serversurfer
Member
/nod
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Sony announces 18.5 million PlayStation 4 consoles sold WW
- Thread starter Krakn3Dfx
- Start date
Boombloxer
Member
Your analogy is inaccurate. The profit margin for the PS4 is equally strong in the EU. 399 euros is not 399 dollars. Again, this isn't film, and that margin comes without a great deal of competition elsewhere, not to mention the lion share of game sales for the platform.
The Artisan
Member
Well, that's why I essentially started off with a disclaimer. So you're telling me sony makes full profit on consoles sold anywhere across the globe, that's really good for them.
Aquamarine
Member
not really.
film studios, on average, only recoup 50-55% of domestic box office revenues.
and they don't focus on domestic for the higher % return than international.
Boombloxer
Member
It's also not 399 everywhere. It's in a better position than the PS3, and it will vary according to country, but if you bought a game, that's that.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Yes but there profit margins depends on a few factors.
Like exchange rates , what currency contracts get done in and a few others.
Should be the same for most hardware and i not only talking about consoles.
Well truth is you could say that was the case maybe 15- 25 years ago .
But that all change when the international box office keep on getting bigger and bigger .
On that front, Sony's smart to spread their 1st party releases all year around, instead of just lumping them all in with big 3rd party releases during Q3/Q4 like how Microsoft does.
It gives Sony's IP's (especially new IP's like The Order: 1886 & Bloodborne) a chance to be recognized by most people, because not all big 3rd party releases are going to come abound throughout the whole 12 months each year. Microsoft should consider doing the same.
No better proof of that than the blockbuster movies 'tailored' for international audiences. Iron Man 2 had scenes and new characters made exclusively for the Chinese release.
At least in Finland there are no price cuts. We don't have the same kind of tracking as NPD does in US or Media Create in Japan (you might want to check those threads to keep up-to-date on Japanese sales), but here is one tidbit:
Verkkokauppa.com is the largest consumer electronics retailer in Finland. The most popular Xbox One (link) and PS4 (link) SKUs are priced 394,90 and 399,90, respectively. Do note, that these prices include the value add tax (European for sales tax), which in Finland is 24%.
With the price of euro going down in relation to US dollar, American companies are making less money for sales in Europe. I don't know, what the exchange rate to Japanese yen is, however. With Sony being a Japan based company, that is of interest to them.
Anywho, Verkkokauppa.com is nice enough to let us know their recent sales and stock refills. For Xbox one, the five last sales are as follows (you can check the status by clicking the text "Viimeksi myyty"):
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl (= 3 days ago, 1 piece)
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
For PS4 the same list shows:
Tänään 09:14 1 kpl (= Today at 09.14 am, 1 piece)
Tänään 08:37 1 kpl
Tänään 07:16 1 kpl
Eilen 17:24 1 kpl (= Yesterday 5:24 pm, 1 piece)
Eilen 14:39 1 kpl
Then about the restocking. For Xbox One we see ("Viimeksi saapuneet"):
5 päivää sitten 6 kpl (= 5 days ago, 6 pieces)
14 päivää sitten 1 kpl
18 päivää sitten 1 kpl
19 päivää sitten 1 kpl
20 päivää sitten 2 kpl
And PS4:
7 päivää sitten 2 kpl
11 päivää sitten 1 kpl
11 päivää sitten yli 25 kpl (= 11 days ago, more than 25 pieces)
11 päivää sitten 20 kpl
11 päivää sitten yli 25 kpl
There is really reason to own an Xbox One over PS4 in Finland, since the media services are not available here and voice commands are not supported, and it shows. I would imagine that the situation is very similar in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Probably also in Netherlands and most other Western European tier 2 countries.
This is more of a pummeling than competition.
Vallen Chaos Valiant
Banned
Or the fact that many Hollywood blockbusters don't even premiere in the United States first anymore.
serversurfer
Member
The PS4 console itself has been selling at profit in all regions since at least May, 2014. At launch, it was "profitable with the initial average purchase."
GarciaHotspur
Member
Do you think MS will one day tell us the sold through number ?
i'm tired to hear the the shipped numbers --'
i'm tired to hear the the shipped numbers --'
serversurfer
Member
MS haven't talked about sell through since the end of 2013, when they were at 3M.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
I wouldn't be surprised if their shareholders were asking exactly the same question.
I don't think their shareholders care all that much.
1st Course
Member
Why would they? MS make money from shipped units regardless of sell-through. Reporting shipped numbers only is also nothing out of ordinary, it is actually the norm. Apple, GM, Lenovo, and even Sony themselves just report shipped numbers in their official financials.
Aquamarine
Member
they really don't....trust me on that
investors rarely bring up xbox-related questions at shareholder meetings. it's such a small segment of microsoft's overall business
michaelius
Banned
In the long run you can't hide behind shipment numbers because overshipping in one quarter will lead to smaller shipments in next one.
Gamezone
Gold Member
Not while Sony is dominating them. They are probably afraid that the real numbers makes them look weak.
redfirm
Banned
Slim ps4 leaked. has this been posted yet ?
http://www.nu.nl/games/3979727/fotos-compactere-playstation-4-slim-gelekt.html#playstation-4-slim-2
http://www.nu.nl/games/3979727/fotos-compactere-playstation-4-slim-gelekt.html#playstation-4-slim-2
Killroyskbg
Member
Slim ps4 leaked. has this been posted yet ?
http://www.nu.nl/games/3979727/fotos-compactere-playstation-4-slim-gelekt.html#playstation-4-slim-2
Yes and it is not leaked its just a rumor. Could me a photoshop job by some kid.
Recall what I wrote:
I am pretty sure that AMD is not involved in manufacturing and sale of Xenos/Xenon. They only license their IP (and services) and the whole thing at least used to be fabbed by IBM and sold directly to Microsoft.
With the APUs this is a different matter as others have already pointed out. The x86 license is non-transferable IIRC.
This is true. PS4 is selling loads more than the X1.
Also on the TOP10 list of the best selling game items, there hasn't been any X1 consoles/games in a long while. 6 out of 10 best selling items are PS4 consoles, games or accessories. 2 out of 10 are PS3 console or accessory and 2 out of 10 are something that is given free with a purchase of something else (download coupon and a Logitech Powershell).
List in popularity order:
http://www.verkkokauppa.com/fi/search?c=24a&s=popularity&o=A
PS4 is #2 and X1 is #12. The next X1 related item is the controller at #24. The X1 is also a bit cheaper and has been for a long while. At least since the official launch. The PS4's price was 450€ for a long time also.
I thought Sony made $18 off every ps4 sold?
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Raw costs of the console were sub 400 dollars, but then you have to add in things like shipping and warehousing on top of that, between all the various expenditures it takes to move your product from a factory to a store PS4 was selling at slight loss at launch.
Boy, I really wish the PS4 Slim was this small...Slim ps4 leaked. has this been posted yet ?
http://www.nu.nl/games/3979727/fotos-compactere-playstation-4-slim-gelekt.html#playstation-4-slim-2
It might work like that. I know AMD re-negotiated their cross license deal because they wanted to sell their fabs and with the deal they had it would have meant they lost their license to manufacture x86 CPUs. I think Intel agreed to it because a) they did not want to lose AMD and become a full fledged monoply, b) AMD were taking them to court over anti-competitive practices around the time of the P4 and the Athlon 64 and c) Intel use AMD x64 technology so if the cross licensing deal were to not be renewed it would screw Intel just as much as AMD and since Intel are bigger they have more to lose.
How the deal is currently structured though I have no clue of so it might be that AMD have to place the order for any x86 part with the foundry of their choosing or perhaps they can let their customers do it as long as AMD designed the module.
Well I did say over 4 million for Xbox 360. But not by much, certainly won't be over 4.5 million unless 360 suddenly did amazing.
I would say that yes, between 3.4-3.6m Xbox One's have already been shipped in 2014 but I do believe that you are really underestimating Q4. Just the US and UK alone will probably take Q4 shipments to over 2.5m in order to adequately supply those regions, and that's really without additional stock for Q1 2015 so i'd say 2.5m is a minimum, add in the other 40 markets as well as consider the standard Q4 bump and I'd say over 4 million (or close to 4 million) is a certainty.
I agree a lot more with this in terms of Q1-3 shipments for 360 and X1. I'm going to wait till we see the actual figure today but 6 million does sound about right and I would fully expect the split to be as you've mentioned above.
I think you're really underestimating Q4. It's without a doubt going to be more than we expect (in terms of more than double Q1-Q3 shipments) and it's due to the price cut in the USA and bundles in the UK + additional availability worldwide. Sales increase in every region, even if it's a dead region. And we already have reports of retailers outside US+UK saying they have too much stock to move so it's clear that MS have been shipping to these regions in quite a number as well.
11 million shipped will happen in 2014. I'm sure of it. Especially as Microsoft seemed to confirm 10m in December.
I agree with this. Along with the price cut for this year I'd easily expect more than 3.5m units sold in. Over 4 million? possibly. It could happen.
My original prediction I made in January last year was ~3.7m units and total shipped for the year prediction was 11.7m units. I'm confident that this prediction is higher than what the actual results will yield as Q2 shipments were very low. However I don't think shipments will be much lower and will certainly, in my books at least match or exceed 11 million.
Hopefully the results from MS will give us a clearer picture.
Here is my original prediction if you're interested. I made this back in Jan 2014 and the only thing I changed was bumping up the PS4 prediction once Sony release their shipped figure of 4.5m for Q4 2013.
I'd say it's a pretty good prediction but I really overestimated Xbox One sales for Q2 2014 and underestimated PS4 sales overall.
In fairness, even when MS was beating Sony in the US they would still only post shipping numbers if I remember right.
The Artisan
Member
We don't know that yet. It is somewhat convincing.
It's a fake, mate, there's no room in this design for proper APU cooling.
serversurfer
Member
Oh, you actually said, "Xbox One," but XB2 makes a lot more sense. lol
I like how when I come up with a "Should be this, give or take," you always seem to say, "Yes, that will be the absolute minimum."
Perhaps, but I think you guys are overestimating T2. As I conceded, I may be mistaken to do so with Microsoft, but I'm mostly just looking at demand here. Shipments were running 850k/quarter in T1. For the T2 launch, they pumped out an additional 850k. Yes, there are 28 countries in T2, but they're all much smaller than Spain, where they sold ~25k at launch, and probably like 35k over the following year. So given the size of these markets and XB3's demand in the non-English world, how long do you think it would take them to burn through their launch shipment of 850k? Remember that the launches didn't even take place until September, so it's not like they even had a full month to burn through stock, much less a full quarter. Even if all 28 countries moved 25k at launch just like Spain, that's only 700k, and even that seems like a wildly optimistic result. If demand was as strong as Spain, why postpone the planned launches? Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if most of those launch units were still unsold to this day.
So to me, it seems unrealistic to add in that 850k before you start multiplying out to estimate the holiday boost. It seems quite unlikely those countries burned through 850k in a month, and then turned around and ordered another 850k by Christmas. That's why I don't think the baseline, pre-holiday demand was 1.2+0.5+1.7=3.4M, but rather 0.85*3=2.55M, plus maybe a couple hundred thousand from T2. See what I'm trying to say?
But like I said, it's MS. They could've shipped 4.5M this quarter. I just don't see where they could've sold them.
Oh.... sorry. My apologies, I did mean Xbox 360 as over 4 million, but under 4.5 million.
I like how when I come up with a "Should be this, give or take," you always seem to say, "Yes, that will be the absolute minimum."
Haha, because I think 3.4m will be the minimum. We know shipments in Q1 was 1.2m. Q2 was a lot lower but Q3 would have been boosted due to T2 launches + upcoming demand in T1.
All in all I'd place shipments for X1 around ~7.4m cumulative by Sep 30th 2014.
Can you clarify where your 850k number comes from? I haven't heard this before?
And yes, I agree that 4.5m would be very high for X1 in Q4.
IndoAssassin
Banned
Are you guys factoring in the possibility that a few of T2 countries were importing consoles from Germany? So once X1 was released in these T2 countries, Germany would have taken a slight hit in sales?
The Artisan
Member
Would you mind explaining to me what exactly the controversy behind Germany is
IndoAssassin
Banned
No controversy, just T2 countries slightly adding to Germany's sales before the console released in those countries.
Tbh imports happen everywhere for everything. Whilst they do need to be taken into consideration they can ultimately be ignored as it factors in naturally. They still count as sales overall in the respective country and we know that German sales for X1 was 100k as 12/2013 and 270k as of 11/2014.
The Artisan
Member
what's the Ps4:Xbone sales ratio there?
The Artisan
Member
that's pretty much 4 to 1. PlayStation: 4, Xbox: 1.
Well, at least it is not nearly as bad as Japan.
serversurfer
Member
Well, yeah. We got to 3.4M for XB3 by looking at XB2 drops of roughly 40% and applying that to the mystery shipments. Since 40% is an estimate based on observed drops, it's safe to assume it won't be exactly 40%, and could instead be a bit more or less. So it would be "3.4M XB3, give or take." Except you don't give; you just take. So instead of taking our baseline estimate of 3.4M and saying 3.3-3.5M or even 3.2-3.6M, you instead say 3.4-3.6M, effectively tacking another 100k on to our baseline. So you're taking our best guess based on available data, and then padding it based on your optimism for their performance.
Sorry, sure. In Q1, MS shipped 1.2M, but told us they over-shipped and would be correcting in Q2. In Q2, they shipped 500k*, giving them a total of 1.7M shipped in the first half of the year. This is pre-T2, so it gives us a good idea of the overall demand in T1; 850k/quarter. If we assume T1 had similar demand in Q3, that would be another 850k for them, but they actually shipped 1.7M, which would seem to imply a shipment of 850k for the T2 launch, because we know T1 only needed 850k based on what they'd been ordering in the first half of the year.
Now, shipments do seem to go up a bit on their own in Q3, so that needs to be taken in to consideration as well. Sony averaged 2.85M/Q in the first half, making their 3.3M in Q3 a 16% increase. If we apply the same increase to XB3's T1 demand, we get 984k, still leaving 716k being shipped to T2 in Q3, which is still about as much as 28 Spanish launch-holidays combined.
See where I'm coming from? It seems unlikely T2 burned through more than 700k units in September and then went on to place an even bigger order in Q4. They're probably still mostly working on that 700k, even now.
Well no, I'm taking my own guesses and comparing them to yours. My estimates have always been slightly higher than what you post. It's not optimism haha, it's me and my calculations!
Have you seen this thread?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=979892
6.6m cumulative shipments.
So I have calculated X1 will be between 4.1m-4.6m.
That takes us to 11.5m-12.0m sold in.
The Artisan
Member
I thought that was supposed to be too optimistic.
EDIT: sold in means shipped, correct?
The Artisan
Member
OK. and realistically/typically, how much lower is sold-through numbers than sold-in?
Only if you don't understand anything about electronics.