happens in the coming months for NPD

 

[Barrett2]

Still no top 20?

^ This


Also, I am quite surprised at MGS4's drop. This generation is strange, it seems a lot of games explode out of the gate, but die so fast afterwards. Is this just the nature of a maturing industry, where marketing is carefully crafted to cash in during the initial month of the product, and then quickly kill it to make way for the next thing? The parallels with the movie industry continue to grow.

 

[Atreides]

NPD is ACTUAL numbers, but they only track ~60% of the retail market (no online, no Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and probably a few others), so any differences are actually larger - though I put no stock in them when people try to use them to track LTD sales of systems to refute what the manufacturer's release as sold through units.

They estimate the other 40% of the market. The real differences could be larger, but they could be smaller, too.

 

[Rolf NB]

[shane]really?[/shane] :lol

"nearly proportional" = "of the same order of magnitude"

I forgot that these threads are the twilight zone. I should go back to PoliGAF.

No, please, just stop entirely.

 

[solid2snake]

Which makes me wonder just how good Valve's development staff really is. Finding a programmer to code a threaded application correctly is a needle in a haystack.

great, Valve is a half-assed because of the PS3's crappy development environment? GAF never disappoints me.

 

[Jokeropia]

I thought by now with people's mounting frustrations with the lack of titles especially that it's sales would start to fizzle out, but it's perhaps hitting that "casual" market (not casual gamers though) where their knowledge is based on local newspaper articles, and the simple games like Wiisports and gimmicky add-ons are doing the trick for those people.

:lol

Your bias is clouding your judgement.

 

[Metalmurphy]

great, Valve is a half-assed because of the PS3's crappy development environment? GAF never disappoints me.

They're half-assed cause they don't even try/care when all others do.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Yes here we go..

I was hoping we'd see some veiled "Valve sucks" posts because they don't give a shit about the PS3.

Keep it coming people.

 

[squatingyeti]

They're half-assed cause they don't even try/care when all others do.

It could just be that they don't feel it's worth their time to deal with the PS3, but they'll gladly let someone else do it.

You know, I cut my grass with a riding lawn mower, but if my neighbor asked me to cut his and told me I needed to use a push mower, I don't think it would be worth my time even if I was going to make a little money. I'd outsource it to my kid and ask for a portion for finding him work :lol.

 

[FrankT]

Which makes me wonder just how good Valve's development staff really is. Finding a programmer to code a threaded application correctly is a needle in a haystack.


-edit-

gogo CivRev!

Not really an issue when you state over and over again you're not working on the platform at all. A bit difficult to program anything you're not touching whatsoever.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

I get the impression that Valve is just so set in their ways of PC development and aren't willing to make an honest effort on PS3.

But hey, what do I know?

 

[jakncoke]

that's crazy that MGS4 dropped out of the top 10.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

By the way - where are the press releases? Usually MS is quick to comment on NDP...

 

[jmdajr]

Winning that HD format war was key to SONY bouncing back.

I know MS won't do it, but they need a Blu-Ray drive to compete.
Either that or a BIG price drop. None of this 50 dollar bullshit.

 

[krzyspc]

Saying Valve doesn't try because of consoles is silly and ignorant beyond belief. The company efforts is continuously poured into the PC and making an effort with one console to try and even things out someone.

And given the content they have released for TF2 alone puts them leagues above EPIC and ID.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

:lol :lol Valve is one of the best and most prestigious developers in years. I wish I could work for them. You people are NUTS!

They have made pretty much all the right decisions so far.

 

[TheGreatDave]

Winning that HD format war was key to SONY bouncing back.

I know MS won't do it, but they need a Blu-Ray drive to compete.
Either that or a BIG price drop. None of this 50 dollar bullshit.

The last thing Microsoft need is a more expensive console.

 

[gamergirly]

Interesting

 

[Metalmurphy]

:lol :lol Valve is one of the best and most prestigious developers in years. I wish I could work for them. You people are NUTS!

They have made pretty much all the right decisions so far.

And porting Orange Box to the PS3 would be a bad decision?

rolleyes.gif