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[IAmRandom31]

I know that they're expecting DQ to be big for them. The week that the DQ PS4 was released sales went from 15k to 68. And that's just for a system with a download code for Heroes. That game isn't being released for another month. So, it was two months away at that point and it still caused a huge sales spike.

yeah and Type 0 HD with the FFXV demo and Bloodborne will be releasing within a generally short timeframe. March will be a healthy month I think

 

[truth411]

ah. well as dead the xbone is, the Ps4 isn't that far behind either, eh?

I'm guessing this is because they're selling at a loss with the $349 price tag, and only want to do so in the region they can gain ground in.

By now even at $349 I doubt MS is selling the X1 at a loss, since there not bundling any games I bet there making a small profit.

 

[RexNovis]

I know that they're expecting DQ to be big for them. The week that the DQ PS4 was released sales went from 15k to 68. And that's just for a system with a download code for Heroes. That game isn't being released for another month. So, it was two months away at that point and it still caused a huge sales spike.

True but it doesnt strike me as a game with any sort of legs. There will undoubtedly be a temporary boost to sales because it says Dragon Quest on the box but I doubt it will increase weekly sales in the long term. I could, of course, be completely wrong. Only time will tell.

 

[The Artisan]

Nah I seriously doubt that would happen. They have to have a presence in Japan in order to be perceived as a competitor regardless of it's profitability. If MS pulls out of Japan they risk tainting consumer confidence in their brand across other regions. That said I doubt there will be any substantial advertising or marketing push for the system and they will likely maintain the absolute minimum shipments.

but it is embarrassing how bad they are performing though... if that's how they were performing worldwide, it'd be like their worst fucking nightmare.

they probably won't be shipping very many xbones there. or will they?

Honestly, I'm not sure but what I can say for sure is that pretty much every single student of mine that has already purchased a PS4 has also purchased CoD and plays regularly. My students know I'm a gamer so they often come to talk to me about games and get some English conversation practice in. Just from those conversations it definitely seems like the CoD crowd are the early adopters in my area.

ah, that's pretty cool. are you an english professor over there?

Think last week it was like 14,000 PS4's vs. 300 X1's, something like that

X1 truly is dead. Selling like a vita TV or a 10 year old system or something ... worse then even that really.

Holy moley. I really did not realize it was that bad. You sure you ain't exaggerating? lol

Like I said, I would not be surprised if mS pulls out of Japan completely and shuts down support there.

 

[Welfare]

Sure, I'll buy that. 4M in Q4 seems kinda optimistic though. That's a fairly significant increase over their Q1-3 numbers. By comparison, we're probably looking for Sony to ship maybe 6.5M to hit 20M LTD? That would make Sony's Q4 only 72% of Q1-3, but you're calling for MS to do 118%.

Also keep in mind that XB3 got a fairly significant bump in Q3 thanks to the Tier 2 launch. I don't think many of those launches were likely to be sellouts, nor did I hear anything about those markets being subject to the outbreak of Discount Fever which swept the US and UK.

The 1.7M they shipped in Q3 for the T2 launch was 40% larger than their Q1 shipment, which was an over-shipment itself. If we average in the drawdown which took place in Q2, their average quarterly shipments had been 850k, and the Q3 shipment doubled that. Sony's Q3 was only 116% of their Q1-2 average. I don't think T2 gave MS quite as much momentum as you may think. Warehousing is probably relatively cheap there though.

So yeah, 4M in Q4 seems like a lot given the year they had leading up to it. Even taking in to account the T2 launch bump, I could probably see them doubling their Jan-Sep numbers and doing another 3.4M. That's not a ridiculous number in and of itself, so I could see MS moving that many. That would give them 6.8M on the year and 10.7M LTD. That will let them hang on to "outpacing the 360," so I don't see much need for them to push through much more than that. Anything extra they ship in Q4 is just going to come out of the Q1/Q2 shipments anyway. I'm sure they'll do at least 10.5M LTD, if only for the 360 thing, but I don't seem them doing more than 11M, given their seemingly slow year. Yeah, yeah, big turn-around, but only in 50% of 40% of the market, remember?

While yes, 4 million might be optimistic, and 3.4m isn't out of the question, when you look at the 360 at a similar point in time (2006), MS shipped 4.5m units between Q1 and Q3 of CY 2006. They then shipped an additional 4.4m in Q4 of that same year. So they basically shipped the same amount of units in Q4 of CY 2006 as they did in Q1-3 in CY 2006.

Now using that, 3.4m in Q4 CY 2014 for the Xbox One looks really good. Q1-3 of CY 2014, from what we have both seem to agree on, is around 3.4m, so looking at 2006, another 3.4m in Q4 is doable.

But looking at 2006 might be doing it wrong, because the 360 was all by itself that year until Q4 with the launch of the Wii and PS3, and the PS3 was even out worldwide until early 2007.

So looking at 2007 when the 360 had competition, MS shipped 3.0m units in Q1-3 of CY 2007, but then shipped 4.3m units in Q4, +43% from the previous 3 Q's combined.

Comparing that increase to the one I proposed, 3.4m combined from Q1-3 in CY 2014 to 4.0m in Q4 CY 2014, that's an increase of only 18%.

Actually, I'm going to do this for every year of the 360.

2006 Q1+2+3: 4.5m | 2006 Q4: 4.4m (-2%)
2007 Q1+2+3: 3.0m | 2007 Q4: 4.3m (+43%)
2008 Q1+2+3: 4.8m | 2008 Q4: 6.0m (+25%)
2009 Q1+2+3: 5.0m | 2009 Q4: 5.2m (+4%)
2010 Q1+2+3: 5.8m | 2010 Q4: 6.3m (+9%)
2011 Q1+2+3: 6.7m | 2011 Q4: 8.2m (+22%)
2012 Q1+2+3: 4.2m | 2012 Q4: 5.9m (+41%)
2013 Q1+2+3: 3.5m | 2013 Q4: 3.5m (+0%)
*2014 Q1+2+3: 2.1m | 2014 Q4: 2.1m (+0%)
*

Spoiler

estimate and I'm going to use your 2.1m

So besides 2006, 2013, and 2014, the 360 has always seen an increase of shipments in Q4 compared to the other 3 combined. As an average, it's an increase of 15%. So Id say anywhere between 3.5m and 4m is what we should expect.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Jesus Christ, I know the Ps4 was doing better than the xbone but just knowing that consoles are dead in general I didn't think it would be doing THAT much better than the xbone. deadass

Yeah...its just that there's zero demand for XB1 in Japan at all. The console market there has shrunk significantly there, but the XB1 just has no audience outside of the fans who were holdovers from the 1 million eight hundred thousand people who had a 360 and were dedicated to the device

 

[The Artisan]

By now even at $349 I doubt MS is selling the X1 at a loss, since there not bundling any games I bet there making a small profit.

I don't think so. First they unbundled the Kinect which retailed for $150 but kept the xbone at $400. If they're selling it now at $350 it more than likely is at a loss, especially if it is just in the U.S and nowhere else.

Because, like... since the xbone is trailing behind the Ps4 worldwide at $400, they although they'd be losing $50 more if they cut the price everywhere, but if they aren't selling at a loss, then they would be making a profit, and potentially start catching up worldwide.

Yeah...its just that there's zero demand for XB1 in Japan at all. The console market there has shrunk significantly there, but the XB1 just has no audience outside of the fans who were holdovers from the 1 million eight hundred thousand people who had a 360 and were device

it has shrunk but if the Ps4 is still selling at the tens of thousands, there may still be hope. I think sony can call it a success if they eventually reach a million sold there.

 

[Nightengale]

PS4 has reached a million sold in Japan already.

The problem is that it's been muvh much slower to achieve that milestone compared to other successful consoles.

 

[RexNovis]

but it is embarrassing how bad they are performing though... if that's how they were performing worldwide, it'd be like their worst fucking nightmare.

they probably won't be shipping very many xbones there. or will they?

No they will likely be shipping as little as possible to the country but for the sake of their reputation and image worldwide they must maintain some kind of presence so theres almost no chance of them pulling out of the market entirely.

ah, that's pretty cool. are you an english professor over there?

Haha I wish. I am but a lowly Senior High School Language Teacher/Chorus Club Instructor.

Holy moley. I really did not realize it was that bad. You sure you ain't exaggerating? lol

Like I said, I would not be surprised if mS pulls out of Japan completely and shuts down support there.

Well as I explained above it's not a move tht will be seen kindly by the other makrets they are trying to sell their console. It's far better for them to quietly cut shipments back and maintain presence than to officially pull out of a major market and publicly admit defeat.

 

[IndoAssassin]

Didn't AMD just give rights to their technology usage? Doesn't Sony manufacture their own chips? Or did they give that up. I mean we know its a custom built APU, but who's doing the manufacturing of them. AMD or Sony? If its Sony, then AMD doesn't really have anything to do with the process beyond their architecture for the GPU portion of the APU

Considering the x86 cross license agreement with Intel, it is not possible unless Sony/MS sign a deal with Intel as well.

 

[spatenfloot]

Damn... that sounds pretty bad. Can you elaborate some more?

In the last reported week in Japan, PS4 sold 15000, Xbone sold 300. You do the math.

 

[IndoAssassin]

Nah I seriously doubt that would happen. They have to have a presence in Japan in order to be perceived as a competitor regardless of it's profitability. If MS pulls out of Japan they risk tainting consumer confidence in their brand across other regions. That said I doubt there will be any substantial advertising or marketing push for the system and they will likely maintain the absolute minimum shipments.

How many retail outlets are actually selling the X1 tho? MS may not pull out of Japan, but retailers may just stop ordering them. I mean if there are 100 stores selling them, that's 3 sales/week. 300 is only 1/week. What if there's 600 that's like half of them not selling any.

 

[The Artisan]

No they will likely be shipping as little as possible to the country but for the sake of their reputation and image worldwide they must maintain some kind of presence so theres almost no chance of them pulling out of the market entirely.

Well what's worse, selling embarrassingly low amounts of units weekly/monthly or pulling out of a region where no one wants you?

Haha I wish. I am but a lowly Senior High School Language Teacher/Chorus Club Instructor.

That's still pretty cool dude. At least you have a job. I'm tired of being unemployed, for this whole month since graduation.

I got a cousin & brother in law & nephew in Japan. Maybe I should convince them somehow to get a Ps4.

Well as I explained above it's not a move tht will be seen kindly by the other makrets they are trying to sell their console. It's far better for them to quietly cut shipments back and maintain presence than to officially pull out of a major market and publicly admit defeat.

Them being outsold that bad and selling that low in general, is arguably them already being defeated over there. One could even say they're wasting time and resources even bothering still trying.

In the last reported week in Japan, PS4 sold 15000, Xbone sold 300. You do the math.

I got the message. It's a 50:1 ratio, which is staggering to say the least.

 

[RexNovis]

How many retail outlets are actually selling the X1 tho? MS may not pull out of Japan, but retailers may just stop ordering them. I mean if there are 100 stores selling them, that's 3 sales/week. 300 is only 1/week. What if there's 600 that's like half of them not selling any.

Not many. As far as I know Yodabashi is the only major retail chain that sells the platform in every store nationwide. But I am not sure if that is a result of extraneous stock or some sort of retail deal with MS that insure stock levels across all their stores. Which is why I said they will likely cut back shipments as much as possible but they will maintain a presence, no matter how minuscule or weak it may be, in order to prevent degradation of consumer confidence in their brand in other territories.

 

[RexNovis]

Well what's worse, selling embarrassingly low amounts of units weekly/monthly or pulling out of a region where no one wants you?

That's still pretty cool dude. At least you have a job. I'm tired of being unemployed, for this whole month since graduation.

I got a cousin & brother in law & nephew in Japan. Maybe I should convince them somehow to get a Ps4.




Them being outsold that bad and selling that low in general, is arguably them already being defeated over there. One could even say they're wasting time and resources even bothering still trying.

I got the message. It's a 50:1 ratio, which is staggering to say the least.

I doubt MS are spending much if any at all on Japan given their complete lack of advertising or marketing of any sort since launch. Maintaining a bare minimum stock level is hardly going to break the bank and the possible lost sales and damage to their brand from pulling out of the market would far exceed whatever expense they endure maintaining a minimal presence in the market.

 

[Elandyll]

?????????????


The PS4 sells 5 to 6 times the amount of Xbones per week when the gap is closest in Japan. At the highest gap it sells 10 to 15 to even 20 times the amount. XB1 only sells about a 1000 each week compared to 5 to 10 thousand for PS4..and the PS4 number has been slowly creeping up so that its now in league with Vita and regular 3DS. This year i expect the number to get even higher

The last numbers in Japan are more like 15000 vs 300 weekly ... That's a 50:1 ratio.

What the XB is selling in Japan currently might as well be just replacement units and/or a consoles for Western gamers having a temp residence in Japan.
The jury is still out for the PS4, and will have to wait probably for March/ April after the release of several Japanese gamer friendly titles.
FFXV and MGS5 should also do good for Sony there.

But Xbox? It's all but dead.

 

[serversurfer]

Those pics are highly questionable, but I do foresee a $299 price point and some great holiday bundles this year. In typical Sony fashion, expect the Uncharted bundle to be $350 though

If Sony can hit $299, that alone will have people beating down the doors on Black Friday. No need to give away free games on top of that.

Speaking of free games, if Sony do manage to hit $299, where do we think MS go from there? They were already going toe-to-toe with the PS3 on pricing last year as it was.

So looking at 2007 when the 360 had competition, MS shipped 3.0m units in Q1-3 of CY 2007, but then shipped 4.3m units in Q4, +43% from the previous 3 Q's combined.

Keep in mind that XB2 was riding high at that point, and selling strongly worldwide. I'm not sure the same can be said of XB3. Also, take a look at the Q1 2008 shipment, to see if any stuffing may have occurred over the holidays. Actually, that's part of the reason Q1-3 2007 was so low; they over-shipped in Q4 2006, and hardly shipped any in Q1 2007, right?

Then again, I suppose this could be an argument for them over-shipping again and pushing through 4M in Q4. lol That said, I still think even a simple doubling will be a fairly big push for them, given that it's likely not much reordering took place in T2, especially given the size of their initial shipments there.

Plus, 850k per quarter before the T2 launch. That ain't much, man.

Actually, I'm going to do this for every year of the 360.

Do you have the PS3 and Wii numbers as well? What about XB1? XB3 seems to be on a more similar trajectory, given sales pace Edit: and US focus.

 

[The Artisan]

I doubt MS are spending much if any at all on Japan given their complete lack of advertising or marketing of any sort since launch. Maintaining a bare minimum stock level is hardly going to break the bank and the possible lost sales and damage to their brand from pulling out of the market would far exceed whatever expense they endure maintaining a minimal presence in the market.

Okay. So I guess all things considered, it doesn't hurt to just stay in a market even though no one wants you.

 

[truth411]

I don't think so. First they unbundled the Kinect which retailed for $150 but kept the xbone at $400. If they're selling it now at $350 it more than likely is at a loss, especially if it is just in the U.S and nowhere else.

Because, like... since the xbone is trailing behind the Ps4 worldwide at $400, they although they'd be losing $50 more if they cut the price everywhere, but if they aren't selling at a loss, then they would be making a profit, and potentially start catching up worldwide.


it has shrunk but if the Ps4 is still selling at the tens of thousands, there may still be hope. I think sony can call it a success if they eventually reach a million sold there.

Without Kinect the X1 should have a similar cost to the PS4. Kinect retail price of $150 is nowhere near its cost to make, it's called profit margin. I bet Kinect cost $70-75 at most. Heck I remember when MS was selling 20GB hdd for $100 for the 360 back in the days lol, stuff like that made the PS3 my primary console last gen.

 

[The Artisan]

Without Kinect the X1 should have a similar cost to the PS4. Kinect retail price of $150 is nowhere near its cost to make, it's called profit margin. I bet Kinect cost $70-75 at most. Heck I remember when MS was selling 20GB hdd for $100 for the 360 back in the days lol, stuff like that made the PS3 my primary console last gen.

so you're saying then the $350 price point is still them selling at profit. then the rest of my post still stands. it wouldn't be a terrible idea for them to do that price point worldwide.

 

[Biker19]

but it is embarrassing how bad they are performing though... if that's how they were performing worldwide, it'd be like their worst fucking nightmare.

TBH, it's not that much better outside of Japan, either. It's on life support in Europe. Even Xbox One got outsold by PS4 for November &/or December in the UK.

Only America is keeping the console afloat.

 

[Nightengale]

so you're saying then the $350 price point is still them selling at profit. then the rest of my post still stands. it wouldn't be a terrible idea for them to do that price point worldwide.

350 with two third party games probably isn't though.

 

[truth411]

so you're saying then the $350 price point is still them selling at profit. then the rest of my post still stands. it wouldn't be a terrible idea for them to do that price point worldwide.

Not quite, no matter the price point MS is pretty much dead in the water outside of the US. The console itself is too US centric, it's main feature they were bragging about Hdmi input for cable boxes is pointless outside of America. Even if they did drop the price outside of the US/UK it wouldn't help them.

 

[Aquamarine]

TBH, it's not that much better outside of Japan, either. Even Xbox One got outsold by PS4 for November &/or December in the UK.

Only America is keeping the console afloat.

japan's 14000 ps4 vs. 300 xb1 weekly comparison is ridiculous and doesn't reflect the larger global market

it's an outlier....japan has always hated xbox.

sure, the xbox one is lagging in various european countries, but that doesn't mean the ecosystem is dead outside of the usa, either.

 

[The Artisan]

TBH, it's not that much better outside of Japan, either. It's on life support in Europe. Even Xbox One got outsold by PS4 for November &/or December in the UK.

Only America is keeping the console afloat.

Well isn't that because black friday is only a north american thing?

350 with two third party games probably isn't though.

Is that what they're doing in the U.S? 349 + 2 games?

well then yeah, they could just do that in the U.S, and just 349 with no games worldwide.

 

[RexNovis]

japan's 14000 ps4 vs. 300 xb1 weekly comparison is ridiculous and doesn't reflect the larger global market

it's an outlier....japan has always hated xbox.

sure, the xbox one is lagging in various european countries, but that doesn't mean the ecosystem is dead outside of the usa, either.

I think it's fair to call it anemic outside the UK especially when you are talking ratios in comparison to PS4 sales. While not entirely dead (like Japan) its certainly not selling anywhere remotely close to well outside of US and UK. Spain and Germany are pretty much testaments to that.

 

[serversurfer]

Without Kinect the X1 should have a similar cost to the PS4. Kinect retail price of $150 is nowhere near its cost to make, it's called profit margin. I bet Kinect cost $70-75 at most.

Actually, the XBone just costs more to build than the PS4, primarily due to the external power supply and larger APU. But overall, it's just larger and more expensive to assemble and ship. Plus, while prices on GDDR5 have been going down, prices on DDR3 have been going up. You're right about Kinect; iSupply pegged it just under $75 to build, so the $100 price cut actually represented a loss for them as well.

But yeah, even at the same price point — say, $399 with no games — Sony are in better shape financially. Everything MS do to add value — $350, free games, etc. — just make the situation even worse for them.

That's why I was asking where MS go once Sony hit $299. Bundle four games at $299 instead of two games at $349?

 

[The Artisan]

japan's 14000 ps4 vs. 300 xb1 weekly comparison is ridiculous and doesn't reflect the larger global market

it's an outlier....japan has always hated xbox.

sure, the xbox one is lagging in various european countries, but that doesn't mean the ecosystem is dead outside of the usa, either.

Y'know, I do remember last gen there was this one streak of weeks where the 360 was consistently outselling the Ps3 in Japan, and everyone was surprised and laughing about it.

I think it's fair to call it anemic outside the UK especially when you are talking ratios in comparison to PS4 sales. While not entirely dead (like Japan) its certainly not selling anywhere remotely close to well outside of US and UK. Spain and Germany are pretty much testaments to that.

And this is why the winner in the U.S is vital to the overall winner of this gen, correct?

 

[dano1]

I would guess it's 20 million by now!

 

[The Artisan]

I would guess it's 20 million by now!

...maybe when the order releases. but like someone else said, we probably won't get an official number again till like e3.

 

[Biker19]

And this is why the winner in the U.S is vital to the overall winner of this gen, correct?

Worldwide numbers are far more important than just winning U.S. numbers, especially to small & mid-tier 3rd party publishers & indie publishers.

 

[RexNovis]

Actually, the XBone just costs more to build than the PS4, primarily due to the external power supply and larger APU. But overall, it's just larger and more expensive to assemble and ship. Plus, while prices on GDDR5 have been going down, prices on DDR3 have been going up. You're right about Kinect; iSupply pegged it just under $75 to build, so the $100 price cut actually represented a loss for them as well.

But yeah, even at the same price point — say, $399 with no games — Sony are in better shape financially. Everything MS do to add value — $350, free games, etc. — just make the situation even worse for them.

That's why I was asking where MS go once Sony hit $299. Bundle four games at $299 instead of two games at $349?

Personally I Have serious doubts about how willing MS will be to continue to heavily subsidizing the cost of their platform. It's hard to imagine them doing anything remotely close to $70 discount + 2 games + $50 gift card we saw this holiday season though. I'm sure they regarded this holiday season as the all or nothing watershed moment for their console in the main market and I don't see such importance being levied again anytime soon. I can't imagine that was an easy pill for them to swallow. But then again I never imagined they'd be dropping back to $350 again so soon and perhaps with the advent of Windows 10 it's worth it for them to get market infiltration into that ecosystem. Hell they could even try to do the monthly installment plan again. So, really, who knows? Anything is possible at this point.

 

[The Artisan]

Worldwide numbers are far more important than just winning U.S. numbers, especially to small & mid-tier 3rd party publishers & indie publishers.

In the bigger picture of things, yes. But analyzing this in a population density state of mind, the U.S is probably the most important market because it is where you're most likely to see other people owning a console most often.

 

[spatenfloot]

And this is why the winner in the U.S is vital to the overall winner of this gen, correct?

No, Microsoft could win in the US and still lose badly worldwide. Sony is fine either way.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Personally I Have serious doubts about how willing MS will be to continue to heavily subsidizing the cost of their platform. It's hard to imagine them doing anything remotely close to $70 discount + 2 games + $50 gift card we saw this holiday season though. I'm sure they regarded this holiday season as the all or nothing watershed moment for their console in the main market and I don't see such importance being levied again anytime soon. I can't imagine that was an easy pill for them to swallow. But then again I never imagined they'd be dropping back to $350 again so soon and perhaps with the advent of Windows 10 it's worth it for them to get market infiltration into that ecosystem. Hell they could even try to do the monthly installment plan again. So, really, who knows? Anything is possible at this point.

MS will continue to subsidize. Their "exclusive" lineup for Fall 2015 is just another indication to that. Putting AAA games so close to each other, like 3-4 = 1 or 2 are bound to flop. 2014 strategy looking like 2015. Media/hype frenzy for the fall coupled with some sort of promotion/price drop to maximize holiday sales. The casuals bite on the hardware but the software?

 

[The Artisan]

MS will continue to subsidize. Their "exclusive" lineup for Fall 2015 is just another indication to that. Putting AAA games so close to each other, like 3-4 = 1 or 2 are bound to flop.

there aren't any official release dates for their exclusive games. all I can fathom as of now is that rotr and halo 5 will release in Q4.

 

[Welfare]

Keep in mind that XB2 was riding high at that point, and selling strongly worldwide. I'm not sure the same can be said of XB3. Also, take a look at the Q1 2008 shipment, to see if any stuffing may have occurred over the holidays. Actually, that's part of the reason Q1-3 2007 was so low; they over-shipped in Q4 2006, and hardly shipped any in Q1 2007, right?

Q4 CY 2006: 4.4m
Q1 CY 2007: 500k
Q2 CY 2007: 700k
Q3 CY 2007: 1.8m

Q4 CY 2007: 4.3m
Q1 CY 2008: 1.3m
Q2 CY 2008: 1.3m
Q3 CY 2008: 2.2m

Xbox One

Q4 CY 2013: 3.9m
Q1 CY 2014: 1.2m
Q2 CY 2014: 500k*
Q3 CY 2014: 1.7m*

Actually, looking at the Xbox One 2014 vs 360 2007, that looks very similar.

Then again, I suppose this could be an argument for them over-shipping again and pushing through 4M in Q4. lol That said, I still think even a simple doubling will be a fairly big push for them, given that it's likely not much reordering took place in T2, especially given the size of their initial shipments there.

MS always doubled their Q3 numbers in Q4 with the 360. Also they did ship new AC, CoD, and White bundles.

Plus, 850k per quarter before the T2 launch. That ain't much, man.

MS shipped 1.2m 360's in Q1+2 CY 2007 combined before shipping 1.8m in Q3, and then proceeded to ship 4.3m in Q4 of CY 2007.

Do you have the PS3 and Wii numbers as well? What about XB1? XB3 seems to be on a more similar trajectory, given sales pace and

I'd have to dig for Wii, and I'm sure PS3 is an impossibility because of combining it with the PS2. I don't know about the XB1, as from what I could find, MS didn't really give shipment numbers for it, but revenue, so that's out.

 

[The Artisan]

No, Microsoft could win in the US and still lose badly worldwide. Sony is fine either way.

okay, but I suggested in the post above you that analyzing this in a population density state of mind, the U.S is probably the most important market because it is where you're most likely to see other people owning a console most often. meaning it is the region where you're most likely to see other people owning consoles.

 

[GnawtyDog]

there aren't any official release dates for their exclusive games. all I can fathom as of now is that rotr and halo 5 will release in Q4.

FM5, QB and Fable Legends somewhere after E3? Too close to each other. Plus the Gears collection and the third party draws like COD that Xbox Owners love? EA's Battlefront, Ubisoft Assassins Creed, plus whatever Take Two has lined up. Yeah disposable income will be extremely stretched out. More so when you consider the games that are coming out this year before Fall. If any of the first party exclusives get low review scores = an almost guaranteed flop.

 

[The Artisan]

FM5, QB and Fable Legends somewhere after E3? Too close to each other.

they could release some time in the summer.

the order and bloodborne were both supposed to release in the same month as well. i dunno about this subsidization convo you're having with the other guy but I think it's a good thing one of them was delayed.

 

[Welfare]

FM5, QB and Fable Legends somewhere after E3? Too close to each other. Plus the Gears collection and the third party draws like COD that Xbox Owners love? Yeah disposable income will be extremely stretched out. More so when you consider the games that are coming out this year before Fall.

FM6, Quantum Break, and Fable Legends are probably Q3 games.

Oh yeah, MS is releasing their Q2 results in 17 hours.

 

[Biker19]

In the bigger picture of things, yes. But analyzing this in a population density state of mind, the U.S is probably the most important market because it is where you're most likely to see other people owning a console most often.

I say this because of what I mentioned earlier:

Link.

Worldwide sales matters more because they give an even higher install base to a certain platform, & not only that, but could lead to most PS4 versions of games being the lead platform (don't have to worry about Japanese 3rd party games, because Japanese 3rd party publishers always make their games the lead platform for PS4 anyway), &/or to just make certain games PS4 exclusive flat out.

 

[The Artisan]

I say this because of what I mentioned earlier:

Link.

Worldwide sales matters more because they give an even higher install base to a certain platform, & not only that, but could lead to most PS4 versions of games being the lead platform (don't have to worry about Japanese 3rd party games, because Japanese 3rd party publishers always make their games the lead platform for PS4 anyway), &/or to just make certain games PS4 exclusive flat out.

Okay. I don't know how money is made in the gaming industry but I'll make a comparison. In the film industry, studios concentrate mostly on domestic box offices, because in the worldwide BOs, they make back only half of the revenue.

I don't know what the circumstances are here, but I suspect that sony needs most of their sales domestically, because they don't make as much profit worldwide. and this should go for developers as well.

I'm not disputing what was stated in your link though. it most definitely makes sense.

 

[GnawtyDog]

FM6, Quantum Break, and Fable Legends are probably Q3 games.

Oh yeah, MS is releasing their Q2 results in 17 hours.

FM6, correct. Hard to keep count. MS numbers tell hardly anything these days - other than overall health.

 

[samar11]

By now even at $349 I doubt MS is selling the X1 at a loss, since there not bundling any games I bet there making a small profit.

They are bundling it with the AC pack on amazon though

 

[The Artisan]

They are bundling it with the AC pack on amazon though

that could just be an amazon thing though.

I remember best buy selling the Ps4 with 2 dualshock 4s, a psplus membership and ghosts close to launch.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

PS4 has reached a million sold in Japan already.

The problem is that it's been muvh much slower to achieve that milestone compared to other successful consoles.

If i remember PS4 is not tracking that bad behind PS3 as of right now in Japan.
Still it's has been a while since i check so i could be wrong.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Didn't AMD just give rights to their technology usage? Doesn't Sony manufacture their own chips? Or did they give that up. I mean we know its a custom built APU, but who's doing the manufacturing of them. AMD or Sony? If its Sony, then AMD doesn't really have anything to do with the process beyond their architecture for the GPU portion of the APU

None of them actually do the manufacturing. AMD is fabless these days and Sony doesn't have a suitable foundry right now. Most of theirs are dedicated to image sensors. The actual chips can be made by TSMC, Global Foundries or any other suitable semiconductor manufacturing company. Due to the licensing issues AMD and Sony probably work together to decide who will make the chips, then Sony places an order through AMD who contracts the manufacturer.

Considering the x86 cross license agreement with Intel, it is not possible unless Sony/MS sign a deal with Intel as well.

And Intel has no interest in anything like that.

 

[serversurfer]

MS shipped 1.2m 360's in Q1+2 CY 2007 combined before shipping 1.8m in Q3, and then proceeded to ship 4.3m in Q4 of CY 2007.

Yeah, but again, worldwide demand was pretty strong for XB2. All indications are that XB3 isn't selling nearly as well in not-US compared to XB2. Not to harp, but Tier 2 is Tier 2 for a reason. The biggest markets in Tier 2 are previously-canceled launches, where MS looked at the pre-orders and decided to just focus on the really big markets like Spain, where they could move 30k-40k per year. I don't think those markets will deliver the same kind of holiday push the XB2 did.

Regardless, yeah, it's MS, so it's possible they pushed out 4M. Like I said, I'm just not really seeing the demand to support a shipment like that. 3.4M seems more reasonable, but again, anything is possible. I just think those "extra" units will come out of later shipments, much like the 1.2M they shipped in the first half of 2007 after shipping 4.4M in Q4 2006.

Don't MS post tomorrow or something? lol

 

[Welfare]

Don't MS post tomorrow or something? lol

Yes. 16 hours from now.

I think I'm done with this until then. We basically have a ballpark number for the Xbox One, and any more discussion will probably just be us going in circles.