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[prinz_valium]

I get what you're saying. But they're still cheaper than Sony and more importantly have more perceived value. That's what matters these days. Sure they could go under $300 but what is that actually going to do for the company, not much outside of shift a few extra units and lower margin.

My birthday goes on as long as I say it does!

same goes for sony
if ms does not cut to 299, sony does not have to cut to 349 and they like healthy margins even more

sony will sell (in) 7 or 7.5? million ps4 this holiday quarter at 399/449
i doubt they would prefer 9 million at 349/399 over that
they will gladly do a pricecut, with a cheaper die shrinked version in the slow months 2016 to bump up the sales

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

[3DS] 99K
[PS4] 401K
[WIU] 49K
[XB1] 312K

 

[ascii42]

[3DS] 95K
[PS4] 395K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 290K

 

[RexNovis]

It's pretty much exactly what I said would happen.

Microsoft are going all out on bundles this holiday, and aggressively so. At the same time they're not looking to drop the price again as they did last year in order to generate higher margins. At the end of the day these bundles have been crafted so that consumers will think more about the value they're getting. There are a lot of them as you say but that's not a bad thing at all and can actually work in a lot of retailers favour as they can upsell to the "best" bundle or consumers can choose the one that is best in their price range or comes with what they want.

It's a smart move imo as it's likely they'll generate the same/more revenue this way compared to if they were to drop the price again and devalue the console even more.

I don't know Zhuge. A lot of these bundles feature kind of obscure titles with the exception of Halo, Forza and Tomb Raider. They also all price at either the same price as the PS4 ($399) or higher ($499) so they would lose one of their biggest selling points up until now, lower pricing. Part of the reason I find all these bundles so baffling is because only 1 or 2 have pack in games that actually seem appealing at the $399 prove point with the most appealing bundles all locked in at the higher, and historically tough to sell, $499 price point. I'm not really seeing any outstanding deals on offer here which is really odd considering how many bundles they are revealing.

I get what you're saying. But they're still cheaper than Sony and more importantly have more perceived value. That's what matters these days. Sure they could go under $300 but what is that actually going to do for the company, not much outside of shift a few extra units and lower margin.

My birthday goes on as long as I say it does!

Im really not seeing the "more perceived value" when they are inflating the price to be equal to or more than their competition. Especially when they've performed poorly at the same and higher price points. Not really sure I understand what your getting at here.

 

[Jigorath]

[3DS] 93K
[PS4] 402K
[WIU] 69K
[XB1] 247K

 

[harrisk954]

I thought this was pretty odd too. I figure the pending bundles might have people holding out for a sweeter deal, but... it seems unbelievable to me that not a single X1 is in the top 100, especially a month before their biggest franchise. I know most people who want Halo probably already bought one, but... really? Did sales tank that badly?

also saving my spot for predictions... coming soon.

I know that Amazon is only one indicator and I am not sure how big of an indicator it is compared to brick and mortar store sales (Gamestop, Best Buy, Target, etc.). But, if PS4 beats XB1 in October, it will not bode well for MS this holiday. At least on paper, the weeks leading up to Halo 5 launching should be huge for them and the trending on Amazon does not indicate that is happening.

If they lose October, that is bad for them even if they win November and/or December, because I don't think that it will be by much. PS4 is also going to sell huge this holiday season, especially if rumors of a price cut end up being true.

I know it goes without saying, but next month is going to be a very interesting NPD!!

 

[CosmicQueso]

I find all these bundles so baffling.

I think you may have thought I was kidding when I said that one of the reasons for the multiple bundles would be to increase presence at retail, assuming more bundles would equate to more facings on shelf at a GameStop or Best Buy.

I'm not kidding. I think having so many bundles is intended to increase retail presence and attract eyeballs in store while hoping to achieve more sales by casting a huge fishing net of bundle variety.

It's the only logical explanation I can come up with.

EDIT: To be clear, I'm only speculating and have no direct knowledge.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

I think you may have thought I was kidding when I said that one of the reasons for the multiple bundles would be to increase presence at retail, assuming more bundles would equate to more facings on shelf at a GameStop or Best Buy.

I'm not kidding. I think having so many bundles is intended to increase retail presence and attract eyeballs in store while hoping to achieve more sales by casting a huge fishing net of bundle variety.

It's the only logical explanation I can come up with.

That would make sense.

Except that some of these bundles are Walmart or Best Buy or Gamestop exclusives.

 

[RealityPales]

Remember when Pachter thought Xbox One beat out the PS4 in September of last year. When DESTINY came out?

Genius.

 

[Bgamer90]

I think you may have thought I was kidding when I said that one of the reasons for the multiple bundles would be to increase presence at retail, assuming more bundles would equate to more facings on shelf at a GameStop or Best Buy.

I'm not kidding. I think having so many bundles is intended to increase retail presence and attract eyeballs in store while hoping to achieve more sales by casting a huge fishing net of bundle variety.

It's the only logical explanation I can come up with.

I'm sure this plays a role.

The Holiday season also has many people who aren't deeply into gaming buying consoles so a console that has free games (whether they are old or new) will be seen as a better deal to some than a SKU without any free games (even if it's $100 cheaper).

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Remember when Pachter thought Xbox One beat out the PS4 in September of last year. When DESTINY came out?

Genius.

Her XB1 predictions was not that bad, maybe a bit too optimist...
Her Wii U predictions was pretty damn close.

He was litterally off with PS4... 250,000 VS 538,000,115% difference.

 

[slavesnyder]

same goes for sony
if ms does not cut to 299, sony does not have to cut to 349 and they like healthy margins even more

sony will sell (in) 7 or 7.5? million ps4 this holiday quarter at 399/449
i doubt they would prefer 9 million at 349/399 over that
they will gladly do a pricecut, with a cheaper die shrinked version in the slow months 2016 to bump up the sales

It's not that easy, and here we go again with our favorite discussion.
Price drop or not, or: margin vs. market share.

It's cool to make profit on a sold console, but it might be also nice to sell the extra console, thanks to lower price, and get revenue from additional sales of games, subscriptions, services, (VR helmets even) and the joy of market share power.
In this gen, i think most people buy either one console or the other, so a console bought from your competitor might be a lost source for the rest of the generation.

Finding the balance here (or, as google puts it, the Cournot point) is damn difficult, at least for me. So I have no idea if Queso or Zughe are right, laughing away the price-drop-supporters. But i think they are right predicting that there will be no drop this year.
It seems like Sony, and nowerdays Microsoft are preferring to play it safe, and that's fine. They should have done their homework and decisions.

Or, on point:
"Au football, tout est compliqué par la présence de l'équipe adverse"
(Jean-Paul Sartre)

 

[blakep267]

I don't know Zhuge. A lot of these bundles feature kind of obscure titles with the exception of Halo, Forza and Tomb Raider. They also all price at either the same price as the PS4 ($399) or higher ($499) so they would lose one of their biggest selling points up until now, lower pricing. Part of the reason I find all these bundles so baffling is because only 1 or 2 have pack in games that actually seem appealing at the $399 prove point with the most appealing bundles all locked in at the higher, and historically tough to sell, $499 price point. I'm not really seeing any outstanding deals on offer here which is really odd considering how many bundles they are revealing.



Im really not seeing the "more perceived value" when they are inflating the price to be equal to or more than their competition. Especially when they've performed poorly at the same and higher price points. Not really sure I understand what your getting at here.

How are they inflating the price. All of their 500 gb and 1tb gb are $50 less than their competitors equivalent offerings. The 500gb is still $349 and the 1tb is 399 and they are throwing in free games on top of it. You get a tomb raider bundle with 2 games and 1tb for $399 or ps4 cod with 500gb for 399. Sure COD is more popular than tomb raider but you are getting more "things" for the same price with the Xbox in this example

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

People really think MS won't cut XB1 price this Holiday? I think it's almost a given. There's a $350 bundle isn't there, so a $299 temp promotion for standalone, small HDD 'Bone incoming.

 

[Possumowner]

[3DS] 85K
[PS4] 410K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 255K

 

[prinz_valium]

Finding the balance here (or, as google puts it, the Cournot point) is damn difficult, at least for me. So I have no idea if Queso or Zughe are right, laughing away the price-drop-supporters. But i think they are right predicting that there will be no drop this year.
It seems like Sony, and nowerdays Microsoft are preferring to play it safe, and that's fine. They should have done their homework and decisions.

Or, on point:
"Au football, tout est compliqué par la présence de l'équipe adverse"
(Jean-Paul Sartre)

fair point

 

[CosmicQueso]

That would make sense.

Except that some of these bundles are Walmart or Best Buy or Gamestop exclusives.

Then you get a whole 4' row of the exclusive bundle with big signs saying "EXCLUSIVE TO GAMESTOP!"

Same, if not bigger, effect.

 

[allan-bh]

People really think MS won't cut XB1 price this Holiday? I think it's almost a given. There's a $350 bundle isn't there, so a $299 temp promotion for standalone, small HDD 'Bone incoming.

If Sony cut the price they will, if not will remain the same price (But on BF last year was $329, so now will be $299).

 

[slavesnyder]

Then you get a whole 4' row of the exclusive bundle with big signs saying "EXCLUSIVE TO GAMESTOP!"

Same, if not bigger, effect.

One question: isn't channel stuffing somehow annoying for retailers? Didn't MS do the same thing last year?
Or is the carrot of exclusivity just too tasty?
In the end, the retailers have a full right of returns, or? So, all bundles that did not work go back to Redmond as long as they are not offering heavy discounts I guess.

 

[allan-bh]

One question: isn't channel stuffing somehow annoying for retailers? Didn't MS do the same thing last year?
Or is the carrot of exclusivity just too tasty?
In the end, the retailers have a full right of returns, or? So, all bundles that did not work go back to Redmond as long as they are not offering heavy discounts I guess.

Retailers only buy the volume they want, so I don't think is annoying.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I don't know Zhuge. A lot of these bundles feature kind of obscure titles with the exception of Halo, Forza and Tomb Raider. They also all price at either the same price as the PS4 ($399) or higher ($499) so they would lose one of their biggest selling points up until now, lower pricing. Part of the reason I find all these bundles so baffling is because only 1 or 2 have pack in games that actually seem appealing at the $399 prove point with the most appealing bundles all locked in at the higher, and historically tough to sell, $499 price point. I'm not really seeing any outstanding deals on offer here which is really odd considering how many bundles they are revealing.

Im really not seeing the "more perceived value" when they are inflating the price to be equal to or more than their competition. Especially when they've performed poorly at the same and higher price points. Not really sure I understand what your getting at here.

It still is lower pricing though. With the PS4 you get a console and a game for $399. Lets say for example that PS4 drops to $349 for that bundle. Well it's price parity then. The difference being that Microsoft have "better" bundles on offer at higher price points making the upsell much easier. When it comes down to it research shows that consumers will always buy a game with a console, especially during the holiday season and so an extra $50 for 3 retail games or whatever is a fairly attractive proposal. Therefore they have more perceived value with their bundles here.

I agree the Kinect $499 bundle just won't move the needle.

What Microsoft are trying to do is avoid cutting the price, but at the same time cut the price psychologically. The consumer pays more but in their head they've worked out they're only paying $299 for the console because the games cost $100 (just giving examples and stuff).

The holidays are always strong for Microsoft and it's more the other months that see low sales. No doubt Microsoft will be able to shift a number of units this holiday thanks to Halo alone and the other exclusive / marketed titles.

I think you may have thought I was kidding when I said that one of the reasons for the multiple bundles would be to increase presence at retail, assuming more bundles would equate to more facings on shelf at a GameStop or Best Buy.

I'm not kidding. I think having so many bundles is intended to increase retail presence and attract eyeballs in store while hoping to achieve more sales by casting a huge fishing net of bundle variety.

It's the only logical explanation I can come up with.

This plays a part as well of course.

Finding the balance here (or, as google puts it, the Cournot point) is damn difficult, at least for me. So I have no idea if Queso or Zughe are right, laughing away the price-drop-supporters. But i think they are right predicting that there will be no drop this year.
It seems like Sony, and nowerdays Microsoft are preferring to play it safe, and that's fine. They should have done their homework and decisions.

Microsoft just won't want to devalue the console further when this is their "strongest line up in Xbox history" and when they have the ability to create value around the bundles they're putting together.

I believe Sony will take a similar approach as already shown but it's likely they will have a price cut this holiday and I've been saying for a long time that now would be the perfect time to do it even if they technically don't need to.

 

[freefornow]

[3DS] 102K
[PS4] 403K
[WIU] 54k
[XB1] 326K

 

[slavesnyder]

Well, microsoft playing the added-value-card and trying to keep the price up while Sony just cuts the price would be inverse roles suddenly. I wonder how this would play out.
How very interesting...

 

[DarthWalden]

People really think MS won't cut XB1 price this Holiday? I think it's almost a given. There's a $350 bundle isn't there, so a $299 temp promotion for standalone, small HDD 'Bone incoming.

Yup. At current prices these bundles offer less value then they did last year. They are setting themselves up for a temporary holiday price cut similar to last year.

Between an Xbox that Is selling at 250$ that is 100$ off MSRP or an Xbox that is selling for 250$ that is 50$ off MSRP What's a better deal? You might be thinking "they're the same price dummy" but this trick is used frequently across the retail industry to present the false allure of value. Everyone loves a greatdeal.

 

[Javin98]

[PS4] 415K
[XB1] 295K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 50K

I'll probably be editing PS4 and XB1 numbers numerous times.

 

[RexNovis]

I think you may have thought I was kidding when I said that one of the reasons for the multiple bundles would be to increase presence at retail, assuming more bundles would equate to more facings on shelf at a GameStop or Best Buy.

I'm not kidding. I think having so many bundles is intended to increase retail presence and attract eyeballs in store while hoping to achieve more sales by casting a huge fishing net of bundle variety.

It's the only logical explanation I can come up with.

I wasn't aware that shelf real estate was such a concern for them. They seem to have a pretty established presence at retail in the states. But you would know more about this than myself so I don't doubt it. It just seems like a round about and costly way to secure more retail presence to me. I can see that being a reason though.

 

[EV4D]

For what its worth, NPD data for September will be delayed a few days. The new publish date is Monday October 19th. NPD announced this to all their customers, and many PR agencies are aware of this delay so this isn't top secret or anything....

 

[Welfare]

For what its worth, NPD data for September will be delayed a few days. The new publish date is Monday October 19th. NPD announced this to all their customers, and many PR agencies are aware of this delay so this isn't top secret or anything....

A monday that I won't hate.

 

[RexNovis]

snip

Zhuge I'm confused the bundles are priced at $399 (same price as PS4) or $499 (more expensive than PS4) how is that less expensive? The $499 bundles I was talking about were the Elite bundle and Halo bundles. It does look like the Lego movie bundle is priced at $350 though so there's at least one new bundle priced under current PS4 MSRP.

For what its worth, NPD data for September will be delayed a few days. The new publish date is Monday October 19th. NPD announced this to all their customers, and many PR agencies are aware of this delay so this isn't top secret or anything....

Did they give any particular reason for the delay?

 

[On Demand]

People really think MS won't cut XB1 price this Holiday? I think it's almost a given. There's a $350 bundle isn't there, so a $299 temp promotion for standalone, small HDD 'Bone incoming.

How many price cuts do you guys expect them to do? They had so many already and "officially" made it $350 a couple of months ago. They don't need to anyway, they're in a completely different position going into this holiday than last year. It would be a waste of profits if they do imo.

The 5 bundles are your price cuts.

 

[Boke1879]

Rofl.

Hahaha.

I was expecting my pre-order of the game, and maybe a few more. We got like 14 to 20 copies in several stores.

While our orders for Cod are in the hundreds. Going to be crazy

Can you give us any insight to platform splits on COD or Battlefront maybe? Or is it too early to deduce anything?

 

[EV4D]

Did they give any particular reason for the delay?

System upgrades. Its been a long time since they have had one so they are due.

 

[GameWhisperer]

My First prediction thread, so excited

[PS4] 378K
[XB1] 255K
[3DS] 84K
[WIU] 41K

 

[GameWhisperer]

People really think MS won't cut XB1 price this Holiday? I think it's almost a given. There's a $350 bundle isn't there, so a $299 temp promotion for standalone, small HDD 'Bone incoming.

They cannot keep dropping the price every year while their competitor keeps outselling them, that's a slippery slope..MS is not a charity. They can only go so low, MS drops too soon too often Sony has all the cards to play, they kind of already do really.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

I get what you're saying. But they're still cheaper than Sony and more importantly have more perceived value. That's what matters these days. Sure they could go under $300 but what is that actually going to do for the company, not much outside of shift a few extra units and lower margin.

My birthday goes on as long as I say it does!

I think it's the other way around actually; all the price cuts and bundles have basically made people perceive the XBO as a console as being of much less value/prestige compared to PS4 and it can only hope to offset that with big bundles and cheap prices.

A PS4 w/ 2 bundled games and an XBO with two bundled games where the PS4 is just $50 more still creates better perceived value for the PS4 because of the tech advantage and its position in the global market. For the hardware alone they could go for $100 more but aren't; that's already value for cost-conscious shoppers.

 

[3rdamention]

Does September falls under pre-season?

Yeah, I am pretty sure October, November and December are Greenburg specific postseason months. Those are the only 3 months that matter all year.

 

[Boke1879]

They cannot keep dropping the price every year while their competitor keeps outselling them, that's a slippery slope..MS is not a charity. They can only go so low, MS drops too soon too often Sony has all the cards to play, they kind of already do really.

Yea. Unofficially I can see stores selling the console for like $329 again during the holidays. But I just can't see MS dropping the price to $299. I would seriously question if they wanted this machine to be profitable at this point.

Fact is. They invested a ton of money into Kinect that's not pretty much useless going forward.

MS just needs to stay par for the course. Halo will sell Xboxs.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Yeah, I am pretty sure October, November and December are Greenburg specific postseason months. Those are the only 3 months that matter all year.

What if the PS4 takes November and/or December?

"October is the only month of the year that truly matters. November and December are just the preseason for the preseason."

 

[The Mad Draklor]

They cannot keep dropping the price every year while their competitor keeps outselling them, that's a slippery slope..MS is not a charity. They can only go so low, MS drops too soon too often Sony has all the cards to play, they kind of already do really.

Also, going from $399 for just the console to $349 for the console + two games was a giant leap in value last year. That is something you cannot match with just another $50 price cut.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Yea. Unofficially I can see stores selling the console for like $329 again during the holidays. But I just can't see MS dropping the price to $299. I would seriously question if they wanted this machine to be profitable at this point.

Fact is. They invested a ton of money into Kinect that's not pretty much useless going forward.

MS just needs to stay par for the course. Halo will sell Xboxs.

That is how I see it as well. If this the greatest Xbox lineup in history, rely on it to sell some X1s. The price shouldn't have to go down if the lineup is so amazing.

With that being said, I would not be surprised whatsoever for MS to go nuts this holiday with a $50 drop and 2-4 games packed in, for example.

 

[Boke1879]

What if the PS4 takes November and/or December?

"October is the only month of the year that truly matters. November and December are just the preseason for the preseason."

November honestly seems up in the air right now. With COD and Battlefront being released and having bundles with Sony puts the PS4 in a very strong position to take the month.

Of course Xbox still has FO4 marketing rights and I kinda expect them to announce that bundle tomorrow it makes sense, but who knows.

I can also see Sony being very coy during the fallout 4 launch. Something like free copy of Fallout 4 with any PS4 purchase.

 

[prinz_valium]

who ever wins November, will also win December

Spoiler

unless it's just a 7-10k gap

ms will win October

Spoiler

unless sony will announce a pricedrop

the only interesting™ NPD month this year will be November

 

[Welfare]

October will be interesting™ to see how big of a gap the Xbox One and PS4 will have.

 

[Boke1879]

who ever wins November, will also win December

Spoiler

unless it's just a 7-10k gap

ms will win october unless sony will announce a pricedrop
the only interesting NPD month this year will be November

Agreed with you on all fronts. November most likely decides December

 

[GameWhisperer]

October will be interesting™ to see how big of a gap the Xbox One and PS4 will have.

Sony will drop the price and win Oct, you heard it here first .

 

[renjworks]

is a junior allowed to make a prediction? if so, then ...

[3DS] 100K
[PS4] 510K
[WIU] 43K
[XB1] 320K

I put PS4 with that figure because of Destiny TTK, MGSV, FIFA (all Playstation-associated games) and Madmax (stronger sales on PS4). I feel the difference would be very significant between PS4 and XB1.

 

[...Scatter...]

Do we know, or have an estimate, of how much the XBOX One costs to manufacture now, almost 2 years from launch? If they were breaking even at launch or making a small profit, they must be doing much better now.

 

[Fat4all]

Sony will drop the price and win Oct, you heard it here first .

I've heard it every day for the past 5 months, so kinda far from first.

 

[GameWhisperer]

I've heard it every day for the past 5 months, so kinda far from first.

I was being facetious.....why so serious lol. I am clearly aware I am not the first to think of such a possibility.

 

[Fat4all]

I was being facetious.....why so serious lol. I am clearly aware I am not the first to think of such a possibility.

Shoulda used a winky face.