vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I just want to say thank you Verendus for that wonderful post.
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Yuji Horii: Dragon Quest 11 will be an offline game, for home consoles
- Thread starter Aeana
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Some Nobody
Junior Member
Verendus is out here handing out L's like he's on Wheel of Fortune, and people just keep scooping them up. Shame.
You'd think people would've picked up by now that he's pretty high up in Sony. If he's not lying (no reason to believe he is), his past posts have made that obvious. If anyone has the data, it's probably him.
You'd think people would've picked up by now that he's pretty high up in Sony. If he's not lying (no reason to believe he is), his past posts have made that obvious. If anyone has the data, it's probably him.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Because that's what they were discussing?
How would a MH Musou even work?
An active userbase for PSP didn't help the Vita.
It would play like every other Musou game ever made.
What discussion? There wasn't any discussion between Verendus and Pennywise.
Verendus was just outlining how sales aren't the only factor when it comes to these decisions.
What discussion? Verendus was just laughing at all the concern for Square's financial well being in this thread.
uncredited male
Member
I just had a weird thought of DQXI eventually showing up on Steam.
If this gets released to multiplatform consoles then I'm sure it will.
??Dedicated handhelds in Japan are on track to sell less than half of what they sold last gen.
And by concern, you mean the concern from some that Nintendo might not be getting a Dragon Quest at all.
I mean, you don't want to know where consoles are tracking then...
Because what you're doing is needlessly handicapping DQ's potential on the Wii U right away by drawing this comparison. Look at the numbers you're citing. The breakdown of those sales should probably tell you why I didn't even bother.sörine;171247108 said:
You said that Dragon Quest X sold more than Dragon Quest Heroes. Okay, that's a true statement. But it's meaningless, because the bulk of those unit sales comes from the Wii, not the Wii U. A very different platform. So, in a scenario where I'm asking someone to think about sales on the Wii U, why would I give them a faulty premise to work with? Unless I'm intentionally being a prat I guess. Not to mention, there is a significant difference in the audience you can grab with an offline game, and an online game. Or think of it another way if it's easier. If DQH had been released on the Wii U rather than PS3/PS4, it'd do much better than DQX has on the Wii U. I'm pretty confident about that. So it's better for me to tell that person to just use the DQH numbers since it's a better comparison for him to work with.
I mean, the end result is going to be flawed anyway since he's missing a lot of important information, but it helps nonetheless.
I just jumped to the conclusion that you're an idiot to be honest.
Well, my entire assumption is that it'll be a PS4 only game so that's largely what I'm focusing on, but I'll touch on potential cross-platform release as well.
I'm assuming Dragon Quest XI to be released next year to line up with the series 30th anniversay.
Probably not May necessarily, but probably a Fall release. I expect Dragon Quest Heroes II early on the year to lead it off. I expect a more immediate release than Dragon Quest IX, because that was revealed very early and relatively near Dragon Quest VIII's release (about 2 years). It's been 6 years since the release of Dragon Quest IX and 3 since X. Given all the recent comments and the upcoming Jump announcements, we'll probably know about the game very soon.
In regards to hardware sales, let's look at how the system has sold so far. It's done 1.55.million since its release last year, still tracking below Wii U and Dreamcast. If we look at PS3's best year, we'll see that it was 2009, when Final Fantasy XIII came out. 2009 also saw the release of Resident Evil 5, Tales of Vesperia, Yakuza 3, among other notable titles, and it got a price cut. It achieved 1.7 million that year. Though Dragon Quest is bigger than any of those titles, it is unlikely sales will exceed that figure, given the current state of the hardware. So in all likelihood, we're looking at less than 3.5 million for PS4. PS3 was at 4.28 million the week Final Fantasy XIII hit.
Since there's no direct Dragon Quest comparison, I will once again be looking at Final Fantasy XIII. During its debut, it sold 1.5 million to those 4.28 million users and ended up at less than 2 million. We see its attach rate during its debut was around 35%.
It's definitely more difficult to pull a general estimate based on what we have, due to the unique position of this game. As others have said, prior to this gen, Dragon Quest releases have been on the most popular hardware, so attach rate comparisons with those is more difficult, with those platforms having much lower attach rates due to high hardware volume. PS4 is performing notably closer to PS3 (albeit much weaker), thus comparisons with it are the best we can look at.
Dragon Quest is a much bigger franchise than Final Fantasy, but it's smaller than Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and arguably Monster Hunter. Possibly Yokai Watch as well. Those are all 3DS of course, but I wanted to bring those up to point out that in any scenario, even on 3DS, Dragon Quest XI would likely see a decline over Dragon Quest IX. Given the performances of those bigger titles, were it a 3DS, I could see a total of maybe 3.5 million, similar to Dragon Quest VIII.
In any case, back to PS4. Let's assume in the best case scenario, it hits around 3.5 million. Dragon Quest has typically outsold Final Fantasy games, but on Playstation, bit notably so. Dragon Quest VIII was at 3.7 million vs Final Fantasy X's 3 million, while Dragon Quest VII was at 3.8 million vs Final Fantasy VIII's 3.5 million (Final Fantasy VII was higher than both with rereleases). It's safe to assume attach rate at launch will be similar to Final Fantasy XIII's probably a bit higher, so based on all the assumptions, I would throw out a similar 1.3 - 1.4 million debut on PS4.
Dragon Quest games do have better legs than Final Fantasy, so I see it maxing out around 2.4 - 2.6 million.
Now let's look at cross-platform releases. This wasn't really a thing prior to this gen, so I'm gonna be looking at the PS3/4 games. I'll be comparing Yakuza Ishin, 0, and Dragon Quest Heroes. Yakuza Ishin sold 385k (255k PS3, 130k PS4), 0 did 356k (229k PS3, 127k PS4). It should be noted Ishin was up on Kenzan's 270k, but 0 was down compared to the mainline games. Dragon Quest Heroes did 802k (460k PS3, 342k PS4). In these cases we see about a 3/2 split in favor of PS3. I see this changing by next year, tipping towards PS4, or possibly 1:1.
Now, I do believe a multiplatform release would increase total sales, but not too substantially. I'm basing this on the performance of these and other multiplatform games in comparison to single platform games. I already noted that Ishin was up vs Kenzan, but 0 was down compared to other mainline games. However, as a whole, for the franchise, these games did not break any records, selling about in line with the franchise, which is suffering from some fatigue. There's no direct comparison for Dragon Quest Heroes, but I believe looking at One Piece Pirate Warriors is appropriate, as it is a similarly sized franchise in Japan (as I was told by Duckroll). One Piece Pirate Warriors also saw a similar total, at about 830k. Why look at the original Pirate Warriors as opposed to the more recent games? Because there are many spinoff Musou titles, each with somewhat similar trajectories, with the initial game doing big numbers, but sequels seeing declines. This will be a better comparison when Heroes 2 comes out.
Ok based on this, and going back to Final Fantasy XIII, I will assume a total increase to say 2.7 - 2.9 million, with the PS4 version being favored, or similar sales. I see an increase, because of the wider reach of PS3, and while PS4 is largely a similar audience, it has also attracted different types of consumers as well. And potential upgrades down the line. Persona 5 will help us form a better picture as well (though it's still niche in comparison).
I do not see a Wii U release, because of likely funding from Sony, and Square Enix's reluctance to support the platform. I believe Dragon Quest X was a unique case due to likely funding from Nintendo.
Now, I can't really say what goes on to potential financing from Sony, but additional marketing is not really necessary for this franchise in Japan. Again, as others have mentioned before, Dragon Quest got large marketing campaigns for VIII and IX on the 2 most popular platforms prior to this gen, and though they did well, they were not too substantial. And yes, like I said, Mr. Horii's vision is what matters the most and is what is steering the project to PS4.
Though, yes, I did ignore the fact that the very first games on NES would likely be lower based on my assumptions.
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
You know you really lose all respect people may have for you when you go around throwing insults at someone because they have a differing opinion than you.
And you think the combined sales of the PS4, Wii u and Xbox one are going to sell as much as the ps3 sold in japan?
i don't understand. are you trying to make a case for dqxi on the wii u?
if i were to try and decipher your posts, you sound like someone who knows the real deal behind the result - maybe not the planning, but what is actually happening. following that, there should be specific reasons why dqh hit the ps3 and ps4 and not wii u. the ps3/ps4 will be getting dqxi with s-e setting up the fanbase there and using assets they're creating to make money on the project before it's out. a timeline of the project might show it originally in development for ps3, with ps4 coming into the picture a bit later, but work on the ps3 version not ready to be scrapped.
continued support of the 3ds is basically token support by now, since s-e can make money off the franchise to help support a larger endeavor. support of the wii u version kind of had to happen as the wii died but they had to keep their weird mmo going with expansion packs and the audience transferred over more easily than they might have to a sony console that was dying (ps3) or one that wasn't started yet (ps4). thus, the wii u getting dqx doesn't really matter as it was a game made out of necessity (when the wii version was made more out of some business deal, probably), since square enix is clearly not putting any support behind the series on the machine outside of that game.
Hades Hotgun
Banned
To me it seemed not much different from an insult when the fellow inferred that Verendus was both a liar, "you probably won't admit it" and also a fool "you jumped to the conclusion... I think that says a lot."
Did that stuff not come across to you as insulting?
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not in the business of inferring things, so why don't you ask the poster.
On the other hand I don't need to infer calling someone an idiot as an insult, it is one plain as day.
Father_Brain
Banned
Well, that speaks for itself, really. Nothing much to add to that, except that it has nothing whatsoever to do with me supposedly being "hurt" and having an "axe to grind."
Primethius
Banned
I'm honestly a bit lost.
At this point, given what Verendus has posted, DQXI will be on PS4 at least.
What is even the debate? That it's not going to be or that it's not a wise choice?
At this point, given what Verendus has posted, DQXI will be on PS4 at least.
What is even the debate? That it's not going to be or that it's not a wise choice?
Father_Brain
Banned
Well, since Verendus clearly thought I had some sort of agenda, and since he refuses to specify exactly what that is/was... if you want to suggest alternative interpretations, be my guest. He certainly had ample opportunity to challenge my own, and chose not to. I can only speculate as to why.
No. To reiterate:
Gamers in Japan are abandoning handhelds as well. As I mentioned earlier, the worldwide market favors consoles and PC, handhelds have dropped off even worse outside of Japan. So if the goal is to re-establish the franchise than they have a better chance on consoles.
I'm honestly impressed you took the effort to respond in this way. You outlined what you think, and why. It made me smile, no lie.
Bookmarked your post. I'll gift you a Horii signed copy of DQXI if your projection is on point for DQXI. 2.4-2.6 million for a single platform, or 2.7-2.9 million for multiple platforms. Original release and domestic sales number as per your post. Odds are in my favour, but if you do happen to be right, then I'll definitely honour it. You can PM me if I forget.
Hypothetically.
Why?! Am I not allowed to do that?! At least, it's not the Vita.
theprodigy
Member
there's nothing "stealthy" about it
Hades Hotgun
Banned
Indeed, that seems very true.
well if we're just looking at japan, there's probably a stronger case for vita than wii u or ps4.
It should have been obvious that the context of my reply deals with the Japanese market. Historically speaking DQ has never ever been a big seller in the West. I think the highest any single DQ game has shipped in the west is over 1 million units So it doesn't matter if the decline of handheld game devices is more severe in the west considering the overall majority of DQ sales are in Japan.
Having many of the big PSP games in Japan is the only reason Vita has lasted as long as it did over there.
Not an entirely sure what that has to do with a system having an active userbase.
If a successor is launched while there's still an active userbase the platform holder can try to migrate that audience over.
Well duh.
Pennywise83
Banned
I do think DQXI will be at least on PS4. I just don't think it's the smartest decision business-wise. I explained why but I guess we should wait the cold shower DQH's Western sales will be to realize that (but of course SQEX don't care about sales when they can chase Sony's dream of being relevant again in Japan and Horii's dream of doing his dreamed game - after all, he didn't actually want to develop all of his previous DQ, it was just forced to).
Some Nobody
Junior Member
Seriously. If you could make good on this, that would be utterly ridiculous. It legit makes me wonder who tf you are.
Damn man, this is a pretty passive aggressive post. Does the very idea of a Dragon Quest game skipping out on a Nintendo handheld make you angry for some reason?
You made like ten posts repeating the same thing, and then you come back with this? I honestly want to post that gif again, because I just laughed.
Why are you so dramatic?
Oh, don't worry.
There's like a 1% chance he's right so it's an empty gesture anyway.
Pennywise83
Banned
No. I perfectly played DQVIII on PS2, and I will soon own a PS4. I rather prefer a portable DQ because of my gaming habits but the debate was over something else. Of course thee are other aspects SQEX is looking at when doing the decision where to put a mainline DQ, such as agreements with Sony and the hope of being relevant in the West with this IP; maybe SQEX really think the home console market will actually be alive in a few years in Japan, and that is why DQ will be released on PS4. Given market signals, I don't think it's the best business decision but after all it's just the opinion of an uninformed person.
Jarod McChicken
Member
With any luck, I would bet all that nonsense "bad business decision" argument will evaporate suddenly from the moment we discover the first trailer of a beautiful PS4 Dragon Quest XI with the iconic Sugiyama's main theme. Man, I want to be that day.
if it's ps3/ps4, with the goal of aiming for the largely-hardcore based ps3 userbase and the growing but small ps4 userbase, i don't think it's a bad business decision. they can get the sales needed in japan and the west.
that said, dragon quest builders should pretty much cement it for anyone, should it not?
Hey that's a way more reasonable post than what you were saying earlier.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Unless you know what SQEX's intentions are with DQXI are then I don't think you or anyone else are in a position to say it's a bad business decision.
I keep seeing you all say that it won't be able to reach DQIX sales if it's not on 3DS, but I doubt it can reach DQIX sales on 3DS either and it's foolish to assume it would.
3DS would guarantee more sales sure, but at the end of the day that's not always the be all and end all of what platform a game ships on. If Square Enix wants to attempt to inject some life into the Japanese console market then 3DS is a 'bad business decision' too.
Having worked in the industry myself at a certain platform holder, I can tell you now that sales are important but growth potential of hardware or even IP (in this case in the west) are almost equally as important and often one of the main pillars behind a game being made rather than maximising immediate sales.
You wouldn't be seeing half the games that are made today if the only business objective was 'moar sales'.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
What's that? Typo?
Sparrowhawk
Member
I disagree
WiiU moves high qualité software prety easily. More easily than any Sony system has in the past 12 years bar the psp
But anyway, releasing a main Line DQ on a Sony system when not a single one has been released for over 12 years is some strange logic when a 3DS version would handily outsell it worldwide while beeing infinitely cheaper to make.
with dqh, dqh ii, and dqb, it looks like there's a new home for it, to be honest. the 3ds has dq viii coming up and that's about it. really, any of those three aforementioned games could have come out for a nintendo platform, but it didn't happen. probably for a reason.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Crazy! I haven't played Minecraft yet so this might give me the extra nudge to experience that.
Dragon Quest Heroes, Dragon Quest Builders, it seems SE is slowly building a content pipeline to incentivize Dragon Quest users to perhaps own a PS4 in the future (Playstation ecosystem).
If we're talking about games that both already released and that are coming, while PS4/PS3 got Dragon Quest Heroes, 3DS got Theatrhythm
Q, and it's going to get DQVIII at the end of August. 3DS will probably get the next Dragon Quest Monsters too.Palette Swap
Member
Yeah, with DQVIIIr, I thought SE were hedging their bets by having different parts of the franchise everywhere (3DS, mobile and PS systems) but it's really starting to look like a push towards PS systems.
It's obviously all perception but that looks even more like a trend that should culminate with DQXI on (at least) PS3/4.
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