spatenfloot
Member
I expect Sony to stick to bundles instead of cutting the price, at least until summer or fall.
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Sony announces 18.5 million PlayStation 4 consoles sold WW
- Thread starter Krakn3Dfx
- Start date
Zeuanimals
Member
It did cost a whole $150 less (among other perks). Imagine what the PS4 would've done at that price... I don't even want to imagine the stampedes in Germany.
Yeah, but it was also supply constrained for almost two years.
The Artisan
Member
there's something else I want to ask you. according to this guy the lead in the U.S is be only 500k, and my response to that was... so even after leading hardware sales for 9+ months in the states, sony is already that close to losing the lead to mS? that either means the monthly sales gaps weren't huge, or the xbone sold PHENOMENALLY better than the Ps4 the last 2 months.
Nightengale
Member
In total sales for November and December, yes.
By ratio, it was 10:7 for November and 6:5 for December.
XB1 had an amazing holiday. But that doesn't mean Sony had a bad one.
If Sony had dropped the price they would not have sold more. PS4 sold out in Europe and if the retail insiders here are correct, only minimal stock is left in the US. Plus, Microsoft just learned that raising the price again after temporarily lowering it doesn't go well with shoppers.
Samsung recently announced the production start of 8 Gbit GDDR5 chips, which would allow Sony to produce PS4s with memory chips on only one side of the PCB. This could lead to the introduction of a lower cost PS4 'slim'.
My expectation is that the PS4 TLoU/DC/... bundles will continue to sell for $399 until the 'slim' production ramps up, which will be introduced at ~$349 with no game.
Samsung recently announced the production start of 8 Gbit GDDR5 chips, which would allow Sony to produce PS4s with memory chips on only one side of the PCB. This could lead to the introduction of a lower cost PS4 'slim'.
My expectation is that the PS4 TLoU/DC/... bundles will continue to sell for $399 until the 'slim' production ramps up, which will be introduced at ~$349 with no game.
The Artisan
Member
of course yes, but what does that mean for sales thus far for the two consoles? a lead by sony but now by a very reduced margin?
serversurfer
Member
The latter, sorta.
At the end of 2013, Sony's US lead was less than 200k, and closer to 100k, I think. By October, that lead had grown to about 1M units. Microsoft's big sale gave them a 400k advantage in November (1.2M/800k), closing the gap to about 600k, which was certainly huge for them. If the gap is now at 500k, that would indicate a 100k lead for MS in December, which is decidedly less huge.
So yeah, MS made up fairly significant ground in the final two months, but that doesn't really put them in position to overtake Sony in the near future, even at $350, simply because a comparatively low volume of units are sold during these months. Plus, Sony have a lot of fairly big games coming out in the next few months, while MS don't seem to have much going on until the fall. Anyway, "off-season" sales are usually in the 200k range; sometimes a bit more, and often less. Therefore, there's really no opportunity for MS to outsell Sony by 400k in a single month. That opportunity won't come around again until Christmas.
Also, if the monthly gap really did shrink from 400k to 100k Nov->Dec, that would seem to indicate that XB3 sales had already started to lose momentum, despite the continued discounts. That would line up with some of the retail anecdotes we heard of heavy stocks of XB3 going in to the new year, though the heavy stocks may indicate stuffing rather than stalled demand; likely a combination of both, I'd guess. The other possibility would be that Sony gained some momentum, but apart from some scattered deals here and there, they didn't really seem to do much with would increase their demand in any significant way. Yes, their sales increased Nov->Dec, but that's fairly typical. My understanding is that XB3 sales were comparatively flat month over month, which again would seem to indicate they weren't really able to sustain that initial demand throughout the holiday.
All of that said, I'm not really sure what the actual NPD results were — either for Nov or Dec — so this analysis is based entirely on the claimed 500k gap. If anyone wants to PM me the actual numbers, that would be lovely. <3
Edit: Oh, and regarding the monthly gaps through October, PS4 was outselling XB3 like 3:2 to 2:1. But it still took 10 months to add 800k-900k to their lead. That's what I meant by MS not really being poised to take over. Even if they outsell Sony 2:1 every month, it'll still be several months before they actually close the LTD gap.
Welfare
Member
Gap in November was ~700k. December gap decreased by ~200k to equal a total gap of ~500k.
travisbickle
Member
US was always going to be close. MS fucked up their launch but they didn't fuck it up enough to put off the 35 million + that bought a 360.
serversurfer
Member
Oh, so MS only led by 300k in November? Or did Sony begin the month with a 1.1M lead?
Anyone wanna give me the actual numbers? It would make discussing this stuff a lot easier.
The Artisan
Member
But if sony was leading for basically a year, it's quite an impressive feat for mS to shrink their lead down to a slim margin in 2 months.
500k is slim after only 1yr on the market? What do you think the margin was between the 2 consoles at the end of October?
MS dropped the RRP/MSRP to $349 bundled with s/ware and some retailers also stacked a $50 store voucher on that, bringing the 'effective' cost as low as $299 (IIRC there was some place that added something else that meant the 'effective' cost was as low as $279).
Sony bundled at $399.
There isn't a single scenario where a product that has a value proposition that is up to $120 better than its competitor doesn't sell - and this was reflected in the 400K+ Xbone sales in November, and the ~225k+ in December.
PS4 was 1.2mn in front going into the holiday, and came out 500k in front afterwards, without a price cut.
Poimandres
Member
I think Microsoft deserve credit for being very aggressive with deals etc in November/December. They more than halved Sonys lead (1200K to 500K) in two months, but the question is can they keep eating at the lead or will the lead grow again now that the holiday boost has worn off? Everything so far seems to suggest the PS4 will take January (2 weeks of the Xbone being $400, Amazon charts).
Welfare
Member
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Which is why they'd be beyond insane to drop the price.
The Artisan
Member
I can't believe I've gone almost half an hour into crapgamer's video about Sony's 18.5 million Ps4s sold being off in numbers. every single one of them find it so hard to believe that sony could sell so much in such a small amount of time.
but the thing is... why would Sony lie about their numbers? Lying about anything always comes back to get you.
but the thing is... why would Sony lie about their numbers? Lying about anything always comes back to get you.
Nightengale
Member
999 out of 1000 times, publicly traded companies do not lie about sales.
Ad for what fanboy delude themselves into thinking, whatever.
The Artisan
Member
And I definitely think this is one of those 999 times. It doesn't make sense for it ever not to be.
But the problem is those people are going to brainwash others into believe their goddamn conspiracy theory.
Please, you really think Sony wants to be sued for this? C'mon.
geordiemp
Member
Could send Kaz to Jail for misleading their stock and share holders.
Why not, seems reasonable to win the console warz....wait....
That's why publically traded companies on stock exchanges legally have to give exact numbers, so you get Xbox family sold to retail and 1,000,000 grenades thrown in MCC.
Alex_Mexico
Member
What's the PS4 aproximated advantage over the X1 globally? What's the latest global sales number we have for the X1?
Do you want guesstimates or actually published numbers?
Latest reliable number from Microsoft was 5 million shipped after 1Q/14 IIRC. After that there's only guess work. We do know, that it's in the ball park of 10 million some time after mid-November. I think we can safely say that they have shipped that ten million by now.
So what is the actual difference in sold through numbers? I'd wager that it's 9M, plus or minus half a million.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Zekra Dezivad
Member
In an old financial thread (Q3/12) I found this:
I think it's interesting, it seems to suggest a gap of 3/4 millions between shipments and actual sales. I don't know how much we can read into this, but I think that it could give at least an idea of what we can expect from Q4 sales.
Code:
PS3 Retail Sales (*) PS3 Shipments
2011 11.0 14.1
2010 10.5 14.4
(*)EU+US+JAP (Source: Nintendo,NPD,Media Create)I think it's interesting, it seems to suggest a gap of 3/4 millions between shipments and actual sales. I don't know how much we can read into this, but I think that it could give at least an idea of what we can expect from Q4 sales.
John Bender
Banned
Why am I not shocked that you are reading&watching Crapgamers Xbox fanboy nonsense.
This guy is "the joke" on twitter. Hates Sony/Nintendo. Loves Microsoft. Spreading fud/nonsense daily. He's a troll. Nothing more, nothing less.
And you are reading his shit? Seriously?
I would rather listen to someone like Shokio, Boogie2988, or Blackb0nd than someone like ReviewTechUSA, Crapgamer, or MisterXmedia.
At least they know what they're talking about.
Ooooh, glad to know this thread is still around.
Aww, why'd you have to do that? Now the Artisan's gonna google that blog, come back and create a new thread -Is Sony doomed when Microsoft unlocks that second GPU?-
Aww, why'd you have to do that? Now the Artisan's gonna google that blog, come back and create a new thread -Is Sony doomed when Microsoft unlocks that second GPU?-
John Bender
Banned
Exactly.
Crapgamer (he really is "crap") and Misterxmedia are troll/joke characters and should be ignored forever. Especially here, on Neogaf.
NeloAnjelo
Member
Dont ever listen to this guy. There is nothing about hate on that channel, plus the guy makes such racist and homophobic comments. I can't believe people listen to him.
I think nobody takes him seriously any more on GAF, but we should all be thankful to misterxmedia for all the laughs he's been giving to us.
Had to actually go and google this. Found the 4Q and annual results at AMD site. Direct quote from Recent Highlights:
"Strong demand continued for AMD-based game consoles, with Microsoft and Sony having shipped nearly 30 million consoles to-date."
This was dated Jan 20, but I doubt they have the most up-to-date information about console shipments. Still, they might have a pretty decent hunch about the situation until the end of the year.
Nuts.Pistachio_Nuts!
Member
I wonder if that best buy $50 price drop on ps4 bundles on Christmas eve had any effect on their sales. Couldn't be drastic but maybe some bump from last minute shoppers.
Yeah its the 20th but it covers the holiday quarter of sales. Thats what we are debating the 18.5 million Ps4 sales vs. "X" xbox1 sales in the same time frame. They would know the shipments because they provide the chips for both consoles.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Those guys have got the XB1 at around 14m and they seem to forget Europe is a huge market too. It's laughable.
serversurfer
Member
With 18.5M sold, you figure Sony's shipments are likely up around the 19.5M mark, if not a bit higher. With less than 30M combined, that wouldn't leave many more shipments than the 10M that MS pre-announced.
loaf of bread
Member
If Sony was at 18.5 mil at the start of January then They're probably at about 19 mil sold now give or take 100k. Shipped numbers are probably at least 20 mil.
Sony's shipped number will certainly be under 20m. The PS4 has seen unprecedented demand worldwide and therefore has been selling through all the units it sells in to retail.
It's done just as good as the Wii in the same time frame. And whilst I doubt it'll continue to do as well as the Wii it'll maintain a very healthy lead over X1 sales.
The price drop, which I said MS would do first, will allow MS to continue selling well in the US but demand is still poor outside the US. Demand for the PS4 however is worldwide as I mentioned above. Therefore, even with the X1 price advantage, I expect PS4 to outsell X1 this year again by a hefty amount. And yes, I even expect the PS4 to outsell the X1 in the USA.
As I've said before though, Xbox brand isn't exactly dead (like the Wii U) and I do expect it to do well enough in the USA + UK thanks to the price and brand awarness and so I expect that cumulative worldwide shipments will reach ~20m by the end of 2015. Or to say it another way, the X1 will have shipped as many consoles by the end of 2015 that Sony shipped by the end of 2014.
serversurfer
Member
Keep in mind this is basically all as of the end of 2014, shipment-wise, but yeah, Sony's sales quote included 4-5 days in 2015.
What I'm saying is, if Sony's sell-through as of Jan 4th was 18.5M, then it's likely their shipments were in the 19.5M-19.7M range at the end of 2014. AMD says that at the end of 2014, combined shipments of the two console were "nearly 30M." They have the same obligation to provide accurate data as anyone else, right? They can't tell their own shareholders that "nearly 30M" had been shipped if it was really 32M, right?
PS4 stocks were apparently a bit tight in the EU, so their sell in may have been as low as 19.3M, but that wouldn't leave more than 10.6M XB3 at the very most, assuming AMDs numbers are accurate. We'll know more once we see Sony's numbers, but I don't think 19.3M-19.7M PS4s shipped is unreasonable at all.
Huh, I had no idea Sony was leading 2:1. Thought it was closer. That's crazy.
PeregrinSe7en
Member
shows what happens when you think about the gamers first. plus MS anti consumer policies in the beginning.
the gap will only get wider
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/?_encoding=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&linkCode=ur2&tag=vglnkc2775-20
I've been checking the hourly on Amazon almost every day since MS dropped the price back down to $350 and I'm amazed Sony is still ahead.
PS4 is #7 right now with the XB1 at #13. At least MS is doing a lot better than most months last year where the XB1 was never in the top 20 (except for the Titanfall month).
I've been checking the hourly on Amazon almost every day since MS dropped the price back down to $350 and I'm amazed Sony is still ahead.
PS4 is #7 right now with the XB1 at #13. At least MS is doing a lot better than most months last year where the XB1 was never in the top 20 (except for the Titanfall month).
So, Sony sold 18.5 million PlayStation 4 consoles WW to customers as of January 2015.
Sony told us in November, that they SHIPPED to retailers 13.5 million unites WW as of 31th october 2014. Source: http://www.geekwire.com/2014/sony-s...soles-one-year-microsoft-sells-10m-xbox-ones/
lets say, 500k units world wide on shelf (lets be generous!)
18.5 million units - 13.0 million units = 5.5 million units
so sony, sold more than 5.5 million units to customers in november + december alone.
we know that they sold 1,6 million US in november and december combined according to NPD.
more than 4 million units sold to customers in Europe, Asia and South America in november december alone.
Sounds legit.
Sony told us in November, that they SHIPPED to retailers 13.5 million unites WW as of 31th october 2014. Source: http://www.geekwire.com/2014/sony-s...soles-one-year-microsoft-sells-10m-xbox-ones/
lets say, 500k units world wide on shelf (lets be generous!)
18.5 million units - 13.0 million units = 5.5 million units
so sony, sold more than 5.5 million units to customers in november + december alone.
we know that they sold 1,6 million US in november and december combined according to NPD.
more than 4 million units sold to customers in Europe, Asia and South America in november december alone.
Sounds legit.
In all honesty I'm starting to have some doubt. I'm not expected absolutely xbone outsold ps4 in US in December. Maybe the games in coming could change this trend, (ps4 seems to have more imminent exclusive) but still the interest on xbox brand in the americans has been stronger than my expectations.
Just the process of the XB1 leveling out post price drop. Happens after every price reduction. Next two months we'll see where the base line is.
XB360 outsold the PS3 by about 18 million in the USA so the brand is strong. The real trend are where the XB1 sales level out post price drop.
serversurfer
Member
Oh, I don't' think they hit 20M. Well, maybe, but not over. Keep in mind, a lot of those shipped units from Q4 were just being loaded on the boat on the 31st. They weren't sold through by the 4th, that's for sure. I think having roughly 1M units in the channel is reasonable, especially with retail insiders telling us the DCs themselves like to hold about three weeks worth of stock. Add another three weeks on the boat, and that's a lot of stock yet to be put in front of consumers. So I think 19.3M-19.7M shipped through Q4 is a fairly safe bet. Would you agree?
What are your thoughts on AMD's claim of less than 30M combined shipments through 2014?
Triggerhappytel
Member
If they lie about sales numbers they could be sued for misleading investors, so that's not going to happen.
Interesting.
Pretty much confirms the "close to 20m shipped" for PS4, and "at or about 10m shipped" for XB1 (back as of late December).
On other news, here is the current situation internationally on Amazon for January 2015:
Amazon US:
PS4: #8
XB1: #16
WiiU: #52
(Hourly has PS4 #6 and climbing, XB1 #13 and climbing)
Amazon UK:
PS4: #33, #82, #85
WiiU: #62
XB1: #76
(Hourly PS4 #33 & #39 and both climbing, no XB1 or WiiU in top 100)
Amazon FR:
PS4: #17, #66
XB1: #75
WiiU: NA
(Hourly PS4 #53, #76, Wii U #92, no XB1 in top 100)
Amazon DE:
PS4: #25, #28, #83
XB1: NA
WiiU: NA
(Hourly has PS4 #3, #46, no XB1 or WiiU)
Amazon IT:
Hourly, as the site has no yearly bestseller list
PS4: #45
WiiU: #77
XB1: NA
Amazon ES (Spain):
Hourly, as the site as no yearly bestseller list
PS4: #51, #60
WiiU: #79
XB1: NA
Looks like the effect of the price cut has waned... (The XB1 is cheaper than the PS4 in pretty much every market, the smallest difference I've seen being in France where it is only cheaper by about 10 euros).