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[serversurfer]

In other words, the console market will be much smaller compared to last gen when all is said and done. And I'm not going to delve into the reasons why as that would take too long. But lets just say that I'm expecting a whole 100m+ less sales this gen. A lot of people forget that all 3 consoles last gen shipped over 85m with the Wii shipping over 100m. The Wii U will not even hit 25m, The PS4 could match and exceed PS3 or even Wii sales but again the Xbox One won't if my prediction rings true.

Nice analysis, and I agree with most of your major points. It's highly unlikely we'll see 270M+ consoles sold this generation.

Spoiler

Although, if Sony get even 10% of China…

Similarly, it's highly unlikely Sony will ship 5M this quarter.

That said, I do expect to see Sony's shipments up around the 20M mark for 2015, which would average out to 5M/Q. Obviously, Sony's sales will be heavily loaded in to Q4, but I don't think that was true of the Wii so much. They didn't ship 5M per in the first three quarters and another 15M in Q4 or anything like that, did they? What did they ship in their second full calendar year?

I do think Sony will cut the price just as much as they can afford to this year. It's time, really. This holiday we'll be two full years in to the generation. That's kind of a while, actually. Sony said they're reaching out to casuals this year, and holding firm on pricing doesn't strike me as much of a "reach." Many have argued against Sony cutting the price, but their reasoning seems largely circular; sales will slow because there is no price cut to spur them, because there's no slow-down to trigger a cut… That, or they argue that Sony can't afford to cut the price, but as I pointed out, if that were the case, they wouldn't have been able to afford to launch the damned thing in the first place.

Per Sony, their production costs had already dropped by May, and that was like eight months ago. Clearly, Sony have room to adjust the price. The only question is, "Just how low is the BOM now?" If they go back to, "profitable, with the initial purchase and attach," then I don't see how that's any more likely to ruin them than the launch itself did. People argue there's no motivation for them to cut the price without someone up in their grill, but again, that completely ignores what actually happened in the PS1/PS2 era. It seems to me that Sony lay out their business plan and then stick to it pretty closely, regardless of what may be going on around them. I'm sure it gets tweaked along the way, but I don't think, "Let's wait and see what the other guys are doing," is actually written in to the plan anywhere. Sony have never struck me as particularly reactionary.

I do expect XBone shipments to drop considerably in 2015 though. They've already dipped heavily in to the "price cuts and bundles" bag, and all indications are that they're heavily over-shipped, possibly even in the US. I expect the PlayStation vs. XBox battle to reach a tipping point this year, and I don't really see how that ends up in Microsoft's favor. Not with them scrambling to buy relevance in the only market that cared about them even a little bit.

I don't pay enough attention to Nintendo and their sales to really know how they're going to fair, but I do think they have a strong case for being "the alternative to PlayStation," especially if and when the PS/XB fight reaches that tipping point. Regardless, Nintendo know how to run their business, and they will live to fight another day. I expect them to come out swinging in Gen9, even if they don't fare well in Gen8. They surprised us all in Gen7 after getting their butts kicked in Gen5 and Gen6, so to count them out seems foolish to me. They've won most of the generations they've participated in, after all. Conversely, this seems like the "make or break" generation for the XBox brand. Without some major, unforeseen reversal, I don't really see an XBox Too in our future. Or XB∞x, or whatever the fuck they decide to call it.

NHL 15 just released, though the ps4 version is in some ways lesser then the ps3 version feature wise. Given the last NHL game my sister played was on the ps2 (my old one I gave her to play GH on), I doubt she'd notice the missing stuff.

Weird. What's missing?

But what happens if Morpheus attracts the casual crowd. Could this be sonys wii?

Impossible to say at this point, but it's entirely possible. I haven't had a chance to try anything since Virtuality, but modern VR is apparently quite compelling. The (hopefully) impending Morpheus launch is another reason I expect them to push for a significant price cut on the PS4 itself this year.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Nice analysis, and I agree with most of your major points. It's highly unlikely we'll see 270M+ consoles sold this generation.

Spoiler

Although, if Sony get even 10% of China…

Similarly, it's highly unlikely Sony will ship 5M this quarter.
(...)
Impossible to say at this point, but it's entirely possible. I haven't had a chance to try anything since Virtuality, but modern VR is apparently quite compelling. The (hopefully) impending Morpheus launch is another reason I expect them to push for a significant price cut on the PS4 itself this year.

Modern VC is indeed compelling. But it I guess nobody can say for sure if it really is the next big thing, a temporary fashion or a busted flush. I wouldn`t bet a cent on either possibility.

Spoiler

Although, if Sony get even 10% of China…

 

[ZhugeEX]

Nice analysis, and I agree with most of your major points. It's highly unlikely we'll see 270M+ consoles sold this generation.

Spoiler

Although, if Sony get even 10% of China…

Similarly, it's highly unlikely Sony will ship 5M this quarter.

That said, I do expect to see Sony's shipments up around the 20M mark for 2015, which would average out to 5M/Q. Obviously, Sony's sales will be heavily loaded in to Q4, but I don't think that was true of the Wii so much. They didn't ship 5M per in the first three quarters and another 15M in Q4 or anything like that, did they? What did they ship in their second full calendar year?.

10.4m is close to 15m haha. And you have to remember that during this period the Wii was sold out pretty much everywhere. Yes the PS4 has had supply problems as well and even now is selling everything it ships. But the Wii was on another level.

Just looking at the below may show the PS4 in a stronger position, and tbh it is, it's been tracking ahead of the Wii all the way up to this quarter. But the Wii goes mental in 2008 and finally becomes in stock everywhere. Just look at Q4.

I do think Sony will cut the price just as much as they can afford to this year. It's time, really. This holiday we'll be two full years in to the generation. That's kind of a while, actually. Sony said they're reaching out to casuals this year, and holding firm on pricing doesn't strike me as much of a "reach." Many have argued against Sony cutting the price, but their reasoning seems largely circular; sales will slow because there is no price cut to spur them, because there's no slow-down to trigger a cut… That, or they argue that Sony can't afford to cut the price, but as I pointed out, if that were the case, they wouldn't have been able to afford to launch the damned thing in the first place.

Per Sony, their production costs had already dropped by May, and that was like eight months ago. Clearly, Sony have room to adjust the price. The only question is, "Just how low is the BOM now?" If they go back to, "profitable, with the initial purchase and attach," then I don't see how that's any more likely to ruin them than the launch itself did. People argue there's no motivation for them to cut the price without someone up in their grill, but again, that completely ignores what actually happened in the PS1/PS2 era. It seems to me that Sony lay out their business plan and then stick to it pretty closely, regardless of what may be going on around them. I'm sure it gets tweaked along the way, but I don't think, "Let's wait and see what the other guys are doing," is actually written in to the plan anywhere. Sony have never struck me as particularly reactionary.

I do expect XBone shipments to drop considerably in 2015 though. They've already dipped heavily in to the "price cuts and bundles" bag, and all indications are that they're heavily over-shipped, possibly even in the US. I expect the PlayStation vs. XBox battle to reach a tipping point this year, and I don't really see how that ends up in Microsoft's favor. Not with them scrambling to buy relevance in the only market that cared about them even a little bit.

I don't pay enough attention to Nintendo and their sales to really know how they're going to fair, but I do think they have a strong case for being "the alternative to PlayStation," especially if and when the PS/XB fight reaches that tipping point. Regardless, Nintendo know how to run their business, and they will live to fight another day.

I'd say Xbox will ship either the same or slightly more this year. They are the only legitimate competition out there for the PS4 and the USA is a big enough market to provide good enough sales for the Xbox One. But overall the gap between PS4 and X1 will continue growing overall.

Regarding Wii U, they won't do well this gen which is unfortunate.

 

[freefornow]

Sony has fought and won this generation, but they might as well keep the foot on the metal all throughout the start of the next one.

Not much of a fight when your opponent is the equivalent of the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

 

[noobie]

Posted in PAL thread..

Game PLC Christmas Trading Update

The Group's overall market share by value for the financial year has been maintained at 33% in the UK, whilst in Spain our share has risen 2% to 37% following the addition of 44 GameStop stores in November 2014 which have all been rebranded as GAME stores.

This activity has driven the installed base of Xbox One and PlayStation 4 owners in our two major markets to over 4 million within 13 months of the new console format launches, well ahead of expectations at the time of launch - and twice as fast as the previous generation of consoles.

The divergence in the performance of the UK and Spanish markets has become more pronounced since the end of the first quarter. In the UK, the value of software sales rose 8% year-on-year over the Christmas period, as consumers purchased more content for next generation consoles, whilst in Spain, software sales fell 7% over the same period.

More at link.

 

[psn]

Yes...... casual crowd........

Day1!!!!!!

 

[Daviii]

Not exactly. The Wii audience grew up. That's what happened

Oh. And they died. I see.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Posted in PAL thread..

Backs up what I said about EU market growth.

 

[DieH@rd]

And this is with PS4 getting ~4M less in Japan. Incredible.

 

[serversurfer]

But the Wii goes mental in 2008 and finally becomes in stock everywhere. Just look at Q4.

Oof. That's a lot of hardware. Then yeah, there's no way PS4 matches that, even at $299. That said, I still think it can overtake the Wii in the long run, if only because it's likely to have longer legs. PS4 is outpacing PS2, which went on to sell 150M, after all.

I'd say Xbox will ship either the same or slightly more this year. They are the only legitimate competition out there for the PS4 and the USA is a big enough market to provide good enough sales for the Xbox One.

But, ship them to where, exactly? Retailers in Germany are taking it upon themselves to dump stock, and I think Germany is a comparatively strong market for them. A lot of the 2014 shipments went to cover the Tier 2 launches, and I doubt most of them are in any more need of a restock than the Germans are. You say the US will provide "good enough" sales for them; are you predicting XBone to overtake PS4 in the US this year, and by a healthy margin? If not, I'm not really seeing the justification for increased shipments; doubly so if they've been stuffing as it is. Where exactly are you seeing an increase in retail demand for the Bone?

Posted in PAL thread..

Then can we get an idea of how PS4 is faring in Spain? Figuring 3M combined for UK should leave Sony right around 1M units in Spain, yes? Or would the UK be higher than that now?

 

[RalchAC]

Then can we get an idea of how PS4 is faring in Spain? Figuring 3M combined for UK should leave Sony right around 1M units in Spain, yes? Or would the UK be higher than that now?

Sony Spain said in an interview that they expected around 700k systems after Christmas (which means after January 6th in Spain).

It was at 360.000 units last time they gave numbers, in October 2014. And there were some decent to good sales for a while (a big retailer did a 20€x20months promotion again, for example) so I think 700-800k systems sold sounds posible.

1 million is too much IMO. France and Germany are bigger markets and sold 1 million not so long ago (I've fastly Googled, news from Germany are from Nov 18th, and France Dec 18th).

Edit: Missquoted. I couldn't avoid quoting that VR lady.

 

[ZhugeEX]

And this is with PS4 getting ~4M less in Japan. Incredible.

Yep, PS4 is amazing, especially without Japan. One thing that has changed though, and not by much, but enough, is the emerging markets. Blimey I can't use commas.

What I mean is that emerging markets such as India, UAE, South Africa, even Europe which isn't classed as an emerging market has seen a lot of growth in terms of console sales recently. And that's why even without Japan we are seeing really healthy sales.

Oof. That's a lot of hardware. Then yeah, there's no way PS4 matches that, even at $299. That said, I still think it can overtake the Wii in the long run, if only because it's likely to have longer legs. PS4 is outpacing PS2, which went on to sell 150M, after all.

In the long term yes, not in the short term.

But, ship them to where, exactly? Retailers in Germany are taking it upon themselves to dump stock, and I think Germany is a comparatively strong market for them. A lot of the 2014 shipments went to cover the Tier 2 launches, and I doubt most of them are in any more need of a restock than the Germans are. You say the US will provide "good enough" sales for them; are you predicting XBone to overtake PS4 in the US this year, and by a healthy margin? If not, I'm not really seeing the justification for increased shipments; doubly so if they've been stuffing as it is. Where exactly are you seeing an increase in retail demand for the Bone?

What I mean is that the US market is massive. Lets use smartphones as an example here. (Because I work in this industry and it's a good example to use).

Have you heard of Xiaomi? They are a Chinese manufacturer who are doing very very well in China. In fact, there are doing so well in China that they are now one of the top 5 largest smartphone manufacturers worldwide despite 95% of all their shipments going to China. So despite being in one territory only, they're massive on a global scale.

It's not the best example but what I'm trying to say is that, No, the Xbox One will not over take the PS4 in the USA. In fact my prediction model at the moment shows the PS4 continuing to outsell the Xbox One in the US and the gap to gradually increase over the next 3 quarters.

What I am saying is that the US market is big enough for the Xbox to still ship quite a number per year. It's probably already shipped around 6 million units + LTD in the US, 4m of which would be in CY2014 and It'll probably sell about that this year as well + the UK + ROW will probably add up to more than what it sold in 2014 total. Sure I'm not expecting a huge bump, but to sell ever so slightly more in 2015 than it did in 2014 would be likely, especially if we get that official $349 price cut again.

The US and UK still see the Xbox brand as strong and even though the PS4 will do better in both the markets, The US and UK, are big enough to see the Xbox brand grow. Everyone knows the PS4 is selling much better in the USA, yet the Xbox One was able to outsell it in November by a healthy margin, perhaps even December too. Sure it's a one off but it still matters and shows that at least in the US there is demand for an Xbox console. Less than the PS4 but demand none the less.

But that's just my prediction. I can always be wrong.

Then can we get an idea of how PS4 is faring in Spain? Figuring 3M combined for UK should leave Sony right around 1M units in Spain, yes? Or would the UK be higher than that now?

Again hard to say but i'd say 3m in the UK would be accurate guess. Perhaps even higher as I'd put PS4 at ever so under 2m and Xbox One is certainly over 1m.

The last official numbers we had from GFK was 2m PS4/X1 cumulative in the UK and 410k cumulative PS4/X1 in Spain.

 

[serversurfer]

Yep, PS4 is amazing, especially without Japan. One thing that has changed though, and not by much, but enough, is the emerging markets.

My impression of the Japanese market is they don't buy very much hardware at all until the game they want comes out, at which point they proceed to buy a metric fucktonne of the stuff. Is that an accurate assessment? If so, rather than dead in the water, might the PS4 be a late bloomer, with games like Bloodborne, Dragon's Quest, and Street Fighter yet to launch? Has there been anything the JP market "should've" pounced on, but didn't?

In the long term yes, not in the short term.

*steels himself for the onslaught of Gaming is Dead posts to follow Sony's annuals*

What I am saying is that the US market is big enough for the Xbox to still ship quite a number per year. It's probably already shipped around 6 million units + LTD in the US, 4m of which would be in CY2014 and It'll probably sell about that this year as well + the UK + ROW will probably add up to more than what it sold in 2014 total. Sure I'm not expecting a huge bump, but to sell ever so slightly more in 2015 than it did in 2014 would be likely, especially if we get that official $349 price cut again.

Sure, I'll buy that, but that's where you lose me. So, we're saying 4M in the US and another 1M in the UK. Seem fair? Let's also be generous and assume they didn't go in to 2014 overstocked. Then 5M sales means 5M shipments, right? We're replenishing the channel rather than filling it, yes? That leave us 2.8M units shy of your 2014 estimate, and about 5M shy of your initial prediction for 2015. Obviously, ROTW is gonna order some this year, but FIVE MILLION UNITS? Da fuq? =/

Again hard to say but i'd say 3m in the UK would be accurate guess. Perhaps even higher as I'd put PS4 at ever so under 2m and Xbox One is certainly over 1m.

The last official numbers we had from GFK was 2m PS4/X1 cumulative in the UK and 410k cumulative PS4/X1 in Spain.

Gotcha.

Blimey I can't use commas.

Commas are confusing. lol <3

 

[PoweredByHentai]

My impression of the Japanese market is they don't buy very much hardware at all until the game they want comes out, at which point they proceed to buy a metric fucktonne of the stuff. Is that an accurate assessment? If so, rather than dead in the water, might the PS4 be a late bloomer, with games like Bloodborne, Dragon's Quest, and Street Fighter yet to launch? Has there been anything the JP market "should've" pounced on, but didn't?

I think what they are waiting for is a proper (or a major) JRPG. That and maybe Gran Turismo.

I mentioned this in the NPD thread but PS4 is now sitting at #15 on Amazon.com's 2015 Bestseller list.

 

[Brad Grenz]

If xbox one almost sold almost 10 million last year, I don't see why it couldn't sell 10 this year, right? PS4 could get 40-50 mil if they have a 299 price point plus they have more games this year.

Xbox One didn't sell 10M last year. It sold 6-7M last year, and 3M the year before that.

 

[Inuhanyou]

My impression of the Japanese market is they don't buy very much hardware at all until the game they want comes out, at which point they proceed to buy a metric fucktonne of the stuff. Is that an accurate assessment? If so, rather than dead in the water, might the PS4 be a late bloomer, with games like Bloodborne, Dragon's Quest, and Street Fighter yet to launch? Has there been anything the JP market "should've" pounced on, but didn't?

Its pretty anecdotal, but based on the many Japanese forums i visit, there's quite a bit of noise going on about the many games coming out this year such as Bloodborne, Persona, and even many of the western games like Batman.

Recently though, there's been a pretty common complaint that Tales of Zestiria isn't on PS4 even though the PS3 edition is imminent. The argument is that Namco Bandai is hesitant because the base of PS4 is low in Japan, but they(namco) refuse to bolster the base themselves by putting the game on PS4. A chicken and egg scenario

 

[kyser73]

My gut feeling says "absolutely not".

A VR helmet sounds incredibly not casual. People didn't even want to wear 3d glasses at home.

You mean like the Gear VR from Samsung where you wear a helmet with a phone slid into the screen area?

I suppose they're going for the hardcore mobile crowd...

 

[Hidden One]

Need a Shu and Cerny photoshop on this

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Sony has fought and won this generation, but they might as well keep the foot on the metal all throughout the start of the next one.

Playstation is one of the few divisions at Sony which are a bright spot. They have to go as hard as they can on Playstation to carry the rest of the company at this point, there is no other option.

 

[jryi]

What I am saying is that the US market is big enough for the Xbox to still ship quite a number per year.

I am sure that MS can run a profitable business with Xbox in US alone, and many other companies would be excited to have that kind of a cash cow. But Microsoft has better cash cows, and even if their gross income could be vast, there must be quite a lot of organizational overhead (especially abroad) that cuts into their margins.

So the problem is not that they couldn't get a decent ROI with Xbox business. The problem is that they could get a much better ROI by investing somewhere else. (Or, barring that, giving the money to shareholders.)

 

[GribbleGrunger]

snip

I really feel stupid now questioning you about the 'ratios'! I've read all of your posts and you really know your stuff ...

... Sidles off quietly.

 

[kyser73]

Day1!!!!!!

All over your face?

 

[IndoAssassin]

I predict that all predictions made in this thread upto this point will be wrong including this one I just made.

 

[serversurfer]

I think what they are waiting for is a proper (or a major) JRPG. That and maybe Gran Turismo.

When does DQ launch? Wasn't there an LE console they sold at Christmas that included a pre-order for the game? Do we have any idea how that's been selling? Possibly not very well, if JP gamers do indeed have the, "What's the point if the game's not out?" attitude I ascribe to them.

Its pretty anecdotal, but based on the many Japanese forums i visit, there's quite a bit of noise going on about the many games coming out this year such as Bloodborne, Persona, and even many of the western games like Batman.

Oh, really? Then I'd say that bodes fairly well.

Recently though, there's been a pretty common complaint that Tales of Zestiria isn't on PS4 even though the PS3 edition is imminent. The argument is that Namco Bandai is hesitant because the base of PS4 is low in Japan, but they(namco) refuse to bolster the base themselves by putting the game on PS4. A chicken and egg scenario

That bodes even better I'd say. People are getting excited about the big party, and annoyed that their friends are showing up late

Spoiler

r than they decided to show up themselves

.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

When does DQ launch? Wasn't there an LE console they sold at Christmas that included a pre-order for the game? Do we have any idea how that's been selling? Possibly not very well, if JP gamers do indeed have the, "What's the point if the game's not out?" attitude I ascribe to them.

I have no idea. DQ isn't a series that I like even though I primarily play JRPGs.

 

[ZhugeEX]

My impression of the Japanese market is they don't buy very much hardware at all until the game they want comes out, at which point they proceed to buy a metric fucktonne of the stuff. Is that an accurate assessment? If so, rather than dead in the water, might the PS4 be a late bloomer, with games like Bloodborne, Dragon's Quest, and Street Fighter yet to launch? Has there been anything the JP market "should've" pounced on, but didn't?

Well it's a bit of both. Yes sales will increase for PS4 once the games are out, but yes the console market is... well not great in Japan. Lets put it this way, PS2 hit 22m, PS3 hit 10m and PS4 is at 1m. Yes sales will grow but don't expect PS3 LTD sales and certainly don't expect PS2 LTD sales for Japan.

As I said, it's emerging markets and Europe that are filling in the lost Japan sales at the moment.

Sure, I'll buy that, but that's where you lose me. So, we're saying 4M in the US and another 1M in the UK. Seem fair? Let's also be generous and assume they didn't go in to 2014 overstocked. Then 5M sales means 5M shipments, right? We're replenishing the channel rather than filling it, yes? That leave us 2.8M units shy of your 2014 estimate, and about 5M shy of your initial prediction for 2015. Obviously, ROTW is gonna order some this year, but FIVE MILLION UNITS? Da fuq? =/

My prediction for 2015 is that Xbox One will sell through about the same or more than it did in 2014. Without actual numbers we can only guess what that is. But ignore my post back on page 60 or whatever. I'll revise my prediction for everything once i see data at the end of this month from MS/Sony.

All in all though, I do expect the PS4 to be easily over 35m sold in, perhaps even 40m at a stretch. Xbox One I expect to be around 20m sold in. Wii U around 14m sold in.

I am sure that MS can run a profitable business with Xbox in US alone, and many other companies would be excited to have that kind of a cash cow. But Microsoft has better cash cows, and even if their gross income could be vast, there must be quite a lot of organizational overhead (especially abroad) that cuts into their margins.

So the problem is not that they couldn't get a decent ROI with Xbox business. The problem is that they could get a much better ROI by investing somewhere else. (Or, barring that, giving the money to shareholders.)

True. But I don't see Microsoft dropping the Xbox One anytime soon. It's still part of their overall plans even if it isn't doing well. Look at the Surface tablet for example, no one bought the gen 1 yet here we are at gen 3.

I really feel stupid now questioning you about the 'ratios'! I've read all of your posts and you really know your stuff ...

... Sidles off quietly.

It's just predictions tbh.

I'm probably going to be wrong haha.

But I try to base my posts on all official information we have/

 

[serversurfer]

Well it's a bit of both. Yes sales will increase for PS4 once the games are out, but yes the console market is... well not great in Japan. Lets put it this way, PS2 hit 22m, PS3 hit 10m and PS4 is at 1m. Yes sales will grow but don't expect PS3 LTD sales and certainly don't expect PS2 LTD sales for Japan.

Well, yeah. I'm just wondering if that's because they don't have any software yet. Guess we'll see.

My prediction for 2015 is that Xbox One will sell through about the same or more than it did in 2014.

Oh, sold through? Sure, that makes more sense. I thought you were talking about maintaining their shipments.

All in all though, I do expect the PS4 to be easily over 35m sold in, perhaps even 40m at a stretch. Xbox One I expect to be around 20m sold in. Wii U around 14m sold in.

Err, doesn't that bring us right back to ROTW ordering like 3-4M units this year? If you're expecting 5M shipped and sold through the US and UK this year, how do they get to 20M from there? Are they launching on Mote Prime this summer, and I missed it? =/

But I try to base my posts on all official information we have/

Maybe you have more information than I do. Is the XBone "big in Japan"? Well, no, it actually isn't. You seem to see them shipping millions to ROTW this year, but can you show me where you're seeing that? Who's gonna place those orders?

 

[ZhugeEX]

Err, doesn't that bring us right back to ROTW ordering like 3-4M units this year? If you're expecting 5M shipped and sold through the US and UK this year, how do they get to 20M from there? Are they launching on Mote Prime this summer, and I missed it? =/


Maybe you have more information than I do. Is the XBone "big in Japan"? Well, no, it actually isn't. You seem to see them shipping millions to ROTW this year, but can you show me where you're seeing that? Who's gonna place those orders?

I'm not expecting exactly 5m shipped and sold in the US/UK. I'm expecting more than that. I'm just saying 5m is the baseline sell through that we saw this year from US/UK. I've always said I expect slightly more. Sorry If I didn't make that clear.

Overall I expect sales to grow in all markets, especially as I see an official price drop happening this year.

(Also I'm basing the 20m on more than 11m (towards 12m) having been sold in to date. If we get official figures as less than 11m shipped, if we even get figures, then that's when I revise my prediction.

35m+ for PS4 is based on natural results, almost 40m would be due to big price drop if it happens in Q3. Wii U.... well is Wii U....

 

[androvsky]

Err, doesn't that bring us right back to ROTW ordering like 3-4M units this year? If you're expecting 5M shipped and sold through the US and UK this year, how do they get to 20M from there? Are they launching on Mote Prime this summer, and I missed it? =/

We all know Mote Prime is N64 land.

 

[Elandyll]

Well, yeah. I'm just wondering if that's because they don't have any software yet. Guess we'll see.
...

Looks like February will be the big test for the PS4 in Japan this year (listing the games I think would do the most for PS4 sales, not an exhaustive list)

Feb 5th: Dragon Ball Xenoverse
Feb 19th: DOA 5 Last Round & God Eater 2 Rage Burst
Feb 20th: The Order 1886 (not sure how much they like Werewolves in Japan )

and

Feb 26th: Dragon Quest Heroes

After that it's March 19th (FF Type 0-HD) and 26th (Bloodborne & Disgaea 5).

 

[ZhugeEX]

Looks like February will be the big test for the PS4 in Japan this year (listing the games I think would do the most for PS4 sales, not an exhaustive list)

Feb 5th: Dragon Ball Xenoverse
Feb 19th: DOA 5 Last Round & God Eater 2 Rage Burst
Feb 20th: The Order 1886 (not sure how much they like Werewolves in Japan )

and

Feb 26th: Dragon Quest Heroes

After that it's March 19th (FF Type 0-HD) and 26th (Bloodborne & Disgaea 5).

Dragon Quest Heroes is tracking to be a big seller.... but it looks like it may sell more on PS3. A worrying trend that Koei have been seeing on a lot of their games and looks like SE may see the same here.

Unlike in the west where PS4 version will outsell PS3 version.

 

[serversurfer]

I'm not expecting exactly 5m shipped and sold in the US/UK. I'm expecting more than that. I'm just saying 5m is the baseline sell through that we saw this year from US/UK. I've always said I expect slightly more. Sorry If I didn't make that clear.

Overall I expect sales to grow in all markets, especially as I see an official price drop happening this year.

(Also I'm basing the 20m on more than 11m (towards 12m) having been sold in to date. If we get official figures as less than 11m shipped, if we even get figures, then that's when I revise my prediction.

35m+ for PS4 is based on natural results, almost 40m would be due to big price drop if it happens in Q3. Wii U.... well is Wii U....

Well, right on. I just wish I could understand what you're seeing that I'm not. I feel like I explain why 7M+ shipped in 2015 is unlikely &#8212; especially if they're already close to 12M &#8212; but all I get from you is, "Nah, I'm pretty sure it'll be around 10M." =/

 

[KillerMan91]

And this is with PS4 getting ~4M less in Japan. Incredible.

Not to mention that that shipment number will be probably closer to 7 million instead of 6 million. It's not that unsual for popular console to have 1.5-2 million consoles in a channel after a holiday season.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Well, right on. I just wish I could understand what you're seeing that I'm not. I feel like I explain why 7M+ shipped in 2015 is unlikely &#8212; especially if they're already close to 12M &#8212; but all I get from you is, "Nah, I'm pretty sure it'll be around 10M." =/

Because I'm basing this on a price cut happening next year.

Sorry If I'm being vague but I don't see the Xbox One doing so poorly next year, 2016 and onwards maybe, but I do see the Xbox One growing in 2015 at least.

 

[RedAssedApe]

one of these japanese companies should try releasing one of their titles on ps4 first even if they are putting out ps3 versions.

 

[serversurfer]

Because I'm basing this on a price cut happening next year.

Sorry If I'm being vague but I don't see the Xbox One doing so poorly next year, 2016 and onwards maybe, but I do see the Xbox One growing in 2015 at least.

Well, they already cut the price in 2014. That's how they were able to move as many as they did. Duplicating the cut seems like it would duplicate their results, not improve them. =/

Are you expecting Sony to stay at $400? Until when?

 

[Elandyll]

one of these japanese companies should try releasing one of their titles on ps4 first even if they are putting out ps3 versions.

Won't Disgaea 5 and Bloodborne be the first Japan- produced big retail releases exclusive to PS4?

Hopefully they are quite successful and push other dev/ publishers to follow suit. The problem right now (as for any beginning of a new gen) is the ratio differential between PS3 install base (10m) and PS4 base (1m).

 

[Piggus]

Well, they already cut the price in 2014.

Eh, sort of. They cut the price by cutting out a key differentiating (but costly) peripheral, offering a system that's bulkier and less powerful than the PS4 for the same amount of money. It's not surprising that they had to get extremely aggressive and likely take a loss on each system sold during the holidays, otherwise they were going to get dominated in the US. Bringing the price back up to $400 is going to result in a bloodbath until they drop the price back down. But can they afford to?

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

Won't Disgaea 5 and Bloodborne be the first Japan- produced big retail releases exclusive to PS4?

Hopefully they are quite successful and push other dev/ publishers to follow suit. The problem right now (as for any beginning of a new gen) is the ratio differential between PS3 install base (10m) and PS4 base (1m).

I don't think Disgaea is that big if they're only expecting 150k from Japan sales to profit.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Well, they already cut the price in 2014. That's how they were able to move as many as they did. Duplicating the cut seems like it would duplicate their results, not improve them. =/

Are you expecting Sony to stay at $400? Until when?

I'm expecting Microsoft to have the price advantage for some amount of time.

As I said, the USA and UK are still big markets for the Xbox One. And whilst the PS4 will continue to outsell the One, we will see Xbox One sales remain solid in these two regions with ROW picking up the rest.

The PS4 will be on another level to the X1 though, and I do expect to see PS4 to ship around twice as Xbox One does in 2015.

 

[truth411]

I'm expecting Microsoft to have the price advantage for some amount of time.

As I said, the USA and UK are still big markets for the Xbox One. And whilst the PS4 will continue to outsell the One, we will see Xbox One sales remain solid in these two regions with ROW picking up the rest.

The PS4 will be on another level to the X1 though, and I do expect to see PS4 to ship around twice as Xbox One does in 2015.

I'm abit confused, what price advantage?

 

[ZhugeEX]

I'm abit confused, what price advantage?

I'm expecting Microsoft to sell the Xbox One at a lower price than the PS4 during 2015 sometime.

 

[Taker34]

Won't Disgaea 5 and Bloodborne be the first Japan- produced big retail releases exclusive to PS4?

Hopefully they are quite successful and push other dev/ publishers to follow suit. The problem right now (as for any beginning of a new gen) is the ratio differential between PS3 install base (10m) and PS4 base (1m).

On the other hand all devs who support cross gen for too long, eventually dig their own grave. The next gen install base doesn't grow quickly enough while they're stuck on a platform which is irrelevant in the west and will drive them into a corner.

 

[serversurfer]

I'm expecting Microsoft to sell the Xbox One at a lower price than the PS4 during 2015 sometime.

Then I guess that's where we disagree. I won't be surprised if MS pull the trigger first, but I'll be very surprised if they have a significant advantage for a significant amount of time. That ignores everything we know about Sony's standard pricing strategy.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Then I guess that's where we disagree. I won't be surprised if MS pull the trigger first, but I'll be very surprised if they have a significant advantage for a significant amount of time. That ignores everything we know about Sony's standard pricing strategy.

I'm expecting Microsoft to have the price advantage for some amount of time.

Look at the wording I used in the previous posts. "Some amount of time". Means I agree with you that they'll pull the trigger first. But I'm not saying the entire amount of 2015. I'm saying that Xbox One will have a price advantage over the PS4 in 2015 for an unspecified amount of time.

Yes, I'm being vague on purpose.

 

[serversurfer]

Look at the wording I used in the previous posts. "Some amount of time". Means I agree with you that they'll pull the trigger first. But I'm not saying the entire amount of 2015. I'm saying that Xbox One will have a price advantage over the PS4 in 2015 for an unspecified amount of time.

Yes, I'm being vague on purpose.

So you already know what the cuts will be for both sides, and when? Fair enough.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

Then I guess that's where we disagree. I won't be surprised if MS pull the trigger first, but I'll be very surprised if they have a significant advantage for a significant amount of time. That ignores everything we know about Sony's standard pricing strategy.

I assume that Sony will announce a price drop at E3 this year. It is still the largest shouting podium for the video games industry. I would not be surprised if MS also announced a price drop at E3.

 

[ZhugeEX]

So you already know what the cuts will be, and when? Fair enough.

no no no!

Everything I said is a PREDICTION. I've made that clear.

Just I'm being vague with my prediction.

1- I do expect Xbox One to have a price drop in 2015.
2- I don't know how long it'll have the price advantage.
3- Hence why I'm being vague
4- But I do predict X1 will drop the price lower than PS4 at some point in 2015. Similar to the $349 in 2014 we saw from MS.

I'm not going to predict the amount of days Xbox is cheaper haha. That's impossible to know.

 

[spatenfloot]

Because I'm basing this on a price cut happening next year.

Sorry If I'm being vague but I don't see the Xbox One doing so poorly next year, 2016 and onwards maybe, but I do see the Xbox One growing in 2015 at least.

I disagree. I don't see much growth in 2015, if any. Launch is over and outside of US/UK, the Xbone is doing nothing.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I disagree. I don't see much growth in 2015, if any. Launch is over and outside of US/UK, the Xbone is doing nothing.

Guess we have to wait a whole year to find out haha.