Careful there, champ. Occam's *razor* (not "law"; never "law") is a heuristic useful for guiding inquiry but is not itself a method of deduction. Occam's razor would have you conclude the kid just slacked off his homework--that takes fewer assumptions than believing his story about spilling gravy on his homework and his dog eating it. But sometimes the dog does eat the homework.
Occam's razor isn't really relevant in a prosecutorial context: the goal of an investigation and subsequent trial is not to find *someone* guilty for every crime that happens; we're not trying to solve "which of these is more likely" we're trying to solve "which of these is likely to have happened in itself and beyond reasonable doubt". We don't have to pick among competing theories here, we can simply reject them all.
Thanks, and yeah, Occam's razor is what I meant to say.
You are 100% correct in what you are saying with regards to a prosecution requiring evidence greater than: "this theory is the more likely of the two proposed theories."
What I really mean to say is that if you apply Occam's razor to the two competing theories that:
a) Jay's telling more or less the truth, and Adnan was the murderer
or
b) Jay committed the murder without a realistic motive, without anyone seeing Adnan and providing him an alibi, without greatly contradicting Adnan's cell phone records etc.
Then I know which one requires a lot less assumptions, and which one I think is more likely.
Of course, both of these theories could be wrong, but I'm not in the jury, I'm merely trying to weigh up the evidence as it comes through each week.