Okay, let's play your game.
So, we'll go with three hypotheticals. I'll exclude the 3DS obviously, since it's not about that.
You have PS4 only, PS4/PS3, and PS4/PS3/Wii U. These are the current viable home consoles for Dragon Quest XI. I'd say Wii U only or Xbox, but since you're a bunch of haters...
First:
When is Dragon Quest XI releasing? You have to decide on this. We'll go with late 2016, since it'll be too difficult for you if I make it longer than that, and kind of pointless. Using this, you'll have to first get a gauge on the install bases on the consoles in question.
Now you have some data, so you should be able to get an idea of this. This is obviously important, since you need to know this before you can start making a projection on how well Dragon Quest XI could sell.
Of course, you don't know the release schedules of any upcoming titles on PS3, PS4, or Wii U over the next 17 months, so this'll affect your projection. In the case of PS4, this is quite important since you have FFXV, KH3, DQH2, and also the price cut which are all going to help in various ways, and you don't know when DQXI could hypothetically release between all that. We'll ignore the games, and I'll just tell you to do your best to factor in a price cut since that's going to happen prior to DQXI's release anyway.
Now, you might be thinking, why do I need to do all this when I know it's just going to sell less than it would on 3DS? But this is quite simple, and it has to be done. A cat could probably tell me Dragon Quest XI would sell less on PS4 only than on 3DS, but it wouldn't claim to have an informed opinion about an unannounced game, or what makes business sense, either. And if you're going to start talking about what makes sense, then you need to be able to do at least this much.
Other sales age people do it. There's that dude with the graphs and everything. They obviously put a lot of effort into what they discuss.
Now, in the case of the Wii U, you don't have any Dragon Quest titles that you can use to really make sense of what you could sell with a direct comparison. But you do have Dragon Quest Heroes on PS4. However, there's one issue you have to take into account. It's a spin-off title, and won't reflect exactly how much a mainline title on either of the three consoles could sell. But since I'm sure you're aware of this, you just need to factor in a split, and account for a percentage of error for me. I'm sure there's historical data for you based on sales of remakes, and spin-offs, and you can compare them to mainline releases, and go from there. It's not ideal, but I'm sticking to what you might have available to you. In this instance, if it was me, I wouldn't worry too much about the Wii U being affected by the platform split hurting it, because I don't believe the crossover between the two audiences would be as strong. Not to mention, you can just go to the sales split you saw with DQH, account for the mainline difference you expect, and go from there. DQ is like Fifa in Europe, and there's been plenty of successful DQ titles on the 3DS, and Wii U is going to be owned by a lot of Nintendo fans. It's not difficult.
You do have to account for PS3/PS4 since the split will matter there, and there's going to be crossover.
Now that you've done all this, you should be able to provide me three separate figures for each scenario.
And when you think about it, this is easy really, because this is the bare minimum you should be able to do based on what you have available to you via Media Create. Also, because you've not had to consider any of the following:
- Potential financial incentives
- Any assisted marketing
- Any international outlook at all
- The creative vision (because who gives a shit what they think)
- Why Dragon Quest Heroes probably exists
- Production budget, ROI
- Future plans for the title
And basically, all of the actual hard stuff when it comes to determining what makes business sense. In this instance, Dragon Quest Heroes exists for a very specific purpose, but you don't even have to worry about how successful that title was, it's ROI, and what that ultimately meant for all the parties involved. Forget DQH2 which is going to cost less, and do pretty well too.
I'll just point out one thing though. You think a Dragon Quest XI not releasing on the 3DS would mean the lowest series sales in franchise history. I'm not saying it's not releasing on the 3DS, but I'm not sure you realise just what the sales figures for some of the early title's original releases were when you don't take into account remakes etc. I've seen the figures, and although I may not have them in front of me, I'm pretty comfortable saying that in each of these three scenarios, even if the title was PS4 alone, that would not happen. So you're starting off pretty badly there.
Now consider that it might just end up releasing on 3DS for all you know, and you realise why I'm just laughing.
Because you know nothing, and that's why I find it hilarious to see a dozen posts worrying about what makes business sense when no one seems to have even made any effort, aside from "it would sell less than if it was on the 3DS".
I legit can't stop laughing. This is probably the best thread I've been in all year. Easily. I can feel the hurt from you, and I don't even know why, but it's there.