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Official October 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

C

Cheesemeister

Member
cortland_andrus said:
This is my prediction:


Wii: 475K

360: 350K

PS3: 145K
Click to expand...

This prediction will not be counted. Furthermore, not making predictions for the other systems will result in values of 0. You don't want that, do you?
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
[360] 325000
[GBA] 55000
[NDS] 395000
[PS2] 152000
[PS3] 91000
[PSP] 196000
[WII] 402000

Why I chose my numbers.

I feel the 360 is going to slide from last month as I don't know how these bundles and Halo 3 residue is going to happen. That is the one I have questions about the most as I think I might be undercutting it.

GBA should continue to do as is.

NDS should continue to do what it is doing as it basically does the same average per week.

PS2 will probably slide somewhat due to no major releases and more prominent placement of 'current' consoles.

PS3. In taking the weekly average of last month and applying it to this month is 4000 higher than my number given. There has to be a leveling point for the console somewhere, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go under 90k for the month.

Wii sells what it ships and is like the NDS in that it basically does the same average every week.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
[WII] 445K - increasing holiday supply
[NDS] 401k - usual
[360] 324k - it enjoyed it's limelight, residual price cut and halo 3 effect but back down to normal in the last 2 weeks. 360 Arcade is a big bomba
[PSP] 197k - normalizing after the price cut
[PS2] 188k - usual
[PS3] 91k - price cut announcements hampered sales even further.
[GBA] 59k - uh oh, the PS3 is within striking distance again!

edit: didn't know 40gig has 4 days in the sales period, revised my numbers from 65k to 91k.
 
D

donny2112

Member
JJConrad said:
This just feels wrong. The month hasn't even closed yet.
Click to expand...

I had similar concerns, but I've been told it's for a good reason. ;) You can just wait and predict next Friday before 4 p.m. Going by the previous prediction thread posting schedule, it would've been open by then, anyways.

titiklabingapat said:
edit: didn't know 40gig has 4 days in the sales period,
Click to expand...

It didn't. It had 2. Why do people keep saying it had 4?
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
titiklabingapat said:
[WII] 445K - increasing holiday supply
[NDS] 401k - usual
[360] 324k - it enjoyed it's limelight, residual price cut and halo 3 effect but back down to normal in the last 2 weeks. 360 Arcade is a big bomba
[PSP] 197k - normalizing after the price cut
[PS2] 188k - usual
[PS3] 91k - price cut announcements hampered sales even further.
[GBA] 59k - uh oh, the PS3 is within striking distance again!

edit: didn't know 40gig has 4 days in the sales period, revised my numbers from 65k to 91k.
Click to expand...

Agent Icebeezy said:
[360] 325000
[GBA] 55000
[NDS] 395000
[PS2] 152000
[PS3] 91000
[PSP] 196000
[WII] 402000
Click to expand...

Outside of PS2, we are damn near equal. PS, Arcade is selling a shitload currently, too late for this period though
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
I wonder how all these economic recession talks will affect the console war, especially the PS3 and 360 to a lesser extent. Retailers are already predicting a downturn in personal spending.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
The Long
X360: Let's see. I way lowballed this one last month. Now on the one hand it's hard to imagine it retaining the same rate it reached in September... but on the other it still sounds like things stayed decently high, and September only had half the month for the big Halo 3 effect anyway. Seems like Arcade came in with more of a whimper than a bang. I'm very much in guesstown again when choosing to say it will do 80% as well as last month on a weekly basis. So 527.8 x .8 x 4/5 for weeks = 338K

Wii: Wii has been nothing if not consistent over the last few months, ranging from 100.2K/week to 106.25K/week. I'll go near the middle. 103K/week * 4 = 412K

PS3: It was already headed down. There was nothing major to cause a boost for it until the very end, and I doubt those couple days of 40 GB availability caused a monster spike. People buying cheaper 60/80 GBs is probably canceled by people waiting for the 40 GB. I'll say 90% of last month's weekly rate. 119.4K * .9 * 4/5 = 86K

PS2: Last month it did 43K/week. Little reason for change, but in the long run it's slowly headed down so I'll go with 42K/week. 42K * 4 = 168K

DS: Not quite as consistent as Wii the last few months, but almost. It's been a bit lower than Wii lately, so I'll say 2K/week less than I did for Wii. 101K * 4 = 404K

GBA: The last three months it's been 21.75K/week, 17.375K/week, and 15K/week. It's also on the way out. At that rate it would be down to 0K/week in very short time, though, so I doubt the decrease continues at that pace. I'll say 14K/week. 14K * 4 = 56K

PSP: I overestimated this one last month. Slim was a return to normalcy, not a bump. I'll say it retained the same weekly rate. 284.5K * 4/5 = 228K
Click to expand...

The Short

[Wii] 412K
[DS] 404K
[360] 338K
[PSP] 228K
[PS2] 168K
[PS3] 86K
[GBA] 56K
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
[WII] 425,000
[DS] 415,000
[360] 313,000
[PSP] 268,000
[PS2] 230,000
[PS3] 115,000
[GBA] 70,000
 
P

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
[PS2] 210K
[PS3] 180K
[PSP] 400K
[360] 300K
[Wii] 510K
[NDS] 500K
[GBA] 80K

I am surprise to see so many low psp numbers considering the lite one came out Its been selling like crazy at my local toys r us.
 
B

Belgorim

Member
[360] 337k - Estimate drop-off with about 20%
[GBA] 54k - random
[NDS] 400k - random
[PS2] 175k - tiny increase from GH3
[PS3] 150k - around 60% increase with price drop.... might edit this one before 9th.
[PSP] 210k - slight decrease.
[WII] 440k - estimate 10% more stock.
 
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