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[Raist]

I have revised our Call of Duty: Ghosts estimate and it was pretty spot on.

(100%)

[Week 45] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 775,000 / NEW
[Week 46] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 186,000 / 961,000 (-76%)
[Week 47] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 156,240 / 1,117,240 (-16%)
[Week 48] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 207,799 / 1,325,039 (+33%)
[Week 49] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 211,955 / 1,536,994 (+2%)
[Week 50] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 167,444 / 1,704,438 (-21%)
[Week 51] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 179,165 / 1,883,603 (+7%)
[Week 52] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 136,165 / 2,019,768 (-24%)

According to Chart-Track, Call of Duty: Ghosts sold 1,991,994 units in 2013. We were off by only 28,000 units.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/gta-...ct-of-2013-call-of-duty-falls-to-no-5/0126323



Thanks to MCV magazine we later learn that Destiny did around 417,100 (95%) units. Maybe Titanfall was a bit underestimated.

Nice.
So considering that the Ghosts figure is likely the most accurate, this means that these three titles must have sold at least 680k together (which would put AW at 775.2k according to the +14% comment from Chart Track).
So, probably a bit of underestimation for TF, Destiny and WNO.

 

[King Beyond the wall]

I wonder why The Evil Within is selling better on XB1 than PS4.
The PS4 version had a big advantage 1st week and japanese games normally sell better on PlayStation by comparison.

Is there any big deal at some major retails for the One version?

I'm assuming it was due to bundles.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Good for Destiny^^ Still doing my dailies^^ People seem to be liking the new COD quite a bit, so I will make sure to pick it up, but after Far Cry 4 and Dragon Age; got to support my open world RPGs^^

 

[Paganmoon]

I update Swedish, Finnish, Australian and New Zealand charts during the weekend. They aren't a week behind.

Thread is long dead by then though.

 

[Raist]

I update Swedish, Finnish, Australian and New Zealand charts during the weekend. They aren't a week behind.

Sweden pretty much is. Updates are on sundays in the best of cases, often mondays.
Finland / AUS / NZ are usually on thursdays on the other hand.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

That Titanfall FW estimation never convinced me.

 

[Raist]

That Titanfall FW estimation never convinced me.

It's not like it sold 200k either. What we had was "sold 2x FIFA". Subsequent weeks with drops and estimates for other titles put it in that ballpark too.

Everything was probably on the lower range, but that applies to both Destiny and WNO.

The question is as well, in that statement about Week 1 sales, did they add the 360 sales for TF although it was released a couple of weeks later?

 

[renjworks]

Going forward everything will be more popular on ps4.

yes. EVERYTHING.

 

[Tratorn]

I'm assuming it was due to bundles.

There was a TEW XB1 bundle? It surely wasn't official, so it must have been at a major retailer to have an notable effect on these charts.

 

[Bruno MB]

Nice.
So considering that the Ghosts figure is likely the most accurate, this means that these three titles must have sold at least 680k together (which would put AW at 775.2k according to the +14% comment from Chart Track).
So, probably a bit of underestimation for TF, Destiny and WNO.

I have done all calculations from the beginning and now everything fits.

Please, check if there is any mistake.

Destiny

Destiny beats the week one sales of Ubisoft's tech-tinged title by 7.5 per cent.

But how much did Watchdogs sell?

Here's the answer:

Ubisoft take their second All Formats No1 of the year, and smash the week 1 sales record for new IP in the process as event title ‘Watch Dogs’ takes the crown.

It eclipses the new IP record set by ‘L.A Noire’ three years ago with an increase of 58%

May 2011 Individual Format Top Ten (90%)

01. [360] L.A Noire (Take-Two Interactive) 224,000
02. [PS3] L.A Noire (Take-Two Interactive) 162,000

Total - 386,000 (Week 20 and 21)

Rockstar/Take 2’s crime solving title ‘L.A. Noire’ (-43%) continues to dominate the chart this week

Week 20, 2011 - 246,000 / NEW
Week 21, 2011 - 140,000 / 386,000 (-43%)

L.A Noire sold 246,000 units (90%) in its first week, 273,000 when we extrapolate it to 100% of the market.

Watch Dogs = L.A Noire + 58%

273,000 x 1.58 = 431,000

Watch Dogs sold 431,000 units in its debut.

Destiny = Watch Dogs + 7.5%

431,000 x 1.075 = 463,000

[B]DESTINY (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 463,000 / NEW (100%)[/B]

Titanfall

EA’s ‘Titanfall’ lands at No1 on Xbox One and PC becoming the big release of 2014 so far.

It also means EA now hold the two leading No1 titles by sales for the year. Titanfall more than doubles the sales of what had been 2014’s current leader FIFA 14, which until now had delivered the highest sales for an All Formats No1 back in Week 1 of this year.

We have to find out how much FIFA 14 sold in the first week of 2014. This will be an easy task thanks to UKIE.

In Week 4, they published the sales numbers for the top 10, bear in mind that these figures aren't extrapolated to 100% of the market.

‘FIFA 14’ (28,088 / -14%) makes it 4 straight weeks in 2014 at No1 and 9 in total since launch.

[Week 4, 2014] FIFA 14 - 28,088 (90%) / FIFA 14 - 31,209 (100%)

(100%)

[Week 1, 2014] FIFA 14 - 69,309
[Week 2, 2014] FIFA 14 - 47,130 (-32%)
[Week 3, 2014] FIFA 14 - 36,290 (-23%)
[Week 4, 2014] FIFA 14 - 31,209 (-14%)

We already have FIFA 14 sales number in the first week of 2014.

Titanfall more than doubled FIFA 14 week 1 sales.

69,309 x 2 = 138,618

[B]TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) > 139,000 / NEW (100%)[/B]

Wolfenstein: The New Order

It’s a debut at No1 for Bethesda’s Swedish studio MachineGames first game - ‘Wolfenstein: The New Order'.

It's the 6th game in a series that began in 1981 with ‘Castle Wolfenstein’ and becomes the 2nd biggest release of 2014 (behind Microsoft’s Titanfall initial release in week 11 on Xbox One/PC) and New Order accounts for a quarter of all entertainment software unit sales in week 21, 2014 (36% of all revenue).

Week 21, Overall Software Sales = 328,200 (100%)

328,200 / 4 = 82,050

WOLFENSTEIN: THE NEW ORDER (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 82,000 / NEW (100%)

We can finally solve the puzzle.

EA’s 6 week run with ‘FIFA 15’ is over as Activision Blizzard take the title with ‘Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare’.

The latest in the series convincingly beats the week 1 number of 2013’s ‘Call of Duty: Ghosts’ despite being the 5th biggest launch in the Call of Duty series as a whole. By contrast however three of this year’s biggest week 1 titles have been First Person Shooters (Titanfall, Destiny & Wolfenstein). Advanced Warfare’s week 1 total beats the combined week 1 sales of those 3 by almost 14%

DESTINY (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 463,000 / NEW (100%)
TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) > 139,000 / NEW (100%)
WOLFENSTEIN: THE NEW ORDER (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 82,000 / NEW (100%)

Total = 684,000 units

684,000 + 14% = 780,000

CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) > 780,000 / NEW (100%)

 

[Welfare]

Very nice work there Bruno MB.

 

[Mpl90]

Fantastic work, Bruno MB.

 

[Guymelef]

Spain 2013 software sales.

October:

1 FIFA 15 PS3
2 FIFA 15 PS4
3 SUPER SMASH BROS. NINTENDO 3DS
4 LA TIERRA MEDIA: SOMBRAS DE MORDOR PS4
5 FIFA 15 XBOX360
6 MINECRAFT PS3
7 MINECRAFT PLAYSTATION 4 EDITION PS4
8 NBA 2K15 PS4
9 NBA 2K15 PS3
10 THE EVIL WITHIN PS4

 

[BKK]

Great work Bruno.

The latest in the series convincingly beats the week 1 number of 2013’s ‘Call of Duty: Ghosts’

In reality it barely squeezed past last year's title (777k Vs 775k). Of course there is a few % margin of error with Bruno's calculations, but not much. Chart-Track comment on the actual tracked (non-upweighted) numbers (which are redacted in the public release), so I guess it wouldn't seem as close in their report as that doesn't take into account that their overall market coverage estimate has increased from 90% last year to 95% this year.

 

[Raist]

I have done all calculations from the beginning and now everything fits.

Please, check if there is any mistake.

Destiny



But how much did Watchdogs sell?

Here's the answer:



May 2011 Individual Format Top Ten (90%)

01. [360] L.A Noire (Take-Two Interactive) 224,000
02. [PS3] L.A Noire (Take-Two Interactive) 162,000

Total - 386,000 (Week 20 and 21)



Week 20, 2011 - 246,000 / NEW
Week 21, 2011 - 140,000 / 386,000 (-43%)

L.A Noire sold 246,000 units (90%) in its first week, 273,000 when we extrapolate it to 100% of the market.

Watch Dogs = L.A Noire + 58%

273,000 x 1.58 = 431,000

Watch Dogs sold 431,000 units in its debut.

Destiny = Watch Dogs + 7.5%

431,000 x 1.075 = 463,000

[B]DESTINY (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 463,000 / NEW (100%)[/B]

Titanfall



We have to find out how much FIFA 14 sold in the first week of 2014. This will be an easy task thanks to UKIE.

In Week 4, they published the sales numbers for the top 10, bear in mind that these figures aren't extrapolated to 100% of the market.



[Week 4, 2014] FIFA 14 - 28,088 (90%) / FIFA 14 - 31,209 (100%)

(100%)

[Week 1, 2014] FIFA 14 - 69,309
[Week 2, 2014] FIFA 14 - 47,130 (-32%)
[Week 3, 2014] FIFA 14 - 36,290 (-23%)
[Week 4, 2014] FIFA 14 - 31,209 (-14%)

We already have FIFA 14 sales number in the first week of 2014.

Titanfall more than doubled FIFA 14 week 1 sales.

69,309 x 2 = 136,618

[B]TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) > 137,000 / NEW (100%)[/B]

Wolfenstein: The New Order



Week 21, Overall Software Sales = 328,200 (100%)

328,200 / 4 = 82,050

WOLFENSTEIN: THE NEW ORDER (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 82,000 / NEW (100%)

We can finally solve the puzzle.



DESTINY (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 463,000 / NEW (100%)
TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) > 137,000 / NEW (100%)
WOLFENSTEIN: THE NEW ORDER (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 82,000 / NEW (100%)

Total = 682,000 units

682,000 + 14% = 777,000

Really nice.
Was expecting Destiny to the the most underestimated of the lot, seems like it's quite a gap from the original estimation (which was 400k).
So essentially. CoD dropped a lot was Ghosts and hasn't recovered from that. Franchise fatigue confirmed?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Really nice.
Was expecting Destiny to the the most underestimated of the lot, seems like it's quite a gap from the original estimation (which was 400k).
So essentially. CoD dropped a lot was Ghosts and hasn't recovered from that. Franchise fatigue confirmed?

There's probably an element of franchise fatigue. I don't think COD can continue to pull those types of numbers indefinitely.

But I'd say there's still an element of generational fatigue/cyclical influence at play; we're still in a state of transition.

Given the splits we're looking at only ~249K+ on the PS3 and 360 combined compared to the 775K on those platforms last year.

The old installed base is already lapsed or decaying rapidly in terms of purchasing activity.
The new installed bases with very active userbases are still relatively small.
COD should rise as the latter rises, assuming it more than offsets the former's decline going forward.

Analogously, something like Madden in the US was only up slightly Y/Y when it launched, but I have no doubt it will rise as the new installed base rises and its perennial nature will continue unabated.

 

[Raist]

Still no french charts. Yesterday (tuesday 11th) was a public holiday so maybe they just took monday off too. Hopefully we're not losing that one too.

There's probably an element of franchise fatigue. I don't think COD can continue to pull those types of numbers indefinitely.

But I'd say there's still an element of generational fatigue/cyclical influence at play; we're still in a state of transition.

Given the splits we're looking at only ~249K+ on the PS3 and 360 combined compared to the 775K on those platforms last year.

The old installed base is already lapsed or decaying rapidly in terms of purchasing activity.
The new installed bases with very active userbases are still relatively small.
COD should rise as the latter rises, assuming it more than offsets the former's decline going forward.

Analogously, something like Madden in the US was only up slightly Y/Y when it launched, but I have no doubt it will rise as the new installed base rises and its perennial nature will continue unabated.

Yeah, maybe. I guess it's still a bit weird that for that title the SW trend doesn't seem to follow the HW trend though.

 

[BKK]

Farming Simulator #1 in France.

CoD is in terminal decline even without generational change, just look at the PC;

 

[DrWong]

France week 44 (reminder: value chart):

1 - FIFA 15 PS3 - Electronic Arts
2 - Farming Simulator 2015 PC - Focus Home Interactive
3 - Super Smash Bros. 3DS - Nintendo
4 - FIFA 15 PS4 - Electronic Arts
5 - Just Dance 2015 Wii - Ubisoft

 

[Belgo Ray]

Germany, Top 50 - Week 45 (Nov 3 - Nov 8)

01 (21) PS4 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
02 (NE) PS3 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
03 (NE) XBO Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
04 (01) PC Landwirtschafs-Simulator 15
05 (NE) 360 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
06 (13) PC Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
07 (02) PS4 FIFA 15
08 (03) PS3 FIFA 15
09 (NE) XBO Halo - The Master Chief Collection
10 (09) 3DS Tomodachi Life

11 (07) 3DS Super Smash Bros.
12 (05) PS4 The Evil Within
13 (06) PS4 Mittelerde: Mordors Schatten
14 (10) PS3 Minecraft
15 (12) PC Die Sims 4
16 (16) 360 FIFA 15
17 (04) PS4 Lords of the Fallen
18 (14) PS3 The Evil Within
19 (17) PS4 Destiny
20 (31) WII Just Dance 2015
21 (24) PS4 The Laft of Us
22 (15) PS4 NBA 2k15
23 (08) PS3 WWE 2k15
24 (28) WII Skylanders Trap Team
25 (11) XBO Sunset Overdrive
26 (20) PS4 The Walking Dead - GOTY Edition
27 (43) PS3 Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance
28 (19) PS4 The Walking Dead: Season 2
29 (30) PS4 Minecraft
30 (27) PS4 Driveclub
31 (44) 3DS Fantasy Life
32 (36) PS3 Grand Theft Auto V
33 (34) PS4 Battlefield 4
34 (39) 360 Minecraft
35 (18) PS4 SingStar: Ultimate Party
36 (37) PC Mittelerde: Mordors Schatten
37 (51) 3DS Animal Crossing: New Leaf
38 (33) XBO Forza Horizon 2
39 (41) PS3 Call of Duty: Black Ops II
40 (35) WII FIFA 15
41 (80) XBO FIFA 15
42 (40) PS3 The Walking Dead: Season 2
43 (45) PS4 Diablo III - Reaper of Souls
44 (26) PC Civilization: Beyond Earth
45 (54) PS3 Skylanders: Trap Team
46 (48) 3DS Disney Magical World
47 (60) WIU Mario Kart 8
48 (57) PS3 Diablo III - Reaper of Souls
49 (32) 360 The Evil Within
50 (66) PS3 The Walking Dead

Top 50
PS4 - 15
PS3 - 12
PC - 5
XBO - 5
3DS - 5
360 - 4
WII - 3
WIIU - 1

 

[ekim]

Germany, Top 50 - Week 45 (Nov 3 - Nov 8)

01 (21) PS4 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
02 (NE) PS3 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
03 (NE) XBO Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
04 (01) PC Landwirtschafs-Simulator 15
05 (NE) 360 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
06 (13) PC Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
07 (02) PS4 FIFA 15
08 (03) PS3 FIFA 15
09 (NE) XBO Halo - The Master Chief Collection
10 (09) 3DS Tomodachi Life

11 (07) 3DS Super Smash Bros.
12 (05) PS4 The Evil Within
13 (06) PS4 Mittelerde: Mordors Schatten
14 (10) PS3 Minecraft
15 (12) PC Die Sims 4
16 (16) 360 FIFA 15
17 (04) PS4 Lords of the Fallen
18 (14) PS3 The Evil Within
19 (17) PS4 Destiny
20 (31) WII Just Dance 2015
21 (24) PS4 The Laft of Us
22 (15) PS4 NBA 2k15
23 (08) PS3 WWE 2k15
24 (28) WII Skylanders Trap Team
25 (11) XBO Sunset Overdrive
26 (20) PS4 The Walking Dead - GOTY Edition
27 (43) PS3 Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance
28 (19) PS4 The Walking Dead: Season 2
29 (30) PS4 Minecraft
30 (27) PS4 Driveclub
31 (44) 3DS Fantasy Life
32 (36) PS3 Grand Theft Auto V
33 (34) PS4 Battlefield 4
34 (39) 360 Minecraft
35 (18) PS4 SingStar: Ultimate Party
36 (37) PC Mittelerde: Mordors Schatten
37 (51) 3DS Animal Crossing: New Leaf
38 (33) XBO Forza Horizon 2
39 (41) PS3 Call of Duty: Black Ops II
40 (35) WII FIFA 15
41 (80) XBO FIFA 15
42 (40) PS3 The Walking Dead: Season 2
43 (45) PS4 Diablo III - Reaper of Souls
44 (26) PC Civilization: Beyond Earth
45 (54) PS3 Skylanders: Trap Team
46 (48) 3DS Disney Magical World
47 (60) WIU Mario Kart 8
48 (57) PS3 Diablo III - Reaper of Souls
49 (32) 360 The Evil Within
50 (66) PS3 The Walking Dead

Top 50
PS4 - 15
PS3 - 12
PC - 5
XBO - 5
3DS - 5
360 - 4
WII - 3
WIIU - 1

Wut? How come the MCC is in there already?

 

[Nintendojitsu]

Poor PC Advanced Warfare. No Wii U version to keep them company this year.

 

[Dinjooh]

Wut? How come the MCC is in there already?

German efficiency?

 

[Xando]

Wut? How come the MCC is in there already?

Online stores sold it since last friday similiar to COD last week and FC4 this week.

 

[ekim]

Online stores sold it since last friday.

But no major stores and still #9? not bad

 

[Raist]

France - Week 44

01 (01) PS3 FIFA 15 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
02 (NE) PC FARMING SIMULATOR (FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE)
03 (03) 3DS SUPER SMASH BROS. FOR NINTENDO 3DS (NINTENDO)
04 (02) PS4 FIFA 15 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
05 (05) WII JUST DANCE 2015 (UBISOFT)

 

[Xando]

Gotta try Farming simulator someday.
Even though im german i've never met someone that has played it.

But no major stores and still #9? not bad

I guess most people in Germany that are die hard Halo fans will be buying it at online stores that sell early regularly like Spielegrotte or Gamesonly.

 

[Belgo Ray]

Gotta try Farming simulator someday.
Even though im german i've never met someone that has played it.

Right. Any nobody reads BILD.

 

[sprinkles]

Gotta try Farming simulator someday.
Even though im german i've never met someone that has played it.

The series is getting better every year, and the budget increases as well.

 

[Bruno MB]

MCV magazine reveals that Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare sales were 5.7% up over last year's Call of Duty: Ghosts.

That's near 820,000 units for Call of Duty: Advance Warfare, or 810,000 if we slightly downgrade Call of Duty: Ghosts first week sales to 765,000 which would match better with known 2013 sales.

[Week 45] [B]CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 765,000 / NEW[/B]
[Week 46] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 183,600 / 958,600 (-76%)
[Week 47] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 154,224 / 1,112,824 (-16%)
[Week 48] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 205,118 / 1,317,942 (+33%)
[Week 49] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 209,220 / 1,527,162 (+2%)
[Week 50] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 165,284 / 1,692,446 (-21%)
[Week 51] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 176,854 / 1,869,300 (+7%)
[Week 52] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 134,409 / 1,993,709 (-24%)

According to Chart-Track, Call of Duty: Ghosts sold 1,991,994 units in 2013.

CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 808,600 / NEW

PlayStation 4 (35%) - 283,010
Xbox One (32%) - 258,752
Xbox 360 (21%) - 169,806 (down 60% YoY)
PlayStation 3 (11%) - 88,946 (down 64% YoY)

 

[EGM1966]

Bruno MB - you're a scholar and a gentleman. Terrific analysis with available sources.

 

[BKK]

Bruno, those are 100% numbers and assume that MCV are upweighting? Personally I'd assume that they are not upweighting and using the raw reported numbers. If so then 5.6% of that 5.7% increase is accounted for by the change from 90% to 95% market coverage estimate.

 

[The_lascar]

Thanks Bruno.
So here we are.

 

[Bruno MB]

Thank you all for the positive feedback, I always try to add some spice to these threads to make them more interesting.

Bruno, those are 100% numbers and assume that MCV are upweighting? Personally I'd assume that they are not upweighting and using the raw reported numbers. If so then 5.6% of that 5.7% increase is accounted for by the change from 90% to 95% market coverage estimate.

I hadn't thought about that, what you say makes a lot of sense. The results would also be in line with our previous estimates (780,000 for Advanced Warfare). This upweighting / unweighting thing can sometimes be confusing.

Does that mean that in the actual sales reports Call of Duty: Ghosts sold around 697,500 units and Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare 737,000?

Actual tracked sales from Chart-Track:

Call of Duty: Ghosts (90%) - 697,500
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (95%) - 737,000 [697,500 + 5.7%]

Upweighted to 100% of the market:

Call of Duty: Ghosts (100%) - 775,000
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (100%) - 776,000

 

[BKK]

Thank you all for the positive feedback, I always try to add some spice to these threads to make them more interesting.



I hadn't thought about that, what you say makes a lot of sense. The results would also be in line with our previous estimates (780,000 for Advanced Warfare). This upweighting / unweighting thing can sometimes be confusing.

Does that mean that in the actual sales reports Call of Duty: Ghosts sold around 697,500 units and Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare 737,000?

Actual tracked sales from Chart-Track:

Call of Duty: Ghosts (90%) - 697,500
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (95%) - 737,000 [697,500 + 5.7%]

Upweighted to 100% of the market:

Call of Duty: Ghosts (100%) - 775,000
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (100%) - 776,000

I think that is most likely, but difficult to know unless MCV confirms.

Having said that, I think it's quite possible that Chart-Track's coverage of 18+ titles may not have changed, and may have already been ~95%, with child friendly software being below 90% (maybe 85%?) bringing their average across the whole market to 90%. This is why they generally don't upweight individual titles to 100%.

With the collapse of Nintendo's market the latter may have become less relevant, resulting in Toys R Us' (the only major retailer they don't track) market share significantly declining. AFAIK Chart-Track haven't increased their market share estimates due to adding new retailers, just the retailers that they do track increasing theirs.

To support my hypothesis is the following quotes from a 2007 interview with Chart-Track's Dorian Bloch;

With what you’re doing in the UK, you’re working with 7,000 retail outlets, which you estimate is around 90% of the market?

It’s probably closer to 8,000, actually, so in the UK, in the leisure market, that’s around 90%. We’ve done establishment surveys with people like Take Two on San Andreas or Liberty City Stories or whatever or with EA on their products, and we’ve found that it can be as high as 95% coverage, so we really do have an extremely authoritative panel in the UK.

Are the retailers that you’re missing out on simply the smaller outlets in the market?

Basically. There isn’t really anyone of any significance in the UK that isn’t on the panel. The only one I would possibly mention is Toy ‘R’ Us, but that’s simply because they have a policy of not providing any information – and, of course, they don’t get any information back.

The beauty of being a participating retailer is that, not only do you get to see the size of the market and how it’s grown week on week, month on month, year on year, units, value, etc., but you get to see your share of the market and you get to work out whether you’re having any effect. You can tell whether you’re growing, whether you’re being successful compared to your competitors. So that’s pretty much the icing on the cake for retailers.

So as you can see, with 18+ titles like GTA their coverage was already as high as 95%, if so then maybe CoD did see a genuine increase even taking into account the 90%-95% overall market estimate change.

Also, thanks for the work you do in these threads, I know from experience that it takes a lot of time and effort.

 

[Moonstone]

Biu Sales Award October (Germany)

1 Mio Multiplatform
FIFA 15 (Electronic Arts / EA Canada)

Good performance. FIFA 13 reached 1 million around the same time. FIFA 12 and 14 reached 1 million in January. FIFA 11 reached it after 11 month.
PS4 >200k<500k.
PS3>200k<500k.
PC>100k<200k
XBO<100k

200k
Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts / DICE) PC
Watch Dogs (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Montreal) PS4

No digital sales this month - only retail. No XBO title at 100k - still (without bundles).

Edit: Not september - october

 

[BKK]

Biu Sales Award September (Germany)

1 Mio Multiplatform
FIFA 15 (Electronic Arts / EA Canada)

Good performance. FIFA 13 reached 1 million around the same time. FIFA 12 and 14 reached 1 million in January. FIFA 11 reached it after 11 month.
PS4 >200k<500k.
PS3>200k<500k.
PC>100k<200k
XBO<100k

200k
Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts / DICE) PC
Watch Dogs (Ubisoft / Ubisoft Montreal) PS4

No digital sales this month - only retail. No XBO title at 100k - still (without bundles).

FIFA is a good yardstick, "generational transition" is no excuse for poor sales whilst FIFA continues to show that it's perfectly possible to pass the transition with far less of a drop in sales than other (specifically CoD) franchises have seen.

 

[ninjablade]

Germany, Top 50 - Week 45 (Nov 3 - Nov 8)

01 (21) PS4 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
02 (NE) PS3 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
03 (NE) XBO Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
04 (01) PC Landwirtschafs-Simulator 15
05 (NE) 360 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
06 (13) PC Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
07 (02) PS4 FIFA 15
08 (03) PS3 FIFA 15
09 (NE) XBO Halo - The Master Chief Collection
10 (09) 3DS Tomodachi Life

11 (07) 3DS Super Smash Bros.
12 (05) PS4 The Evil Within
13 (06) PS4 Mittelerde: Mordors Schatten
14 (10) PS3 Minecraft
15 (12) PC Die Sims 4
16 (16) 360 FIFA 15
17 (04) PS4 Lords of the Fallen
18 (14) PS3 The Evil Within
19 (17) PS4 Destiny
20 (31) WII Just Dance 2015
21 (24) PS4 The Laft of Us
22 (15) PS4 NBA 2k15
23 (08) PS3 WWE 2k15
24 (28) WII Skylanders Trap Team
25 (11) XBO Sunset Overdrive
26 (20) PS4 The Walking Dead - GOTY Edition
27 (43) PS3 Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance
28 (19) PS4 The Walking Dead: Season 2
29 (30) PS4 Minecraft
30 (27) PS4 Driveclub
31 (44) 3DS Fantasy Life
32 (36) PS3 Grand Theft Auto V
33 (34) PS4 Battlefield 4
34 (39) 360 Minecraft
35 (18) PS4 SingStar: Ultimate Party
36 (37) PC Mittelerde: Mordors Schatten
37 (51) 3DS Animal Crossing: New Leaf
38 (33) XBO Forza Horizon 2
39 (41) PS3 Call of Duty: Black Ops II
40 (35) WII FIFA 15
41 (80) XBO FIFA 15
42 (40) PS3 The Walking Dead: Season 2
43 (45) PS4 Diablo III - Reaper of Souls
44 (26) PC Civilization: Beyond Earth
45 (54) PS3 Skylanders: Trap Team
46 (48) 3DS Disney Magical World
47 (60) WIU Mario Kart 8
48 (57) PS3 Diablo III - Reaper of Souls
49 (32) 360 The Evil Within
50 (66) PS3 The Walking Dead

Top 50
PS4 - 15
PS3 - 12
PC - 5
XBO - 5
3DS - 5
360 - 4
WII - 3
WIIU - 1

no legs for bayonetta 2 in Germany either.

 

[BKK]

Thanks Bruno.
So here we are.

Even ignoring the debate about whether the latest release of CoD is actually up 5.7% or not we can still see a huge decline in CoD sales. I'll be interested in what this chart shows for annual sales after 2014 figures are released ... franchises tend to get more front-loaded the older they are.

Still, I can see a direct correlation between CoD sales before and after the West, and Zampella incident, which at the time Activision claimed would have no impact on CoD sales. Of course it's more complicated than that, but I'm surprised that no-one has at least brought that up for discussion as a possible reason for the decline in CoD sales. I personally remember being surprised that a "dude bro" friend of mine was aware that CoD World at War was built by a different team than Modern Warfare and he expected it to be of nowhere near the same quality.

 

[Road]

Activision Blizzard has updated their PS4 + XBO in NA (NPD) and EU (Gfk) number to "approximately 15 million units" until Sep. 30: http://investor.activision.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1104659-14-76552

US alone was 8 million, leaving 6.5~7.5 million to Europe and Canada.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Germany, Top 50 - Week 45 (Nov 3 - Nov 8)

01 (21) PS4 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
02 (NE) PS3 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
03 (NE) XBO Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
04 (01) PC Landwirtschafs-Simulator 15
05 (NE) 360 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
06 (13) PC Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
07 (02) PS4 FIFA 15
08 (03) PS3 FIFA 15
09 (NE) XBO Halo - The Master Chief Collection
10 (09) 3DS Tomodachi Life

11 (07) 3DS Super Smash Bros.

Tomodachi higher than Smash. That game's Europe legs seem crazy.

 

[Majmun]

CoD AW PS4 was nr21 last week? Huh?

Expected a bigger debut for TMCC

 

[BKK]

Activision Blizzard has updated their PS4 + XBO in NA (NPD) and EU (Gfk) number to "approximately 15 million units" until Sep. 30: http://investor.activision.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1104659-14-76552

US alone was 8 million, leaving 6.5~7.5 million to Europe and Canada.

Massively overshipped then. The UK generally does a disproportionate amount of PAL sales for CoD compared to most other franchises. Even taking into account holiday sales that seems like a struggle to sell all of those at full price.

And of course, anyone versed in PR speak can realise that "approximately" actually means "less than", otherwise they use "more than".

Edit: Oh: they're claiming sell through and quoting actual trackers. I'm highly sceptical, I guess they qualify it with "in addition to internal estimates".

Edit 2: Oh, "September 30", so I guess that's total software not including CoD, forget what I said above.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

Massively overshipped then. The UK generally does a disproportionate amount of PAL sales for CoD compared to most other franchises. Even taking into account holiday sales that seems like a struggle to sell all of those at full price.

And of course, anyone versed in PR speak can realise that "approximately" actually means "less than", otherwise they use "more than".

Isn't that referring to Activision's estimates for hardware?

 

[BKK]

Isn't that referring to Activision's estimates for hardware?

Forget my post

 

[Foshy]

CoD AW PS4 was nr21 last week? Huh?

Expected a bigger debut for TMCC

A few shops probably broke release date.

And yeah, Halo seems a bit low even for Germany.

 

[Xando]

A few shops probably broke release date.

And yeah, Halo seems a bit low even for Germany.

Halo is official release will be in next weeks chart. These are copies sold early.

 

[BKK]

In my defense, there was a time when CoD shipping 15 million out of the gate wasn't that surprising I guess they gave no numbers for it this time.

 

[Foshy]

Halo is official release will be in next weeks chart. These are copies sold early.

You're right. Didn't bother checking the date.

In that case, it's already very high for not being officially released yet. Could either mean the official launch is gonna be absolutely massive or that pre-release sales already took some wind out of the day 1 numbers.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

In my defense, there was a time when CoD shipping 15 million out of the gate wasn't that surprising I guess they gave no numbers for it this time.

It took me a few goes to figure out it was referring to hardware as well, although my 1st thought was Destiny rather than CoD.

Took me even longer to find the section in the quarterly report, god financial reports are a slog to parse (it's pg.31 btw, for anyone wanting to doublecheck for themselves).