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Official July 2008 NPD Results Thread
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
gantz85 said:
You do realize that is the best possible outcome for LBP? A long legged seller means sustained improvement of hardware sales over the lifetime of the title. If that happened, Sony would be fucking ecstatic.
Personally, I think LBP has as good a chance of being a decent selling niche game as it does of being a breakout hit. The problem is it's pretty impossible to determine which it will be at this point.
justchris said:
Yep, as I was ineptly trying to point out earlier, the PS3 hasn't yet hit on that sustained reasonably good (charting) seller. I don't personally think LBP will hit that sweet spot either though I'm open to being proved wrong. I do think that the performance of the game, given it's hype it's received among the hardcore could in many ways shape Sony's strategy in the coming year or two though, Sony really does need it to succeed at this point, though I'm not sure how I'd quantify that success. It's prominent place at their E3 press conference (which the hardcore cares about even though most "regular" people don't) is at least some indication though of Sony's hopes for the title.
justchris said:
Yeah, I do think that's right. Only a release will tell whether LBP will be the sea-change that some people think it may be. I agree that it might end up as only a decent selling niche game, which is ENTIRELY WHY I DISAGREE WITH PUTTING WEAPONS IN LBP. Keep it open for now at least, keep it as friendly as possible to kids and non-core gamers including females.
I think LBP's long legs will come from the fact that it continually generates new exciting content from users.. if some brilliant gamers produce good enough tributes, imitations, and original works, they'll be all over Youtube and it might start some fireworks.
Of course, it might sink too. I love the gamble.
gantz85 said:
What? Conferences do matter to Nintendo, they just have a different view of it than you do, apparently. To Nintendo, E3 is their chance to wow the general press. E3 is pretty much the only gaming focused convetion that the major newspapers and magazines show up to. It's not like LGC or E4All when the enthusiast press are the only ones there.
SealSqueal
Member
gantz85 said:
Awesome
gantz85 said:
Geez yeah. So, I'm not sure how much success it'll have, or even what success is for the title, but whatever it is in Sony's mind, if they track far below it they're in trouble. And personally, based on my understanding of the complexity of things you can do in the title I think they're building expectations too high. It should have an audience, but a significant chunk of it already probably is hyped to the title because they already own a PS3/were planning to get one.
gantz85 said:
That's part of the reason it's so hard to predict. Getting the hardcore base is pretty easy, and I think Sony's done everything right with this game for that. Their goal, with LBP, is to get the more casual and mid-level userbase interested. And that's dependent on marketing and word of mouth. The problem is, it is extremely hard to market user created content. It has not historically proved to be a selling point in mass market games (although there are 1 or 2 exceptions I might be able to find with time). Someone could create the greastest stage ever, and unfortunately, most of your non-PS3 owning consumers would never know about it, so bascially, Sony is very dependent on what comes in the box day 1.
That doesn't mean this may not be a sea change for user-generated content as a selling point, and if it was, and ugc became a major factor in future games, I would be the last person in the world to complain. But I seriously don't see it happening, not for a console game anyway.
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
The two most prominent examples that come to mind are Quake (user-created maps) and The Sims (user-created skins & objects). No clue as to whether or not Sony can translate that model into success in the console space. You've got to admire their ambition (LBP has scads of potential), but when it comes to offering unique "gaming" content that can't be found on the competition I worry that they're putting far too many eggs in one basket.justchris said:
B-Rad Lascelle said:
Yes, and those are both PC games. Also of note, user created content is a big selling point in a lot of free/cheap pc games & MMO's. But with that, it's basically hardware that most people already have, and something you'll just grab if you have an interest. We're not discussing LBP's success among the existing base though, we're talking about it's ability to sell consoles, and I think marketing user created content to people who don't already have a PS3 lying around is going to take some pretty ingenious advertising. I'm honestly looking forward to seeing them try.
I don't know about the 'putting far too many eggs in one basket' thing. Sony isn't actually developing it themselves, and they still have plenty of development resources available to them. Some of which, like Team ICO, are known for their unique content. I think focusing on LBP for this year is fine, as long as they have something else to push next year and the year after.
BishopLamont
Banned
All we need now is PAL numbers and Nintendomination is complete.
FLEABttn said:
From http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...th-anniversary
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (13 million)
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12 million)
Grand Theft Auto III (11 million)
Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec (11 million)
Gran Turismo 4 (8.79 million)
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (7 million)
Kingdom Hearts (5.6 million)
Final Fantasy X (5 million)
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (3.7 million)
MGS3 didn't sell 5 million, probably. If these figures are shipped, MGS4 has shipped more than MGS3 already.
deadhorse32
Bad Art
2 Minutes Turkish said:The spice seems to have left these threads since we basically all became acutely aware of the outcome some time ago.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
It's worse when you consider what time of year the bottom 2 launched. They should have been able to pull of more than that easy.yoopoo said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
FLEABttn said:
US:
MGS2 - 2.0 million
MGS3 - 1.2 million
(both rounded to nearest 100k because data comes from NPD pre-ban and my intention is to present information available publicly on the web without infringing on IP or circumventing the GAF ban; both as of Christmas 2006; neither include Substance/Subsistence)
JPN:
MGS2 - 798k
MGS2 Mega Hits - 42k
MGS2 Substance - 130k
MGS2 Substance Pricedrop - 47k
MGS2 Konami Collection - 37k
MGS3 - 819k
MGS3 Subsistence - 133k
Metalmurphy
Member
Not really surprised MGS4 isn't on the charts, everyone that had a PS3 already bought the game, those who didn't went for the bundle which doesn't count for the charts.
oO
What a shocker!!!Rekwest said:
oO
Yes and no. Prospective buyers might not be sold on that feature, but the press has always been absolutely enamoured by user-generated content, and it will help both the ratings and the buzz they produce through their podcasts, previews, blogs, whatever else they use nowadays to reach out to readers.justchris said:
E.g. Neverwinter Nights (1) shipped with an absolute turd of a campaign, an outright slap in the face, but still got all favourable ratings and recommendations, based on guess what? On "potential", because the editing tools were free.
I could cite some more recent examples, but those are platform exclusives, so I won't go there, but you could make the case that it's already happened for Little Big Planet itself. It's been the media's darling since pretty much its original unveiling, and it's the editor that gets them all excited every time they think about it.
That's not to say all the love is undeserved. For that the shipping content would have to be horrendous, and by all accounts so far it's all good fun. It's a bit like rating multiplayer games where the quality of your own experience will in large part depend on how many other players participate. You just can't be objective about it, but you can to some extent create self-fulfilling prophecies, for better or worse.
squatingyeti
non-sanctioned troll
The Hug Dog said:
Considering SW sales for X title don't scale linearly w/HW install base, not really. The market for any title is only Y big. Just because more people own HW A, does not mean that more of them are part of Y. In fact, the bigger the install base of HW grows, the more diverse it is likely to become.
Its biggest effect should have been in the form of an immediate spike. I don't really understand why it did nothing (I predicted 246k, above PS3). Very low stock for this firesale could explain it, but we're talking 20~30kish "very low". It's just about impossible that the number of 20GB 360s left in the US retail channel would have been that low.Kilrogg said:
Theory #2 might be a massive downswing in sales caused by whatever (userbase/fence sitters gobsmacked by the upcoming interface changes, new experimental additives in the domestic water supply that cause an insatiable desire for MGS4 in all citizens), and the firesale spike, even though it existed, was eaten up by the downswing/was too small to cancel it out.
Private Hoffman
Banned
gantz85 said:I think the general software line up for 360 vs PS3 this year-end for the US leans heavily towards the 360. Gears of War 2, Fable 2 and Fallout 3 with exclusive content leads over Sony's line of Resistance 2, LittleBigPlanet, SOCOM, Motorstorm 2... etc in terms of IP dominance. I think LBP is a wildcard, and even if it proves to be a great selling game it would be one with persistent sales and long legs rather than one with a hit-and-run effect like MGS4. Given all this plus 360's sales drop, I would think that 360 would perform better this end-year, which is crucial since the monthly volume of sales then is typically double or more against the other months..
But who knows?
In terms of overall sales? Perhaps, but I think the PS3's lineup has more system-selling potential; why? Well, because of a number of factors:
(1) The Xbox 360 is already heavily saturated with hardcore gamers that love shooters. Gears of War 2 is unlikely to broaden the audience, nor is Fable 2 or Fallout 3 (which isn't an exclusive). Sell well? Certainly, but convince someone that hasn't purchased an Xbox 360 (and was unconvinced to do so when the original Gears came out)? Doubtful.
(2) The PS3's shooter userbase hasn't become saturated yet. I'm sure many Xbox 360 owners that don't own a PS3 may be convinced to get one over the holiday season and shortly after due to Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 which heavily focus on online play.
(3) Little Big Planet is the wild card, and I believe that this title distinguishes itself from the competition the most. It's a game nobody else has with instant appeal and longevity. I can see this game, more than any other, convincing someone to go for the Playstation 3 versus the Xbox 360.
Starchasing
Member
gofreak said:
LBO will be the AC of Gamecube
solid2snake
Banned
Jewbacca said:
well, a LBP bundle with the new 80GB PS3 for 399 bucks would be a no-brainer. Sony has to market LBP as one of their key titles of this generation.
Private Hoffman
Banned
Jewbacca said:
I don't agree.
Viva Pinata has pretty low appeal in general (not saying it's a bad game, I loved it honestly) and very little accessibility. There's a high learning curve involved just to jump in the game; there's no real online co-op (important for the hardcore gamer); there's a creation aspect but it's not something you can really share with others like Little Big Planet.
I see LBP doing far better than Viva Pinata with the hardcore audience come October than Viva did, and I suppose the "legs" will determine how much word of mouth/ casual appeal this title has.
You forgot a game in this mix, Banjo Kazooie:Nuts & Bolts, while LBP has the potential to be a massive hit (possibly the biggest selling game in the PS3 line up for 2008) for Sony and could mark the future for platformers, BK is an assured hit, and nicely rounds off the 360 line up for 2008.Private Hoffman said:
That said, both line ups this year for PS3 and 360 are fantastic, and both consoles deserve to do well, the only question mark is over Wii, with its decidedly thin line-up, that said, it will still could outsell 360/PS3 combined this FY, such is Nintendos hold over the market.
Fair point, although it will be interesting to see how VP2 fares in the market, if they get the game right, it could steal LBPS thunder before BK wipes it away completely, that said both could be disapointing while LBP storms the gaming world, we just don't know yet.Private Hoffman said:
